rent4country
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Russian action alone will not have a material impact on dollar value.
What is however troubling and is likely to impact dollar value is the overlapping of a number of things:
1) Russia and China both reducing their dollar holds
2) China reducing drastically its purchase of US Bonds
3) General cooling of foreign US bond purchase forcing the Fed buying its own issuance in order to maintain its price equilibrium
4) Liquidity pump in dollars within the US market
5) Portion of world trade moving away from US Dollar (likely 15% in the next 5 years)
You take all of these together an we are likely to see dollar inflationary pressure. Having said that Dollar will remain on a global level one of the stronger currencies but will loose its shine. A second major wave of CoVid or a failed rebound in the economy and we could see a significant issue.
- Russian is not much of an economy to affect the dollar.
- For China, we have substitutes in many emerging economies. The developed economies will never bet on China's yuan. Even so, china may capture less than a 3rd of the market, the rest will always bet on the dollar.
- Even today Japan & Aus trade in yuan only on their bi-bilateral trade agreements. they continue to use dollars for everything else.
Now, about these BONDS they won't be purchasing. Let me tell you a little secret. Countries buy our bonds fully knowing that at MATURITY, the value of the money put in, will be at a loss given the low percentage of interest and taking inflation into account. i.e. Countries while knowing fully well that buying US bonds will not mean a financial ROI, still buy our US bonds. Guess why? - stability, politics, transparency, and dollar history
btw, China only holds less than a trillion of US treasury bonds, they seem to have been on a buying spree for Japanese bonds since last year.
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