Chinese city the size of New York predicts 27 per cent birth rate drop

[Mista]

One of the most populous cities on China’s east coast predicts that the number of local births will plummet by 27 per cent this year from 2019, further signalling that the country is facing a demographic crisis.

Local authorities in Ningbo, where the population of roughly 8.5 million is similar in size to that of New York, said in a recent report that the number of newborns in the city looks to be about 36,000 in 2020. That would mark a steep decline of 27 per cent from last year’s 49,464 births.

In the first half of this year, Ningbo reported 17,945 new births, down nearly 20 per cent from a year earlier, according to the half-year report published by the city’s health authorities in late August.

So far, Ningbo is the only Chinese city to have published its half-year population update. The Chinese government does not release nationwide forecasts for new births, and few Chinese cities make such public predictions.

But while the demographic estimate for Ningbo – the third most populous city in Zhejiang province, after the capital city of Hangzhou and Wenzhou – represents only a single city, it serves to fuel concerns over China’s declining birth rate.

The Health Commission of Ningbo did not give a specific reason for the deep fall in new births. However, the trend is clear in the world’s second-biggest economy that its population is quickly ageing while the labour force and fertility rate continue to decline.

While China has allowed every couple to have two children since 2016, when it ended the notorious one-child policy that was enforced for nearly four decades, the desire among citizens to get married and have babies has plunged.

And according to Ningbo authorities, China’s two-child policy is losing traction. Among the women who gave birth in Ningbo in the first half of the year, the proportion of those having their second child was 38.9 per cent, down 2.5 percentage points from a year earlier.

As a result, Ningbo authorities said they plan to improve public services and infrastructure to provide more daycare options, in hopes of encouraging people to have children.

Few local governments in China release their birth figures regularly. Chongqing municipality in southwestern China published monthly birth figures in 2019 in an effort to boost data transparency, but this resulted in a controversy over the quality of its data. Chongqing decided to halt the release of monthly data this year, after what it claimed was “unfair coverage from the Western media”.

Nationwide data shows that the number of newborns in China sank to a nearly six-decade low last year. Mothers in China gave birth to 14.65 million babies last year, down from 15.23 million in 2018, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday.

Last year’s figure was the lowest since 1961.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...e-problems-underlined-ningbo-projects-27-cent

 

[Mista]

Local authorities in Ningbo, where the population of roughly 8.5 million is similar in size to that of New York, said in a recent report that the number of newborns in the city looks to be about 36,000 in 2020.

In comparison, Singapore has a resident population of around 4 million, and around 40K babies are born every year.

Ningbo's TFR is likely to be much lower than Singapore's TFR of ~1.2.

 

[Figaro]

Just scrap the two child policy ... don't know why they still have any form of birth control/family planning around with these ridiculously low birth rates anyway.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

In comparison, Singapore has a resident population of around 4 million, and around 40K babies are born every year.

Ningbo's TFR is likely to be much lower than Singapore's TFR of ~1.2.

Any reasons stated..like maintaining a standard of living?

 

[Place Of Space]

One of the most populous cities on China’s east coast predicts that the number of local births will plummet by 27 per cent this year from 2019, further signalling that the country is facing a demographic crisis.

Local authorities in Ningbo, where the population of roughly 8.5 million is similar in size to that of New York, said in a recent report that the number of newborns in the city looks to be about 36,000 in 2020. That would mark a steep decline of 27 per cent from last year’s 49,464 births.

In the first half of this year, Ningbo reported 17,945 new births, down nearly 20 per cent from a year earlier, according to the half-year report published by the city’s health authorities in late August.

So far, Ningbo is the only Chinese city to have published its half-year population update. The Chinese government does not release nationwide forecasts for new births, and few Chinese cities make such public predictions.

But while the demographic estimate for Ningbo – the third most populous city in Zhejiang province, after the capital city of Hangzhou and Wenzhou – represents only a single city, it serves to fuel concerns over China’s declining birth rate.

The Health Commission of Ningbo did not give a specific reason for the deep fall in new births. However, the trend is clear in the world’s second-biggest economy that its population is quickly ageing while the labour force and fertility rate continue to decline.

While China has allowed every couple to have two children since 2016, when it ended the notorious one-child policy that was enforced for nearly four decades, the desire among citizens to get married and have babies has plunged.

And according to Ningbo authorities, China’s two-child policy is losing traction. Among the women who gave birth in Ningbo in the first half of the year, the proportion of those having their second child was 38.9 per cent, down 2.5 percentage points from a year earlier.

As a result, Ningbo authorities said they plan to improve public services and infrastructure to provide more daycare options, in hopes of encouraging people to have children.

Few local governments in China release their birth figures regularly. Chongqing municipality in southwestern China published monthly birth figures in 2019 in an effort to boost data transparency, but this resulted in a controversy over the quality of its data. Chongqing decided to halt the release of monthly data this year, after what it claimed was “unfair coverage from the Western media”.

Nationwide data shows that the number of newborns in China sank to a nearly six-decade low last year. Mothers in China gave birth to 14.65 million babies last year, down from 15.23 million in 2018, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday.

Last year’s figure was the lowest since 1961.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...e-problems-underlined-ningbo-projects-27-cent

Urbanization causes birth rates decline.

 

[Song Hong]

High (and unaffordable) property price with respect to wages affects fertility.

Too little reward for child raising family. But then if uneducated family get incentive for having kids, then we will have a baby factory producing lower quality citizen. Problem is how to make high quality people make babies?

I suggest bonus points in national exams.

 

[Song Hong]

Countries like Singapore will never have high fertility rate due to employment and many other bias against man. Too many women like to work as a result. If we disregards the elites and managers, Singaporean women have more more job stability and wages than man.

In addition.... higher status in schools

My friends daughter in high school often brag she is privileged compared to her male classmate. She can choose not to go exercise class, or any other enrichment programs (complain menses come).

Teacher will not scold her for any disciplinary problem or else she complain harassment.....

One of the most populous cities on China’s east coast predicts that the number of local births will plummet by 27 per cent this year from 2019, further signalling that the country is facing a demographic crisis.

Local authorities in Ningbo, where the population of roughly 8.5 million is similar in size to that of New York, said in a recent report that the number of newborns in the city looks to be about 36,000 in 2020. That would mark a steep decline of 27 per cent from last year’s 49,464 births.

In the first half of this year, Ningbo reported 17,945 new births, down nearly 20 per cent from a year earlier, according to the half-year report published by the city’s health authorities in late August.

So far, Ningbo is the only Chinese city to have published its half-year population update. The Chinese government does not release nationwide forecasts for new births, and few Chinese cities make such public predictions.

But while the demographic estimate for Ningbo – the third most populous city in Zhejiang province, after the capital city of Hangzhou and Wenzhou – represents only a single city, it serves to fuel concerns over China’s declining birth rate.

The Health Commission of Ningbo did not give a specific reason for the deep fall in new births. However, the trend is clear in the world’s second-biggest economy that its population is quickly ageing while the labour force and fertility rate continue to decline.

While China has allowed every couple to have two children since 2016, when it ended the notorious one-child policy that was enforced for nearly four decades, the desire among citizens to get married and have babies has plunged.

And according to Ningbo authorities, China’s two-child policy is losing traction. Among the women who gave birth in Ningbo in the first half of the year, the proportion of those having their second child was 38.9 per cent, down 2.5 percentage points from a year earlier.

As a result, Ningbo authorities said they plan to improve public services and infrastructure to provide more daycare options, in hopes of encouraging people to have children.

Few local governments in China release their birth figures regularly. Chongqing municipality in southwestern China published monthly birth figures in 2019 in an effort to boost data transparency, but this resulted in a controversy over the quality of its data. Chongqing decided to halt the release of monthly data this year, after what it claimed was “unfair coverage from the Western media”.

Nationwide data shows that the number of newborns in China sank to a nearly six-decade low last year. Mothers in China gave birth to 14.65 million babies last year, down from 15.23 million in 2018, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday.

Last year’s figure was the lowest since 1961.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...e-problems-underlined-ningbo-projects-27-cent

 

[Brainsucker]

High (and unaffordable) property price with respect to wages affects fertility.

Too little reward for child raising family. But then if uneducated family get incentive for having kids, then we will have a baby factory producing lower quality citizen. Problem is how to make high quality people make babies?

I suggest bonus points in national exams.

That is the core problem. Too little reward for child raising family. Children are not a future investment anymore. There are many people abandon their parents. This happen to Western countries, and now started to reach East Asian societies.

That's why in order to people want to reproduce again, the Government needs to make a law that taking care of the parents are responsible of their own children, by law. Children who neglected their parents will have to face law.

 

[Mista]

Any reasons stated..like maintaining a standard of living?

East Asians tend to have low TFRs.

Reasons I can think of:

1) Irreligiosity
2) Huge amount of resources spent on kids, especially on education
3) Virtually non-existent out-of-wedlock births.

 

[scherz]

High (and unaffordable) property price with respect to wages affects fertility.

Too little reward for child raising family. But then if uneducated family get incentive for having kids, then we will have a baby factory producing lower quality citizen. Problem is how to make high quality people make babies?

I suggest bonus points in national exams.

- subsidized housing per child based on the income of the parents. Subsidization rises with the income to avoid poor families get too much children.
- highly subsidized full-time school/education with direct bus transport and meal from the age of 1.
- One Year paid (state paid) mother of father vacation after birth. With job guarantee.
- free ride for the public transport for children and youths.
- more paid vacation (state paid, not company paid) for parents per child. To attract academic, working families.
- family care programms, mentors, nannies.

On contrary: Sanctions against families who can't afford more children but still get more. Maybe castration.

 

[Brainsucker]

- subsidized housing per child based on the income of the parents. Subsidization rises with the income to avoid poor families get too much children.
- highly subsidized full-time school/education with direct bus transport and meal from the age of 1.
- One Year paid (state paid) mother of father vacation after birth. With job guarantee.
- free ride for the public transport for children and youths.
- more paid vacation (state paid, not company paid) for parents per child. To attract academic, working families.
- family care programms, mentors, nannies.

On contrary: Sanctions against families who can't afford more children but still get more. Maybe castration.

You don't need all that. You just need a law that explicitly state that all children must take care their parents. If they neglect it, they have to face the law.

 

[PeacefulWar]

Countries like Singapore will never have high fertility rate due to employment and many other bias against man. Too many women like to work as a result. If we disregards the elites and managers, Singaporean women have more more job stability and wages than man.

In addition.... higher status in schools

My friends daughter in high school often brag she is privileged compared to her male classmate. She can choose not to go exercise class, or any other enrichment programs (complain menses come).

Teacher will not scold her for any disciplinary problem or else she complain harassment.....

How about provide free and good quality education to all citizens instead divide people into high/low quality people?
TBH, your idea sucks.
There's no such divisions even in ancient China and now proposal this in 2020?

 

[Song Hong]

I am among the most pro-people and anti-elite in this forum.

Whether high or low quality people, everyone who get the benefit of bonus points in national exams. Similar to everyone regardless or high or low quality people benefit from free education.

You already got mostly what you want -- free education at basic level ( not at college level for some countries).

while basic education is mostly free (or low cost) in most countries, the elites move ahead by sending kids to enrichment class. You cannot make enrichment free so rich kid still move ahead. Today most middle class East Asian is jumping into enrichment class like crazy and complain no monies for another baby.

How about provide free and good quality education to all citizens instead divide people into high/low quality people?
TBH, your idea sucks.
There's no such divisions even in ancient China and now proposal this in 2020?

 

[Song Hong]

The easiest way to be a racist and genocide-ist is to provide free food, free healthcare, free education, free monies and free house to those with babies.

The German and many European are doing that, taxing their middle class dry. Then the middle-Easterners came and breed like nobody business. For every single baby, the get a few hundred Euro more every month. The middle easterners even import polygamy to breed ever more. These people live off welfare like kings.

The babies grow up were taught to hate the German host who treat them kindly. Naturally these babies fail and fail in schools. They were taught something such as everyone are racists against Muslims... bla bla

The NGOs, Jews, Soros-funded organization all jump and accuse the German as racist against Muslims.

Some of these babies became suicide bombers to kill many of their host, who paid all the monies for bringing up these terrorists.

 

[Feng Leng]

Chinese people try too hard to advance beyond their station. To do so, children are sacrificed.

People just need to be content with their station. If somebody is born a laborer, then he should be content to be a laborer. His child is not going to be secretary general of the CCP.

Social mobility is not necessarily a good thing. It makes people greedy and unrealistic.

I like the way Japanese do it. They just take care of everybody and then people are content with their station.