Here 'they' means we. If this thing is going to cost what a flight will cost, then we should also not expect a lakh people to travel on it. I am fine with public infrastructure projects getting constructed at breakeven or even a little less than break even, if millions are going to use it. But this thing, I am afraid is not that. We are not learning from other's lessons here. If we subsidize some regular passengers with an infrastructure project then it is fine. But subsidizing high cost railway, that too at a risky price should have been debated. Sadly we would have more discussion about stupid remarks by politicians than real issues like this in India.
Even USA is still considering whether high speed rail is profitable. Chinas bullet trains are said to be unprofitable for a long time now. And they have crushed their bleeding airlines more. Indian airline industry has only one profitable low-cost airline(I have no sympathy for them though). But my point is instead of spending money on creating alternatives for high cost travel, we can spend on projects targeting more number of people.
I disagree with your view.
USA can afford to ponder over whether they should build HSR, we, just like the Chinese, cannot.
The reason - USA's landmass to population ratio is utterly
ridiculous. Their major cities span thousands of kilometers from each other. And HSR only makes sense (comfort/cost) when it is short to medium distances in
densely populated areas.
For USA building HSR across their major points of interest would mean many many hundreds of billions of dollars.
Particularly when their society does not like train travel. Their citizens prefer taking their cars even where comfortable rail options are avilable.
For us, rail is not a choice, it is a necessity. Ultimately, as costs spiral downward, HSR will become the mainstay of rail travel.
In this particular case, the financing seems to be the clincher. If GoI were to be spending their own budget money on HSR(ie $15 billion) on it, I would cry foul. It would make much much more sense that GoI spent that amount on Indian Railways to upgrade average speed from current 70-90kmph to 150 kmph across India and increase tracklength by a multifold.
However, the GoI is not spending its own money.The GoI has already tied up massive financing for IR using LIC funds. So funds for IR are also not a problem...GoI is starting to invest big amounts in IR
already. Case in point - Billion dollar deals for loco factories signed with Alstom and GE that had been promised for donkey years but were only done
now.
The current investment plan in IR is impressive already.
The Japanese are spending in this case. The amount is massive. It would have very high spinoff benefits over very wide facets for the economy as a whole and the payback period is humungous. After 50 years, India's economy will indeed find $15 billion peanuts to pay back. The Japanese have also submitted a financial/economic viability report to the GoI that states that the project will make business sense. They have chosen what is probably the most affluent section of India - that between Gujarat and Mumbai.
I am firmly in favour of this project. I wish it goes through as a pilot project and let us see how it turns out. I am optimistic.
That means the japanese will have to bear this white elephant till its end of life and will have to recover the money from sale of ticket and not from teh govt.
??
