DON'T HAVE ENOUGH JETS TO FIGHT 2 FRONT WAR INVOLVING CHINA AND PAKISTAN : IAF

[Shankranthi]

And @Shankranthi is totally incorrect to say the civilians are silent in the matter. The parliamentary standing committee on defence has numerous times noted the HUGE shortfall in numbers as a matter of concern for the IAF and has explicitly stated this impacts the IAF's abilities to fight a two front war. In fact this very committee has proposed increasing the sanctioned of the IAF to 45 SQNs by 2025 from the current 42 figure. My friend @PARIKRAMA will be able provide you the relevant reports from the standing committee on defence.

Don't shoot the messenger, the IAF is making a fair point and pushing for superior decision making not necessarily more money- the money is there is just isn't being spent.

The IAF has been saying this behind closed doors for a long time but if the civilians are too inept to get the correct course of action moving then why direct your anger to the IAF for simply stating the facts? Only a fool wouldn't take these words seriously. It's like 1962, the military said again and again that India wasn't in a shape to fight a war but the civilians pushed for it and look what happened. The military will continue to do their job, they are just asking the civilians to do their job- how unreasonable(!). The very attitude you are showing is exactly the one the civilians showed during the height of the trainer crisis when cadets and instructors were being killed because those useless civilians were failing in their roles and it it was the MiG-21 "flying coffins". But of course, the IAF should just shut up and accept it. Who cares if a few pilots die, who cares if they are in no shape to fight an ever expanding enemy, right?

There is a shortfall from sanctioned strength and that is an open secret. No need for the IAF chief to state it in a press conference.

I would have been impressed if the IAF chief had said that unless the strength is brought up I will resign in protest. That would have earned him respect.

Whining in the press and trying to spread fear mongering is hardly the way of a responsible officer or even an intelligent officer with character and a sense of responsibility.

Only a fools would respect such an officer. If I was to do this in a private company I would be fired immediately.

If this is the level of "professionalism" then we have already lost the war. Which is why I would rather put my trust in my civilian leadership than such military leadership.

Finally its not the military leaderships job to tell the Civilian leadership how to do their job. That is what nagging wife does. Only hen pecked husbands admire that trait. Clearly you do.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

really.
if they want more money then they should not go crying to the media so they can shame the government. of course if they do need money they do have the right to ask for it, but not make it public.
as for the squadron numbers i think you will find that iaf has 34squadrons [2] and that number will go down as the mig 21/27 are being retired, and they make up for 14 squadrons[2] but then again you need about 252 aircraft to fill that void. sure the tejas is built for the void but the mk2's are gonna be ready beyond 2020.
realistically the iaf will have 42-45 squadrons by about 2035.
now im not gonna consider the availability rate here for the mki's, jaguars and the mig-29's. the mk2 are rock solid and good to go (the upgraded ones)



[1] Why the Indian Air Force has a high crash rate | Russia & India Report
[2] Combat ready? IAF down to 25 fighter squadrons | india | Hindustan Times

Slight difference here my good friend

LCA present line is 8 Jets a year. A second line is getting done to first add 8 jets a year and then scale it up to 16 jets a year. So the plan for MK1A seems to be this
April 2018 -2024 Dec -6 years 8 months - 16 jets a year (line 1 - 8 + line 2 - 8)x 6.67 = 106 Jets
Post this the second line will start producing at 16 jets a year so total productivity will be Line 1 8+ Line 2 16 = 24 Jets a year

This is where either Mark 2 will start or for another 2 years Mark1A more numbers will be crunched. Either way, its now 24 jets a year

Jan 2025- Dec 2030 = 6 full years 24 x 6 = 144 Jets

Thus light category would then become

Mark 1 = 20
Mark 1A = 106 Jets
mark1A or Mark 2 = 144 Jets

So by 2030 end = 144+106+20 = 270 Jets or 16.875 squadron+

Couple with MKI - 312 or 19.5 Squad

So with Hi and lo its 36.375

Even if i consider Jags and Mig29s as combined number of 63+50 odd or 7 squdrons

Thus, its 36.3+7 =43 squads

If i consider Rafales either as 1:1 replacement of the above 7 sqds of medium its 43 sqds plus anyways..

Considering we have enough time till 2030 end and even if MII for any jet happens and starts production by 2019 and we get 11 year + full production then with say 16 jets a year we are looking at 176 jets or 11 sqds

On top off the shelf 36 will be signed so thats 2.25

That means 2030 end its 43.3+11+2.25 = 56.5 squadrons post which 7 squadrons will be retired in a phased manner and will need replacement in next 5-7 years with newer jets.

Thus the medium category has a need of 176+36+112= 324+ jets

Looking at timeline upto 2030 and further 5 years to retire 5-7 squads, i am betting this category to be Rafales as of now.. Incase AMCA comes in some numbers of the same will be then used to do 1:1 replacement of Jags and Mig29s.

This is all without FGFA.. I do have a feeling FGFA will be limited and may be used to replace more of MKIs at a later stage owing to cost part of maintaining a 5th gen jet especially since India plans for 2 such jets (AMCA and FGFA)

 

[Shankranthi]

WTF is Indian Air Force vice-chief conveying to media about lack of fighter jets. Talk to MOD and have a squadron of LSP tejas to be tested by IAF ace pilots for feed back rather than
having HAL doing all the testing. feedbacks help improve the induction of Tejas faster. IAF needs to learn from IN.

Not quite.

Apparently Whining is the new standards in IAF Leadership. NOT Doing.

And why not ? They have certain foolish civilians cheering them on.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Man your posts are funny keep it coming!!

Your signature:

A nation's strength ultimately consists in what it can do on its own, and not in what it can borrow from others: INDIRA GANDHI

And then this↓↓↓↓↓

You REALLY need to BUY a English Dictionary

We can BUY Rafales and SU 30 MKI
We are NOT Borrowing them

They are NOT on LOANS like your JF 17 from China

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have been here for more than a year but this is the first time that SOMEBODY
has asked about the difference between Buying and borrowing

This quote is appropriate for your country's economic situation
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
India has been PURSUING Technological SELF RELIANCE for a long time now

In some fields we have achieved a LOT and in some others
we are making progress

When you BUY with your OWN MONEY ; that is also an ACHIEVEMENT

 

[Kurlang]

In a candid admission, the IAF on Thursday said that given its depleting strength, it does not have the adequate numbers to "fully execute" an air campaign in case of a two-front war involving Pakistan and China simultaneously.

It also sought more 5th generation fighter aircraft over and above the 36 Rafales since it was a requirement.

The revelation by the IAF comes at a time when the squadron strength of the force has come down to 33 in comparison to the sanctioned strength of 42.

Of the 33, a very large chunk is made up of Russian origin Su-30 jets, the front line fighter aircraft of the country.

However, the serviceability ratio of the aircraft is very poor with the figure hovering around 55 per cent. This means that out of 100 aircraft, only around 55 are available at a point of time with the rest being bogged down in service.

"Our numbers are not adequate to fully execute an air campaign in a two front scenario. Probability of a two front scenario is an appreciation which you need to do. But, are the numbers adequate? No. The squadrons are winding down," Air Marshal B S Dhanoa, Vice-Chief of the IAF said addressing a press conference here.

He was asked if the IAF has the capability to fight a two-front war if it breaks out tomorrow.

IAF sources said that a two-front war is not a likely possibility for the next few years and in the meantime, the force hopes to come up with the required capability.

"We have conveyed our concerns to the government. Government is seized of this problem and the reason why the government signed the 36 aircraft (Rafale) on G2G basis is because of urgency that they felt because of the depletion in squadron numbers," Dhanoa, a Kargil war veteran said.

Asked if there is a requirement for more Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) type aircraft besides the 36 Rafales, he said yes.


"There are various avenues that are being explored. There is a requirement for us to buy a MMRCA class aircraft more than the 36 numbers that we have signed. Which platform may come in, that is something between us and the government. We (both) will have to take a call," he said.

Deputy Chief of the IAF Air Marshal R K S Bhadauria said that a decision on more aircraft will be take only after the conclusion of the contract for 36 Rafale fighter jets.

Don't have the numbers to fully fight two-front war: IAF - Times of India

What would be those circumstances where Pakistan and China or may be Bangladesh may jointly attach India
What is the probability of that being occurring. I think 0.0001 - in fact NIL
It would be even more interesting to know, why the hell china would be interesting in directly attacking India. While it is doing good business with India

As a military planner, it is good to plan for worst case scenarios. May be the chief want to squeeze as much budget for airforce as possible. Interesingly, the germans could not defend themselves in the two front war scenario. So stop kidding.

Last but not least, India is a nuclear country, repercussions would be extremely serious.

 

[surya kiran]

Just in the spirit of what the Indian air chief is speculating, I just added the BD factor as well

and the counter argument to anyone rubbishing my suggestion is that BD becoming hostile is as unlikely as India having to face/ open two active fronts against both China and Pakistan It has never happened before has it?

Also, my comment about Indian Navy's combat air arm vs BD air force was not meant to be condescending towards BD air force. While asking the question originally I realized that I was missing the Indian Navy and its carrier here (which back in the 71 war played a very successful part).

so, for the sake of the wargaming and staying true to a hypothetical scenario of India facing multi-pronged air hostilities, I decided that IAF would have to worry much about BD air force’s sneak attack as it can be kept at check and reduced to a defensive role in the presence of Indian aircraft carrier and its entire support group in bay of Bengal.

People, sometimes do allow yourself a healthy and informative debate instead of sarcasm and insults, before you know it you will be spiting blood and poison from your nostrils and behinds if this habit translates into your daily life.

I thought, you were trolling because of your comment where you said, that, you were not aware of IAF bases in the east. Hence, my return trolling.

On a serious note, there will multiple variables. What month is it? How many aircraft carriers are available? What is the strategic objective with respect to Bangladesh.

In this scenario, the aim of the Indian Armed Forces, not just the Air Force will be to remove Bangladesh from the equation. This means, they accept a ceasefire with immediate effect. The IN will enforce a blockade and the InAF flying out of land bases, will launch attacks on Dhaka and Chittagong. Once, air dominance is achieved the objective will be to flood the plains making any kind of offensive operations impossible for the Bangladeshi Armed Forces.
The reason, I say so, is because the Indian CBGs will concentrate on Pakistan. Unless, there are 3 operational CBGs, where one will be in the Bay of Bengal.

Bangladeshi forces will try to attack north and cut Siliguri. This will make flooding the Farakka of no use, since this attack will be upstream to the point of the barrage. Hence, before anything happens it will be of vital strategic interests to ensure Indian forces cut east from Dinajpur, Rangpur and then across the Teesta to Cooch Behar, avoiding the Brahmaputra. If the attack is during the onset of summer, the attack will happen more to the south and join Meghalaya instead of Assam.

My personal opinion is the InAF will concentrate its air wing towards the PN and the PN coast. Not BN. There is also a probability that BAF withdraws its AF to Burma and from there to China, incase, they realise they are losing. Hence, sign ceasefire and then get the planes back and rebuild for a stronger air force.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

I thought, you were trolling because of your comment where you said, that, you were not aware of IAF bases in the east. Hence, my return trolling.

On a serious note, there will multiple variables. What month is it? How many aircraft carriers are available? What is the strategic objective with respect to Bangladesh.

In this scenario, the aim of the Indian Armed Forces, not just the Air Force will be to remove Bangladesh from the equation. This means, they accept a ceasefire with immediate effect. The IN will enforce a blockade and the InAF flying out of land bases, will launch attacks on Dhaka and Chittagong. Once, air dominance is achieved the objective will be to flood the plains making any kind of offensive operations impossible for the Bangladeshi Armed Forces.
The reason, I say so, is because the Indian CBGs will concentrate on Pakistan. Unless, there are 3 operational CBGs, where one will be in the Bay of Bengal.

Bangladeshi forces will try to attack north and cut Siliguri. This will make flooding the Farakka of no use, since this attack will be upstream to the point of the barrage. Hence, before anything happens it will be of vital strategic interests to ensure Indian forces cut east from Dinajpur, Rangpur and then across the Teesta to Cooch Behar, avoiding the Brahmaputra. If the attack is during the onset of summer, the attack will happen more to the south and join Meghalaya instead of Assam.

My personal opinion is the InAF will concentrate its air wing towards the PN and the PN coast. Not BN. There is also a probability that BAF withdraws its AF to Burma and from there to China, incase, they realise they are losing. Hence, sign ceasefire and then get the planes back and rebuild for a stronger air force.

We cannot rely only on IAF and IN to keep Bangladesh in check

Some Army action will also be required to relieve the pressure on the Siliguri Corridor

Since Bangladesh is deemed to be a friendly country
NOBODY from the government will say this in public
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@surya kiran @Irfan Baloch @asad71

India has deployed adequate forces on Bangladesh Border

Here is an EXCERPT from a interview with India's former Army Chief

Q: Is the 2.5:1 deployment on the border in India's favour a necessity or a show of military strength?

A: The ground reality requires it. As you know, the army is not deployed on the Bangladesh border. But our BSF is the largest border guarding force in the world. And it has lots on its plate. The BSF is a bulwark against illegal Bangladeshi immigrants besides smugglers and criminals of both countries. So the deployment is actually in everyone's interest.

I don't know how much of the India-Bangladesh border is still unfenced. The task should be completed quickly. It will solve a lot of problems.

Q: How are military-to-military relations between India and Bangladesh? Do you think armed forces may succeed where diplomats cannot?

A: Bangladesh has a much smaller army. Indian army should maintain good relations with it. Bangladesh's army is not a threat like Pakistan's or China's. Relations between the two armies were formal when Awami League was not in power. But now it's cordial. The bottomline is that after 1971 we have never felt the necessity of deploying the army on the Bangladesh border because there has been no outbreak of hostilities. When army-to-army ties are good, then diplomats have one less thorn to pluck out.

During my tenure as COAS, Prime Minister Narasimha Rao handled the Defence portfolio. On several occasions we discussed ways and means of maintaining military equilibrium with Bangladesh. The PM advised me to maintain peace but remain vigilant.

Q: From the Indian military point of view, does Pakistan exercise a bad influence on Bangladesh?

A: Pakistan had a strong presence in Bangladesh. Pakistan instigated the Bangladesh army to adopt an aggressive attitude towards India. Thanks to Pakistan, there was a phase when there was very little interaction between the Bangladeshi and Indian army. Bangladeshi army consulted the Pakistani army and sought its advice for conducting its affairs, including their approach to India. So Indian armed forces should always keep an eye on military ties between Dhaka and Islamabad.

Q: How would you describe the Bangladeshi army today?

A: It's a good professional army. It's deployed extensively in United Nations peacekeeping duties. Bangladesh army is very good - just like the Indian or Pakistani army. The quality of manpower is solid. But equipment-wise they obviously don't match up.

Q: What would have been your major concerns if you headed Bangladesh's armed forces instead of India's?

A: India's military superiority is of course overwhelming.
But the Bangladesh military will have to defend its territory by whatever means are available. Every Bangladeshi COAS would naturally plan accordingly.


Read this interview : 'On a scale of 1-10, Dhaka-Delhi ties at 8' -
bdnews24.com

 

[Hephaestus]

for BD we have something special ... !
Farakka Barrage - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Was about to write that.

On the point BD I hope won't dare any misadventure in case of a 2 prong war. But, who knows BR might try something. A few warning shots (read: Brahmos) towards Dhaka & Chattaogram should be enough.

 

[asad71]

Was about to write that.

On the point BD I hope won't dare any misadventure in case of a 2 prong war. But, who knows BR might try something. A few warning shots (read: Brahmos) towards Dhaka & Chattaogram should be enough.

And what about the shots without warning that this will evoke? From north, from west and from us also.

 

[surya kiran]

Some Army action will also be required to relieve the pressure on the Siliguri Corridor

Yes, which is why I said, it is imperative the northern part of BD be cut quickly. This ensures we have broader control of the Siliguri corridor.

 

[SQ8]

To be as polite as possible..

ABAY KAUNSI TWO FRONT WAR?!!
KYA KHA KAR AISA KHATARNAAK SAPNA VEKHA HAI SARDARJI!!??

Sprite ki botal pi aur dakar le.. gas upar charh gai hai.



There is NO two front scenario EVER!. It is total fiction and war warmongering brought up by India's military and associated hawkish bureaucrats to push their modernization requirements along.

 

[Abingdonboy]

To be as polite as possible..

ABAY KAUNSI TWO FRONT WAR?!!
KYA KHA KAR AISA KHATARNAAK SAPNA VEKHA HAI SARDARJI!!??

Sprite ki botal pi aur dakar le.. gas upar charh gai hai.



There is NO two front scenario EVER!. It is total fiction and war warmongering brought up by India's military and associated hawkish bureaucrats to push their modernization requirements along.

Just like there is almost no threat today or 2 decades from now from China's military but the US Mil is using it as their "boogeyman" to justify all kinds of absurd military spending. It is the purpose of these entities to make the case for more more more.

 

[surya kiran]

There is NO two front scenario EVER!. It is total fiction and war warmongering brought up by India's military and associated hawkish bureaucrats to push their modernization requirements along.

Forget 2 front, now there is 3 front war as per @Irfan Baloch Though, I think, sling shots will make the 3rd front secure

 

[Hephaestus]

And what about the shots without warning that this will evoke? From north, from west and from us also.

What are you talking?
North, West - I'm assuming you mean China & Pak. Read the post again. The scenario is we are at war with them already.

From you - That's what I was referring to when I said if any misadventure by BR & your Army a few missiles into BD would be enough. There are various other ways to stop BA and if push comes to shove. Lord almighty help you boys.

 

[HariPrasad]

The IAF should have gone for Mig 35 or saab gripen, there would be 100s of planes flying around, at the same time the Tijas would mature.

I agree with your point of Mig 35. However the question is why not Su35 (MKI version). ?