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Tropical Cyclone One-A Develops in Arabian Sea; Potential Danger to India, Pakistan Into Next Week
At a Glance
A tropical cyclone has developed in the Arabian Sea and is expected to intensify and could become one of the strongest to threaten parts of western India and eastern Pakistan in more than two decades.
Tropical Cyclone One-A continues to organize in the southeastern Arabian Sea, a couple of hundred miles west of southern India's Kerala coast. Meteorologists refer to this disturbance as Invest 92A, a designation for an area of interest that could develop into a tropical cyclone.
This system is expected to be called Cyclone Tauktae (pronounced TAW-tay).
Given an ample supply of warm – about 88 degrees Fahrenheit – deep ocean water, humid air and low wind shear, Tauktae could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a formidable hurricane this weekend.
The future Tauktae is expected to track toward the north-northwest, generally parallel to the coast of western India, this weekend. The key is how close to the coast Tauktae's center tracks.
For now, the majority of forecast model tracks suggest the center may stay just far enough off the coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra states to spare the most severe impacts. But a few forecast model tracks keep Tauktae closer to the coast, if not an outright landfall. Mumbai – home to 20 million in its metro area – may have a close brush with Tauktae late Sunday night or early Monday.
After that, Tauktae could eventually threaten India's Gujarat state and perhaps southeast Pakistan next week.
It's still too soon to determine if Tauktae will strike one or both of those areas, but it could reach as far north as Pakistan's most populous city, Karachi, and be the strongest in these areas since a May 1999 cyclone made landfall near the India-Pakistan border.
Potential Path, Timing
(The area in the red-shaded area is where the cyclone's center may track and the general timing of that track. Note that impacts from a tropical cyclone typically occur some distance from the center.)
Potential Impacts
Rainfall flooding
Even if Tauktae's center remains appreciably off western India's coast this weekend, bands of heavy rain are likely to wrap into southwest India, leading to a threat of rainfall flooding. The best chance of heavy rainbands will be over Kerala and Karnataka states. If Tauktae's center tracks farther east and much closer to the coast, a higher threat of heavy rain will spread to Maharashtra state, including Mumbai.
Heavy rain will also accompany Tauktae into Gujarat state and Pakistan, but exactly where the heaviest rain will fall depends on the exact track of Tauktae, which remains uncertain.
Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday
(Locally heavier amounts are possible where bands of rain train over the same area for a period of a few hours. Rainfall totals farther north are more uncertain and depend on the exact path of Tauktae.)
Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge
Tauktae will generate swells that will ride up the coast of western India this weekend. This may lead to erosion at beaches and at least some coastal flooding, particularly at high tide.
Where more dangerous, life-threatening storm surge could occur remains uncertain and is dependent on the exact track. This would occur as the cyclone makes landfall generally ahead of and just to the east of its landfall location.
Cyclones in Pakistan are even rarer.
Only four cyclones of at least tropical storm strength have tracked within 70 miles of Karachi, home to about 14 million along the southeast coast of Pakistan, in records dating to 1902. A weakening Cyclone Phet was the last to do so as a tropical storm, then depression, in 2010.
But Pakistan's strongest cyclone was the aforementioned May 20, 1999, landfall southeast of Karachi near the India border at Category 3 intensity. According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, an estimated 6,200 were killed in Pakistan from storm surge and heavy rain, despite warnings from the government.
Visible satellite image of the May 20, 1999, cyclone making landfall in far southeast Pakistan.
(NOAA)
There have been 14 cyclones of at least Category 3 intensity in the Arabian Sea since 1998, including last November's Cyclone Gati, the first hurricane-strength cyclone to hit Somalia on record.
A 2020 study found that while the number of tropical cyclones hasn't increased globally, climate change has contributed to an increase in Arabian Sea cyclones, as well as in other basins, since 1980.
weather.com
At a Glance
- A tropical cyclone has developed and is expected to intensify in the Arabian Sea this weekend.
- To be named Tauktae, it could scrape up the west Indian coast with heavy rain, winds and coastal flooding.
- Tauktae could then threaten Gujarat state and eastern Pakistan early next week.
A tropical cyclone has developed in the Arabian Sea and is expected to intensify and could become one of the strongest to threaten parts of western India and eastern Pakistan in more than two decades.
Tropical Cyclone One-A continues to organize in the southeastern Arabian Sea, a couple of hundred miles west of southern India's Kerala coast. Meteorologists refer to this disturbance as Invest 92A, a designation for an area of interest that could develop into a tropical cyclone.
This system is expected to be called Cyclone Tauktae (pronounced TAW-tay).
Given an ample supply of warm – about 88 degrees Fahrenheit – deep ocean water, humid air and low wind shear, Tauktae could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a formidable hurricane this weekend.
The future Tauktae is expected to track toward the north-northwest, generally parallel to the coast of western India, this weekend. The key is how close to the coast Tauktae's center tracks.
For now, the majority of forecast model tracks suggest the center may stay just far enough off the coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra states to spare the most severe impacts. But a few forecast model tracks keep Tauktae closer to the coast, if not an outright landfall. Mumbai – home to 20 million in its metro area – may have a close brush with Tauktae late Sunday night or early Monday.
After that, Tauktae could eventually threaten India's Gujarat state and perhaps southeast Pakistan next week.
It's still too soon to determine if Tauktae will strike one or both of those areas, but it could reach as far north as Pakistan's most populous city, Karachi, and be the strongest in these areas since a May 1999 cyclone made landfall near the India-Pakistan border.
Potential Path, Timing
(The area in the red-shaded area is where the cyclone's center may track and the general timing of that track. Note that impacts from a tropical cyclone typically occur some distance from the center.)
Potential Impacts
Rainfall flooding
Even if Tauktae's center remains appreciably off western India's coast this weekend, bands of heavy rain are likely to wrap into southwest India, leading to a threat of rainfall flooding. The best chance of heavy rainbands will be over Kerala and Karnataka states. If Tauktae's center tracks farther east and much closer to the coast, a higher threat of heavy rain will spread to Maharashtra state, including Mumbai.
Heavy rain will also accompany Tauktae into Gujarat state and Pakistan, but exactly where the heaviest rain will fall depends on the exact track of Tauktae, which remains uncertain.
Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday
(Locally heavier amounts are possible where bands of rain train over the same area for a period of a few hours. Rainfall totals farther north are more uncertain and depend on the exact path of Tauktae.)
Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge
Tauktae will generate swells that will ride up the coast of western India this weekend. This may lead to erosion at beaches and at least some coastal flooding, particularly at high tide.
Where more dangerous, life-threatening storm surge could occur remains uncertain and is dependent on the exact track. This would occur as the cyclone makes landfall generally ahead of and just to the east of its landfall location.
Cyclones in Pakistan are even rarer.
Only four cyclones of at least tropical storm strength have tracked within 70 miles of Karachi, home to about 14 million along the southeast coast of Pakistan, in records dating to 1902. A weakening Cyclone Phet was the last to do so as a tropical storm, then depression, in 2010.
But Pakistan's strongest cyclone was the aforementioned May 20, 1999, landfall southeast of Karachi near the India border at Category 3 intensity. According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, an estimated 6,200 were killed in Pakistan from storm surge and heavy rain, despite warnings from the government.
Visible satellite image of the May 20, 1999, cyclone making landfall in far southeast Pakistan.
(NOAA)
There have been 14 cyclones of at least Category 3 intensity in the Arabian Sea since 1998, including last November's Cyclone Gati, the first hurricane-strength cyclone to hit Somalia on record.
A 2020 study found that while the number of tropical cyclones hasn't increased globally, climate change has contributed to an increase in Arabian Sea cyclones, as well as in other basins, since 1980.
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Tied Strongest Landfall On Record In India's Gujarat State | The Weather Channel
This pre-monsoon cyclone had a variety of impacts from southern India northward. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com
weather.com
