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Chinese Economy/Development thread (updated regularly)

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Here I will post news on the Chinese economy/development - currently the world's second largest economy. PLEASE DO NOT FLAME. Do not comment if you have nothing substantial to add.

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Following two articles from FT.

Taiwan caters to China’s giant fish appetite
By Robin Kwong in Fangliao
Published: September 17 2010 23:29 | Last updated: September 17 2010 23:29

Choosing your own dinner from a large fish tank is a central attraction of Hong Kong’s famous seafood restaurants.

As the rest of China grows increasingly enamoured with Cantonese cuisine, a Taiwanese company is hoping to cash in, with a boost from a trade deal between Taiwan and China.

The most valuable fish from Long Diann Marine Bio Technology’s aquaculture farms in the Taiwanese seaside town of Fangliao is unlikely to be found in any restaurant tank. The giant grouper, whose steamed flesh is the most prized among Hong Kong gastronomes, can reach 2.5 metres long and weigh 600 kilos.

Tai Kun-tsai, the owner of Long Diann, was the first in the world to reliably breed the huge fish for farming. Mr Tai, who keeps two 150kg pet grouper in a tank in his living room, has since emerged as Taiwan's biggest grouper farmer.

Partly because of Mr Tai’s technology, Taiwan has emerged as the world’s only significant exporter of farmed giant grouper. Other countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand ship wild giant grouper caught from the sea.

Almost all of Mr Tai’s T$200m ($6.3m) sales last year were to Hong Kong, the world’s biggest market for grouper. Over the past year, however, Mr Tai has seen demand surge from mainland Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. Prices for farmed giant grouper have almost doubled from T$280 a kilo a year ago to T$480 ($15).

“The surge in demand and the rise in prices for grouper over the past year was the biggest I have seen since I began this business more than 20 years ago,” Mr Tai says.

China’s growing appetite stands to make Mr Tai and Fangliao’s other grouper farmers significant beneficiaries of the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement, the first formal trade deal between Taiwan and China. China considers Taiwan part of its territory even though the island has been ruled as a de facto independent state since 1949.

Besides eliminating the current 13 per cent Chinese tariff on live fish, the deal, which came into effect this month, will see Beijing remove tariffs on more than 500 products from Taiwan to the benefit of the island’s bicycle, petrochemicals and machinery industries.

Taiwan grouper production has already risen from T$2bn in 2007 to T$3bn last year, according to Mr Tai, and huge capacity expansions are now being planned to tap growing Chinese demand. Over the next three years, Mr Tai plans to invest T$300m to T$500m to triple the size of his fish farm, betting he can quintuple annual revenue to T$1bn.

“The growth of the mainland Chinese market has really just begun,” Mr Tai said. “We expect the greater China market to grow by 20 per cent every year.”

Mr Tai’s efforts are backed by the government, which is promoting grouper as a new national export.

James Sha, director-general of Taiwan’s Fisheries Agency, says grouper avoid direct competition with China, whose coastal areas become too cold for the species during the winter.

“There are very few grouper farmers in China,” he said. “They mostly focus on freshwater fish.”

Mr Sha says the trade deal opens the door for grouper farmers, typically small family businesses, to develop into bigger companies by entering new markets such as supplying frozen fish to inland Chinese provinces.

“We want to help make sure the farmers have alternative markets in case prices crash,” Mr Sha says.
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The fate of the last giant pandas of China
By Henry Nicholls
Published: September 17 2010 22:20 | Last updated: September 17 2010 22:20

68cf3ede-c077-11df-8a81-00144feab49a.jpg

A panda cub in the Wolong Valley, China
In China’s rural west, embedded in the crumpled mountain range that rises up to the Tibetan plateau, is a small town called Baoxing. Here, daily life is dominated by the mining industry. Rusty trucks bring in vast hunks of raw marble, freshly hewn from the surrounding mountains. Factories along the roadside cut them into *perfect worktop slabs destined for distant designer kitchens. A thick film of white dust coats everything, including the huge Baoxing River, which carries the dust off through a seemingly infinite series of hydro- electric dams towards the Yangtze.

This much is typical of the frenetic pace of industry across China, a country whose economy has been growing at a staggering pace for decades. But Baoxing deserves special attention, for the steep, bamboo-clad slopes above the town are part of the best-preserved panda habitat on earth. Roadside artisans reflect this, fashioning miniature pandas from small chunks of marble, stone models of the live animals that dwell in the hills. In Baoxing, two sides of China are on show: one determined to extract prosperity from the natural world and another intent on conservation even at the expense of development.

As an exclusively Chinese animal and one that has, since the 1950s, emerged as the country’s “national treasure”, the giant panda tells us much about the progress of modern China. It was through this valley, in June 1935, that the Communist Party of China’s Red Army passed on its “Long March” to escape the Chinese Nationalist party. One of the few to survive the year-long, 6,000-mile ordeal was Mao Zedong, who carried the CPC to power in 1949. Within a decade, the giant panda was well on its way to becoming a national ambassador. It was perfect for the job: rare, beautiful and, importantly for Mao, it carried no imperial baggage whatsoever.

Painting the panda was not only acceptable during the Cultural Revolution, it was positively encouraged, and by the 1960s its alluring black-and-white form had become synonymous with China. Better still, the west had become increasingly obsessed with the species, thanks largely to animals collected in the vicinity of Baoxing. In 1869, Père Armand David, a French missionary, found specimens there that became the basis for the formal scientific description of this species. In 1936, Ruth Harkness, an American fashion designer, brought the first live panda, Su-Lin, out of China, a 3lb cub who captured western hearts.

6ad310fc-c077-11df-8a81-00144feab49a.jpg

Edwin Heath visits one of the pandas given to the UK by China in 1974

Mao, quite sensibly, exploited this interest with gusto. Between 1957 and 1983, he gave away more than 20 animals – most of them sourced from the mountains around Baoxing – to foster ties with a string of carefully chosen countries. Most famously, he gave a pair to Richard Nixon, Ling-Ling and Hsing-Hsing, after his historic visit to China in 1972. The UK also benefited from panda diplomacy when, following prime minister Edward Heath’s visit to China in 1974, London Zoo received Chia-Chia and Ching-Ching.

Mindful of China’s increasingly open stance towards the west, the World Wildlife Fund requested permission to study the creature which inspired its logo. But during rounds of intense negotiations in late 1979, it transpired that the privilege would cost the charity $1m, money that China put towards the construction of a state-of-the-art breeding facility near the Wolong Nature Reserve, several hours’ drive north of Baoxing. It was a price worth paying, as the research collaboration between China and the WWF, which began the following year, greatly increased our knowledge of the life of the panda in the wild.

At the same time, in keeping with China’s increasingly tough economic stance, the CPC stopped giving away pandas and moved instead to an explicitly commercial model, renting out pandas to foreign zoos on lucrative short-term loans. In 1998 the policy changed and pairs of pandas started to leave China on long-term loans, which improved the chances of reproduction in captivity. Today, China is so self-sufficient that it could happily run the panda show alone, but these loans still make sound financial sense. Most US zoos with pandas, for example, currently pay $500,000 a pair annually to show off these rarities. However confident the Chinese might feel about their own economy, it’s hard to see why they would turn down this revenue.

. . .

As China’s prosperity has grown, so the environment – with the giant panda as its public face – has been moving up the political agenda. There has been a lot of work to do. Between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, vast swathes of Chinese forest were felled, including about half of the giant panda’s natural habitat. This deforestation is thought to have played a big role in the devastating floods that spread across the Yangzte River basin in 1998, killing thousands and costing tens of billions of dollars to repair. Without trees to sponge up rainwater, Sichuan’s bare mountainsides funnelled it directly into the river system.

China responded to this crisis with some of the world’s boldest environmental initiatives. The Natural Forest Protection Programme, a nationwide logging ban launched in 1998, put in place tough new measures for the protection of forests and halted most commercial logging in the upper reaches of the Yangtze, the heart of panda country. In addition, China’s Grain for Green programme has converted crops on steep slopes to grass and forest. Since 1999, when pilot projects began in Sichuan, Gansu and Shaanxi (the three provinces that still have wild pandas), China has spent $40bn on the programme.

6c9c5c72-c077-11df-8a81-00144feab49a.jpg

A marble statue of pandas in the centre of Baoxing addresses the town’s twin concerns of mining and conservation

It’s hard to know how successful these measures will be in preventing more flooding, but they have certainly improved the plight of the panda. Before the nationwide logging ban, loggers were reluctant to acknowledge that the forests they worked in were home to pandas, as to do so would have endangered their livelihoods. With the ban in place, however, pandas *suddenly became an asset, as the same workers looked for other sources of income. This helps to explain why the number of protected areas dedicated to giant pandas leapt from about 20 before the ban to more than 60 today, with several more being added every year. It also made it possible for China to propose the mountains around Baoxing as a Unesco World Heritage Site, one that occupies one million hectares embracing seven nature reserves, nine parks and almost 30 per cent of the world’s wild panda population. With more than 5,000 plant species – about the same number as there are in France – the Sichuan Giant Panda Sanctuaries World Heritage Site has richer botanical treasures than those found anywhere else outside the tropics.

But China’s ambitions for its underdeveloped west do not sit comfortably with these impressive green achievements. In 2000, the Western China Development Plan got under way, a huge initiative to pull the western half of the country up to the standards of the relatively developed east. China makes bold claims for its environmental protection as it goes about this massive project, but there are real tensions at play, and the devastating Sichuan earthquake of 2008, which left some 90,000 people dead and at least five million homeless, has made it all the harder to pursue development and conservation simultaneously. China must now rebuild the infrastructure of this fragile region – ruptured dams, fractured roads, entire towns. What impact will this have on pandas?
China is fortunate in being able to avoid the destruction of flora and fauna that characterised the industrial revolutions in Britain and other western countries. There are signs that it is determined not to make the same mistakes. It is in places such as Baoxing, where China’s raw industrial spirit meets its precious, fragile ecology, that we will find out if they succeed. Pandas have been living here for thousands of years. At the last official census a decade ago, there were just a few hundred left in the region. The chances of seeing one are virtually nil, so why bother to try to save them? The answer, surely, is the powerful symbolism of the giant panda, which rests on its continued survival outside captivity. Lose the panda in the wild and modern China will have lost its own identity.

Henry Nicholls is author of ‘The Way of the Panda: The Curious History of China’s Political Animal’ (Profile).
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From SCMP

Dell set to invest US$100b on mainland
New manufacturing and service complex in Chengdu will eventually employ 3,000
Bien Perez
Sep 18, 2010

Computer maker Dell plans to spend more than US$100 billion on the mainland over the next decade to accelerate expansion in its second-biggest market after the United States.
That commitment includes Dell's total investment in facilities, employment, research and development, and purchases from mainland suppliers.

Dell, the world's second-largest supplier of personal computers, will open its second flagship manufacturing and customer support complex in Chengdu next year. The company also plans to open an additional office at its first computer manufacturing centre in Xiamen and hire up to 500 new staff later this year to support its growth in North Asia.

"These investments are indicative of how Dell sees the importance of China, which will soon become the world's biggest personal computer market," Bryan Ma, associate vice-president of Asia-Pacific devices and peripherals research at International Data Corp (IDC), said yesterday.

IDC forecasts mainland personal computer volumes to surpass those of the United States by 2012, "if not sooner", Ma said.

It has estimated total personal computer shipments on the mainland will reach 97 million units in 2012, up from 81 million units next year and 67 million units this year. Shipments in the US, by comparison, are predicted to hit 93 million units in 2012, from 86 million units next year and 78 million units this year.

Demand for computer systems in western China is expected to grow an average of 21 per cent annually through 2014.

"We're planning for the future, and we're excited about our strategic investments in China that will help us better serve the region's increasing need for technology solutions and services," Dell chairman and chief executive Michael Dell said.

The Texas-based computer maker is developing its new manufacturing and customer support facility inside the West Chengdu High-Tech Park. Its new complex is expected have a staff of up to 3,000 over time after starting operations next year.

Amit Midha, the president of Dell China, said: "The strong Chengdu workforce and our new operations there will better position Dell for additional growth opportunities in western China."

Dell estimated its revenue on the mainland had "increased 11 times" from financial years 2000 to 2010. In the firm's latest financial quarter, it reported mainland sales grew 52 per cent year on year.

According to IDC, Dell has moved ahead of Hewlett-Packard, the world's leading personal computer supplier, to become the mainland's No2 brand. It estimated Dell took a 9 per cent domestic share in the second quarter to edge HP, which had an 8.2 per cent share. Lenovo Group (SEHK: 0992, announcements, news) led the market with a 28.7 per cent share.

Stephen Felice, the president of Dell's global consumer and small and medium business operations, has said the firm's annual mainland sales are approaching US$5 billion.

Dell said the expansion in Chengdu supports the government's western China development strategy, which aims to boost the development of trade and other commercial initiatives in the country's inland western region.
 
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I do have a question or two, is anyone here worried that the Chinese economy might pop like a bubble? Are people in/outside of China even worried about that?
 
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I do have a question or two, is anyone here worried that the Chinese economy might pop like a bubble? Are people in/outside of China even worried about that?

Yes, in fact the Chinese Government specifically tried to "cool down" the economy to prevent any bubbles forming. Which is why the economy grew at 10% rather than at 12%.

It was big news around a month ago.

The Chinese government is still actively trying to "cool down" the economy, mostly by using the Banks to reign in lending.

The difference between China and Japan, is that Japanese GDP per capita is already very high, same as in Hong Kong. Mainland China however still has a LOT of room to grow. Due to the size of Mainland China, the process of becoming a developed country will have the side effect of generating a massive economy. It's just an issue of numbers.
 
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I do have a question or two, is anyone here worried that the Chinese economy might pop like a bubble? Are people in/outside of China even worried about that?

Depends on what you mean by a bubble. The pure definition of a speculative bubble is where a market cycles from irrational exuberance to a panicked pessimism. It is hard to describe an entire economy in those terms especially one that is based on tangible trade and manufacturing like China.

Are some people too much of a bull on China? Possibly... but a flight of capital and a loss of investor confidence is just not in the books right now.
 
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People of course are worried, especially about the property markets. But even if the bubble bursts it probably wont have much impact on the real side of the economy. Property buyers for example need to pay 20-30% of the total price upfront, and almost no one in China use any leverage to play the stock markets.

I think the property price dropped 20%+ percentage in China in 2008, without causing any problem in the economy. Same for stock market. I think the Shanghai index is at about 40% of its heyday before the great China stock bubble burst around 2007. But the burst in stock market didn't carry over to the real economy.
 
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Taiwan caters to China’s giant fish appetite
By Robin Kwong in Fangliao
Published: September 17 2010 23:29 | Last updated: September 17 2010 23:29

Choosing your own dinner from a large fish tank is a central attraction of Hong Kong’s famous seafood restaurants.

As the rest of China grows increasingly enamoured with Cantonese cuisine, a Taiwanese company is hoping to cash in, with a boost from a trade deal between Taiwan and China.

The most valuable fish from Long Diann Marine Bio Technology’s aquaculture farms in the Taiwanese seaside town of Fangliao is unlikely to be found in any restaurant tank. The giant grouper, whose steamed flesh is the most prized among Hong Kong gastronomes, can reach 2.5 metres long and weigh 600 kilos.

Tai Kun-tsai, the owner of Long Diann, was the first in the world to reliably breed the huge fish for farming. Mr Tai, who keeps two 150kg pet grouper in a tank in his living room, has since emerged as Taiwan's biggest grouper farmer.

Partly because of Mr Tai’s technology, Taiwan has emerged as the world’s only significant exporter of farmed giant grouper. Other countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand ship wild giant grouper caught from the sea.

Almost all of Mr Tai’s T$200m ($6.3m) sales last year were to Hong Kong, the world’s biggest market for grouper. Over the past year, however, Mr Tai has seen demand surge from mainland Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. Prices for farmed giant grouper have almost doubled from T$280 a kilo a year ago to T$480 ($15).

“The surge in demand and the rise in prices for grouper over the past year was the biggest I have seen since I began this business more than 20 years ago,” Mr Tai says.

China’s growing appetite stands to make Mr Tai and Fangliao’s other grouper farmers significant beneficiaries of the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement, the first formal trade deal between Taiwan and China. China considers Taiwan part of its territory even though the island has been ruled as a de facto independent state since 1949.

Besides eliminating the current 13 per cent Chinese tariff on live fish, the deal, which came into effect this month, will see Beijing remove tariffs on more than 500 products from Taiwan to the benefit of the island’s bicycle, petrochemicals and machinery industries.

Taiwan grouper production has already risen from T$2bn in 2007 to T$3bn last year, according to Mr Tai, and huge capacity expansions are now being planned to tap growing Chinese demand. Over the next three years, Mr Tai plans to invest T$300m to T$500m to triple the size of his fish farm, betting he can quintuple annual revenue to T$1bn.

“The growth of the mainland Chinese market has really just begun,” Mr Tai said. “We expect the greater China market to grow by 20 per cent every year.”

Mr Tai’s efforts are backed by the government, which is promoting grouper as a new national export.

James Sha, director-general of Taiwan’s Fisheries Agency, says grouper avoid direct competition with China, whose coastal areas become too cold for the species during the winter.

“There are very few grouper farmers in China,” he said. “They mostly focus on freshwater fish.”

Mr Sha says the trade deal opens the door for grouper farmers, typically small family businesses, to develop into bigger companies by entering new markets such as supplying frozen fish to inland Chinese provinces.

“We want to help make sure the farmers have alternative markets in case prices crash,” Mr Sha says.

Giant groupers are endangered and I think that grouper farms like the one described is going to help out by 1) Eliminating the need to fish wild groupers and 2) sustaining a large, breeding population of groupers. This really is a win-win situation for the groupers and the grouper eaters!:partay:
 
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FT
Opposition to forcing China to revalue currency

By Alan Beattie in Washington
Published: September 20 2010 18:47 | Last updated: September 20 2010 18:47

Eight former US trade representatives and commerce secretaries have implored the leadership on Capitol Hill not to use unilateral legislation to force China to revalue its currency.

The letter, which was sent to leaders of the Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives and the Senate, is a last-minute intervention in the congressional debate about how best to deal with Beijing.

The signatories include US trade representatives from both Democratic and Republican administrations, including Mickey Kantor, US trade representative under President Bill Clinton in the mid-1990s, Charlene Barshefsky, his successor who served between 1997-2001, and Susan Schwab, who was trade representative for the last four years of the Bush administration.

“Our experiences in negotiating with China make it clear that passing legislation which will result in punitive duties on Chinese imports will not induce China to move faster on exchange rate reforms,” the former officials say. “We need to find ways to achieve better market access, rather than threatening to destroy it through poorly timed legislation.”

Congressional leaders are debating whether to press ahead with proposed legislation in the House of Representatives that would allow the US to use currency undervaluation to calculate emergency duties against Chinese imports. Sander Levin, chairman of the House of Representatives ways and means committee, said last week he was considering such legislation and that he did not think it would be illegal under the rules of the World Trade Organisation.

But many trade lawyers are doubtful that the legislation could survive a WTO challenge. Mr Levin has also spoken of the US taking its own case against China to the WTO over exchange rates.
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Japan's Yen Move May Undermine Calls for China to Allow Faster Yuan Gains

Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/.../japan-s-yen-move-may-undermine-calls-for-china-to-allow-faster-yuan-gains.html

Japan’s first intervention in the foreign-exchange market in almost six years may undermine calls for China to let its currency appreciate.

Japan’s move to protect exporters by weakening the yen against the dollar was confirmed today by Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda.

China, the world’s largest exporter, is under pressure to let its currency rise more quickly, with U.S. lawmakers today beginning a two-day meeting to address the issue. Japan’s example may give China extra ammunition to resist calls for immediate action at a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers in Washington next month.

It’s “certainly a comforting factor for China, which has been heavily intervening for a long time,” said Tomo Kinoshita, co-head of Asia Economic Research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “China’s trade surplus is still sizeable and it’s going to be under pressure to move its exchange rate more flexibly.”

The People’s Bank of China fixed the yuan’s reference rate at a record high today before the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee convenes a meeting to discuss the Asian nation’s currency policy. The Chinese central bank declined to comment on Japan’s intervention.

Calls from within the U.S. administration and congress for action have intensified after China ran up a $119 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in the first half of 2010, putting it on course to exceed last year’s total of $227 billion, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures.

Political Pressure

Japan’s decision to take steps to arrest the yen’s gains, which erode the competitiveness of the nation’s exports, will be closely watched by policy makers across the region, said Richard Yetsenga, the Hong Kong-based global head of emerging-markets currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc.

“In the rest of Asia, Japan’s intervention would be used as another piece of evidence that there is nothing necessarily inappropriate to their approaches to exchange-rate management,” Yetsenga said.

Policy makers in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and South Korea have signaled they may intervene if necessary to limit volatility in their currencies.

Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz, who eased currency controls last month, said Aug. 24 that the central bank “will be there” when there are excessive and sudden moves in the foreign-exchange market.

Asian Central Banks

Thailand’s Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Sept. 13 that the central bank is doing an “appropriate job of taking care” of the baht. Philippine authorities are “watchful” of gains in the nation’s currency, central bank Governor Amando Tetangco said in an e-mail late yesterday.

Economies around the world are counting on exports to buttress growth. President Barack Obama is seeking to double his nation’s overseas shipments in five years to bolster an economy hampered by elevated unemployment.

Japan intervened today for the first time since 2004 after a surge in the yen to the strongest level against the dollar in 15 years threatened to stunt the nation’s economic recovery. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said the finance ministry considers 82 per dollar to be the line of defense, after it reached a high of 82.88 earlier today.

The yen tumbled 2.4 percent to 85.06 per dollar as of 2:04 p.m. in Tokyo. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2.8 percent.

Countries like “South Korea will be thinking to themselves ‘what took you so long?’,” said Huw McKay, a senior international economist at Westpac Banking Group in Sydney. “Japan has been almost stoic in dealing with a strong yen since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed” two years ago, McKay said.

McKay said it would be “disingenuous” for other Asian nations to use Japan’s action as justification for their own intervention.

The real effective exchange rates of Japan’s competitors “have been very weak and relative to pre-crisis levels they haven’t come close to reclaiming those levels,” he said.
 
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From chinaview.cn (xinhua)


U.S. scholar says Chinese currency issue "90% political and 10% economic"
English.news.cn 2010-09-21 20:16:07 FeedbackPrintRSS

BEIJING, Sept. 21 (Xinhua) -- John Naisbitt, an U.S. futurist and the author of the best-seller "Megatrends," said Tuesday arguments about the Chinese currency are "90 percent political and 10 percent economic."

Naisbitt made the remarks here at a seminar hosted by the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCICC).
He pointed out that China has become a scapegoat for the domestic political problems of the United States and the European Union.

Pressure to appreciate the yuan is building, with some 93 U.S. lawmakers signing a letter a week ago urging Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives to schedule a vote on a bill to get tough with China.

The bill would allow the U.S. Commerce Department to slap countervailing and anti-dumping duties on "injurious imports from any country that persistently undervalues its currency."

On the one hand, the United States complains about the low value of the Chinese currency while on the other hand it blocks the export of high-tech goods to China, Naisbitt said.

Concerning Chinese competitiveness in the future, Naisbitt noted that China has made great efforts to move from imitation to innovation under a supportive policy environment.

In certain sectors such as nano-technology, biotechnology, robotics and information technology, China will probably dominate in the future, he said.

Editor: Wang Guanqun
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From Financial Times

Will the wheels come off for hub-and-spoke Chinese mega-city of Wuhan?
By Jamil Anderlini
Published: September 21 2010 17:11 | Last updated: September 21 2010 17:11

Many people outside China have probably never heard of Wuhan, a giant city on the middle stretches of the Yangtze River with an urban population of about 5m people.

But located as it is in the Chinese heartland – equidistant from Shanghai, the commercial capital, in the east and Guangzhou, manufacturing centre, in the south – Wuhan is a favoured destination for an estimated 2m rural migrants who have moved there in search of non-agricultural work and life in the big city.

To accommodate the expected future influx of migrants, the city has set expansion targets that are a model of the good intentions that characterise urban planning in China.

But even by the local government’s own admission, these plans will be difficult to realise.

So far, the urban expansion efforts have been concentrated in the areas where China excels – big infrastructure projects such as bridges, roads and large buildings.

The city recently completed its third huge railway station and its fifth mega-bridge across the mighty Yangtze.

But next will come the hard part – building a well-planned city that functions efficiently and provides a pleasant place for most of its citizens to live.

By 2020, the local government wants to have built a hub-and-spoke style mega-city with an urban population of nearly 12m people, the majority of whom will live in large spokes radiating from the city centre surrounded and separated by pleasant hills and water.

All suburbs will be connected with the city centre by express roads and a rail system but residents will be encouraged to work, play and live in their own part of the city without having to commute into town.

In its plan the local government has introduced strict regulations to protect the greenbelt, prevent urban sprawl and encourage denser urban areas that utilise space in the most efficient way.

But if more developed cities such as Shanghai and Beijing are anything to go by, these admirable plans are unlikely to be successfully implemented.

More probably, the suburbs will sprawl out and merge together as local officials and well-connected property developers grab land and chase quick profits from short-sighted but lucrative development.

Shanghai’s Pudong district across the river from the famous Bund was little more than paddy fields and low-rise industrial buildings 15 years ago, but today the vast sprawling suburbs that stretch out behind the shiny skyscrapers look like anywhere in middle America.

“If you want to see what other cities in China will look like in the future, just look at Pudong,” says one international urban planner who works full time on projects in China.

That means that Wuhan’s outskirts are probably also destined to resemble some corner of suburban California, with vast expanses of strip malls, gated communities and ever-expanding road networks.

Already, the number of vehicles on Wuhan’s roads has roughly trebled to nearly 1m in the past decade and the building of an 11km light railway line to ease the chronic traffic jams is generally regarded as a costly failure that has not reduced congestion, according to Gavekal Dragonomics, a research consultancy.

Plans are in the works for a 72km subway system but the cost is made much higher by the obstacle of the Yangtze River that cuts through the city.

There have been some successes in Wuhan, such as the improvement in wastewater treatment from about 50 per cent of all wastewater in 2005 to about 80 per cent today.

Wuhan is also a leading education centre, with some 700,000 university-level students who increasingly provide an educated workforce for the local economy.

With its ambitious expansion plans, the city at least has a legitimate blueprint to work from, but if past experience is any guide, its newly urbanised future citizens could find themselves living in just another vast, dysfunctional, gridlocked, polluted Chinese city.

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China’s rapid growth brings sprawl and missed opportunities
By Jamil Anderlini
Published: September 21 2010 17:11 | Last updated: September 21 2010 17:11

China’s urban population of 600m people is the world’s largest, and migration from the countryside to the cities is expected to be the main driver of its economic growth for decades to come.

In 1980, only about 20 per cent of China’s population lived in urban areas, but by 2007 that percentage had more than doubled and 45 per cent of the country’s 1.32bn inhabitants were classified as urban.

But until now the sprawling growth of Chinese cities has been haphazard and wasteful, to say the least.

Visitors to Chinese megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are often shocked by the gridlocked traffic, ugly architecture and choking pollution that hangs over the widening concentric circles of ring roads.

Despite the incredible pace of construction and development, urban planning in China feels like one huge missed opportunity, as historic infrastructure has been demolished and replaced with cheap and charmless expanses of urban sprawl.

Over the past 20 years, urban areas have expanded threefold to some 37,000 sq km, as 150m migrant workers from the countryside moved into the large eastern cities to find low-paid jobs.

According to the research company Gavekal Dragonomics, “the biggest factor in shaping the physical development of China’s cities is road design, which can quickly scupper compact urban planning goals.”

Many Chinese cities feel more and more like Los Angeles, without the beaches, glamour and good weather, as massive urban road building programmes and an explosion in private car ownership push boundaries ever outward.

“Chinese cities are creating a pattern of development that is unfriendly to public transport. Once you create this, it is hellish to fix,” Shomik Mehn diratta, a transport specialist at the World Bank in Beijing, recently told Dragonomics.

There are huge incentives for communist officials to expand city boundaries, as local governments derive as much as 40 per cent of their income from selling or leasing land.

By converting land previously designated as agricultural into commercial or industrial, officials can sell it on to private or state-owned developers for a huge profit.

This provides local governments with important revenue streams, but also enormous opportunities for corruption.

Officials often use road projects to mandate the conversion of agricultural land for construction, which explains their great attachment to ring roads, according to Gavekal Dragonomics.

“What’s the best way to take the land?” asks Mr Mehndiratta. “You draw a circle around the city and call it a ring road. It’s the most efficient way of circumscribing rural land. This means you have all the incentives for urban sprawl.”

By some estimates, a further 400m rural residents will swarm into the cities over the next two decades and officials in Beijing are constantly discussing how the country can accommodate this unprecedented internal migration.

McKinsey, the consultancy, argues that the most efficient way to urbanise all these people would be to encourage them to move into denser, more concentrated urban centres and focus on developing a small number of very large cities.

But the current pattern of urban growth is a “distributed” one that McKinsey predicts will see more than 100 new cities with populations of 500,000 to 1.5m spring up across the country, along with 60 new mid-sized cities with populations of between 1.5m and 5m.

That is an unfortunate prospect, because what hope there is for China to provide a new urban growth model that can serve as an inspiration for other countries is almost certain to come from the country’s megacities.

“Chinese cities are living with the hangover of its rapid development in recent years and their infrastructure has not been able to keep up,” says David Roberts, chief executive of Hong Kong-based Aedas, which claims the title as the world’s largest architecture company.

“But we think that, in the future, the urbanisation lessons learnt in China will be recycled into developed markets.”

Mr Roberts says that while sustainable building techniques were not a concern for anyone in China in the past, today every one of Aedas’ clients and projects in China aspires to some level of sustainability, environmental friendliness or energy saving.

“This issue is now taken very seriously and because almost all building materials are now made in China, the latest green building technology is available here,” Mr Roberts says.

With urbanisation taking place on a scale not seen before in history, all the largest international architects and urban planners are looking to China. Business analysts too, see the rapidly expanding urban population as the world’s greatest potential mass consumer market.

Official data show that an average of between 16m and 21m people moved from the countryside into cities each year over the past decade.

But equating this shift with the growth of the middle class is simplistic, as almost all the people moving into the cities are low-income migrants who cannot afford to consume goods and services like their urban cousins.

An outdated and discriminatory “household registration” system excludes these migrants from most social services in the cities and the exorbitant cost of urban housing means most migrants are often only temporary residents.

During the financial crisis, as many as 25m migrant workers were laid off and fled the cities to return to their land and villages, providing a stark reminder that much of the urbanisation is reversible.

In a recent article, Kam Wing Chan, a professor of geography at the University of Washington, Seattle, wrote: “China may well face an urban underclass rising to 250m people within 10 years” if the process of urbanisation is not handled better in the future.

***********************************
China must have the courage to save less
By George Magnus
Published: September 20 2010 20:48 | Last updated: September 20 2010 20:48

The renminbi, not for the first or last time, is the subject of a cacophonous debate in Washington and rising tensions between the US and China. When this happened in the spring, a series of confidence-building measures culminated in Beijing’s announcement in June that it would allow its currency to trade more flexibly. Sabre-rattling and subsequent de-escalation has become a pattern but with every occurrence the risks of new financial and economic turbulence are growing.

Recent US pressure on the issue, including last week’s referral by the administration of two complaints against China to the World Trade Organisation, can be explained partly by the unstable nature of US politics ahead of November’s Congressional elections. But this is about more than the need to curry favour among voters. Rather, the two giants of the world economy – one the biggest debtor, the other the biggest creditor – are skirmishing over how the global system should work in the aftermath of the financial crisis. At its heart, the debate is about who is to blame for economic imbalances and whose responsibility it is to right them.

For once, the answer is simple. The US and other western nations have been shocked into saving more and lowering private and public debts over the coming years. It follows that, if the world system is to function smoothly, someone has to save less. China and the other creditor nations are now in pole position to take the needed initiatives.

Yet Beijing seems unwilling to bend significantly. When the renminbi flexibility announcement was made three months ago, I suggested that it was a smart diplomatic move but little else. The currency barely moved until the beginning of September, since when it has risen more quickly to stand just over 1 per cent higher than in June. The timing of the most recent move up can be explained partly by the China-bashing chorus in the US and partly by the imminence of high-level political meetings and negotiations.

China has a strong argument that a higher renminbi would not help much to lower the US trade deficit, which is only partly about prices and much more about structural phenomena that underpin savings and investment imbalances in both countries. Japan’s intervention to weaken the yen last week also gives China cover to resist a higher renminbi. The near-silence in Washington on the Japanese move can only be understood in Beijing as targeted hostility. The presumption must be that Japan is no longer seen as a commercial threat, while China is both this and political rival.

Even so, a concession on Beijing’s part would not only be strategically astute; it would also accord with national interests. While holders of US assets – not least the central bank – would suffer under a large appreciation, a stronger renminbi is entirely in keeping with the shift to a more consumer-centric economy that is widely debated in Beijing. The longer this is deferred, the bigger the economic shock will be when it comes.

Although the exchange rate is the focus of attention, China’s underlying problem is an economic system that sustains national savings at more than 50 per cent of gross domestic product. Little will change unless an array of institutional, corporate, labour market and social security reforms are introduced to rebalance the economy towards local production and consumption. It will not happen without a big push.

Currency disputes are historically about deep-seated imbalances in the global economic system that demand corrective action and high levels of co-operation by both debtors and creditors. This does happen, for example during the Bretton Woods era and perhaps for a short time following the Plaza Accord, which has its 25th anniversary this week. But we know only too well that these were exceptions.

What is needed is global leadership. Unfortunately, both Washington and Beijing have been distracted by domestic constituencies. But creditor countries such as China are invariably better placed to take a lead, even if their reluctance is legendary. Here the US would make a difference if it could convince China that it was serious about lowering the budget deficit and public debt over time.

This will not be easy. The US lacks the political will to come up with such a plan, probably until after the 2012 presidential elections at best, while China is unlikely to embrace large-scale economic and social reform until after the 2012 leadership changeover. There is only so much the US can do in any event. In the end, it is China that must be persuaded.

Premier Wen Jibao’s visit this week to the UN poverty summit in New York and to see President Barack Obama will be an opportunity to calm things down, not least because the US Treasury is scheduled to publish its latest semi-annual currency report in mid-October. This might accuse China of manipulation, a charge that could entail bringing the case to the WTO and the imposition of tariffs.

If, for their own reasons, the US and China are unable or unwilling to engage with each other over trade and exchange rate issues, the chances of collaboration in other vital policy matters look slim. Failure would leave a vacuum, which could only be filled by protectionism. In that event, the process of deglobalisation would have begun – and that is nobody’s interests, least of all China’s.

The writer is senior economic adviser at UBS Investment Bank and author of ‘Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy?’

***********************************
Beijing is right to ignore the currency pleas
By Stephen King
Published: September 19 2010 20:28 | Last updated: September 19 2010 20:28

While everyone in Washington thinks the renminbi should be revalued, not everyone in China agrees. Maybe the Chinese are right? It is, after all, easy to blame trade imbalances on the evil exchange rate machinations of others. In the mid-1980s Japan’s surplus was supposedly the consequence of a deliberately undervalued yen. But while the yen has since risen a good deal – as shown by last week’s decision by the Bank of Japan to lower the exchange rate – its surplus has stubbornly grown too.

Now it is China that attracts Washington’s ire. The US rightly recognises China as its global rival in the 21st century, one reason Beijing is unenthusiastic about caving in to Washington’s demands. But China’s reluctance also reflects more justified doubts. The conventional wisdom was expressed clearly by Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, in his congressional testimony last week: undervaluation “helps China’s export sector and means imports are more expensive in China than they otherwise would be”, thereby leading to lower domestic consumption. This argument assumes that movements in nominal exchange rates lead to lasting adjustments in competitiveness, and also that these in turn will deliver reductions in current global imbalances. Both the arguments are badly flawed.

On the first, China’s per capita incomes are still low, about $3,000 per annum compared with $40,000 in the US. The gap is slowly closing because of the way China’s new openness has attracted high-quality capital and management which, in combination with a surplus of remarkably cheap labour, makes China super-competitive. In other words, China’s growing share of world trade has nothing to do with undervaluation.

Moreover, a revaluation would do little to change China’s competitive position. The most important resource misallocation in China is under-utilised labour. China’s almost limitless reserve of poor rural workers constrains how quickly wages can rise – given that modestly higher wages attract more labour to its booming cities, which in turn limit further wage gains. Should the renminbi appreciate, those limits would become even greater and a temporary loss of export competitiveness would be offset by lower domestic wages. China’s leaders, therefore, are quite right to argue that a rise in the exchange rate would achieve little beyond the very short term and would harm China’s workers in the long term.

The second assumption is just as doubtful. It is true that policymakers persistently strive to shift exchange rates as means of economic “rebalancing”. Japan tried in the 1980s, but as its exports softened so its economy boomed, paving the way for the late-1980s bubble and the deflationary stagnation that followed. In the UK, sterling fell in 2008, but trade performance remains miserable. China could quite fairly cite either example as a reason not to move aggressively.

But does the rise in Beijing’s foreign exchange reserves not prove that China is manipulating its exchange rate? Even here I am not convinced. China is likely to want to switch out of US debt into a broader range of assets, including American companies. Yet Congress could hardly be less enthusiastic. Indeed, given the House of Representatives tends to prohibit Chinese takeovers on national security grounds, China is almost obliged to invest its surplus in dollars.

Because China is now the second-biggest economy in the world, by definition any renminbi appreciation is simultaneously a dollar depreciation. So after all of this, it is probably more accurate to describe America’s exchange policy as one of dollar devaluation, rather than renminbi revaluation – reflecting not America’s trade difficulties but its excessive debts. Should the dollar decline, the value of all those Treasuries issued to support America’s financial system would be worth a lot less in renminbi terms. And that, to the Chinese, would feel suspiciously like a default. No wonder they are not keen on seeing a rise.

So what can be done? The US needs to pull back from what is becoming increasingly protectionist rhetoric. Americans should not forget that their own fiscal stimulus has been possible only thanks to the deep pockets of creditor nations such as China. Sanctions would simply send the world into a downward spiral of protectionism, exchange rate upheavals and interest rate shocks.

Far better, then, for the US to recognise that mutual dependence between these two superpowers makes any such threat counterproductive. Meanwhile, the US should work with Beijing to push much-needed social security and consumer credit reforms in China’s domestic economy. Until these happen, and Chinese households learn how to spend rather than save, China’s current account surplus will not go away, no matter where the renminbi ends up.

The writer is chief economist at HSBC and author of ‘Losing Control: The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity’
 
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yuandollarbushengzhi.jpg

6.75 Yuan-Dollar exchange rate

The Yuan-Dollar exchange rate is fluctuating again. For a long time, the Yuan was fixed at 8.27 to the U.S. dollar. During the last five years, the Yuan appreciated 21 percent against the dollar and the new exchange was 6.83 Yuan per dollar. The Yuan is now at its strongest of 6.75 per dollar.

Appreciate This: Chinese Currency Rise Will Have a Negligible Effect on the Trade Deficit | Daniel J. Ikenson | Cato Institute: Free Trade Bulletin

"Weak Link between Currency Values and Trade Flows

Recent evidence suggests that RMB appreciation will not reduce the U.S. trade deficit and undermines the common political argument for compelling China to revalue. Between July 2005 and July 2008, the RMB appreciated by 21 percent against the dollar-from a value of $.1208 to $.1464.4 During that same period (between the full year 2005 and the full year 2008), the U.S. trade deficit with China increased from $202 to $268 billion."

UPDATE: China Yuan Hits Modern-Era High After Dollar's Record Low Fixing - WSJ.com

"UPDATE: China Yuan Hits Modern-Era High After Dollar's Record Low Fixing
SEPTEMBER 13, 2010, 6:02 A.M. ET

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China's yuan hit a modern-era high against the U.S. dollar Monday afternoon and set a modern-era closing high late afternoon, after the People's Bank of China set the yuan's reference rate for daily trading at its strongest level against the dollar since the central bank began publishing the daily fixing in 1994.

Traders said the central bank could be guiding the yuan higher for a new period of yuan appreciation, but further signs of rising inflation and export strength would be needed for the trend to be sustainable.

On the over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY6.7618 around 0930 GMT, down from Friday's close of CNY6.7692 and marking its lowest closing level in the modern era. It traded as low as CNY6.7568, its lowest intraday level against the U.S. unit since the 1980s, before the Chinese currency was allowed to be regularly traded as part of China's market-oriented reforms. Monday's intraday high was CNY6.7675.

The PBOC set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at 6.7509, down from the previous record low of 6.7625 set Friday.

Market volume was relatively light as traders and businesses refrained from taking large positions in either the dollar or the yuan, waiting for cues of where the yuan will head next, traders said.

"I don't know if this is a sign that the yuan will continue to appreciate," said a Shanghai-based trader at a local bank. "A low fixing level for one or two days can't give me the answer."

The yuan's appreciation Monday, following sharp gains Friday, comes after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in an interview Friday that China hadn't done enough to allow the yuan to rise, and followed meetings in Beijing last week between Chinese leaders and senior White House officials including National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers. Geithner is due to testify at hearings on the yuan to be held by the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee this week.

"China took the very important step in June of signaling that they're going to let the exchange rate start to reflect market forces. But they've done very, very little, they've let it move very, very little in the interim," Geithner said in the interview.

The rise also came after data Friday showed China's trade surplus narrowed sharply to $20.03 billion in August, but the country's surplus with the U.S. widened to 90% of the total from about two thirds in July, increasing the possibility the U.S. Congress will push for legislation to penalize China for tightly controlling its exchange rate.

Traders said Beijing is likely willing to let the yuan rise to avoid economic overheating and to combat imported inflation, after China's economy rebounded in August and consumer prices rose by a 22-month high. But it is too early to say whether the yuan will continue to rise in the near term, they said.

"We just had three days of lower fixings," said Prakash Sakpal, an economist at ING Groep NV in Singapore. "We need to see consistently lower fixings to say that they have shifted to a strong yuan policy."

Offshore, the one-year dollar-yuan nondeliverable forward contract fell to 6.6430/6.6580 from 6.6732/6.6782 late Friday.

-By Joy C. Shaw, Dow Jones Newswires; (86-21) 6120-1200; joy.shaw@dowjones.com"
 
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Shanghai port's container throughput ranks first in the world - People's Daily OnlineSeptember 21, 2010

Due to the strong recovery of China's imports and exports, the Port of Shanghai's total container throughput in the first eight months of 2010 stood at more than 19 million standard containers, making it the largest container port in the world.

According to statistics, the Port of Shanghai's container throughput stood at more than 2.6 million standard containers in August 2010, up nearly 21 percent compared to the same period last year, and setting a new monthly record. As the two core ports of the Shanghai International Shipping Center are under construction, the throughput of the Yangshan Deepwater Port and the Waiguoqiao Port also kept increasing.

In August, the Yangshan Port Area's total throughput amounted to 960,800 standard containers, up almost 37 percent compared to the same period last year, including an underwater throughput of 380,400 standard containers, up nearly 9 percent from the previous year. The Waigaoqiao Port Area completed a throughput of more than 1.3 million standard containers, up more than 14 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.

Benefiting from the high-speed growth in August, the port's total throughput has exceeded that of Singapore (19.01 million standard containers), and has taken first place in world for the first time.

The number of the ships and people entering and exiting China in the two ports of Shanghai both reached their highest levels. According to statistics of the Yangshan Frontier Inspection Station, the Yangshan Deepwater Port received and sent 805 ships in August, up nearly 11 percent compared to that of July, and received and sent 18,001 people, up nearly 18 percent compared to that of July.

By People's Daily Online
 
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Shanghai port's container throughput ranks first in the world - People's Daily OnlineSeptember 21, 2010

Due to the strong recovery of China's imports and exports, the Port of Shanghai's total container throughput in the first eight months of 2010 stood at more than 19 million standard containers, making it the largest container port in the world.

According to statistics, the Port of Shanghai's container throughput stood at more than 2.6 million standard containers in August 2010, up nearly 21 percent compared to the same period last year, and setting a new monthly record. As the two core ports of the Shanghai International Shipping Center are under construction, the throughput of the Yangshan Deepwater Port and the Waiguoqiao Port also kept increasing.

In August, the Yangshan Port Area's total throughput amounted to 960,800 standard containers, up almost 37 percent compared to the same period last year, including an underwater throughput of 380,400 standard containers, up nearly 9 percent from the previous year. The Waigaoqiao Port Area completed a throughput of more than 1.3 million standard containers, up more than 14 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.

Benefiting from the high-speed growth in August, the port's total throughput has exceeded that of Singapore (19.01 million standard containers), and has taken first place in world for the first time.

The number of the ships and people entering and exiting China in the two ports of Shanghai both reached their highest levels. According to statistics of the Yangshan Frontier Inspection Station, the Yangshan Deepwater Port received and sent 805 ships in August, up nearly 11 percent compared to that of July, and received and sent 18,001 people, up nearly 18 percent compared to that of July.

By People's Daily Online


I saw a documentary on Shanghai's superport, the scale and scope of it is just amazing. The mods should make this a sticky. What do you guys think?
 
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I saw a documentary on Shanghai's superport, the scale and scope of it is just amazing. The mods should make this a sticky. What do you guys think?

I like your idea, but it won't happen once they decide to lock up first the "China economy and updates" thread and even "global economy" later. Thats the reality here for now.:china:
 
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China takes lead in financial deals
By Lina Saigol in London and Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: September 23 2010 19:31 | Last updated: September 23 2010 19:31

Deals and capital raisings in China’s booming financial services sector have outpaced those in the US for the first time since records began in 1995, fuelled by a wave of refinancings by Chinese banks needing to repair their balance sheets.

There have been $36.2bn-worth of deals in China’s financial sector so far this year, compared with $26.2bn in the same sector in the US, according to data from Dealogic.

Bankers said the increase in deal flow was being driven by large refinancings by Chinese banks as they move to shore up their capital this year, rather than full takeovers.

“The Chinese government has been rigorous and disciplined about maintaining strong capital ratios in the banking system and as a result one may see more and more capital allocation and reallocation among financial services companies,” said John Studzinski, head of Blackstone’s global advisory business.

In response to the financial crisis, Beijing ordered a credit-fuelled investment boom in late 2008 to boost flagging growth and in 2009 Chinese banks handed out roughly double the volume of new loans extended the previous year.
2d1b8390-c73c-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.JPG

That led to deteriorating balance sheets and this year China’s big lenders have unveiled plans to raise a combined total of close to Rmb400bn ($59.6bn).

Senior Chinese mergers and acquisitions bankers and analysts said the bulk of the volume showing up as deal activity was actually related to this refinancing. The largest Chinese finance sector deal so far this year, for example, was the acquisition by China Mobile of a 20 per cent stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank for $5.8bn in March.

Bankers describe this deal as “shuffling the deck” by the government, which effectively ordered cash-rich, state-controlled China Mobile to pour some of its outsize profits into state-controlled SPDB to help shore up its balance sheet.

However, the Chinese data have been skewed by the inclusion of initial public offerings, such as Agricultural Bank of China’s $22.1bn offering.

Meanwhile, the number of deals being carried out by US financial services groups has fallen to the lowest year-to-date volume since 1995.

Frank Aquila, mergers partner at international law firm Sullivan & Cromwell, said US financial sector M&A was slow following the subprime mortgage crisis.

Not only are many banks still struggling with losses from the period, but the regulatory environment has been very uncertain. The recently passed Dodd-Frank financial reform act will force many institutions to reshape their businesses.

“We will see further consolidation in the US, but that probably won’t happen until the US economy is on firmer footing,” Mr Aquila said.

Investment can lift China’s consumption
Published: September 24 2010 03:58 | Last updated: September 24 2010 03:58
From Prof John Ross.

Sir, Martin Wolf (“Wen is right to worry about China’s growth”, September 22) writes China has “the lowest share of consumption in any significant economy ever. In a country with hundreds of millions of poor people, it is even shocking”. A claim that this is “shocking” confuses consumption’s share in gross domestic product with consumption’s level and growth rate.

Over the last 30 years, China had both the highest GDP growth rate of a major economy and the highest consumption growth rate – whether defined as household consumption or total consumption including government services. China’s annual average growth of household consumption was 8.6 per cent, total consumption 8.7 per cent and GDP 9.8 per cent, on World Bank development indicators.

Such relative growth rates indeed show a falling share of consumption in GDP – a trend Mr Wolf notes. But in every country there is a close correlation between growth of GDP and consumption. China can only maintain a high growth rate of consumption, the key to improving living standards, by a high GDP growth rate, which in turn relates to investment.

In GDP growth, a decisive factor, as Mr Wolf notes, is investment’s quantity and efficiency. Prior to the financial crisis, taking five-year moving averages to eliminate cyclical factors, the correlation between China’s percentage of fixed investment in GDP and GDP growth was 3.7:1 – slightly better than the figure in Mr Wolf’s article.

There is evidence that as an economy develops the fixed investment to GDP growth ratio increases – the south-east Asian Tiger economies all experienced this and the equivalent US ratio is 7:1.

The conclusion for developing consumption and living standards in China is, therefore, necessarily the opposite to the one Mr Wolf draws. If the fixed investment to GDP growth ratio increases as an economy develops, while consumption and GDP growth are correlated, then to maintain the same rate of growth of consumption requires a rising percentage of investment in GDP – the phenomenon in China. A decline in investment’s percentage in GDP would necessarily lead to a fall in the GDP growth rate.

The column, unfortunately, therefore proposes policies which would lead to China’s population having lower consumption and living standard than otherwise possible.

John Ross,

Visiting Professor,
Jiao Tong University,
Shanghai, China
 
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chinatoptradepartners1.jpg

U.S. constituted 13.9% of China's trade in 2007.

The United States has fallen into second place on China's list of major trade partners for 2007 and the trend of diminishing relative importance is likely to continue.

Firstly, the developing world is growing much faster than the developed world. With larger economies, the developing world will conduct more trade with China and the U.S. proportion will shrink.

IndustryWeek : BRIC Nations to Drive Global Growth

"BRIC Nations to Drive Global Growth
Brazil is forecast to grow 5.5%- 6% this year, China 10%, India 7%, Russia 5.5%
May 19, 2010"

Secondly, China has signed free-trade-agreements (i.e. FTA) with ASEAN (e.g. CAFTA) and Taiwan (e.g. ECFA). CAFTA came into effect on January 1st of this year and trade between China and ASEAN has increased dramatically. The China-Taiwan ECFA came into effect on September 12, 2010 and it should also significantly boost future trade.

China Business News: China-Malaysia trade surges 67% in H1

"China-Malaysia trade surges 67% in H1

Sep. 24, 2010 (China Knowledge) - China, the world's largest exporter, saw its bilateral trade with Malaysia soared 67% year on year to US$35 billion in the first half of this year, due to the launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area at the beginning of this year, said Pi Qing, the Chinese consulate-general, in Kuching, East Malaysia, sources reported.
...
In the first half of this year, trade value between China and the ASEAN countries rose 55% year on year to US$136.5 billion. China's exports to the ASEAN jumped 45% to US$64.6 billion during the period, while its imports from these countries grew 64% to US$71.9 billion."

Thirdly, China is growing economically at 8 to 10% a year. As the manufacturing center of the world, China's economic growth requires raw materials. However, the United States is not a major exporter of commodities. Hence, China's economic boom is benefiting areas like Australia, Brazil, and Africa. By increasing imports from commodity exporting nations, those nations grow wealthy and will have the money to buy more goods from China.

Australia enjoying economic boom | World | News | Toronto Sun

"Australia enjoying economic boom
By Wayne Cole, Reuters
Last Updated: September 22, 2010 4:13am

SYDNEY - Australia is in the midst of a modern gold rush as voracious Asian demand for resources stokes a boom in mining investment that should last years; setting it far apart from much of the rest of the developed world."

Fourthly, the American consumer is heavily in debt and "tapped out." There won't be sustained significant growth in American demand for China's products for many years to come.

20 Signs That The American Consumer Is Now Completely Tapped Out

"20 Signs That The American Consumer Is Now Completely Tapped Out
Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse | Sep. 15, 2010, 10:09 AM
...
The truth is that living on credit for decades has caught up with us as a nation. Americans are absolutely drowning in mortgage debt, car loans, credit card debt and student loan debt. As wages have stagnated, credit has enabled many of us to pursue the American Dream and to live far beyond our means, but that doesn't last forever. Now tens of millions of Americans are completely and totally tapped out. But without the return of the voracious American "consumer" there is not going to be a full economic "recovery".

For decades, the American consumer has always returned with a vengeance. Continually expanding debt loads have fueled a level of prosperity that most of humanity only dreams of. But unfortunately, no debt bubble lasts forever.

Now the consumer debt bubble in America has started to pop, and many are wondering what is going to fuel the U.S. economy if American consumers are unwilling or unable to do it any longer."

What is one of the major implications of the diminishing American role in international trade? One important trend that we are likely to see is that other countries are satisfied with their economic growth and trade relationship with China. China's growing imports (e.g. imports "grew 64% to US$71.9 billion" from ASEAN in the first half of this year) and free-trade-agreements are spurring growth in their countries.

Increasingly, America will have to confront China alone with U.S. complaints and dissatisfaction. Ironically, China is the largest growing major export market for American products.

U.S. set to be a posse of one on China yuan at G20 | Reuters

"U.S. set to be a posse of one on China yuan at G20
Sun Sep 26, 2010 12:07pm EDT

* Geithner may stand alone on currency issue
* G20 host South Korea says yuan inappropriate topic
* U.S. administration tries to placate Congress
* China's economic clout silences critics

By Paul Eckert

WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner faces a lonely campaign to make China's currency a major issue at the next Group of 20 summit as would-be allies shrink from confronting Beijing."

China fastest-growing US overseas market: Geithner

"China fastest-growing US overseas market: Geithner
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-09-17 10:02

WASHINGTON - US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday said that China was the fastest- growing major overseas market for the United States and the two countries had very significant economic interests in their relationship."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/11/business/global/11iht-yuan.html

"China Trade Surplus Narrows as Imports Jump
By BETTINA WASSENER
Published: September 10, 2010

HONG KONG — A surprisingly large increase in imports caused China’s trade surplus to narrow in August, data released Friday showed.
...
But economists were surprised by the size of the growth in China’s imports — up 35.2 percent from August 2009. That appeared to signal that domestic demand had rebounded despite Beijing’s efforts in recent months to rein in the pace of Chinese economic growth and to slow the inflationary pressures that had built up as a result."
 
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