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Does China Have What It Takes to Be a Superpower?
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in Dalian on May 31, 2018. Photographer: Nang gongaq/Imaginechina via AP Photo
By Marc Champion and Adrian Leung
August 30, 2018
As the U.S. well knows, it’s expensive to be a superpower. The costs of maintaining a large military, leading diplomatic missions and providing aid to foreign countries all add up. The more China extends itself around the globe, the heavier the burden will be. While the country has deep pockets, there are economic and financial challenges at home, and if things go belly up domestically it could put strains on President Xi Jinping’s ambitions. As the Chinese general Sun Tzu wrote in “The Art of War” two and a half millennia ago, “first count the cost.”
So a key question for China is: What kind of great power does it want to become? Surely, China wants to dominate in Asia, its backyard. At that regional level, projections of the Middle Kingdom’s economic growth, population size and defense spending suggest it will have outstripped the U.S. by 2030.
China Is Projected to Overtake the U.S. as a Regional Power in Asia by 2030
Index of GDP, military expenditure and working age forecasts
11.4
Russia
60.0
U.S.
8.8
Japan
83.0
China
5.6
South Korea
55.6
India
4.0
Philippines
7.6
Pakistan
5.2
Bangladesh
11.7
Indonesia
Note: Projected distribution premised on current assumptions. GDP and military spending are in PPP terms.
Source: Lowy Institute
But being a regional great power isn’t the same as being a global superpower—a concept first used to describe the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the U.S. Here’s one definition:
“A ‘superpower’ is a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon,” writes Alice Lyman Miller, China scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and a former CIA analyst.
That requires excelling in multiple areas of power projection: economic, military and “soft” (political and cultural).
Economic Power
China is already an economic superpower. At purchasing power parity, which adjusts the value of a dollar for what it can buy in a given country, China now has a larger economy than the U.S. The gap is only likely to grow, given that China has far more people making and buying things, and they’re likely to get richer than they are today.
Just looking at the scale of an economy in terms of what it can buy domestically may be misleading, however. Superpowers buy military bases, influence and goods abroad. The high-tech stealth fighters they purchase have an international price. The dollars that China invests through its Belt and Road Initiative to connect with markets around the world are just dollars, with the same purchasing power as anyone else’s. One way to measure how much extra buying power China has on the global market each year is to look at its GDP growth in current dollars, unadjusted for inflation or purchasing power parity. That paints a different picture.
GDP at Purchasing Power Parity
China Nominal Growth
U.S. GDP
5-year moving average
Annual
China GDP
$35T
30%
30
25
Projected
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
2023
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
Source: IMF, based on PPP valuation
China’s people, the sheer number of highly motivated workers moving off the land and into the urban economy, have been the secret to its extraordinary success until now. But because of the former “one-child policy,” that source of growth is likely to disappear soon. According to United Nations projections, China’s 1.4 billion population is likely to decline sharply, beginning as soon as 2023.
China’s Changing Population
1.6B
Actual
Margin of uncertainty
1.4
1.2
Median estimate
1.0
0.8
0.6
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2017
Both to boost the long-term prospects of its own economy and to extend its influence, China has embarked on what is probably the most ambitious foreign investment campaign in history. President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative extends from China to Western Europe and other parts of the world by land and sea. It performs some of the functions of Washington’s large foreign aid budget, but more than that—it has the potential to create longer-term revenue, ties and dependencies. Even if China’s leaders don’t want to become the next global superpower, the need to promote and protect such widespread investments could yet take them there.
Belt and Road Initiative
Silk Road Economic Belt
Maritime Silk Road Initiative
Moscow
Duisburg
Rotterdam
Almaty
Urumqi
Bishkek
Venice
Istanbul
Samarkand
Dushanbe
Athens
Xi’an
CHINA
Tehran
Fuzhou
Guangzhou
Kolkata
Gwadar
Hanoi
Zhanjiang
Colombo
Nairobi
Kuala
Lumpur
Jakarta
Sources: Belt and Road Portal, China’s National Development and Reform Commission
Military Power
Though still largely untested, China’s military has been transformed since it last fought a war, against Vietnam in 1979. It has rearmed and either copied, developed or bought many of the missile and stealth technologies required of a 21st century superpower. By now it spends more than three times as much on defense as Russia, and it is closing a still enormous gap with the U.S. While China still lacks the carrier fleets and other equipment to project power to all corners of the globe, and can’t yet produce a top-flight jet engine, its capabilities close to home have already changed U.S. calculations in the disputed South China Sea, as well as for any potential conflict over Taiwan.
Top 15 Defense Budgets, 2017
$66.3B
$63.9B
4.3%
Russia
2.5%
India
$57.8B
$47.2B
$228.2B
2.3%
France
1.8%
U.K.
1.9%
China*
$609.8B
3.1% of GDP
U.S.
$39.2B
$29.3B
$45.4B
2.6%
South Korea
1.4%
Brazil
0.9%
Japan
$20.6B
$27.5B
2.0%
Australia
1.3%
Canada
$29.2B
$69.4B
$44.3B
1.5%
Italy
10%
Saudi Arabia**
1.2%
Germany
$18.2B
2.2%
Turkey
* Sipri estimate. **Figures for Saudi Arabia are for the adopted budget, rather than actual expenditure.
Note: Figures are in USD at 2017 prices and exchange rates.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The most remarkable part of China’s military modernization is just how affordable it has been, even accounting for a large suspected underreporting of defense spending in official statistics. As China’s defense spending has risen from around $19 billion in 1989 to $228 billion today in 2016 dollars, the cost as a percentage of GDP has barely changed, probably remaining below 2 percent. As a share of government spending, the burden imposed on China by its defense budgets has actually fallen to a third of what it once was.
Rising Chinese Defense Expenditures...
...Have Become a Smaller Share of
Government Spending
20%
$250B
Sipri estimate (2017) $228.2B
Reflects boom
in overall government
outlays
Official (2018) $174.6B
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
1989
2017
1989
2017
Note: Defense expenditures are in constant dollars.
Sources: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Xinhua
In some areas, like the number of heavy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) it either has or exports, China has overtaken the U.S. already. Its navy is growing fast, too. By focusing in areas such as attack submarines and missile technology, China has been able to alter the balance of forces with the U.S. at relatively low cost. However, in terms of the big-ticket items—such as aircraft carriers—China would need to project force around the globe and it has a long way to go. And many of the new Chinese platforms remain untested in action, making it difficult to assess how great a threat to U.S. ships or aircraft they would in reality present.
Military Strength Compared
China
U.S.
2M / 1.3M
1,966 / 3,424
246 / 793
383 / 2,645
162 / 157
Active duty
personnel
Tactical
aircraft
Attack
helicopters
Transport
helicopters
Bombers
84 / 658
18 / 530
27 / 111
628 / 15
1 / 11
Tanker
aircraft
Transport
aircraft
AWACS
Heavy
UAVs
Aircraft
carriers
57 / 54
82 / 96
24 / 31
70 / 400
4 / 14
Principal
amphibious
ships
Attack
submarines
Cruisers/
destroyers/
frigates
ICBM
launchers
Nuclear
submarines
Note: Figures for 2017
Sources: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; International Institute for Strategic Studies Military Balance 2018.
When it comes to the ultimate, nuclear deterrent, though, China remains a bit player compared with the U.S. or Russia. China has shown more interest in developing an edge in new technologies—such as hypersonic missiles, cyber and artificial intelligence—than in trying to match nuclear stockpiles left over from the Cold War.
Estimated Global Nuclear Warhead Inventories, 2018
Deployed
Stockpiled
Retired
Russia
1,600
2,750
2,500
6,850
U.S.
1,750
2,050
2,650
6,450
France
300
280 Stockpiled
China
U.K.
215
Pakistan
140-150
India
130-140
Israel
80
North
Korea
10-20
Note: Data as of June 2018
Source: Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists
The same is true of military bases. The U.S. Department of Defense says it operates 516 military installations in 41 countries around the world, including 42 that are large or medium-size bases. China established its first official overseas base in Djibouti last year. In the East and South China seas, however, China enjoys a home-base advantage, and it is gradually extending that strong presence into the Indian Ocean.
Struggle for Dominance
China
U.S.
India
Potential
Naval base
Qingdao
CHINA
Busan
Yokosuka
Ningbo
INDIA
Okinawa
Zhanjiang
Gwadar
Kyaukpyu
Visakhapatnam
Mumbai
Hainan Island
Woody Island
Arabian Sea
Cam Ranh Bay
Andaman
and
Nicobar
Islands
Guam
Kochi
Djibouti
Spratly Islands
Malacca
Straits
Hambantota
port
Maldives
Changi
Tanzania
Seychelles
Diego Garcia
Darwin
Agalega
Island
Cocos
Keeling
Island
Indian Ocean
Mauritius
AUSTRALIA
Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg
Soft Power
A defining aspect of U.S. superpower, which emerged from the Cold War division of the globe, is the extensive network of alliances it enjoys. These range from the 29-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization to the 1951 Anzus pact with Australia and New Zealand, plus a number of bilateral military agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea, and the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance between the U.S., the U.K., Australia, Canada and New Zealand. China still has few formal allies, even within Asia.
China Ranks Low in Asia Regional Alliances
Index of security, military and allied relationships
76.7
Japan
7.8
North Korea
100
78.5
6.7
U.S.
South
Korea
China
33.7
Taiwan*
20.5
28.4
Thailand
Philippines
80.1
Australia
46
New Zealand
* Taiwan is included in the Index as a self-governing territory claimed by China.
Source: Lowy Institute
Peacekeeping is another noncoercive way to project influence around the globe. From playing almost no role in United Nations peacekeeping missions 20 years ago, China is today the largest troop contributor by far. It also pays more than 10 percent of the UN’s total budget—more than any country besides the U.S., which pays 28.5 percent.
Contributions of Uniformed Peacekeepers
China
U.S.
U.K.
France
Russia
Total uniformed personnel
4K
3
2
1
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Sources: CSIS China Power Project, United Nations IPI Peacekeeping Database
Soft and political power rely in part on a superpower having a well-resourced corps of diplomats to get its message out around the globe and cajole countries into line with its interests. China has a relatively small, if well-regarded cadre of diplomats. Their numbers are growing, and their budget for next year has increased by 15.6 percent, about twice the rate of increase for defense. As a result, the budget for foreign affairs will have doubled since Xi came to power in 2013. At about $9.5 billion, though, that remains well below what the U.S. spends—even if President Donald Trump got his wish to cut the State Department budget, including USAID, from $55.6 billion in 2017 to $37.8 billion in 2019.
Culture counts. China has been rolling out Confucius centers around the world to promote the country and its views. It also sends tourists and students abroad by the millions. Trump’s “America First” approach has given China something of a free pass to present itself as the new leader on open borders and free trade, but even so, it lags the U.S. in cultural influence. That includes within China’s immediate neighborhood.
The U.S. Still Wields Outsize Cultural Influence in Asia
Index of cultural projection, information flows and people exchanges
40.8
15.8
Russia
Japan
93.9
49.5
25.0
U.S.
China
South Korea
42.9
21.3
India
Thailand
24.5
Malaysia
17.7
Singapore
22.4
Australia
Source: Lowy Institute
When it comes to technology, President Xi has made clear with his “Made in China 2025” initiative that he intends China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s dominant technology power, and soon. The same goes for artificial intelligence, although the target date there is a little later, in 2030. As Russian President Vladimir Putin famously said last year, whichever nation leads in AI “will be the ruler of the world.” China is investing and making impressive headway: It already leads the U.S. in supercomputers. But a continued dependence on U.S. chip production, as well as other hurdles, means China still has a distance to go, by most measures.
China Seeks to Challenge U.S. Dominance in AI
China
U.S.
Semiconductor production
Investment in AI companies
Chipmaker financing
AI experts
Mobile users
AAAI Conference presentations
AI companies
Equity funding to AI startups
Index of AI potential
0
20
40
60%
Note: Percentages are of global total, per input. Data drawn from 2017, except: Semiconductor Production (2015); Investment in AI companies (2012-2016); Data (2016); AAAI conference presentations (2015).
Sources: Deciphering China’s AI Dream, Oxford University
China certainly will be one of the world’s greatest powers, with an outsize influence in shaping the 21st century. But whether it overtakes the U.S. as a superpower remains in question; it seems likely, at the least, that it will take China more time to get there than its extraordinary growth over the past 20 years would suggest. A declining and aging population looks like the biggest risk to Xi’s ambitions. When the U.S. was in a similar position, emerging to overtake Great Britain as the world’s dominant superpower, from 1880 to 1950, its population tripled.
Methodology:
Regional power index is a projected distribution of economic, military and demographic resources in Asia in 2030 by Lowy Institute. It’s measured in terms of GDP, military expenditure and working-age population forecasts. These forecasts—premised on current assumptions—play into perceptions of power today.
Population estimates are from the United Nations Wrold Population Prospects 2017. The margin of uncertainty indicates the high low variants that are considered the reasonable upper and lower limits of realistic projections.
Regional alliance network is an index from Lowy Institute that quantifies the number, depth and combined strength of defense alliances in Asia, measured in terms of codified security guarantees, military personnel deployed in Asian countries, joint military training exercises, arms procurements from allied partners and years fought together in conflicts. Weighted 40% of defense networks.
Cultural influence is defined by Lowy Institute as the ability to shape international public opinion through cultural appeal and interaction, measured in terms of cultural projection, information flows, and people exchanges.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/...ialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook
@Taimur Khurram @Chinese-Dragon @Beast @Cookie Monster @xyxmt @BHarwana @Kabira
Your views?
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in Dalian on May 31, 2018. Photographer: Nang gongaq/Imaginechina via AP Photo
By Marc Champion and Adrian Leung
August 30, 2018
As the U.S. well knows, it’s expensive to be a superpower. The costs of maintaining a large military, leading diplomatic missions and providing aid to foreign countries all add up. The more China extends itself around the globe, the heavier the burden will be. While the country has deep pockets, there are economic and financial challenges at home, and if things go belly up domestically it could put strains on President Xi Jinping’s ambitions. As the Chinese general Sun Tzu wrote in “The Art of War” two and a half millennia ago, “first count the cost.”
So a key question for China is: What kind of great power does it want to become? Surely, China wants to dominate in Asia, its backyard. At that regional level, projections of the Middle Kingdom’s economic growth, population size and defense spending suggest it will have outstripped the U.S. by 2030.
China Is Projected to Overtake the U.S. as a Regional Power in Asia by 2030
Index of GDP, military expenditure and working age forecasts
11.4
Russia
60.0
U.S.
8.8
Japan
83.0
China
5.6
South Korea
55.6
India
4.0
Philippines
7.6
Pakistan
5.2
Bangladesh
11.7
Indonesia
Note: Projected distribution premised on current assumptions. GDP and military spending are in PPP terms.
Source: Lowy Institute
But being a regional great power isn’t the same as being a global superpower—a concept first used to describe the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the U.S. Here’s one definition:
“A ‘superpower’ is a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon,” writes Alice Lyman Miller, China scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and a former CIA analyst.
That requires excelling in multiple areas of power projection: economic, military and “soft” (political and cultural).
Economic Power
China is already an economic superpower. At purchasing power parity, which adjusts the value of a dollar for what it can buy in a given country, China now has a larger economy than the U.S. The gap is only likely to grow, given that China has far more people making and buying things, and they’re likely to get richer than they are today.
Just looking at the scale of an economy in terms of what it can buy domestically may be misleading, however. Superpowers buy military bases, influence and goods abroad. The high-tech stealth fighters they purchase have an international price. The dollars that China invests through its Belt and Road Initiative to connect with markets around the world are just dollars, with the same purchasing power as anyone else’s. One way to measure how much extra buying power China has on the global market each year is to look at its GDP growth in current dollars, unadjusted for inflation or purchasing power parity. That paints a different picture.
GDP at Purchasing Power Parity
China Nominal Growth
U.S. GDP
5-year moving average
Annual
China GDP
$35T
30%
30
25
Projected
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
2023
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
Source: IMF, based on PPP valuation
China’s people, the sheer number of highly motivated workers moving off the land and into the urban economy, have been the secret to its extraordinary success until now. But because of the former “one-child policy,” that source of growth is likely to disappear soon. According to United Nations projections, China’s 1.4 billion population is likely to decline sharply, beginning as soon as 2023.
China’s Changing Population
1.6B
Actual
Margin of uncertainty
1.4
1.2
Median estimate
1.0
0.8
0.6
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2017
Both to boost the long-term prospects of its own economy and to extend its influence, China has embarked on what is probably the most ambitious foreign investment campaign in history. President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative extends from China to Western Europe and other parts of the world by land and sea. It performs some of the functions of Washington’s large foreign aid budget, but more than that—it has the potential to create longer-term revenue, ties and dependencies. Even if China’s leaders don’t want to become the next global superpower, the need to promote and protect such widespread investments could yet take them there.
Belt and Road Initiative
Silk Road Economic Belt
Maritime Silk Road Initiative
Moscow
Duisburg
Rotterdam
Almaty
Urumqi
Bishkek
Venice
Istanbul
Samarkand
Dushanbe
Athens
Xi’an
CHINA
Tehran
Fuzhou
Guangzhou
Kolkata
Gwadar
Hanoi
Zhanjiang
Colombo
Nairobi
Kuala
Lumpur
Jakarta
Sources: Belt and Road Portal, China’s National Development and Reform Commission
Military Power
Though still largely untested, China’s military has been transformed since it last fought a war, against Vietnam in 1979. It has rearmed and either copied, developed or bought many of the missile and stealth technologies required of a 21st century superpower. By now it spends more than three times as much on defense as Russia, and it is closing a still enormous gap with the U.S. While China still lacks the carrier fleets and other equipment to project power to all corners of the globe, and can’t yet produce a top-flight jet engine, its capabilities close to home have already changed U.S. calculations in the disputed South China Sea, as well as for any potential conflict over Taiwan.
Top 15 Defense Budgets, 2017
$66.3B
$63.9B
4.3%
Russia
2.5%
India
$57.8B
$47.2B
$228.2B
2.3%
France
1.8%
U.K.
1.9%
China*
$609.8B
3.1% of GDP
U.S.
$39.2B
$29.3B
$45.4B
2.6%
South Korea
1.4%
Brazil
0.9%
Japan
$20.6B
$27.5B
2.0%
Australia
1.3%
Canada
$29.2B
$69.4B
$44.3B
1.5%
Italy
10%
Saudi Arabia**
1.2%
Germany
$18.2B
2.2%
Turkey
* Sipri estimate. **Figures for Saudi Arabia are for the adopted budget, rather than actual expenditure.
Note: Figures are in USD at 2017 prices and exchange rates.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The most remarkable part of China’s military modernization is just how affordable it has been, even accounting for a large suspected underreporting of defense spending in official statistics. As China’s defense spending has risen from around $19 billion in 1989 to $228 billion today in 2016 dollars, the cost as a percentage of GDP has barely changed, probably remaining below 2 percent. As a share of government spending, the burden imposed on China by its defense budgets has actually fallen to a third of what it once was.
Rising Chinese Defense Expenditures...
...Have Become a Smaller Share of
Government Spending
20%
$250B
Sipri estimate (2017) $228.2B
Reflects boom
in overall government
outlays
Official (2018) $174.6B
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
1989
2017
1989
2017
Note: Defense expenditures are in constant dollars.
Sources: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Xinhua
In some areas, like the number of heavy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) it either has or exports, China has overtaken the U.S. already. Its navy is growing fast, too. By focusing in areas such as attack submarines and missile technology, China has been able to alter the balance of forces with the U.S. at relatively low cost. However, in terms of the big-ticket items—such as aircraft carriers—China would need to project force around the globe and it has a long way to go. And many of the new Chinese platforms remain untested in action, making it difficult to assess how great a threat to U.S. ships or aircraft they would in reality present.
Military Strength Compared
China
U.S.
2M / 1.3M
1,966 / 3,424
246 / 793
383 / 2,645
162 / 157
Active duty
personnel
Tactical
aircraft
Attack
helicopters
Transport
helicopters
Bombers
84 / 658
18 / 530
27 / 111
628 / 15
1 / 11
Tanker
aircraft
Transport
aircraft
AWACS
Heavy
UAVs
Aircraft
carriers
57 / 54
82 / 96
24 / 31
70 / 400
4 / 14
Principal
amphibious
ships
Attack
submarines
Cruisers/
destroyers/
frigates
ICBM
launchers
Nuclear
submarines
Note: Figures for 2017
Sources: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; International Institute for Strategic Studies Military Balance 2018.
When it comes to the ultimate, nuclear deterrent, though, China remains a bit player compared with the U.S. or Russia. China has shown more interest in developing an edge in new technologies—such as hypersonic missiles, cyber and artificial intelligence—than in trying to match nuclear stockpiles left over from the Cold War.
Estimated Global Nuclear Warhead Inventories, 2018
Deployed
Stockpiled
Retired
Russia
1,600
2,750
2,500
6,850
U.S.
1,750
2,050
2,650
6,450
France
300
280 Stockpiled
China
U.K.
215
Pakistan
140-150
India
130-140
Israel
80
North
Korea
10-20
Note: Data as of June 2018
Source: Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists
The same is true of military bases. The U.S. Department of Defense says it operates 516 military installations in 41 countries around the world, including 42 that are large or medium-size bases. China established its first official overseas base in Djibouti last year. In the East and South China seas, however, China enjoys a home-base advantage, and it is gradually extending that strong presence into the Indian Ocean.
Struggle for Dominance
China
U.S.
India
Potential
Naval base
Qingdao
CHINA
Busan
Yokosuka
Ningbo
INDIA
Okinawa
Zhanjiang
Gwadar
Kyaukpyu
Visakhapatnam
Mumbai
Hainan Island
Woody Island
Arabian Sea
Cam Ranh Bay
Andaman
and
Nicobar
Islands
Guam
Kochi
Djibouti
Spratly Islands
Malacca
Straits
Hambantota
port
Maldives
Changi
Tanzania
Seychelles
Diego Garcia
Darwin
Agalega
Island
Cocos
Keeling
Island
Indian Ocean
Mauritius
AUSTRALIA
Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg
Soft Power
A defining aspect of U.S. superpower, which emerged from the Cold War division of the globe, is the extensive network of alliances it enjoys. These range from the 29-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization to the 1951 Anzus pact with Australia and New Zealand, plus a number of bilateral military agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea, and the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance between the U.S., the U.K., Australia, Canada and New Zealand. China still has few formal allies, even within Asia.
China Ranks Low in Asia Regional Alliances
Index of security, military and allied relationships
76.7
Japan
7.8
North Korea
100
78.5
6.7
U.S.
South
Korea
China
33.7
Taiwan*
20.5
28.4
Thailand
Philippines
80.1
Australia
46
New Zealand
* Taiwan is included in the Index as a self-governing territory claimed by China.
Source: Lowy Institute
Peacekeeping is another noncoercive way to project influence around the globe. From playing almost no role in United Nations peacekeeping missions 20 years ago, China is today the largest troop contributor by far. It also pays more than 10 percent of the UN’s total budget—more than any country besides the U.S., which pays 28.5 percent.
Contributions of Uniformed Peacekeepers
China
U.S.
U.K.
France
Russia
Total uniformed personnel
4K
3
2
1
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Sources: CSIS China Power Project, United Nations IPI Peacekeeping Database
Soft and political power rely in part on a superpower having a well-resourced corps of diplomats to get its message out around the globe and cajole countries into line with its interests. China has a relatively small, if well-regarded cadre of diplomats. Their numbers are growing, and their budget for next year has increased by 15.6 percent, about twice the rate of increase for defense. As a result, the budget for foreign affairs will have doubled since Xi came to power in 2013. At about $9.5 billion, though, that remains well below what the U.S. spends—even if President Donald Trump got his wish to cut the State Department budget, including USAID, from $55.6 billion in 2017 to $37.8 billion in 2019.
Culture counts. China has been rolling out Confucius centers around the world to promote the country and its views. It also sends tourists and students abroad by the millions. Trump’s “America First” approach has given China something of a free pass to present itself as the new leader on open borders and free trade, but even so, it lags the U.S. in cultural influence. That includes within China’s immediate neighborhood.
The U.S. Still Wields Outsize Cultural Influence in Asia
Index of cultural projection, information flows and people exchanges
40.8
15.8
Russia
Japan
93.9
49.5
25.0
U.S.
China
South Korea
42.9
21.3
India
Thailand
24.5
Malaysia
17.7
Singapore
22.4
Australia
Source: Lowy Institute
When it comes to technology, President Xi has made clear with his “Made in China 2025” initiative that he intends China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s dominant technology power, and soon. The same goes for artificial intelligence, although the target date there is a little later, in 2030. As Russian President Vladimir Putin famously said last year, whichever nation leads in AI “will be the ruler of the world.” China is investing and making impressive headway: It already leads the U.S. in supercomputers. But a continued dependence on U.S. chip production, as well as other hurdles, means China still has a distance to go, by most measures.
China Seeks to Challenge U.S. Dominance in AI
China
U.S.
Semiconductor production
Investment in AI companies
Chipmaker financing
AI experts
Mobile users
AAAI Conference presentations
AI companies
Equity funding to AI startups
Index of AI potential
0
20
40
60%
Note: Percentages are of global total, per input. Data drawn from 2017, except: Semiconductor Production (2015); Investment in AI companies (2012-2016); Data (2016); AAAI conference presentations (2015).
Sources: Deciphering China’s AI Dream, Oxford University
China certainly will be one of the world’s greatest powers, with an outsize influence in shaping the 21st century. But whether it overtakes the U.S. as a superpower remains in question; it seems likely, at the least, that it will take China more time to get there than its extraordinary growth over the past 20 years would suggest. A declining and aging population looks like the biggest risk to Xi’s ambitions. When the U.S. was in a similar position, emerging to overtake Great Britain as the world’s dominant superpower, from 1880 to 1950, its population tripled.
Methodology:
Regional power index is a projected distribution of economic, military and demographic resources in Asia in 2030 by Lowy Institute. It’s measured in terms of GDP, military expenditure and working-age population forecasts. These forecasts—premised on current assumptions—play into perceptions of power today.
Population estimates are from the United Nations Wrold Population Prospects 2017. The margin of uncertainty indicates the high low variants that are considered the reasonable upper and lower limits of realistic projections.
Regional alliance network is an index from Lowy Institute that quantifies the number, depth and combined strength of defense alliances in Asia, measured in terms of codified security guarantees, military personnel deployed in Asian countries, joint military training exercises, arms procurements from allied partners and years fought together in conflicts. Weighted 40% of defense networks.
Cultural influence is defined by Lowy Institute as the ability to shape international public opinion through cultural appeal and interaction, measured in terms of cultural projection, information flows, and people exchanges.
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@Taimur Khurram @Chinese-Dragon @Beast @Cookie Monster @xyxmt @BHarwana @Kabira
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