Countdown to 2014: The Modi factor

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How will Narendra Modi’s appointment as chairman of the BJP’s national election campaign committee impact the 2014 Lok Sabha poll? As the general election draws nearer, what role will BJP patriarch L.K. Advani play? And will the impending break in ties between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP significantly alter the poll mathematics?

The following state-wise chart projects the number of seats the two principal national parties, the Congress and the BJP, are likely to win in the next Lok Sabha election. As before, these projections are based on data from recently published opinion polls as well as analysis by my research team. The projections are subjective.

The BJP’s calibrated ambiguity over Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate – till at least the key state assembly elections are completed at the end of the year – will prevent a full-scale Modi wave. The rising numbers for that wave will have to be computed after clarity is achieved on his PM candidature and internal opposition to him within the NDA wanes. In other words, a full-scale Modi-as-PM wave is not factored into these projections.

2014 Lok Sabha: Projections

The figures in the four columns should be read as follows:

State: Total seats: Projected Cong seats: Projected BJP seats:

Andhra Pradesh: 42 4 1

Arunachal Pradesh: 2 2 0

Assam: 14 4 5

Bihar: 40 2 16

Chhattisgarh: 11 1 10

Delhi: 7 1 5

Goa: 2 0 2

Gujarat: 26 4 22

Haryana: 10 5 3

Himachal Pradesh: 4 2 2

Jammu & Kashmir: 6 2 2

Jharkhand: 14 4 8

Karnataka: 28 15 11

Kerala: 20 10 0

Madhya Pradesh: 29 4 25

Maharashtra: 48 11 18

Manipur: 2 1 0

Meghalaya: 2 1 0

Mizoram: 1 1 0

Nagaland: 1 1 0

Odisha: 21 3 0

Punjab: 13 2 5

Rajasthan: 25 6 19

Sikkim: 1 0 0

Tamil Nadu: 39 0 0

Tripura: 2 0 0

Uttarakhand: 5 2 3

Uttar Pradesh: 80 6 35

West Bengal: 42 5 0

Andaman & Nicobar: 1 0 1

Chandigarh: 1 1 0

Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 1 0 1

Daman & Diu: 1 0 1

Lakshadweep: 1 1 0

Puducherry: 1 0 0

Nominated members: 2 0 0

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Total: 545 101 195

Note: In states where Congress+BJP projected seats don’t add up to total seats above, UPA/NDA allies, “leaners” and unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:

NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 6, AGP 3, Others 5. Total 30.

UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 3, NC 2, Others 7, Total 12.

Leaning BJP: AIADMK 28, TRS 13, Others 8. Total 49.

Leaning Congress: YSR 19, DMK 8, RJD 5, Others 4. Total 36.

Unattached Regional: JD(U) 15, BJD 18, TMC 25, TDP 5, BSP 18, SP 21,

Left Front 20. Total 122.

Summary:

NDA: BJP (195) + allies (30)= 225 + Leaning BJP (49) = 274.

UPA: Congress (101) + allies (12) = 113 + Leaning Congress (36) =149.

TF: Unattached Regional = 122.

Assumptions:

1.Narendra Modi, as chairman of the national election and management committee, will lead the BJP campaign and be its likely Prime Ministerial candidate but this will not be stated explicitly till later this year.

2.Rahul Gandhi will not be declared the UPA’s Prime Ministerial candidate though he will be the face of the campaign.

The BJP (195) + allies (30) + leaning BJP (49) are projected to win 274 seats. That’s a slim majority – but remember it’s without the JD(U), the BJD and other fence-sitters.

The Congress (101) + allies (12) + leaning Congress (36) are projected to win 149 seats.

The regional Third Front, despite the hype, is projected to muster only 122 seats with huge inbuilt ideological divisions: TMC (25) and the Left Front (20) in West Bengal (and Kerala); and BSP (18) and SP(21) in Uttar Pradesh.

THIRD FRONT MIRAGE

Can the Third Front (TF) form a government supported from outside by – as in 1996-98 – the Congress? Again, look at the numbers. Add the Congress seat tally + allies + leaners (149) and the unattached regionals (124) minus TMC/Left and SP/BSP and the total is less than 235 seats. To have any chance of forming a TF-Congress government, the TF (Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee, et al) must get at least 110 seats (after deducting the TMC/Left and SP/BSP overlaps) and the Congress at least 140 on its own. Both seem unlikely.

Some important observations:

1.Modi’s campaign will have a major impact in the Hindi heartland – UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Himachal. In Uttar Pradesh, the combined effect of Rajnath Singh and Modi could take the BJP from 10 seats to around two-thirds (35 seats) of its 1998 tally of 52 seats.

2.In Bihar, despite the likely triangular contest between the BJP, JD(U) and the Congress-RJD, the BJP could increase its tally from 12 seats (2009) to 16. Modi’s EBC (Extremely Backward Caste) status will result in a powerful coalition with the BJP’s traditional upper caste votes.

3.In Maharashtra, Gujarat and the Telengana region of Andhra, Modi’s impact could be decisive. The TRS is a likely NDA ally if a separate Telengana state is incorporated in the BJP’s election manifesto.

4.In Karnataka, Yeddyurappa’s return, or in a pre-poll alliance with the BJP – based on Modi’s equation with him – could turn the tide in the southern state.

5.The average voteshare of the BJP in the last four general elections (1998-2009) was 22.58%. In 1998, it won 182 seats with 25.59% voteshare. In 1999, it again won 182 seats with 23.75% voteshare. Allies make a difference so the 195 seats projected in this analysis could be possible in 2014 with a voteshare of around 26%. That’s a swing of 3.5% over the BJP’s average voteshare of 22.58% in 1998-2009 – or a swing of 7% over its voteshare of 18.80% in 2009. This is where the Modi and anti-incumbency factors intersect.

Polarisation? Of course it will occur. But polarisation is hardly new in Indian electoral politics. The Congress and the Samajwadi Party have polarised minorities for decades. The BSP has polarised Dalits for nearly as long. Regional parties have polarised votes on parochial grounds since the 1960s.

Will polarising the majority community amount to communalising the election? Not if it’s based strictly on issues: governance, corruption, inflation, economic policy, security. Communalism and secularism in India anyway need to be redefined as I have argued in The ayatollahs of secularism.

As the 2014 Lok Sabha poll campaign gathers pace alongside the state assembly campaigns, be prepared for a gamechanging election – certainly one that is likely to be the most historical since 1977.

Source: blogs(.)economictimes(.)indiatimes(.)com/headon/entry/countdown-to-2014-the-modi-factor1