vicky sen
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The elections I grew up with were different, very different. They were based on demographics. Caste, sub-caste, religion, community; and a few regional issues. Calculus didn’t enter the picture. Simple arithmetic did the trick. Except in a few constituencies where issues overlapped and party analysts had to evaluate options. That’s where things went wrong. But, by and large, people voted for their own.
India has changed since then. More so, in the past five years. People are now looking for other things. Things that they believe are more important than simply voting for their own.
Narendra Modi believes people will vote for development. That’s why he has quietly sneaked away from the BJP’s traditional campaign issues and is, instead, pitching for the idea of a brave, new India that can take on the world. Since demographics show that there will be over 150 million young Indians voting for the first time this year, and they have no interest in history or ideology but want better jobs, more exciting careers, opportunities to strike out on their own, Modi is selling them the prospect of a resurgent economy. Hindutva and Sardar Patel may still be the backdrop, but that’s just to keep the RSS happy. He is clearly going for something people believe he can do. He is using tools his audience is familiar with. He has seized the first initiative on social media and then, followed it up with aggressive road shows. But the young are no longer his only followers. The growing business community adores him. They are openly rooting for him.
Arvind Kejriwal, on the other hand, is convinced that Indians, all Indians hate corruption. It has, they feel, deprived them of their rights. So his promise is to root out corruption. He knows the instant appeal of street politics and its real time TV coverage. He has also, like Modi, asserted his presence on social media and with these tools reached out to the aspiring middle class, a growing and noisy constituency dying to be politically addressed. They need a Ravana to burn this season and corruption is the perfect target. It also, by instant association, knocks the Congress out of the race. Exactly what Kejriwal wants so that he can grab chunks of the traditional Congress vote bank. They may be sceptical about his disruptive tactics but are also impressed by the way he’s changing the rules of the game. That’s why AAP is attracting some very fine people who are looking for a non traditional option to align with.
That leaves only stability as a campaign premise for the Congress. It has lost the young and the upwardly mobile to Modi and a chunk of the middle class to Kejriwal. It has alienated minorities and the intelligentsia. It has even lost the support of corporate India which has always stood by it, though they hated the socialist rhetoric and fake populism of the Congress that was meant largely to allow party’s satraps to purloin vast sums of money from the exchequer. Listening to Rahul Gandhi on Arnab’s interview show last Monday offered some intriguing clues to what he’s thinking. Not once did he mention secularism. He sidestepped all charges of corruption and kept rambling on about the bigger picture. The vote banks he was clearly addressing were women and youth. But, even there, he seemed rather lost and unprepared. So much so, an unusually compassionate Arnab let him off the hook.
While these guys may be the key players for the 2014 vote, they are not the only ones. There are others not in the spotlight yet. Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalitha, Mayavati, Mamata, Jaganmohan Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu are huge vote catchers and, in the post-poll scenario, can effortlessly swing the outcome any which way by clever alliances. We just saw how the Congress with 8 seats in Delhi kayoed the BJP who had 32.
Smart coalitions can keep the Congress still in play. For it’s no longer just about winning seats. It’s also about stitching up winning alliances. The party that wins the maximum seats may not be able to eventually form the Government because the others can get together to checkmate them. That’s where the Congress’s enormous war chest comes to its assistance.
But, yes, right now the cards look clearly stacked up against them. Their election campaign is pathetic. Money is seldom a substitute for smart strategy. And it frankly looks as if the Congress is not even bothered about winning. What they are working on is a post election scenario, where they can outsmart others and stitch together an UPA3. Possible? Why not? Except that allies also have a habit of migrating towards a winner. So Modi could well seize that. Or Kejriwal may find an entirely new way to wreck it all.
Does Rahul have a winning strategy? by Extraordinary Issue : Pritish Nandy's blog-The Times Of India
India has changed since then. More so, in the past five years. People are now looking for other things. Things that they believe are more important than simply voting for their own.
Narendra Modi believes people will vote for development. That’s why he has quietly sneaked away from the BJP’s traditional campaign issues and is, instead, pitching for the idea of a brave, new India that can take on the world. Since demographics show that there will be over 150 million young Indians voting for the first time this year, and they have no interest in history or ideology but want better jobs, more exciting careers, opportunities to strike out on their own, Modi is selling them the prospect of a resurgent economy. Hindutva and Sardar Patel may still be the backdrop, but that’s just to keep the RSS happy. He is clearly going for something people believe he can do. He is using tools his audience is familiar with. He has seized the first initiative on social media and then, followed it up with aggressive road shows. But the young are no longer his only followers. The growing business community adores him. They are openly rooting for him.
Arvind Kejriwal, on the other hand, is convinced that Indians, all Indians hate corruption. It has, they feel, deprived them of their rights. So his promise is to root out corruption. He knows the instant appeal of street politics and its real time TV coverage. He has also, like Modi, asserted his presence on social media and with these tools reached out to the aspiring middle class, a growing and noisy constituency dying to be politically addressed. They need a Ravana to burn this season and corruption is the perfect target. It also, by instant association, knocks the Congress out of the race. Exactly what Kejriwal wants so that he can grab chunks of the traditional Congress vote bank. They may be sceptical about his disruptive tactics but are also impressed by the way he’s changing the rules of the game. That’s why AAP is attracting some very fine people who are looking for a non traditional option to align with.
That leaves only stability as a campaign premise for the Congress. It has lost the young and the upwardly mobile to Modi and a chunk of the middle class to Kejriwal. It has alienated minorities and the intelligentsia. It has even lost the support of corporate India which has always stood by it, though they hated the socialist rhetoric and fake populism of the Congress that was meant largely to allow party’s satraps to purloin vast sums of money from the exchequer. Listening to Rahul Gandhi on Arnab’s interview show last Monday offered some intriguing clues to what he’s thinking. Not once did he mention secularism. He sidestepped all charges of corruption and kept rambling on about the bigger picture. The vote banks he was clearly addressing were women and youth. But, even there, he seemed rather lost and unprepared. So much so, an unusually compassionate Arnab let him off the hook.
While these guys may be the key players for the 2014 vote, they are not the only ones. There are others not in the spotlight yet. Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalitha, Mayavati, Mamata, Jaganmohan Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu are huge vote catchers and, in the post-poll scenario, can effortlessly swing the outcome any which way by clever alliances. We just saw how the Congress with 8 seats in Delhi kayoed the BJP who had 32.
Smart coalitions can keep the Congress still in play. For it’s no longer just about winning seats. It’s also about stitching up winning alliances. The party that wins the maximum seats may not be able to eventually form the Government because the others can get together to checkmate them. That’s where the Congress’s enormous war chest comes to its assistance.
But, yes, right now the cards look clearly stacked up against them. Their election campaign is pathetic. Money is seldom a substitute for smart strategy. And it frankly looks as if the Congress is not even bothered about winning. What they are working on is a post election scenario, where they can outsmart others and stitch together an UPA3. Possible? Why not? Except that allies also have a habit of migrating towards a winner. So Modi could well seize that. Or Kejriwal may find an entirely new way to wreck it all.
Does Rahul have a winning strategy? by Extraordinary Issue : Pritish Nandy's blog-The Times Of India
