Silverblaze
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(Mods, can you move it to the magazine section?)
Conflict is inevitable
This article will venture to explain as to why and how Pakistan might find itself in a limited military engagement with India if not all out war soon. It is an absolute fallacy on the part of the group of people who believe that India is too ‘mature’ to mount an offensive against Pakistan, especially, after a series of successful tactical strikes by Pakistan on Feb, 27, 2019. Nevertheless, India will continue its aggressive designs due to a superpower syndrome, overt fascism, and tacit western approval.
Why?
India maintains a superpower syndrome ever since it became independent. The profound desire to have a Hindu empire -a despotically centralized, ruthlessly fascist entity espousing incredibly righteous principles of democratic pluralism shinning as a paragon of tolerance -sharing the colonial grand chess board with other power players while pretending to be the voice of the oppressed, has essentially regulated this Republic’s foreign and defense policy. This plan could not achieve fruition due to an aberration called Pakistan. A Muslim Pakistan’s emergence horrendously disrupted the natural order as viewed by the India’s essentially Hindu establishment as Nehru once referred to Pakistan as a “Carbuncle on my back”. Just as ‘an autonomous’ Cuba was unacceptable to the US establishments’ domination in North America, similarly, a much larger ‘independent’ Pakistan was not welcome in South Asia. Anyways, a working relationship with Pakistan’s regime was reluctantly accepted thanks to Pakistan’s skillful diplomacy leading to an alliance with US. After 9/11, with the rise of anti-Muslim sentiments and alignment of anti-Muslim forces, India’s establishment has portrayed itself as a bastion against Islamic fundamentalism. With the arrival of Hindu right wing taking direct control of India’s polity, the old superpower syndrome and explicit western endorsement has amalgamated into overt fascism. Hence, in the Indian calculus, owing to the anti-Muslim environment, internal strife and indifference within the Muslim world even towards a once politically volcanic dispute of Palestine, time has come to amputate or debilitate an Islamic aberration called Pakistan. Therefore, it is ridiculously easy to infer that a conflict is inevitable.
How?
Indian establishment has striven to dismantle or as they call it ‘defang’ Pakistan at every opportunity deemed felicitous by it. After failing to arrest Pakistan’s creation, its military, water, and monetary share was viciously denied coupled with the officially enforced policy of massacre of Muslim refugees that even led the Supreme Commander of British Forces in India, Claude Auchinleck, to report on 28 September 1947, "I have no hesitation, whatever, in affirming that the present Indian Cabinet are implacably determined to do all in their power to prevent the establishment of the Dominion of Pakistan on firm basis. Since 15th August, the situation has steadily deteriorated and the Indian leaders, cabinet ministers, civil officials and others have persistently tried to obstruct the work of partition of the armed forces.”
Again in 1950, an internal crisis in East Pakistan led India to mobilize forces on both fronts to take away Pakistan’s territory. Again in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s till present, from supporting covert operations of nationalist terrorists to, Islamic extremists, from its own astrologers to its actors – Indian officials being fervent followers of Arthashastra by Chanakya - use every instrument of power available to them. Going by Arthashastra, Indian establishment of today seems to be following it to the letter. They have been striving to use both schools of thoughts - Arthasastrins and the Dharmasastrins with the former advocating chicanery and the latter military engagements. Hence, strategic military and secret subversive means are both heavily in use which is also referred to as hybrid or nonlinear warfare. For instance, especially after the Ladakh disaster, the present Indian dispensation has increased self-glorification by all means. From the news channel to entertainment shows to astrologers a sense of enthusiasm is being inculcated by giving publicity to the sheer invincibility and omniscience of this regime. At the same time, Pakistan and its state power is being and will be portrayed as meek and dysfunctional to everyone. An extreme Indian focus on Pakistan will continue to increase and calls for military engagement in Baltistan and Azad Kashmir will become more pronounced. As Chanakya’s secret means would have it, a false flag project might be conducted. Those who dismiss a false flag project as a conspiracy theory seriously undermine history and its grave consequences. In modern times, Nazi Germany’s Operation Himmler which comprised of a series of staged attacks with the most famous being the Gleiwitz incident, practically started WW2. Similar incidents were undertaken by the Imperial Japanese Empire with the most famous being the Manchurian incident which preceded the invasion of Manchuria.
As Chanakya would have it, the Indian establishments’ assessment of power, place, time, and strength of both Pakistan and itself seems underway, with power, place and time being vital. With power being preferred by Chanakya over an enthusiastic enemy, Indian establishment led by Doval seeks to exercise overwhelming power over Pakistan like it did to subjugate Indian occupied Kashmir. A limited operation in a particular sector with numerical superiority of a combined arms offensive is a real possibility. All summer could be a particularly dangerous time for a limited operation at least, even though marching against a chronically unstable enemy is open for all seasons, 2020s will be an interesting time.
Pakistan’s Reposite
Pakistan has been incredibly resilient. The fragile balance of power in South Asia is a testament to Pakistan’s valor. However, circumstances and abject bureaucratic/political incompetence have militated against it. The country must now exercise a combination of smart, hard and soft power and guarantee its internal and economic stability as it guarantees the protection of its nuclear assets. From business communities, to student organizations everything should be regulated and monitored under a comprehensive system secured by a disciplined force. Concept of internal troops could be explored as it was previously done as a Federal Security Force to deny battlespace to the enemy within the national polity. From combating cyber propaganda, subterfuge, sabotage and collection of intelligence to a holistic assessment of the country’s internal status, this apparatus can be a natural stabilizer to be used to minimize the exploitation of national vulnerabilities without the need of an already stretched army.
Relying solely on international community and its co-coreligionists should no longer be an option. Pakistan must project power both militarily and diplomatically. Every opportunity given should be massively exploited. The goal is to infuse a sense of insecurity in South Asia about India’s ambitions and to expose India’s Hindutva inspired authoritarian intentions. Even a map of Akhand Bharat must ignite massive responses. Pakistan must express concerns with countries depicted as part of Akhand Bharat. Exposition of Anti-Islamic activities of India’s Hindu diaspora to the natives is also needed. India’s instruments of propaganda such as its movie industry must be viewed as an anti-Islamic mouthpiece in Muslim countries.
India’s internal vulnerabilities which are as many as hair on a horse, must be studied in detail. Ethnic, religious, linguistic and ideological frictions provide a target rich environment. The dilution of India’s central authority should be the goal. This has been Hindu India’s greatest fears as it essentially sees itself as a centralized Hindu authority. It is not far fetched to suggest an idea of an independent Bengal, a separate Union of Dravidian States, another Union of Northeastern States, a Naxalite controlled Odisha/Chhattisgarh union or even a Khalistan. Everything that is believable is possible. Pakistan could open diplomatic offices of all dissident members from the aforementioned states and seriously project their democratic aspirations. As to why the recent declaration of independence by Manipur was not welcomed by Pakistani authorities is anybody’s guess. This was a case of inexcusable incompetence.
Furthermore, arming the ‘middle kingdoms’ (as Chanakya would put it) is another option which means to develop in Nepal and Sri Lanka, reasonable defense forces under magnanimous security assistance programs like US and Soviet programs. Why wouldn’t Sri Lanka or Nepal want a missile program in line with the MTCR regime? Myanmar could be developed to counter India’s ally Bangladesh. Similar policies have been followed in Afghanistan by extending support to Anti government Afghan groups. Lastly, Pakistan must have an even more formidable armed forces structure. Pakistan needs enormous investments particularly in its Air and Naval forces. Defence by Denial strategy should now become a more of a Punishment Strategy. Pakistan Defence Forum contributors have made splendid suggestions to incorporate, Cyber, UAVs, EMP and other platforms. This is need of the hour.
Conclusion
India has never viewed peace as an end game in South Asia. This flawed assessment is propagated by individuals who are heavily influenced by India. It was the Indian leadership that demanded partition of Punjab and Bengal; their view being Hindus and Sikhs cannot live with the Muslim majority, so why do they claim a Muslim majority Kashmir? The reason, as discussed before, is establishing complete Hindu domination over South Asia with the minorities particularly, Muslims, at their mercy. Even if there was no Kashmir, conflict would still continue. Pakistan is a detested entity by the Hindu elite as its very nature is viewed as antithetical to the concept of Bharat Mata. Pakistan should not accept the new normal and embrace the age of anarchy. India’s internal clamor will only get louder, its destabilization is guaranteed in the coming years and so is a conflict with Pakistan. All Pakistan needs is a focused resolve.
Conflict is inevitable
This article will venture to explain as to why and how Pakistan might find itself in a limited military engagement with India if not all out war soon. It is an absolute fallacy on the part of the group of people who believe that India is too ‘mature’ to mount an offensive against Pakistan, especially, after a series of successful tactical strikes by Pakistan on Feb, 27, 2019. Nevertheless, India will continue its aggressive designs due to a superpower syndrome, overt fascism, and tacit western approval.
Why?
India maintains a superpower syndrome ever since it became independent. The profound desire to have a Hindu empire -a despotically centralized, ruthlessly fascist entity espousing incredibly righteous principles of democratic pluralism shinning as a paragon of tolerance -sharing the colonial grand chess board with other power players while pretending to be the voice of the oppressed, has essentially regulated this Republic’s foreign and defense policy. This plan could not achieve fruition due to an aberration called Pakistan. A Muslim Pakistan’s emergence horrendously disrupted the natural order as viewed by the India’s essentially Hindu establishment as Nehru once referred to Pakistan as a “Carbuncle on my back”. Just as ‘an autonomous’ Cuba was unacceptable to the US establishments’ domination in North America, similarly, a much larger ‘independent’ Pakistan was not welcome in South Asia. Anyways, a working relationship with Pakistan’s regime was reluctantly accepted thanks to Pakistan’s skillful diplomacy leading to an alliance with US. After 9/11, with the rise of anti-Muslim sentiments and alignment of anti-Muslim forces, India’s establishment has portrayed itself as a bastion against Islamic fundamentalism. With the arrival of Hindu right wing taking direct control of India’s polity, the old superpower syndrome and explicit western endorsement has amalgamated into overt fascism. Hence, in the Indian calculus, owing to the anti-Muslim environment, internal strife and indifference within the Muslim world even towards a once politically volcanic dispute of Palestine, time has come to amputate or debilitate an Islamic aberration called Pakistan. Therefore, it is ridiculously easy to infer that a conflict is inevitable.
How?
Indian establishment has striven to dismantle or as they call it ‘defang’ Pakistan at every opportunity deemed felicitous by it. After failing to arrest Pakistan’s creation, its military, water, and monetary share was viciously denied coupled with the officially enforced policy of massacre of Muslim refugees that even led the Supreme Commander of British Forces in India, Claude Auchinleck, to report on 28 September 1947, "I have no hesitation, whatever, in affirming that the present Indian Cabinet are implacably determined to do all in their power to prevent the establishment of the Dominion of Pakistan on firm basis. Since 15th August, the situation has steadily deteriorated and the Indian leaders, cabinet ministers, civil officials and others have persistently tried to obstruct the work of partition of the armed forces.”
Again in 1950, an internal crisis in East Pakistan led India to mobilize forces on both fronts to take away Pakistan’s territory. Again in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s till present, from supporting covert operations of nationalist terrorists to, Islamic extremists, from its own astrologers to its actors – Indian officials being fervent followers of Arthashastra by Chanakya - use every instrument of power available to them. Going by Arthashastra, Indian establishment of today seems to be following it to the letter. They have been striving to use both schools of thoughts - Arthasastrins and the Dharmasastrins with the former advocating chicanery and the latter military engagements. Hence, strategic military and secret subversive means are both heavily in use which is also referred to as hybrid or nonlinear warfare. For instance, especially after the Ladakh disaster, the present Indian dispensation has increased self-glorification by all means. From the news channel to entertainment shows to astrologers a sense of enthusiasm is being inculcated by giving publicity to the sheer invincibility and omniscience of this regime. At the same time, Pakistan and its state power is being and will be portrayed as meek and dysfunctional to everyone. An extreme Indian focus on Pakistan will continue to increase and calls for military engagement in Baltistan and Azad Kashmir will become more pronounced. As Chanakya’s secret means would have it, a false flag project might be conducted. Those who dismiss a false flag project as a conspiracy theory seriously undermine history and its grave consequences. In modern times, Nazi Germany’s Operation Himmler which comprised of a series of staged attacks with the most famous being the Gleiwitz incident, practically started WW2. Similar incidents were undertaken by the Imperial Japanese Empire with the most famous being the Manchurian incident which preceded the invasion of Manchuria.
As Chanakya would have it, the Indian establishments’ assessment of power, place, time, and strength of both Pakistan and itself seems underway, with power, place and time being vital. With power being preferred by Chanakya over an enthusiastic enemy, Indian establishment led by Doval seeks to exercise overwhelming power over Pakistan like it did to subjugate Indian occupied Kashmir. A limited operation in a particular sector with numerical superiority of a combined arms offensive is a real possibility. All summer could be a particularly dangerous time for a limited operation at least, even though marching against a chronically unstable enemy is open for all seasons, 2020s will be an interesting time.
Pakistan’s Reposite
Pakistan has been incredibly resilient. The fragile balance of power in South Asia is a testament to Pakistan’s valor. However, circumstances and abject bureaucratic/political incompetence have militated against it. The country must now exercise a combination of smart, hard and soft power and guarantee its internal and economic stability as it guarantees the protection of its nuclear assets. From business communities, to student organizations everything should be regulated and monitored under a comprehensive system secured by a disciplined force. Concept of internal troops could be explored as it was previously done as a Federal Security Force to deny battlespace to the enemy within the national polity. From combating cyber propaganda, subterfuge, sabotage and collection of intelligence to a holistic assessment of the country’s internal status, this apparatus can be a natural stabilizer to be used to minimize the exploitation of national vulnerabilities without the need of an already stretched army.
Relying solely on international community and its co-coreligionists should no longer be an option. Pakistan must project power both militarily and diplomatically. Every opportunity given should be massively exploited. The goal is to infuse a sense of insecurity in South Asia about India’s ambitions and to expose India’s Hindutva inspired authoritarian intentions. Even a map of Akhand Bharat must ignite massive responses. Pakistan must express concerns with countries depicted as part of Akhand Bharat. Exposition of Anti-Islamic activities of India’s Hindu diaspora to the natives is also needed. India’s instruments of propaganda such as its movie industry must be viewed as an anti-Islamic mouthpiece in Muslim countries.
India’s internal vulnerabilities which are as many as hair on a horse, must be studied in detail. Ethnic, religious, linguistic and ideological frictions provide a target rich environment. The dilution of India’s central authority should be the goal. This has been Hindu India’s greatest fears as it essentially sees itself as a centralized Hindu authority. It is not far fetched to suggest an idea of an independent Bengal, a separate Union of Dravidian States, another Union of Northeastern States, a Naxalite controlled Odisha/Chhattisgarh union or even a Khalistan. Everything that is believable is possible. Pakistan could open diplomatic offices of all dissident members from the aforementioned states and seriously project their democratic aspirations. As to why the recent declaration of independence by Manipur was not welcomed by Pakistani authorities is anybody’s guess. This was a case of inexcusable incompetence.
Furthermore, arming the ‘middle kingdoms’ (as Chanakya would put it) is another option which means to develop in Nepal and Sri Lanka, reasonable defense forces under magnanimous security assistance programs like US and Soviet programs. Why wouldn’t Sri Lanka or Nepal want a missile program in line with the MTCR regime? Myanmar could be developed to counter India’s ally Bangladesh. Similar policies have been followed in Afghanistan by extending support to Anti government Afghan groups. Lastly, Pakistan must have an even more formidable armed forces structure. Pakistan needs enormous investments particularly in its Air and Naval forces. Defence by Denial strategy should now become a more of a Punishment Strategy. Pakistan Defence Forum contributors have made splendid suggestions to incorporate, Cyber, UAVs, EMP and other platforms. This is need of the hour.
Conclusion
India has never viewed peace as an end game in South Asia. This flawed assessment is propagated by individuals who are heavily influenced by India. It was the Indian leadership that demanded partition of Punjab and Bengal; their view being Hindus and Sikhs cannot live with the Muslim majority, so why do they claim a Muslim majority Kashmir? The reason, as discussed before, is establishing complete Hindu domination over South Asia with the minorities particularly, Muslims, at their mercy. Even if there was no Kashmir, conflict would still continue. Pakistan is a detested entity by the Hindu elite as its very nature is viewed as antithetical to the concept of Bharat Mata. Pakistan should not accept the new normal and embrace the age of anarchy. India’s internal clamor will only get louder, its destabilization is guaranteed in the coming years and so is a conflict with Pakistan. All Pakistan needs is a focused resolve.
