Containment of China - Indian Ocean theatre

[dadeechi]

I am opening this thread to discuss the containment of China in Indian Ocean theatre

Background:

China has been growing at a rapid pace economically and lately militarily.

Having power is not end in itself. The country needs to be able to project power to be a reckoned as a super power

Towards this end China has started the building roads and sea lanes as part it's strategy to project power

The objective is to have unhindered access to Africa, Middle east and Europe through Central Asia and India Ocean

Key Countries which can make or break China's entry into Indian ocean:

Iran
Pakistan
India
Myanmar
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia

Potential Routes:

1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean

2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean

3) China=>India=> Indian Ocean

4) China=>Myanmar=> Indian Ocean

5) China=>SCS=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

6) China=>Laos=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

7) China=>SCS=> Strait of Malacca=> Indian Ocean

 

[dadeechi]

1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean

US still controls Afghanistan and with the US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran would move towards US. Hence this option would be dead.

2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean

US has comprehensive package to move away from China's CPEC which included Nuclear deal, Military aid and building up of conventional military capability.

So far Pakistan has been shunning US' offer and proceeding with China's offer on CPEC.

This is very alive and kicking.

3) China=>India=> Indian Ocean

China's aggressive foray into South Asia has made India doubt China's intentions and India for now has decided to stay away from the Chinese proposal

4) China=>Myanmar=> Indian Ocean

US-Myanmar (military leadership) détente, Improving India-Myanmar relations and the subsequent election of US leaning Aung San Suu Kyi to power has for now dampened Chinese interest but this is still a very viable option.

5) China=>SCS=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean
and
6) China=>Laos=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

Kra Canal is still on the table and China has good relationship with Laos. It needs to be seen how much US & India could influence Thailand.

This very much on the table.

7) China=>SCS=> Strait of Malacca=> Indian Ocean

This has been traditional controlled by US and hence China is looking at alternative routes.

 

[Djinn]

Unless the "Indian" Ocean belongs to India( Which the whole world knows that it doesn't), there is absolutely NO way India can exercise restraints on Chinese plans for the region. The best option for India is to accept Chinese rise and not try to be a competitor in a race which it cannot win.

 

[dadeechi]

Unless the "Indian" Ocean belongs to India( Which the whole world knows that it doesn't), there is absolutely NO way India can exercise restraints on Chinese plans for the region. The best option for India is to accept Chinese rise and not try to be a competitor in a race which it cannot win.

India is just a small pawn in this game.

US & China are the main players.

 

[oprih]

Lmao, as expected, another indian paranoid of China's impressive growth. As for that containment, it will never happen, quit wasting your time dreaming about it.

 

[dadeechi]

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[Indika]

US still controls Afghanistan and with the US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran would move towards US. Hence this option would be dead.

Removing of sanctions on Iran is a game changer. Iran will counterbalance pakistan and strive for greater impact on Islamic world. US will not care what happens in ME if Israel is not touched. The theatre is now china and surrounding areas.

One of the reasons why US is a major power is bcos of stability @home with no threat and lot of allies. Chinese are hell bent on making enemies near home. Other than Russia who provide passive support China is all alone.

The current situation resembles the one before WW1 when germany raced to build berlin-baghdad railway line. CPEC resembles the same.

 

[dadeechi]

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[Blue Marlin]

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for china its about securing sea lanes in the event of a confrontation and other countries see this as an agressive manevour. the scs is somthing china will control. they have built islands there which is in essance an unsunkable aircaft carrier. in indian ocean is a bit more difficult to justify. but any country can talk there way on to it. protect oil supplies and anti piracy. also come say hi to friendly neighbouring countries that are perfectly located in the arabian sea and just next to the indian ocean. india will see china's move there as coming into there back yard but china's influence is huge and very hard to ignore.
china has already begun building ports in countries scatterd in the indian ocean. also the countries where the port are being built are getting huge amounts of investments from china. so it no suprise that chinese naval vessels can go there. also its building its first foreign base at the horn of africa in djibouti coupled with hundreds of millions of dollars of investment too.
the rate of growth is too fast fo india to consider compeating with them. and as for china it will only get stronger and the countries it will arouse will get stronger too.

 

[dadeechi]

for china its about securing sea lanes in the event of a confrontation and other countries see this as an agressive manevour. the scs is somthing china will control. they have built islands there which is in essance an unsunkable aircaft carrier. in indian ocean is a bit more difficult to justify. but any country can talk there way on to it. protect oil supplies and anti piracy. also come say hi to friendly neighbouring countries that are perfectly located in the arabian sea and just next to the indian ocean. india will see china's move there as coming into there back yard but china's influence is huge and very hard to ignore.
china has already begun building ports in countries scatterd in the indian ocean. also the countries where the port are being built are getting huge amounts of investments from china. so it no suprise that chinese naval vessels can go there. also its building its first foreign base at the horn of africa in djibouti coupled with hundreds of millions of dollars of investment too.
the rate of growth is too fast fo india to consider compeating with them. and as for china it will only get stronger and the countries it will arouse will get stronger too.

View attachment 287894

As I said earlier, the game is between US & China. India is just a pawn like many other countries in the region.

Removing of sanctions on Iran is a game changer. Iran will counterbalance pakistan and strive for greater impact on Islamic world. US will not care what happens in ME if Israel is not touched. The theatre is now china and surrounding areas.

One of the reasons why US is a major power is bcos of stability @home with no threat and lot of allies. Chinese are hell bent on making enemies near home. Other than Russia who provide passive support China is all alone.

The current situation resembles the one before WW1 when germany raced to build berlin-baghdad railway line. CPEC resembles the same.

Yes. I think US-Iran relations are going to transform. The key country here is Pakistan. That is one of the reasons why China says that Pakistan is China's Israel meaning it would go to any lengths to protect the CPEC route through Pakistan as that is the most viable one.

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[Götterdämmerung]

The US has just put new sanctions on Iran hours after the old one was lifted. So much for a new US-Iran rapprochement.

 

[dadeechi]

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The US has just put new sanctions on Iran hours after the old one was lifted. So much for a new US-Iran rapprochement.

US-Iran relationship would be covert as officially Iran would still have to oppose Israel to enhance it's influence in gulf.

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[911]

Granting access to Indian ocean for trade only can't be considered bad. But in war situation only two countries might provide China route to Indian ocean, i.e Pakistan or Mayanmar.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

US-Iran relationship would be covert as officially Iran would still have to oppose Israel to enhance it's influence in gulf.

The covert relationship must be highly classified that even you know about it.

 

[dadeechi]

The covert relationship must be highly classified that even you know about it.

So do you think China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean route is possible?

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