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Egypt, wheat and Ukraine

Will wheat shortage / price increase provocate a color revolution / regime change in Egypt?


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Even though it will take time for the Ukrainian ports to be cleared of mines, Turkiye's proposal is to create a mine-free security corridor in the region under the UN's recommendation, and for these merchant ships to cross the Black Sea with naval escort.

The fastest solution is to transport wheat directly from Russian ports in the Azov Sea. In this case, without a mine clearance activity, the wheat that will come out of the Russian ports can cross the Black Sea with the escort of the TN.

The road transport proposal of France and some EU institutions is definitely not a model that can work. The costs are multiplying at an incredible scale. Moreover, a supply density that will meet the demand cannot be created with this model.

For me, if we look at recent developments, grain problem is about to be solved. A tripartite mechanism was established between Ukraine, Russia and Turkiye. A staff member with the rank of general was appointed from the defense ministries of these countries, also the hotline line was created for this purposes. Recent studies are being carried out on a model in which Turkiye is responsible in matters that both sides have reservations about.

Vassily Nebenzia, Russia's Ambassador to the United Nations, said his country could provide "safe passage" for grain from Ukraine to be transported across the Black Sea. "But it's not our responsibility to create a safety corridor," Nebenzia said.

In other words, the Russian side does not have a negative view on the exit of the grain if the demining activity is carried out with a suitable mechanism. Of course, this mechanism should also include confidence-building measures that will remove the obstacles to Russia's own grain export.

In short, I believe that with the resumption of supply chains, the Egyptian people will reduce this risk to a controllable level in the coming months.
 
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Even though it will take time for the Ukrainian ports to be cleared of mines, Turkiye's proposal is to create a mine-free security corridor in the region under the UN's recommendation, and for these merchant ships to cross the Black Sea with naval escort.

The fastest solution is to transport wheat directly from Russian ports in the Azov Sea. In this case, without a mine clearance activity, the wheat that will come out of the Russian ports can cross the Black Sea with the escort of the TN.

The road transport proposal of France and some EU institutions is definitely not a model that can work. The costs are multiplying at an incredible scale. Moreover, a supply density that will meet the demand cannot be created with this model.

For me, if we look at recent developments, grain problem is about to be solved. A tripartite mechanism was established between Ukraine, Russia and Turkiye. A staff member with the rank of general was appointed from the defense ministries of these countries, also the hotline line was created for this purposes. Recent studies are being carried out on a model in which Turkiye is responsible in matters that both sides have reservations about.

Vassily Nebenzia, Russia's Ambassador to the United Nations, said his country could provide "safe passage" for grain from Ukraine to be transported across the Black Sea. "But it's not our responsibility to create a safety corridor," Nebenzia said.

In other words, the Russian side does not have a negative view on the exit of the grain if the demining activity is carried out with a suitable mechanism. Of course, this mechanism should also include confidence-building measures that will remove the obstacles to Russia's own grain export.

In short, I believe that with the resumption of supply chains, the Egyptian people will reduce this risk to a controllable level in the coming months.

But even without blockade, the Ukraine wheat harvest is expected to decrease due to war and unstabilization.
It could last years.
 
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Even though it will take time for the Ukrainian ports to be cleared of mines, Turkiye's proposal is to create a mine-free security corridor in the region under the UN's recommendation, and for these merchant ships to cross the Black Sea with naval escort.

The fastest solution is to transport wheat directly from Russian ports in the Azov Sea. In this case, without a mine clearance activity, the wheat that will come out of the Russian ports can cross the Black Sea with the escort of the TN.

The road transport proposal of France and some EU institutions is definitely not a model that can work. The costs are multiplying at an incredible scale. Moreover, a supply density that will meet the demand cannot be created with this model.

For me, if we look at recent developments, grain problem is about to be solved. A tripartite mechanism was established between Ukraine, Russia and Turkiye. A staff member with the rank of general was appointed from the defense ministries of these countries, also the hotline line was created for this purposes. Recent studies are being carried out on a model in which Turkiye is responsible in matters that both sides have reservations about.

Vassily Nebenzia, Russia's Ambassador to the United Nations, said his country could provide "safe passage" for grain from Ukraine to be transported across the Black Sea. "But it's not our responsibility to create a safety corridor," Nebenzia said.

In other words, the Russian side does not have a negative view on the exit of the grain if the demining activity is carried out with a suitable mechanism. Of course, this mechanism should also include confidence-building measures that will remove the obstacles to Russia's own grain export.

In short, I believe that with the resumption of supply chains, the Egyptian people will reduce this risk to a controllable level in the coming months.

Wont happen. Europe will not agree to any model involving Russia. Scholz, Macron and Draghi today in Kiew favor to break russias blockade by force and ship through Odessa under protection of french and german war ships.
 
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But even without blockade, the Ukraine wheat harvest is expected to decrease due to war and unstabilization.
It could last years.
Yes, that's why the grain problem is gradually evolving from being a temporary problem to being one of the main/visible factor fueling a permanent food crisis. I hope the conflicts will end in 2022. Because this war affects not only poor Russians and Ukrainians, but also people from many countries of the world who have difficulties in accessing basic food. So sad to see our predictions come true. Regarding the food crisis, the Ukraine war is not the starting point that initiates the impact, but a resistance point that amplifies the impact.

With the resolution of the blockade crisis in Ukrainian ports, the export of the existing stock will relieve many countries dependent on this product in the short term. However, including the reasons you mentioned, the unavoidable food inflation on a global scale is a signal flare that will require countries that are dependent on foreign food supplies to take serious measures immediately. The problem isn't just grain. The grain problem is just the tip of the iceberg.
 
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(News from May 17 2022)

Remember Arab Spring.
man you are late that ship wasnt blockaded by russia according to russian embassy in cairo. And egypt has reserves for 9 months of wheat after local harvest
 
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man you are late that ship wasnt blockaded by russia according to russian embassy in cairo. And egypt has reserves for 9 months of wheat after local harvest
It was the first headline about the topic that I found.

But the thread is about the general trending of grain crisis next years, if Ukraine remains unstabilized.

Global food prices crisis started in 2008, due to financial crisis, and Egypt revolution / Arab spring was in 2011.

If Ukraine remains in mayhem next years, you can expect things like 10 years ago.
 
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It was the first headline about the topic that I found.

But the thread is about the general trending of grain crisis next years, if Ukraine remains unstabilized.

Global food prices crisis started in 2008, due to financial crisis, and Egypt revolution / Arab spring was in 2011.

If Ukraine remains in mayhem next years, you can expect things like 10 years ago.
there werent reserves of anything during mubarak's period for prices not to flame. Now everything has a reserve even things we export has reserves so i dont really beleive history will repeat itself this time
 
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@BHAN85 , Turkish and Russian military delegations finally reached an agreement to Ukranian's grain exports/ship departures from Ukrainian ports. So the high-level diplomatic mechanism between TR, Ukraine and Russia yielded positive results. The first foreign ship to leave Mariupol is the Turkish dry cargo ship 'Azov Concord'. The Turkish navy will escort the ships leaving Maripol in the Black Sea.

At the meeting, where the evacuation of grain-laden merchant ships from Ukrainian ports was discussed, an understanding was formed for holding talks between Turkiye, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations (UN) to solve the problem. In this context, it is expected to meet as a quartet format in Turkiye in July, following the meetings with Ukraine and the UN side.

5 ships still waiting in the Port; Tsarevna from Bulgaria, Azburg from the Dominican Republic, Smarta from Liberia, Blue Star from Panama, all are dry cargo ships. In a short time, these ships also will leave the port for repair activities and crew change, then the grain corridor will be operational in a short time. https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/kirmizi-hattan-olumlu-sonuc-689678.html

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Egypt or other African countries (Congo, Sudan, Libya, Somalia, Tunisia, etc.) dependent on Ukrainian-Russian grain will reduce their stock crisis risks within a few months.
 
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Wont happen. Europe will not agree to any model involving Russia. Scholz, Macron and Draghi today in Kiew favor to break russias blockade by force and ship through Odessa under protection of french and german war ships.
Due to the current straits regime, warships of the said countries cannot break any blockade, also multiple warships above a certain total tonnage cannot be passed; Even if a combined task force is formed, these ships cannot stay in the Black Sea for more than a certain period of time (I mean a couple weeks). In addition, all passings must be notified weeks in advance. Also need to add, TR possibly will not move in the facilitating direction such an attempt lead by France.
 
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there werent reserves of anything during mubarak's period for prices not to flame. Now everything has a reserve even things we export has reserves so i dont really beleive history will repeat itself this time

And what if Ukraine remain unstabilized the next 3 coming years, will last reserves until 2025?

Btw, here in Spain, 25% of local Wheat harvest this year had been lost due to high temperatures last month.
 
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Due to the current straits regime, warships of the said countries cannot break any blockade, also multiple warships above a certain total tonnage cannot be passed; Even if a combined task force is formed, these ships cannot stay in the Black Sea for more than a certain period of time (I mean a couple weeks). In addition, all passings must be notified weeks in advance. Also need to add, TR possibly will not move in the facilitating direction such an attempt lead by France.

Doubt that Erdo wants new migrants
 
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Hulusi Akar, Minister of National Defense:

"Tomorrow, the UN delegation will hold talks in Istanbul with the military delegations of the defense ministries of Turkiye, Russia and Ukraine for the safe shipment of the grain waiting in the Ukrainian ports to international markets by sea."
 
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And what if Ukraine remain unstabilized the next 3 coming years, will last reserves until 2025?

Btw, here in Spain, 25% of local Wheat harvest this year had been lost due to high temperatures last month.
I dont think we are relying on ukraine that much and their share is being minimized and takenn over by local wheat india and europe

Ukraine will be dismembered and we wont see ukranian wheat in the market the prices will sky rocket. Their current approach is buying the cheapest wheat possible and making sweet potato bread and growing more wheat
 
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