Disintegrating Pakistan: Moscow Perspective

[nightcrawler]

Full article: DefenceDog: Awaiting Disturbance-Afghanistan, Pakistan & Israel

Abstracts:

• expansion of operational activities of terrorist organizations in Pakistan and India and the weakening of nuclear Pakistan with the possible disintegration of its medium-term
• Borders with Iran and Pakistan is actually transparent and regularly crossed by nomads (more than 1.5 million people daily). Madrassas and mosques deobands wing (one of the fundamentalist currents in Islam) and refugee camps in the Pashtun areas of Pakistan - the main rear base of the Taliban in Afghanistan
• Reducing the number of Western troops in Afghanistan with a high degree of probability lead to an explosive growth of instability not only in its territory, but on the borders, including border areas of Pakistan and Iran, because, like the withdrawal of Soviet troops in the late 80's, will be interpreted by radical Islamists as another victory.
• The high level of separatism in Sindh, Balochistan and the border areas with Afghanistan, as well as the precedent of separation from Pakistan in the 70 years of East Bengal (Republic of Bangladesh) suggest the possibility of disintegration of the country in case of further weakening the central government.
• Problems of leadership of Syria and Saudi Arabia, paradoxically, weaken Israel's security is not less than the overthrow Mubarak in Egypt and the weakening of the Hashemite Jordan. In Syria, instead of avoiding war with Israel Assad regime levers of government can seize provoking a clash Islamists break up a country with unpredictable consequences. The fall of the royal dynasty in Riyadh will open the way to power on the Arabian Peninsula al-Qaeda and Iran, which in any case means the emergence of the southern border of Israel's dangerous potential adversary.