CPEC a double edged sword???

[Al-Taïr]

For the past few weeks i have been reading a lot about this economic corridor but only the good thing like how this road is gonna boast our economy and make lives of 20mil people better. So I feel like be the critic here. At the moment I have three Potential risks of this project.

1. Despite the positive outlook of the CPEC, we also need to understand the potentially long run negative impact it shall have on Pakistan’s industrial sector. The goods from China will likely flood Pakistan’s market more rapidly, which will potentially slow down or in worse case cripple the local industry.

2.Excess of every thing is bad, & in this case it is our reliance on china. Pakistan needs to secure its own national interests and keep the balance of its relations with both China and the West for relying on one sphere of influence can damage relations with the other. By becoming a diplomatic balancer, as pointed out previously, Pakistan can get the best from both powers and bridge their sloppy relations.

3.(very pessimistic case) If every thing get out of hand and pakistan becomes the life line of china & russia. we will be ideal target for any agressor. and yes i dont think we have enough fire power to handle such an event, and we must not , we can not allow chinese armed forces on our soil in any case. (thats how the british came, just trade). So, I think with our bugdet and resources, It is wise not to become a point of interest.

So, the conclusion would be, that we must be very careful in the negotiation, our limited focus can hurt us in the long run. And the whole thing has the potential to blow up in our face. And due to our incompetency this thing can turn out to be the worst thing thing that ever happened to pak rather than the best thing.

by MECH

(+ve,-ve, neutral) reviews & views are welcomed

 

[Lurch Adams]

For the past few weeks i have been reading a lot about this economic corridor but only the good thing like how this road is gonna boast our economy and make lives of 20mil people better. So I feel like be the critic here. At the moment I have three Potential risks of this project.

1. Despite the positive outlook of the CPEC, we also need to understand the potentially long run negative impact it shall have on Pakistan’s industrial sector. The goods from China will likely flood Pakistan’s market more rapidly, which will potentially slow down or in worse case cripple the local industry.

2.Excess of every thing is bad, & in this case it is our reliance on china. Pakistan needs to secure its own national interests and keep the balance of its relations with both China and the West for relying on one sphere of influence can damage relations with the other. By becoming a diplomatic balancer, as pointed out previously, Pakistan can get the best from both powers and bridge their sloppy relations.

3.(very pessimistic case) If every thing get out of hand and pakistan becomes the life line of china & russia. we will be ideal target for any agressor. and yes i dont think we have enough fire power to handle such an event, and we must not , we can not allow chinese armed forces on our soil in any case. (thats how the british came, just trade). So, I think with our bugdet and resources, It is wise not to become a point of interest.

So, the conclusion would be, that we must be very careful in the negotiation, our limited focus can hurt us in the long run. And the whole thing has the potential to blow up in our face. And due to our incompetency this thing can turn out to be the worst thing thing that ever happened to pak rather than the best thing.

by MECH

(+ve,-ve, neutral) reviews & views are welcomed

Reported to Mods for writing sensibly about the CPEC....
Just kidding!!!

 

[kamrananvaar]

Cpec is just a road . Pakistan needs more infrastructure like super highways. Goods from china already floiding the world including pakistan . Not even the mighty usa is immune.
You want self reliance go ahead nobodys stopping you . Stop blaming others. This is a multi polar world . Usa has done jack sh.. For you . Hes supporting india for crying out load and you do all the heavy lifting like fight against terrorism . Still no mfn status for you . What has america done for you .
On the contrary point three , pakistan should use its unique position and help itself in the long run

 

[Indus Pakistan]

For the past few weeks i have been reading a lot about this economic corridor but only the good thing like how this road is gonna boast our economy and make lives of 20mil people better. So I feel like be the critic here. At the moment I have three Potential risks of this project.

1. Despite the positive outlook of the CPEC, we also need to understand the potentially long run negative impact it shall have on Pakistan’s industrial sector. The goods from China will likely flood Pakistan’s market more rapidly, which will potentially slow down or in worse case cripple the local industry.

2.Excess of every thing is bad, & in this case it is our reliance on china. Pakistan needs to secure its own national interests and keep the balance of its relations with both China and the West for relying on one sphere of influence can damage relations with the other. By becoming a diplomatic balancer, as pointed out previously, Pakistan can get the best from both powers and bridge their sloppy relations.

3.(very pessimistic case) If every thing get out of hand and pakistan becomes the life line of china & russia. we will be ideal target for any agressor. and yes i dont think we have enough fire power to handle such an event, and we must not , we can not allow chinese armed forces on our soil in any case. (thats how the british came, just trade). So, I think with our bugdet and resources, It is wise not to become a point of interest.

So, the conclusion would be, that we must be very careful in the negotiation, our limited focus can hurt us in the long run. And the whole thing has the potential to blow up in our face. And due to our incompetency this thing can turn out to be the worst thing thing that ever happened to pak rather than the best thing.

by MECH

(+ve,-ve, neutral) reviews & views are welcomed

Yes, your right. It's just a road. Just strip of tarmac. Just a ribbon. What will it do? Well it will flood the Pakistani market. It will destroy our industry. So what is good about it?

Everything. The problem with Pakistan is we have stuck our heads up our backsides. This has allowed the world to move on while we are still sat there in our villages swatting flies. Have you ever thought why a country of 200 million people has exports less than 3 million Ireland?

Where is our so called industry? Well we don't have industry like most of the world. We have parasites going as industry. Now this is how "parasite industry" works. The elite make the poor go abroad to slave away in Saudia Arabia or other countries. The billions that comes to Pakistan then is spent on cars, motorbikes, houses, food, fridges, electrical products etc.

Then the elite create a import restriction that either stops anything being imported or attracts high taxes. That means when you want to buy a car, fridge etc you can't buy it from abroad. Then the ruling elite give a licence to one of their favourites to make friidges. The factory that makes fridges can be utterly inefficent and the fridge could be rubbish but it still sells because onsumers have no choice. So these lame duck industries that really are just parasites and survive because of regulated market keep making money for the elite.

Comes alonng CPEC. destroys these industries. Consumer get choice. If our fridge is better why would we buy Chinese? If our shoes are better why would we buy Chinese? If our industry shuts it is because it was incompetant parasite. As industry shuts down that effects the market. The Chinese companies will soon start moving their prodiction units along the CPEC to supply local market as well as abroad. This then over time introduces nerw ideas, new ways of running things and introdices competion. Over time some of our people start comepting and the best go on to then compete with the world. This is why CPEC is good for us in the long run.

 

[marbella]

chinese railway engines didn't work.
chinese powerplant dongfeng is the latest example

 

[Indus Pakistan]

And the biggest thing CPEC will do in the long run is intangible. It will bring in ideas of modernity into our country. It will introduce fresh ways of thinking. Ways of thinking and doing things that have catapulted China from poverty to near superpower.

From this:-

This remarkable change has come about because of certain way of thinking, certain way of doing things. We need to learn some of this. Over two thousand years ago a profound idea - Buddhism moved from Taxila near what is now Islamabad, Pakistan along the the very route of the CPEC north into China. It had profound effect on China.

I might be hoping for too much but today even if small amount of Chinese thinking move south along the very same route rubs off on us we will make giant progress.

 

[Tiger Genie]

@Al-Tair - well written; it is indeed a much needed but dual edged thing. It is certainly nowhere near the nirvana that many Pakistanis make it out to be even if you discount all the cautions and risks your are pointing to.

From my read, the biggest risk that CPEC poses to Pakistan is actually if it succeeds too well !! in that scenario if it manages to divert other egresses to/from China, it ends up becoming way to vital for the Chinese. When something becomes THAT vital to China, Chinese being long yard players, I cannot envisage any scenario (of agreements and amity with Pakistan) that will make them (China) sleep with ease if such a vital interest remains an external dependency.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@Al-Tair - well written; it is indeed a much needed but dual edged thing. It is certainly nowhere near the nirvana that many Pakistanis make it out to be even if you discount all the cautions and risks your are pointing to.

From my read, the biggest risk that CPEC poses to Pakistan is actually if it succeeds too well !! in that scenario if it manages to divert other egresses to/from China, it ends up becoming way to vital for the Chinese. When something becomes THAT vital to China, Chinese being long yard players, I cannot envisage any scenario (of agreements and amity with Pakistan) that will make them (China) sleep with ease if such a vital interest remains an external dependency.

Debateable but it sure ain't nirvana for you Indian's. More like CPEC equates to purgatory.

 

[Metanoia]

I consider CPEC to be a catalyst...a window of opportunity.

 

[Whazzup]

Debateable but it sure ain't nirvana for you Indian's. More like CPEC equates to purgatory.

Well but the OP is right about capturing the market nonetheless. I understand it will raise the bar for industry in Pakistan but still will Pakistan's industry will grow?....No

One of the mainstays of the Chinese strategy of following a mass-production and mass-consumption formula is to keep the profit margins low and cover the gap by the subsequent boost in sales. As its motto, the huge scale of operations of the Chinese industry is geared towards supplying not only the large domestic market, but also exporting extensively to global market at cheap rates.

The cheap labour in China leads to cheaper availability of goods. However, that is only partially true; labour is only one part of the total cost of a product, and in many cases it is as low as 20 percent of the total cost. There are about 1000 protest demonstrations occurring every week in China at the risk of beatings, demotions, dismissal and even torture. As a result, wages have finally been rising by about 15 percent every year over the past four years. It took suicides by workers in the summer of 2010 to achieve additional improvement in wages and working conditions at plants which were more like prison camps with dormitories for workers to live in. Fences were constructed around the buildings so workers couldn’t leave the premises.

China has a national strategy of what is called “dumping.” Dumping is defined as the act of a manufacturer in one country exporting a product to another country at a price that is either below the price it charges in its home market or is below its cost of production. The goal of dumping is to capture the market or destroy the competition for a particular product or commodity so that the price to the end user or consumer is lowered way below the competition, sometimes even below the cost of production.

Cheap Chinese Products: Destroying Indian Producers

How will Pakistan's industry gonna progress when they will gonna loose the demand for their products?

P.S Sir plz reply to me and not my flag

 

[touela]

Yes, your right. It's just a road. Just strip of tarmac. Just a ribbon. What will it do? Well it will flood the Pakistani market. It will destroy our industry. So what is good about it?

Everything. The problem with Pakistan is we have stuck our heads up our backsides. This has allowed the world to move on while we are still sat there in our villages swatting flies. Have you ever thought why a country of 200 million people has exports less than 3 million Ireland?

Where is our so called industry? Well we don't have industry like most of the world. We have parasites going as industry. Now this is how "parasite industry" works. The elite make the poor go abroad to slave away in Saudia Arabia or other countries. The billions that comes to Pakistan then is spent on cars, motorbikes, houses, food, fridges, electrical products etc.

Then the elite create a import restriction that either stops anything being imported or attracts high taxes. That means when you want to buy a car, fridge etc you can't buy it from abroad. Then the ruling elite give a licence to one of their favourites to make friidges. The factory that makes fridges can be utterly inefficent and the fridge could be rubbish but it still sells because onsumers have no choice. So these lame duck industries that really are just parasites and survive because of regulated market keep making money for the elite.

Comes alonng CPEC. destroys these industries. Consumer get choice. If our fridge is better why would we buy Chinese? If our shoes are better why would we buy Chinese? If our industry shuts it is because it was incompetant parasite. As industry shuts down that effects the market. The Chinese companies will soon start moving their prodiction units along the CPEC to supply local market as well as abroad. This then over time introduces nerw ideas, new ways of running things and introdices competion. Over time some of our people start comepting and the best go on to then compete with the world. This is why CPEC is good for us in the long run.

Very very well replied

 

[dadeechi]

For the past few weeks i have been reading a lot about this economic corridor but only the good thing like how this road is gonna boast our economy and make lives of 20mil people better. So I feel like be the critic here. At the moment I have three Potential risks of this project.

1. Despite the positive outlook of the CPEC, we also need to understand the potentially long run negative impact it shall have on Pakistan’s industrial sector. The goods from China will likely flood Pakistan’s market more rapidly, which will potentially slow down or in worse case cripple the local industry.

2.Excess of every thing is bad, & in this case it is our reliance on china. Pakistan needs to secure its own national interests and keep the balance of its relations with both China and the West for relying on one sphere of influence can damage relations with the other. By becoming a diplomatic balancer, as pointed out previously, Pakistan can get the best from both powers and bridge their sloppy relations.

3.(very pessimistic case) If every thing get out of hand and pakistan becomes the life line of china & russia. we will be ideal target for any agressor. and yes i dont think we have enough fire power to handle such an event, and we must not , we can not allow chinese armed forces on our soil in any case. (thats how the british came, just trade). So, I think with our bugdet and resources, It is wise not to become a point of interest.

So, the conclusion would be, that we must be very careful in the negotiation, our limited focus can hurt us in the long run. And the whole thing has the potential to blow up in our face. And due to our incompetency this thing can turn out to be the worst thing thing that ever happened to pak rather than the best thing.

by MECH

(+ve,-ve, neutral) reviews & views are welcomed

Good thoughtful critique.

On the 3rd point, if CPEC is deemed potentially successful then there is potential risk that Pakistan could become a play ground between West on one side and Russia/China on the other side.

Pakistan could become another Ukraine or Syria.

 

[Maravan]

Yes sometimes it happens and the local industries got crushed, once a small town in tamil nadu contributed to 90% of fireworks production of entire India. After chinese fireworks entered, now even well renowned local industries informed their workers they are going to shut the factory for 3months. Our local manufacturers made fireworks from aluminium powder which is less inflammable and costly, chinese fireworks are made of potassium powder which is highly inflammable and cheap.

The same town was flourishing in printing as well due to the fireworks production and contributed more than 60% of India's entire printing works, now everything got a big hit.

Ensure that you don't allow products which are well available in the local market to save your local industrial base.

 

[Donatello]

In 1971, America made sure that India didn't cause the disintegration of Western Pakistan. The only thing that stood between Pakistan and becoming history was the US.

How many stray dogs bit you?

 

[Lurch Adams]

How many stray dogs bit you?

Yes, I know. The surrender was just a ruse. Afterwards the defeated (not) Punjabi army was going to rip us to shreds. America saved us, not you (yawn).