East Asian Union China+Taiwan+Japan+Korea, possible?

[kalu_miah]

The closest picture I could find. The Union under discussion excludes Mongolia and Vietnam, as shown in above picture.

This thread is to consider the feasibility of this future scenario of East Asian Union (China+Taiwan+Japan+Korea), as opposed to some of the other possibilities such as:
ASEAN+3
ASEAN+6
ASEAN+
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180755-geopolitics-asean-region.html

Unfortunately I could not find much material from web search. Here are some related materials:
China
Should there be a new East Asian unity (Chinese, Koreans, Japanese)? - Historum - History Forums
http://www.defence.pk/forums/chinese-defence/34467-china-supports-east-asian-community-concept.html
http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/bergsten0507.pdf

In the historum thread, people mostly felt negative about its feasibility, while some expressed that Japan would rather create tighter economic and military alliance with ASEAN rather than China, at this stage of world history, supporting my own ASEAN+ idea.

In the defence.pk thread above also, people expressed negative views. Why this new thread? Its because the East Asian Community discussed in this thread is really about ASEAN+3, not China+Japan+Korea.

The iie (Institute for International Economics) website paper, which looks like an excerpt from a book, is not exactly about China+Japan+Korea, but rather about wider Asian integration (ASEAN+3 or ASEAN+6), which is to the benefit of Asia, but at the expense of US influence in the region. In other words, the US is at a cross roads, not sure whether to support any integration measures in this region, which is clearly going to reduce US influence in the region. But most Asians want further integration for their own economic and security benefit. So the US may have to choose to support the least damaging (to itself) of the different integration pathways.

@sEoulman556 , here is the promised thread for East Asian Union.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Sure, but China must assume as the leader, can the gone right Japan accept this?

 

[kalu_miah]

Sure, but China must assume as the leader, can the gone right Japan accept this?

That is the core issue. Will Japan (regardless of the right or left wing shift) as a nation accept China as their leader? Will Russia accept Germany as the leader, if it wants to join the EU?

I doubt it. Lets see what others think. That is why I believe my ASEAN+ and Eurasia+ (former Soviet+Turkey+Iran+AF-Pak) "fantasy/lunatic" ideas are more feasible.

 

[Okemos]

"Japan would rather create tighter economic and military alliance with ASEAN rather than China,"

How? You know Japan and Korea are already much more integrated with China than with ASEAN nations. Nationalism and historical mistrust apart, I think North East Asian countries are more aligned.

The reason why Japan is not sincere to apologize for its war crimes is Japan only bows to more powerful nations and Japan is more economically developed than Korea and China right now. When Korea and China are equally developed, Japan will have to repent its past war crimes and everyone should move on. A lot of right wing Japanese see China as backward and no longer the same Chinese they used to admire so they don't want to associate with China. But I don't see this as anything special since even urban people look down upon their own poor countrymen. We are still savages in a way.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

But Japan seems more interested in TPP（Trans-Pacific Partnership ）led by US.

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): 18th Round of TPP Negotiations Set for Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia -- July 15-24, 2013 | Office of the United States Trade Representative

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Strategic_Economic_Partnership

I heard news yesterday that Japan will soon participate TPP conference which will affect China's proposal of Free Trade Area among China, South Korea and Japan. South Korea president Park Geun-hye also support such FTA, actually FTA is first proposed by SK. Detailed plan has been under discussion, next year China & South Korea FTA maybe established.

China's long term goal is to establish a more broad economic zone consisting ASEAN+China/SK/JP+Australia+New Zealand+maybe India(not so sure). So the FTA among three countries is only an elementary plan. There is more broad interest accross regions.

@East Asia United how do you think

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

That is the core issue. Will Japan accept China as the leader? Will Russia accept Germany as the leader, if it wants to join the EU?

I doubt it. Lets see what others think. That is why I believe my ASEAN+ and Eurasia+ (former Soviet+Turkey+Iran+AF-Pak) fantasy ideas are more feasible.

Iran, turkey?? That is too broad, impossible.

 

[Okemos]

But Japan seems more interested in TPP（Trans-Pacific Partnership ）led by US.

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): 18th Round of TPP Negotiations Set for Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia -- July 15-24, 2013 | Office of the United States Trade Representative

Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I heard news yesterday that Japan will soon participate TPP conference which will affect China's proposal of Free Trade Area among China, South Korea and Japan. South Korea president Park Geun-hye also support such FTA, actually FTA is first proposed by SK. Detailed plan has been under discussion, next year China & South Korea FTA maybe established.

China's long term goal is to establish a more broad economic zone consisting ASEAN+China/SK/JP+Australia+New Zealand+maybe India(not so sure). So the FTA among three countries is only an elementary plan. There is more broad interest accross regions.

An organization with too many members that have various interests cannot function well. If we are gonna create a trade organization with all those countries you listed above, what's different from the current WTO? For example, EU and U.S. are more important than ASEAN and New Zealand to China. I also don't see the point of so called TPP. This sounds more like political stunt than actual trade organization.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

An organization with too many members that have various interests cannot function well. If we are gonna create a trade organization with all those countries you listed above, what's different from the current WTO? For example, EU and U.S. are more important than ASEAN and New Zealand to China. I also don't see the point of so called TPP. This sounds more like political stunt than actual trade organization.

Yes, so it is a very very long term plan which cannot be achieved in coming years even in 15 years. Each country has its own trade structure, for example, China will not accept that Japanese cars to be the dominant consumption, for national veichle industries' sake. The same goes with S. Korea, its agricultural industry will have to endure a winter period because of China's agricultural product rushing into its market.

TPP is led by US and just lunched in 2005(??), most of us may not hear that.

 

[Zero_wing]

Sure minus china and taiwan

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

Sure minus china and taiwan

hatred blind your eyes, bro~

 

[panyimao]

Sure minus china and taiwan

Chinese people in this country is that you sprinkle a urinary countries will be able to put you off.

 

[jhungary]

I will only say two things here

1.) you cannot have an UNION when you have a dominant partner. Otherwise the so called "Union" are only a sock puppet for the dominant force. You obviously know nothing about EU, Germany did not dominate EU, it's a 3 pillars system using in the EU, where the UK, France and Germany dominate EU and they sort of go against each other all the time. Hence a working Union can exist. NATO is not a Union and they are dominated by the American.

2.) You cannot pick random country from the world and form a Union....
China have no border with Turkey and most Former Soviet states, you cannot maintain union integrity when you share no common border. You can form a pact, but not a union.

 

[jhungary]

But Japan seems more interested in TPP（Trans-Pacific Partnership ）led by US.

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): 18th Round of TPP Negotiations Set for Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia -- July 15-24, 2013 | Office of the United States Trade Representative

Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I heard news yesterday that Japan will soon participate TPP conference which will affect China's proposal of Free Trade Area among China, South Korea and Japan. South Korea president Park Geun-hye also support such FTA, actually FTA is first proposed by SK. Detailed plan has been under discussion, next year China & South Korea FTA maybe established.

China's long term goal is to establish a more broad economic zone consisting ASEAN+China/SK/JP+Australia+New Zealand+maybe India(not so sure). So the FTA among three countries is only an elementary plan. There is more broad interest accross regions.

@East Asia United how do you think

I don't ever foresee a Chinese Economic zone with Japan and South Korea, let alone South Pacific Country like Australia and New Zealand.

To establish a economic zone, all party are to trade with the same currency, either you are asking to pick one currency from the above list and trade with (Which is impossible) or you ask China to use the international currency- US Dollar(Again it's impossible) or you ask all the country above switch to RMB (Well, unless China rollover all the country, I would say it's impossible)

Currently there are no direct linkage between RMB and other currency, you will need to establish that first, when the world started to depend more on RMB, then it's time to talk about bumping RMB into international currency. And then only after then, you can talk about establishing an economic zone.

Lol I always thought FTA is Free Trade Agreement......Anyway, strangely China have a FTA with ASEAN but not individual country like SK, Japan, Australia or New Zealand.....

 

[Ayush]

hehe,and akhand bharat can be there too..

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

I don't ever foresee a Chinese Economic zone with Japan and South Korea, let alone South Pacific Country like Australia and New Zealand.

To establish a economic zone, all party are to trade with the same currency, either you are asking to pick one currency from the above list and trade with (Which is impossible) or you ask China to use the international currency- US Dollar(Again it's impossible) or you ask all the country above switch to RMB (Well, unless China rollover all the country, I would say it's impossible)

Currently there are no direct linkage between RMB and other currency, you will need to establish that first, when the world started to depend more on RMB, then it's time to talk about bumping RMB into international currency. And then only after then, you can talk about establishing an economic zone.

Lol I always thought FTA is Free Trade Agreement......Anyway, strangely China have a FTA with ASEAN but not individual country like SK, Japan, Australia or New Zealand.....

yes, RMB is still not an international reserve currency. But UK and France are going to sign currency exchange agreement with China. You can google that. Many other developing countries have already established such exchange agreement.