Did Iran Inadvertently Sacrifice Chabahar For The Sake Of Afghan Border Security?

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1259738003829854208

 

[Clutch]

Did Iran Inadvertently Sacrifice Chabahar For The Sake Of Afghan Border Security?

11 MAY 2020

The recent political crisis that exploded between Iran and Afghanistan after the former's security forces were accused of forcing over 50 of the latter's illegal immigrants into a river on their shared border (where the majority of them are thought to have perished) further threatens the viability of India's Chabahar Corridor, which might put the final nail in the coffin of this already seemingly doomed trans-regional connectivity project.
Mass Murder Of Migrants?

Iran and Afghanistan are locked in a bitter dispute after the former's security services were accused of forcing more than 50 of the latter's illegal immigrants into a river on their shared border where the majority of the victims are thought to have perished. Tehran denies the allegations and affirms that the tragic event took place entirely on its neighbor's territory without the Islamic Republic's involvement, but it's difficult to believe that so many people would have jumped into a river on their own volition without being compelled by urgent necessity to do so. Whatever the truth may be, this unexpected development further threatens the viability of India's Chabahar Corridor, which was already thrown into doubt after New Delhi signaled interest in the "Israeli"-led "Trans-Arabian Corridor" (TAP) last year.

India's TAP Opportunity

That trans-regional connectivity project presents a much shorter route for the South Asian state's exporters to transit on their way to the massive EU marketplace than going through the increasingly isolated Islamic Republic and then detouring through Russia en route to their final destination. The author analyzed precisely that in his piece last year about how "The Indo-'Israeli' Trans-Arabian Corridor Will Push Russia Closer To Pakistan", which also discussed the most likely alternative that Russia will pursue in response to this trend. The point in referencing that article in the present one is to emphasize the fact that Chabahar is even less attractive to India than before given the incident that just transpired on the Afghan border.

Spoiling The NSTC's "Saving Grace"

The "North-South Transport Corridor's" (NSTC) only "saving grace" at the time was the possibility of its eastern branch being utilized to an extent to expand Indian-Afghan, and further afield Indian-Central Asian, trade ties. That's a lot less likely to happen on the scale that India initially anticipated since its two main partners intensely distrust one another after what just happened. The US even chimed in on the incident, with Pompeo encouraging America's Afghan proxies "to undertake a full investigation and to seek to hold those perpetrators accountable", which can be interpreted as a clear hint for it to make political-legal demands upon Iran in order to ensure that bilateral relations remain irreparably damaged from this point onward.

The American Agenda

It's not just that the US is seeking to exploit this event in order to isolate Iran even further than ever before, this time from its Afghan and Indian partners, but also because it no longer has all that much of an interest in turning a blind eye to the Chabahar Corridor like it previously did. The Trump Administration interestingly issued a sanctions waiver for the project that stood in stark contrast to its official policy of isolating the Islamic Republic, which was earlier interpreted by the author as being driven by America's desire to have Iran facilitate India's expansion of economic influence into Central Asia so as to "softly contain" growing Chinese influence there.

That's no longer as important of a policy as it was previously was after the Secretary of State unveiled the US' new regional policy earlier this year, which the author analyzed in his piece at the time about how "The US' Central Asian Strategy Isn't Sinister, But That Doesn't Mean It'll Succeed". Of relevance, it's becoming ever more obvious that the US could very well rely upon Pakistan to facilitate its own expansion of economic influence into this geostrategic space through America's possible involvement in N-CPEC+, which could rely upon Chinese-financed transport infrastructure for reducing the costs of US exports to the landlocked region. This is much more preferable of a policy than letting Iran receive knock-off benefits from India's Chabahar Corridor.

Leading From The Front

Although it's sometimes advantageous for the US to "Lead From Behind" by proxy, other times it's much better for it to directly take matters into its own hands and lead from the front instead. This is especially the case when it no longer has to rely on its earlier policy of ironically allowing its shared interests in India's regional connectivity vision to indirectly benefit its Iranian rival. In fact, the strategic situation might soon be shifting to such an extent that the US might feel comfortable lifting its sanctions waiver on Chabahar for the very reason that India no longer has any use for the project after the TAP stands to improve upon its original economic logic and the sudden onset of Iranian-Afghan tensions renders its "saving grace" unviable.

Iran Shouldn't Risk Losing Face While Trying To Save Chabahar

It should be noted at this point that the Chabahar Corridor might still theoretically be saved if Iran is willing to humiliate itself by bowing down before Afghanistan's expected American-dictated political-legal demands, which could possibly happen after it let itself be humiliated by India several times already. Even so, that might not change anything in practical terms since India is already eyeing the much more economically reasonable TAP alternative and the US can possibly rely more on Pakistan to directly expand its economic influence into Central Asia. The lingering doubt (whether real, imagined, or exaggerated) about whether Iranian-Afghan relations can ever return to their previous level even if Tehran swallows its pride by doing what Kabul (which is in reality acting on behalf of Washington) demands of it would be enough to throw cold water on Chabahar for years to come.

Iran's Right To Border Security, But At What Cost To Connectivity?

With this in mind, it certainly seems to be the case that Iran inadvertently sacrificed Chabahar for the sake of security along its Afghan border. Regardless of what really happened, the Islamic Republic has the sovereign right to defend its territory from foreign threats, both "hard" in the sense of terrorist ones and "soft" when it comes to illegal immigrants. In fact, it can be argued that ISIS terrorists might even try to infiltrate into Iran from Afghanistan under the cover of being refugees, though that concern still wouldn't morally justify what Tehran is being accused of it's truly guilty as charged. Nevertheless, the takeaway is that an unexpected security incident (however it unfolded) along the Iranian-Afghan border might have irreversible consequences for Iran's trans-regional connectivity plans.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

The attack on Pakistan security forces on Iranian border, instigated from within Iranian soil can be looked into through this bigger picture.

 

[Aspen]

Gwadar’s biggest enemy isn’t Chabahar, it’s the incompetence of the Pakistani gov’t.

 

[Sineva]

Its funny but when I do a search online for the term "Indo-'Israeli' Trans-Arabian Corridor",which to be perfectly honest I`d never even heard of before which is rather surprising,the only reference that I can find is this rather mysterious "one world press" whos "about us" link tells you absolutely nothing about them,very curious for a self proclaimed "Global Think Tank".It kind of makes you wonder whos payroll they`re on....
The [sputnik] journalist who wrote this seems to be referencing an old israeli proposal dating back years ago to join the israeli rail network via jordan to an as yet unbuilt gcc railway across part of the arabian peninsula to theoretically bypass syria....
Sounds like a whole lot of wishful thinking to me,but hey...you never know.Still if the indians are putting all their hopes in this they may be waiting a looong time[LOL].
Sadly for the afghanis tho their only hope for freeing themselves from near total economic reliance on pakistan is still chabahar,but neither iran nor india seem in any real hurry to get it done,tho ironically the chump regime seems to understand its potential wider value and not just as a quid pro quo to its new indian vassal.
Personally if it was up to me and I was running iran I`d go and tell the indians to go and fvck themselves and offer chabahar to the chinese at a cut price rate,as the indians have clearly decided that their future lays not in independence and non alignment but instead being a us vassal state run by hindu fascists....sorry..."nationalists",so its pretty clear that they made their choice,tho it is rather funny,not to mention hard to believe these days,that they once had future "supa powa" ambitions of matching china.
Still none of this is potentially good news at all for pakistan as now that the us has india as it vassal on the sub continent its not like it really needs pakistan very much anymore and its not as if pakistan can just turn to china as a replacement as the chinese despite their new found wealth do seem to be rather stingy,operating more like loan sharks as much as political overlords.Perhaps we can describe this as vassalage with "chinese characteristics".

The attack on Pakistan security forces on Iranian border, instigated from within Iranian soil can be looked into through this bigger picture.

Weeeel....maybe if pakistan stopped fvcking about and actually got its ar$e into gear and started work building its side of the border fence......
I mean iran built its side literally years ago,tho admittedly that didnt completely stop terrorist attacks from groups operating on the pakistani side of the border.......
Still if both sides were fenced off and properly patrolled it would likely make things a lot quieter on either side of the border.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Weeeel....maybe if pakistan stopped fvcking about and actually got its ar$e into gear and started work building its side of the border fence......
I mean iran built its side literally years ago,tho admittedly that didnt completely stop terrorist attacks from groups operating on the pakistani side of the border.......
Still if both sides were fenced off and properly patrolled it would likely make things a lot quieter on either side of the border.

Hey Persian Einstein, if your fking Iran has build its border fence, how the fk these terrorists are coming over to Pakistan from Iranian soil to begin with? Ever thought about it you Majoosi turd?

The bigger question is, how this fking Hindu terrorist regime in east is taking their so called revenge of their losses in Kashmir on the border of Pakistan with Iran? either your fking Iran is complacent, cooperating with India or simply doesn't have any control over its side of Baluchistan/sistan provence. Choose your pick!

 

[Pan-Islamic-Pakistan]

Iranians have been treating Afghan refugees in this manner since the beginning. Unlike Pakistan, which generously hosted 3-5 million Afghans in peace and security, Iran has always viewed them as the enemy.

I hope our Tajik, Parsiwan, Hazara, and Shia friends in Afghanistan can see how much Izzat they get from Iran.

We will see more confrontation, skirmishes, and posturing from Iran against Afghanistan in the coming years, as all Iranian agents have been defeated and Taliban alone remains as the next government of Afghanistan.

Pakistan should be wary of the Indian-Iranian nexus of spreading terrorism into Pakistan. Recently BLF has been adopted by Iranians for that purpose.

Fencing the border is imperative. Iran is no longer our friend.

@H. Dawary

 

[Gentelman]

No one is yours.... Every counyry for their interests..
But we are unique, we have people here jin ky baap iran/KSA ya USA waale hein!

 

[Philosopher]

Ultimately, both Iran and Pakistan must collaborate together to improve their respective Baluchistan region. Increase security, root out any foreign meddling, increase the economy and development of that region. Only through these developments can we overcome the challenges. As far as Chahbahar and Gwadar are concerned, I think these two ports will notice their potentials better if we link them together.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

Divided muslim = no muslims. Pathetic afghans iranians sunniz shiaz all can go to hell for all i i care.

Divided scum

 

[Sineva]

Hey Persian Einstein, if your fking Iran has build its border fence, how the fk these terrorists are coming over to Pakistan from Iranian soil to begin with? Ever thought about it you Majoosi turd?

The bigger question is, how this fking Hindu terrorist regime in east is taking their so called revenge of their losses in Kashmir on the border of Pakistan with Iran? either your fking Iran is complacent, cooperating with India or simply doesn't have any control over its side of Baluchistan/sistan provence. Choose your pick!

Well,for a start I`m not iranian.In fact I`m about as western as you can get based on nationality,ethnicity and [nominal] religion.
Its funny,but if the threat of some iranian based indian aligned anti pak terrorists was real then you would think that at the very least pakistan would have built and heavily fortified its section of the border wall years ago instead of only just getting started.Not only that but that it would`ve also made strenuous efforts to destroy or neutralize anti iranian terror groups based in pakistan and launching cross border attacks so as to remove any justification of a quid-pro-quo style excuse by iran.
The fact that pakistan has as yet failed to do so on either count does tend to raise the point of whether pakistan is either unwilling or simply perhaps unable to do these things.One certainly gets the feeling that iranian pakistan border security was traditionally a very low priority for pakistan which is kind of funny if theres the sort of threat that you seem to imply,then again perhaps unlike you they dont see the invisible black hand of india everywhere.
Security is a two way street my friend,if you`re not going to do your part and help to provide security to your neighbor then your neighbor is under no obligation to take your security interests into account in the least.In addition security is a bit like the old cliche about freedom,ie freedom aint free,so if you`re not prepared to spend the money on it then you really shouldnt bitch and moan,now should you?
So before you start getting so idiotically self righteous in your indignation you should perhaps stop and realise that iran also has its legitimate security concerns and so far has done far,far more for border security than pakistan.So maybe when you guys have done at least as much,maybe then you might have the right to bitch and moan,otherwise it just sounds really pathetic....not to mention paranoid.

 

[H. Dawary]

Iranians have been treating Afghan refugees in this manner since the beginning. Unlike Pakistan, which generously hosted 3-5 million Afghans in peace and security, Iran has always viewed them as the enemy.

I hope our Tajik, Parsiwan, Hazara, and Shia friends in Afghanistan can see how much Izzat they get from Iran.

We will see more confrontation, skirmishes, and posturing from Iran against Afghanistan in the coming years, as all Iranian agents have been defeated and Taliban alone remains as the next government of Afghanistan.

Pakistan should be wary of the Indian-Iranian nexus of spreading terrorism into Pakistan. Recently BLF has been adopted by Iranians for that purpose.

Fencing the border is imperative. Iran is no longer our friend.

@H. Dawary

Iran wants to be a regional power, I think they have the capacity, but they don't have any nukes. It is after all in their best interest to undermine its neighbours whom she views as a threat. Iran doesn't really care about Pakistanis or Afghans, but uses the Shia ideologue to further its objectives, hence the Zainebyoun and Fatimyoun fighters, they took advantage of the opportunities presented to them and have achieved their full potential due to Shiaism, if there wasn't any hostility with America and US lingered in AFG for a bit longer then we'd be in serious trouble with them.

Our chance is coming...

The central Asian Republics are waiting for us, once peace is established in the region, our first two priorities must be the gas pipeline of Turkmenistan and extending CPEC into Afghanistan, for that reason I want Pakistan to hang on and not make any big moves against India or in Kashmir, we must first secure our influence there and Iran itself will be put in check with our overwhelming influence. Ou

There are some threads that are started by Pakistanis, which LOOK like they discuss or highlight real news/information related to Iran and Pakistan, and for the most part, they end up just being good cannon fodder for trolls and Iran haters to take out their hate. We recently were notified on PDF of a banned list of words, but this thread already looks like it has enough hate, without using those "banned words".

THis guy @Pan-Islamic-Pakistan -is a true hypocrite- He is claiming here that Iran treats Afghans like SHT, but BASED ON EVIDENCE ON PDF, Pakistanis look down on Afghans the MOST, by far. I dont see a thread on PDF with Iranians or any other group talking so down and abusively to Afghans,(lets not even get into the fact that Pakistan is party responsible for the mess that Afghanistan is) but Pakistanis do it, on multiple threads. that tells me all i need to know.

THis @Pan-Islamic-Pakistan - i remember the thread where u said "Pakistanis are the nicest people", but honestly, since then, i am cataloging your hate for non-Pakistanis. On one thread about Libya you said "good, there will be no Shia in Libya". what exactly does that mean and prove? that you are a sectarianist!, but weirdly enough, you accused me of being racist in that Asian thread, so you were just projecting. You will always say you are nice, but in the same thread give others hate. we hate to see it...

@Pan-Islamic-Pakistan is by far the most honest user on here, but why do you take offence when he speaks upon the best interest of his nation?

I for one whenever reading your posts get the idea of a hard-line realist. You probably understand Hans Morgenthau's principle of power... "Nations pursue their interests in the form of power", you have defended Iran numerous times for encroaching and crossing that line and argue on their behalf, in terms of power you made sense, but in terms of morality you did not. Iran is not this innocent nation you project it to be, whatever your inclinations towards it, you understand that we will pursue our interests in the same manner Iran is.

And as far as Pakistanis frustration towards Afghans, I sympathise with them to an extent, especially when we claim a large chunk of their land, and are being housed in their nation and yet speaking bad about their nation, any man would be angry at this, I would be as well. However, despite this, on a government level they are still kind towards us and the refugees that are still in Pakistan. Compare the treatment of Afghans in Pakistan to Iran, in which nation do you think an Afghan has more rights?

 

[Sineva]

Ultimately, both Iran and Pakistan must collaborate together to improve their respective Baluchistan region. Increase security, root out any foreign meddling, increase the economy and development of that region. Only through these developments can we overcome the challenges. As far as Chahbahar and Gwadar are concerned, I think these two ports will notice their potentials better if we link them together.

Sadly its one of those completely obvious great ideas that seems to be so utterly simple in theory,yet it is completely impossible to achieve politically in reality.
This inability to achieve even the simplest of common sense ideas such as this are simply part of the costs of us/western vassalage for india and pakistan and part of the costs of non alignment and the rejection of us/western vassalage by iran.
In addition you also have the geo political competition between chinas rising influence and us attempts to contain it,and of course theres also indias traditional fear of china as well.
Pity really.......

 

[Sineva]

Iran wants to be a regional power, I think they have the capacity, but they don't have any nukes. It is after all in their best interest to undermine its neighbours whom she views as a threat. Iran doesn't really care about Pakistanis or Afghans, but uses the Shia ideologue to further its objectives, hence the Zainebyoun and Fatimyoun fighters, they took advantage of the opportunities presented to them and have achieved their full potential due to Shiaism, if there wasn't any hostility with America and US lingered in AFG for a bit longer then we'd be in serious trouble with them.

Our chance is coming...

The central Asian Republics are waiting for us, once peace is established in the region, our first two priorities must be the gas pipeline of Turkmenistan and extending CPEC into Afghanistan, for that reason I want Pakistan to hang on and not make any big moves against India or in Kashmir, we must first secure our influence there and Iran itself will be put in check with our overwhelming influence. Ou



@Pan-Islamic-Pakistan is by far the most honest user on here, but why do you take offence when he speaks upon the best interest of his nation?

I for one whenever reading your posts get the idea of a hard-line realist. You probably understand Hans Morgenthau's principle of power... "Nations pursue their interests in the form of power", you have defended Iran numerous times for encroaching and crossing that line and argue on their behalf, in terms of power you made sense, but in terms of morality you did not. Iran is not this innocent nation you project it to be, whatever your inclinations towards it, you understand that we will pursue our interests in the same manner Iran is.

And as far as Pakistanis frustration towards Afghans, I sympathise with them to an extent, especially when we claim a large chunk of their land, and are being housed in their nation and yet speaking bad about their nation, any man would be angry at this, I would be as well. However, despite this, on a government level they are still kind towards us and the refugees that are still in Pakistan. Compare the treatment of Afghans in Pakistan to Iran, in which nation do you think an Afghan has more rights?

I think that you`ll be waiting a very,very long time indeed for the TAPI pipeline to provide pak with any gas,the sad irony of course is that you easily could`ve had the IP pipeline up and running for several years now giving all the gas that you`d need.....if only pakistan had had the courage to put its own interests first rather than americas.Still thats simply the cost of vassalage,right?
As for iran and its current non-nuclear weapons status,all that would be required to change this is a simple political decision,one that in fact could`ve been taken at any time in the last 10 to 15 years.Indeed with the current rise of the right wing in the west and the failure of the reformists jcpoa and their "dialogue between civilizations",I think that the very real possibility of a nuclear armed iri only keeps increasing.....

 

[Pan-Islamic-Pakistan]

@Pan-Islamic-Pakistan is by far the most honest user on here, but why do you take offence when he speaks upon the best interest of his nation?

I have reported him for breaking forum rules. He is discussing me as a member, without discussing the issue at hand.

Also, he lies about my statement. I said that I am glad Libya has no Shias, so there is no chance for a sectarian war there, which would only add to more trouble for Libya.

Leave him, he is unimportant.

And as far as Pakistanis frustration towards Afghans, I sympathise with them to an extent, especially when we claim a large chunk of their land, and are being housed in their nation and yet speaking bad about their nation, any man would be angry at this, I would be as well. However, despite this, on a government level they are still kind towards us and the refugees that are still in Pakistan. Compare the treatment of Afghans in Pakistan to Iran, in which nation do you think an Afghan has more rights?

Pakistanis have some growing up to do. We have a habit of knee jerk reactions, but I think most of us are sensible and kind towards Afghans on a personal level. Most of the most anti-Afghan members have not met anyone from Afghanistan, so they rely on media which is always sensational.

Afghanistan is the same way. Media brainwashes them to hate Pakistanis as the other, but when both meet, it is like long lost brothers are re-united.

The central Asian Republics are waiting for us, once peace is established in the region, our first two priorities must be the gas pipeline of Turkmenistan and extending CPEC into Afghanistan, for that reason I want Pakistan to hang on and not make any big moves against India or in Kashmir, we must first secure our influence there and Iran itself will be put in check with our overwhelming influence.

Pakistan will have to face India in the near future, with Iran supporting them. We have come to accept this reality from their actions. Modi wants a war to distract from the internal destruction of India on his own missteps with his Indian Muslim minority.

However, I do not see any scenario where India will emerge victorious, there is just too much of a difference of quality between Pakistan military and Indian mob pretending to be an army.

They thought that TTP terrorist and daily bombings would make us weak and destroy us, we lost 75,000 lives, including 25,000 security personnel, however Pakistan has benefited greatly by becoming a battle-hardened fighting force.

Our one weakness was our soft treatment of Iran. Now that deficiency is being ironed out. With Iranian support of BLA and BLF terrorist groups and hosting Indian terrorist operatives in Chahbahar, ties between us are only going to get worse. Our COAS just recently phoned Iranian counterpart to "discuss" this issue.

As Iranians continue to mistreat Afghans, Afghanistan too will start applying pressure on IIranians. The eastern border of Iran has once again become hostile.

How many battles does Iran honestly hope to fight against its neighbors?

I think that you`ll be waiting a very,very long time indeed for the TAPI pipeline to provide pak with any gas,the sad irony of course is that you easily could`ve had the IP pipeline up and running for several years now giving all the gas that you`d need.....if only pakistan had had the courage to put its own interests first rather than americas.Still thats simply the cost of vassalage,right?
As for iran and its current non-nuclear weapons status,all that would be required to change this is a simple political decision,one that in fact could`ve been taken at any time in the last 10 to 15 years.Indeed with the current rise of the right wing in the west and the failure of the reformists jcpoa and their "dialogue between civilizations",I think that the very real possibility of a nuclear armed iri only keeps increasing.....

Iranian gas was too expensive and the whole project was bloated. Zardari signed that agreement as a final point to improve his standing while he was being voted out.

At that time, Pakistanis had a very favorable opinion of Iran. We still had not seen Kulbushan Yadav, Sulemani's threats, and Iranian support of BLA and BLF.

The central Asian Republics are waiting for us, once peace is established in the region, our first two priorities must be the gas pipeline of Turkmenistan and extending CPEC into Afghanistan,

I agree 100%. Pakistan already has plans to continue TAP pipeline. We are suffering a huge energy deficiency due to expensive Qatar LNG (horrible deal signed by Nawaz Sharif) and unreliable, erratic ties to other Gulf countries due to Indian and US meddling.

First Afghan Taliban government needs to be established, then systems of pipelines, roads, facilities can be built. Afghanistan, like Pakistan, can benefit through transit fees from China and other future buyers.

The other point is that Central Asian countries are desperate for Islamic knowledge, they have severe shortage of scholars and teachers of Islamic fiqh and tafsir. Pakistan and Afghanistan can provide religious education to these former Soviet republics. It will bring them back to the Islamic world, and fight off some social ills which are hurting them.