EIU: Bangladesh to be second best performing economy in 2019

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Past all that I say here (BD growth tempering/reality), it is foolish if you take what I am saying to its extreme and say BD is not improving/performing better. I would say its definitely one of the top-performers given the circumstances it has inherited. I just argue about the scale of that transformation speed (so that BD members may eventually learn from it and take it up at some points relevantly with ppl they know that control some levers hopefully), rather than dispute its happening to begin with.

BTW, a certain BD (BAL-stronk) kid on this forum already said that US is not really with Hasina (many times)...and that US is pro-BNP etc etc (and thats why there are certain articles and statements about elections and geopolitics)...yet here you are saying the complete opposite lol. That kind of tells you Bengali ppl in BD (and I stress Bengali here, if you know significance of how they think and operate past their culture/stereotypes...should you have the experience of knowing any as friends in real life) are doing some effective smoke and mirrors of their own, to help them insulate/integrate appropriately as they see fit. You would do well to think on that.

@Joe Shearer @Atlas @Al-Ansar @Bengal71 @Mage

Hasina is a Western puppet. I think everyone knows that!!

 

[Nilgiri]

Hasina is a Western puppet. I think everyone knows that!!

Ok dude...sure....*pat pat*...have a cookie

 

[Nilgiri]

@UKBengali, how about me? Have I ever gone to the moderators even if your style is quite girlish all the time and you insult me? Anyway, who can win a quarrel with a girl?

LOL, like a little sister he has put an ignore spell on you. In Tamil (in family setting etc) we call it a "doo" (and you put two fingers up to start it while announcing it...after some fight/squabble as kids etc...and you can't talk till the doo is broken)....what is it called in Bengali?

 

[The Ronin]

what is it called in Bengali?

"Ari/Katti"

 

[Destranator]

LOL, like a little sister he has put an ignore spell on you. In Tamil (in family setting etc) we call it a "doo" (and you put two fingers up to start it while announcing it...after some fight/squabble as kids etc...and you can't talk till the doo is broken)....what is it called in Bengali?

Aari/আড়ি. As kids we used to often signal it by swiping the pinky finger on the person being subjected to the ex-comm.

"Ari/Katti"

Do kids say Katti these days? Damn.

 

[Nilgiri]

signal it by swiping the pinky finger on the person

Ah yes thinking back, this is also acceptable signal for it in the south too. I guess depends if its among juniors only or senior-junior (like with mom/dad etc) heh.

 

[Mage]

For example what is Vietnams energy consumption (given the huge importance of this as a 1st tier means of economic production/wealth) vs Bangladesh's and their respective growths? (even accounting for stage of economic development)? Can you tell me of the major banks with EM funds, how many have specific Bangladesh based ones (compared to say Vietnam)...and if composite EM fund...what % is BD as part of it?

I'll reply to this, after reading up a bit. Do you think BD's data will be more believable if business environment improves? Corruption index is not going to improve after elections like this anyway.

BTW mage I dont get why you are up so late or up so early (I just looked at the sweden time when you posted that)....either way

It's gonna be like this till March. I have some reasons.

 

[Nilgiri]

I'll reply to this, after reading up a bit. Do you think BD's data will be more believable if business environment improves? Corruption index is not going to improve after elections like this anyway.

Yes the more information streams (handled by different sets of hands) available to cross-correlate....the more credibility is fostered. You will notice uptick in the EM fund thing for example...quite naturally and organically....the professional ppl that run those are 1000 times hawk-eyed and have 1000 times higher vantage point I will ever have.

This is why for example polls done by wall street quarters (who actually poll neutrally quite brazenly but not for public consumption) put Trump as winning in 2016 election (or at least very close)....and we all know how the more unidimensional "MSM" polling (that all projected huge landslides for Hillary) turned out in comparison.

Govt corruption wise, well election is just one institution that rejuvenates/atrophies, waxes and wanes etc (with transparency/credibility)....plenty of others for BD govt to work on (even if it has stayed in power through corrupt means)...there are specific bureaucratic markers people surveyed will perceive and respond to....remember TI takes polling of BD people themselves (rather than any far removed perception sitting in different country etc). So dont automatically assume that CPI is lost cause just because of an election....there are many aspects to corruption that even a corrupt power usurping etc govt can work on and improve its perception among its people....and it is advantageous for all for it to do so. Again Deng XiaoPing ground reforms come to mind.

Also finally, there is little to no reason why BD as corrupt as its govt can be...should not work to reforming BBS and also moving towards adopting SDDS. There are some pretty high corruption countries with uni-power structures much like BD that use SDDS (Egypt is one example). Credibility in econometrics is fairly mutually exclusive with political credibility. Look no further than China for example (in last 3 decades or so).

It's gonna be like this till March. I have some reasons.

 

[Mage]

For example what is Vietnams energy consumption (given the huge importance of this as a 1st tier means of economic production/wealth) vs Bangladesh's and their respective growths?

I just looked through energy consumption data of some countries.
It's quite amusing. WB Data is available up to 2014.
I think with focus BD won't have much problems catching up there. Granted BD's per capita consumption of 2014 is coomparable to Pak or India's consumption of 1992. But then again, BD's per capita consumption back than was 58kwh...While India and Pakistan's were more than 300kwh. By 2014 BD's consumption raised like 6 times, rising to 310 kwh. Pakistan's consumption rose to 470 and India's consumption rose to 800+kwh. BD's low base helped, I know. But still the rise was 6 times. And electricity generation in BD also have increased substantially from 2014..I think the gap with Pakistan would be much lower in 2019. YOu can look at Vietnam. In 1992 it's per capita consumption was like 1/3 or India or Pakistan's. And in 2014, it is reaching twice of India's.

I guess we need more updated data to judge BD's performance. India's consumption is having a steep increase. But still India's consumption is like 1/5th of China, consuming what China was consuming 23 years ago. And Pakistan's consumption have decreased from 2006?.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicato...4&locations=BD-IN-PK-VN&start=1971&view=chart

Can you tell me of the major banks with EM funds, how many have specific Bangladesh based ones (compared to say Vietnam)...and if composite EM fund...what % is BD as part of it?

Emerging Market Funds, I guess? There are some for BD.

HSBC has one http://www.morningstarfunds.ie/ie/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=0P0000N6P9
I think FISCH and some other also have for BD..
Well, BD is not yet considered emerging market by some. I tried to google stuff regarding em fund and Bangladesh...but I don't understand half of what I read. Not my field at all. Btw, how is EM fund useful?

@Nilgiri you might find this interesting

https://www.agility.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Agility-Emerging-Markets-Logistics-Index-2018.pdf

 

[Viet]

Bangladesh's GDP is expected to grow by 7.9% this year, making it the second best performing economy in 2019, according to forecast data by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Earlier in a country report on Bangladesh, published on December 4, the EIU stated that Bangladesh's growth from the fiscal year 2018-19 to 2022-23 will be driven mainly by strong increases in private consumption and gross fixed investment.

The report further predicted that Bangladesh will experience a real GDP growth of 7.7% per year during the period, bolstered by increases in private consumption and investment.

The EIU forecasts that gross fixed investment and private consumption will grow by an average of 9.9% and 10.6% per year, respectively, in FY 2018-19 and FY 2022-23, up from the respective averages of 9.3% and 6.3% in the preceding five-year period.

Apart from Bangladesh, neighbouring India will again be the fastest-growing big economy, maintaining its estimated 2018 rate of 7.4%, reports the economist.

A continuation of the Sino-US trade war would suit some places: Vietnam, which offers an alternative to China as a manufacturing location, is forecast to expand by 6.7%. But the economy that is expected to perform best in 2019—Syria, with forecast growth of 9.9%—is a sobering reminder that a high number can reflect the worst of starting-points.

After Bangladesh, Bhutan is expected to grow by 7.4%, while Rwanda is expected to grow by 7.3%.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

The greater global picture, however, looks grim as the poor performance of stock markets last year maintained at the start of 2019.

This, according to The Economist, can be traced in part to growing worries about the state of the world economy, specifically the US and China.

According to the EIU, the US will grow by 2.3% in 2019—substantially lower than the estimated growth rate of 2.9% for the previous year—as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and the effects of last year’s tax cuts fade away.

China’s forecasted growth rate is much higher at 6.3%, but that is still lower than its estimated performance in 2018. Many fear it to be worse as a result of the trade war with America, and China’s campaign to control its debt.

Europe presents an even worse picture. Britain, which is due to leave the European Union in March, is forecasted to grow by only 1.5%. Although, France faces less uncertainty, it fares no better.

Italy, being a continuous economic disappointment, is expected grow by just 0.4%, making it the seventh-worst performer in the EIU’s forecasts. Countries below it are all forecast to contract in 2019.

Venezuela, which has been in freefall for years, is expected to perform the worst as its GDP is expected to fall by 5.7%, followed by war-torn Yemen at 4.2%, Iran at 3.7%, Equitorial Guinea at 2.5%, and Argentina at 0.8%.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/busine...K1cCDolJxeVpAxE8VH_oleR_bUE_lTgJT7w5dvta49IPY

Impressive figure

I just looked through energy consumption data of some countries.
It's quite amusing. WB Data is available up to 2014.
I think with focus BD won't have much problems catching up there. Granted BD's per capita consumption of 2014 is coomparable to Pak or India's consumption of 1992. But then again, BD's per capita consumption back than was 58kwh...While India and Pakistan's were more than 300kwh. By 2014 BD's consumption raised like 6 times, rising to 310 kwh. Pakistan's consumption rose to 470 and India's consumption rose to 800+kwh. BD's low base helped, I know. But still the rise was 6 times. And electricity generation in BD also have increased substantially from 2014..I think the gap with Pakistan would be much lower in 2019. YOu can look at Vietnam. In 1992 it's per capita consumption was like 1/3 or India or Pakistan's. And in 2014, it is reaching twice of India's.

I guess we need more updated data to judge BD's performance. India's consumption is having a steep increase. But still India's consumption is like 1/5th of China, consuming what China was consuming 23 years ago. And Pakistan's consumption have decreased from 2006?.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicato...4&locations=BD-IN-PK-VN&start=1971&view=chart


Emerging Market Funds, I guess? There are some for BD.

HSBC has one http://www.morningstarfunds.ie/ie/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=0P0000N6P9
I think FISCH and some other also have for BD..
Well, BD is not yet considered emerging market by some. I tried to google stuff regarding em fund and Bangladesh...but I don't understand half of what I read. Not my field at all. Btw, how is EM fund useful?

@Nilgiri you might find this interesting

https://www.agility.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Agility-Emerging-Markets-Logistics-Index-2018.pdf

Power consumption pretty much relates to standard of living or the standing of economy. Here some data. Per capita per year in kWh:
https://www.worlddata.info/asia/bangladesh/energy-consumption.php
Although I think we should take the data with care.

Japan: 7,364
Germany: 6,223
China: 4,270
Vietnam: 1,914
India: 783
Bangladesh: 297

 

[UKBengali]

Impressive figure


Power consumption pretty much relates to standard of living or the standing of economy. Here some data. Per capita per year in kWh:
https://www.worlddata.info/asia/bangladesh/energy-consumption.php
Although I think we should take the data with care.

Japan: 7,364
Germany: 6,223
China: 4,270
Vietnam: 1,914
India: 783
Bangladesh: 297

Think this is 2014 data. BD electricity consumption has gone up a lot in last 5 years.

 

[Nilgiri]

I just looked through energy consumption data of some countries.
It's quite amusing. WB Data is available up to 2014.
I think with focus BD won't have much problems catching up there. Granted BD's per capita consumption of 2014 is coomparable to Pak or India's consumption of 1992. But then again, BD's per capita consumption back than was 58kwh...While India and Pakistan's were more than 300kwh. By 2014 BD's consumption raised like 6 times, rising to 310 kwh. Pakistan's consumption rose to 470 and India's consumption rose to 800+kwh. BD's low base helped, I know. But still the rise was 6 times. And electricity generation in BD also have increased substantially from 2014..I think the gap with Pakistan would be much lower in 2019. YOu can look at Vietnam. In 1992 it's per capita consumption was like 1/3 or India or Pakistan's. And in 2014, it is reaching twice of India's.

Electricity is just one type of energy. I'm talking about total energy consumed (in all forms):

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=BD-IN-VN

@Viet

Emerging Market Funds, I guess? There are some for BD.

Yes but now compare the prevalence compared to other developing countries you say are peers for BD in some way. I didn't say it was zero for BD...just not very much as one would think so otherwise (by cherry picked media stuff).

Well, BD is not yet considered emerging market by some. I tried to google stuff regarding em fund and Bangladesh...but I don't understand half of what I read. Not my field at all. Btw, how is EM fund useful?

EM funds are useful as they are capital flow/equity pool (with overall balanced weight/speed compared to most FPI)....probably some of the best run FPI instruments out there (given all EMs are hedged with comprehensively). Similar kind of larger argument for FDI....it (quality FPI) is kind of a halfway route from FDI and loan-based investment....but really kind of flavour .

But the important thing is that people/groups (who matter) actually get experience with BD themselves...so naturally there is more interest that builds up in investment groups and banks. This is one of the reasons why BD is not listed in the economist weekly data appendix....there is a pretty large mismatch between the frontier narrative being pushed in some articles and the actual "bulking" in the hard economic networking.

you might find this interesting

Yep interesting read, thanks. I'll have a look over it in detail bit later.

 

[Viet]

Think this is 2014 data. BD electricity consumption has gone up a lot in last 5 years.

There is a law in Physics: what not go up will go down

Electricity is just one type of energy. I'm talking about total energy consumed (in all forms):

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=BD-IN-VN

@Viet



Yes but now compare the prevalence compared to other developing countries you say are peers for BD in some way. I didn't say it was zero for BD...just not very much as one would think so otherwise (by cherry picked media stuff).



EM funds are useful as they are capital flow/equity pool (with overall balanced weight/speed compared to most FPI)....probably some of the best run FPI instruments out there (given all EMs are hedged with comprehensively). Similar kind of larger argument for FDI....it (quality FPI) is kind of a halfway route from FDI and loan-based investment....but really kind of flavour .

But the important thing is that people/groups (who matter) actually get experience with BD themselves...so naturally there is more interest that builds up in investment groups and banks. This is one of the reasons why BD is not listed in the economist weekly data appendix....there is a pretty large mismatch between the frontier narrative being pushed in some articles and the actual "bulking" in the hard economic networking.



Yep interesting read, thanks. I'll have a look over it in detail bit later.

Ok that is another perspective. I can’t tell for India and Bangladesh but Vietnam tries everything to get industrialized as fast as possible, we will prove the Chinese are wrong when they say China is the last country that gets industrialized and developed.

 

[TopCat]

Ok that is another perspective. I can’t tell for India and Bangladesh but Vietnam tries everything to get industrialized as fast as possible, we will prove the Chinese are wrong when they say China is the last country that gets industrialized and developed.

Did they say that?
Being industrialize is far easier than being high income country like western europe. All eastern europe is industrialize, so is ASEAN.

 

[Viet]

Did they say that?
Being industrialize is far easier than being high income country like western europe. All eastern europe is industrialize, so is ASEAN.

Not that easy. Being industrialized and high income are correlated. Industrial nations typically have as little as 1 or 2 percent of all labor forces in agra sector. Vietnam 38 percent.we still have a long way to go. How about BD?

In the last 20 years or so, there were only two countries that achieved high income status: Poland and RoK. Poland because she gets some $10 billion per year from the EU or more precise from Germany. RoK because America transfers money and technology as thank you for her involvement in the Vietnam war.

In the fast 40 years China gains fast economic growth thanks to money influx from overseas Chinese from HK, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, etc.
Not to mention the money from America she received thanks to aggression war against Vietnam.

Vietnam has nothing starting from zero.

That is not only the reason why they believe Vietnam will remain poor forever so they can laugh all days long.