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Crisis in Sri Lanka: What is the lesson for Bangladesh?

Black_cats

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Published on 12:00 AM, April 02, 2022

Crisis in Sri Lanka: What is the lesson for Bangladesh?​


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Star Business Report

Despite repeated warnings from economists, Bangladesh so far hasn't taken any major stride toward diversification of its export basket. It still depends heavily on the garment sector.

The economic crisis in Sri Lanka caused by factors including a slump in foreign currency flow from two main sources -- tourism and remittances --- once again gives a reminder that diversification is a necessity, not an option.

Though Bangladesh's economy is apparently doing well, the crisis in Sri Lanka sends clear messages to the policymakers: pay heed to cautions and suggestions by economists, avoid the temptation of undertaking large projects unless those are economically viable and sequence borrowing in a way that does not pile up repayment pressure.

"The Sri Lankan crisis once again reminds us of the importance of export diversification," Prof Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said, adding that Bangladesh would be better prepared for avoiding shock-induced export downfall if it diversifies its product basket.

He said the Sri Lankan economists rightly pointed out the risks to its tourism and remittance dependent economy. They also suggested diversifying exports.

But the Sri Lankan government ignored the warnings and failed to diversify its exports, he added.

He said credible and timely data and evidence-based policymaking has become vital for Bangladesh as its economy is growing.

"If we are complacent and our decision-making is not evidence and data-driven, then our macroeconomic quality will suffer and put an adverse effect on economic momentum," he said.

Selim Raihan, executive director of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), said family-based politics is very strong in Sri Lanka and it has led to 'serious crony capitalism' in the Island nation.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Prime Minister Mahinda and Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, and Chamal Rajapaksa are brothers.

"If cronies become too powerful and do not give return to the country properly, it can lead to such economic disaster sometimes," he said, noting that the problem persists in many South Asian countries.

Citing Sri Lanka's failure to manage debt, he said, "We must make big infrastructure projects economically viable and link these to our mainstream economic development process."
"Sri Lanka's failure is a big lesson for us."

He said loans that Bangladesh takes should be used in a way that increases domestic productive capacity with respect to export diversification, skill development and enhancing private investment.

"We have been in a much better position (debt servicing) until now. Our borrowing has increased in recent years. We have to remember that the scope for getting loans at a cheaper rate will not be available as we have become a lower-middle-income country," he cautioned.

 
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@Black_cats

Kalo Beral Dada,

It still depends heavily on the garment sector.

You guys are well placed. Folks wont stop wearing clothes even in pandemics.

Regards
 
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@Black_cats

Kalo Beral Dada,

It still depends heavily on the garment sector.

You guys are well placed. Folks wont stop wearing clothes even in pandemics.

Regards
All that glitters is not gold. BD imports more than it exports. The trade deficit and repayment of loans are covered by the remittances our expatriates send home.

However, BD will not feel the pinch if the exports rises to $60 billion per year within the next few years. @Bilal9 says, it will reach that level within the next four or five years.

Let us hope so.
 
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Hope that Indians tates take a lesson from Sri Lanka’s situation and get back into their senses.
 
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Not really much.

BD is the most fiscally conservative country in S Asia and has good exports and remittance earnings.

It only borrows to fund critical infrastructure like power stations, roads, metros and railway lines and that nearly mainly on very easy repayment terms over many decades.

You know that BD economy is doing fairly well when it is lending hundreds of millions to dollars to other countries like Sri Lanka.
 
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@bluesky

Neel Akash Dada,

The trade deficit and repayment of loans are covered by the remittances our expatriates send home.

Which is good enough. Anyway growing countries are not expected to have a current account surplus. And as @UKBengali says external funds are available for infrastructure projects etc

Regards
 
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@bluesky

Neel Akash Dada,

the loan money for infrastructure projects need not be repaid. All the loan money approximately valued at $97 billion are free without repayment.

Really? That is astonishing!

But assuming you are only being sarcastic, as long as these projects earn a return (economic + financial + social) which is higher than the cost of capital it should be fine.

Regards
 
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Main lesson live within your means, no prestige projects.

Diversify exports sure but thats not the main thing. The critical thing is to have a balanced economy, political stability and not marginalise minorities and have retarded wars.

A country can only progress when it is inclusive and tries to lift its entire population.
 
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@bluesky

Neel Akash Dada,

the loan money for infrastructure projects need not be repaid. All the loan money approximately valued at $97 billion are free without repayment.

Really? That is astonishing!

But assuming you are only being sarcastic, as long as these projects earn a return (economic + financial + social) which is higher than the cost of capital it should be fine.

Regards
Yes, you are very right and this is why SL is asking other countries to help it repay its only $43 billion foreign loans. SL has the same thinking as you have, but now it finds unable to repay the money that it borrowed to build fancy projects.

By the way, can you cite only one country that has developed with borrowing from foreign sources? was it England, France, Germany, Japan, Singapore, South Korea or America that did so?

A country without resources and technologies builds its industries first by importing machines. Industries create wealth that can be invested to build infrastructures gradually.

Not only SL but also all the Latin countries thought the way you are thinking and all of them have almost ruined their future economic prospect. All because of investing foreign money to build nice roads that return money by taking 200 years. Whereas industries return money within 5 years.
 
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