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Death of Oil States

SouI

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http://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...els-electric-vehicles-investors-a7557756.html

Global fossil fuel demand set to fall from 2020, three centuries after the dawn of the Industrial Revolution


Solar panels and electric vehicles are becoming cheaper so quickly that demand for oil and coal will peak in just three years, report predicts


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The Independent Online
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Barack Obama chose the Copper Mountain Solar Project in Nevada to talk about his energy policies, but Donald Trump has different prioritiesAFP/Getty Images
Demand for coal and oil will peak in 2020 as the renewable energy revolution gathers pace and undercuts fossil fuels on price, according to a new report.


It found that significant declines in the cost of solar panels and electric vehicles would reduce demand for fossil fuels, warning investors that relying on current industry projections might be a mistake that would leave their money “stranded” in worthless projects.

Cheaper electric vehicles, for example, could cut the market for oil by two million barrels a day by 2025 – “the same volume that cause the oil price collapse in 2014-15”, the report said.


Its authors, from the Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker think tank, suggested their projections could actually underplay the speed of the switch to a low-carbon economy.

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Technological improvements and the risks posed by climate change were building momentum with rising levels of investment, research and public support in and for renewables.

And that, the report said, “could result in a global explosion of low-carbon technology deployment in the coming decades”.

The cost of solar panels has fallen by 85 per cent in seven years with battery costs dropping by 73 per cent over a similar period, while demand for electric vehicles has been growing by about 60 per cent each year.

Solar electricity was on track to become “materially cheaper than alternative power options globally”, the report said.


Solar power employs more people than oil, coal and gas combined
“In such a scenario of rapid change, the mass stranding of downstream fossil fuel assets is highly likely,” it said.

The experts predicted the growth in demand for coal and oil would stop from 2020 and begin to fall.

Solar energy alone could provide 29 per cent of global power generation by 2050, resulting in the total phasing out of coal and leaving natural gas with a market share of just one per cent, it added.

The figures are in marked contrast to those produced by major oil companies.

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One industry estimate puts the total contribution from all renewables to global power generation at just 11 per cent by 2040.

Luke Sussams, a senior researcher at Carbon Tracker, said: “Electric vehicles and solar power are game-changers that the fossil fuel industry consistently underestimates.

“Further innovation could make our scenarios look conservative in five years' time, in which case the demand misread by companies will have been amplified even more.”

The switch to low-carbon technologies would help prevent global temperatures rising to a point where climate change becomes particularly dangerous – generally accepted as between 1.5C and 2C above pre-industrial levels – the report said.

But the researchers stressed that their projections were based not on the need to address climate change, but purely financial considerations.

Ajay Gambhir, senior research fellow at Imperial, said: “Most low-carbon pathways analysis considers what needs to be done to meet ambitious climate targets like 2C.

“Here we’ve looked at what would happen to the global energy system and global temperature if the lowest-cost options are deployed, in light of the latest projections of PV [solar panels] and electric vehicle costs.

“It’s time we fully understood the implications of these technologies’ relentless ride down the cost curve.”
 
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Not a death, but no more demands on their oil. Crude oil might no longer has an economic value, so these states have to work hard on creating oil derivatives products depending on their oil reserves and then exporting them.
 
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Algeria and other countries in the Arab Maghreb (e.g. Morocco) will likely dominate the solar energy industry in the coming decades due to their favorable geographic conditions.

I don't think the GCC states will be able to become relevant solar energy producing countries.
 
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What about the growing gas and oil consumption in Asia, Africa and South America? Usually such analyzes are prone to have a hefty Western-centric approach.
Actually, demand seems to be decreasing even in places like Asia due to worldwide economic slowdowns.

Furthermore, the real problem is breaking even. It'll be hard for the GCC states and other oil producing countries to break even from now on due to the rise of unconventional competitors and alternative sources of energy. Plus, a lot of the oil being extracted in the Gulf these days is being utilized domestically.

Economically speaking, gas-rich countries are much luckier than oil-producing countries though, so I don't expect countries like Qatar to experience the same kinds of setbacks as the likes of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.
 
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there is alot of countries sucsess without any oil why not to try to be one of those?

you need to decrease the oil to 20-30% of exports that helthy economy should be
 
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there is alot of countries sucsess without any oil why not to try to be one of those?

you need to decrease the oil to 20-30% of exports that helthy economy should be
The UAE is the only country that genuinely attempted to diversify away from oil, but even the UAE is struggling.

Honestly, diversification is easier said than done, especially when your part of the world literally has nothing else to offer.

Tourism has many limitations, and it's not enough to move a country away from its dependence on oil revenues, especially a large and populous country such as Saudi Arabia.

What else is there? It's too late for us to embrace industrialization since the majority of people around here aren't going to accept working in factories and manufacturing plants.

The only things left are finance and the service industry.

Qatar wants to become a knowledge-based economy by 2030. The Qataris might pull it off since they're lucky enough to live in a small country with a very small population of citizens. Managing the Qatari economy will be as easy as managing the economy of Brunei. These kinds of small and lowly-populated countries can find it easy to maintain their wealth and GDP per capita indefinitely. But for countries like Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE, this will be a very difficult task.
 
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Stop subsidizing people to start charging taxes and people will go to work to invest in education and study engineering subjects establishment of high-tech companies like any other country that has no oil
 
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Stop subsidizing people to start charging taxes and people will go to work to invest in education and study engineering subjects establishment of high-tech companies like any other country that has no oil
That's what the governments are trying to do, but it might lead to civil unrest.
 
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Not a death, but no more demands on their oil. Crude oil might no longer has an economic value, so these states have to work hard on creating oil derivatives products depending on their oil reserves and then exporting them.

What, you mean to say that 1.5 billion South Asian people are going to be driving electric cars from 2020 onwards.

Not a chance. Oil is here to stay for a very long time. New markets are emerging all the time and they all need more plenty of oil.
 
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What, you mean to say that 1.5 billion South Asian people are going to be driving electric cars from 2020 onwards.

Not a chance. Oil is here to stay for a very long time. New markets are emerging all the time and they all need more plenty of oil.
oil will over in few dacede

No one will accept this lol.
what you do when oil over?
 
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