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China's vulnerability in Malacca Strait

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China's vulnerability in Malacca Strait

Toronto, ON, Canada, — The Strait of Malacca is where the Pacific Ocean meets the Indian Ocean. It is the route that China-bound oil shipments take. All India must do to prevent a Chinese invasion of its northeast or Kashmir is to block this route. With its naval build-up of the last 10 years, and especially its recently announced purchases, India could do this.
India has U.S.-made submarine hunter-killer planes – Boeing P-8s equipped with Harpoon missiles – one Russian and one Indian-made aircraft carrier, French Scorpene attack submarines and an Indian-built nuclear submarine with missiles reaching hundreds of miles. It can arm its Russian and Indian-made destroyers and frigates with Brahmos sea-denial missiles, and has shore-based naval attack capability. The Chinese could not cope with this formidable force.

Add to this India’s growing network-centric capability and the Chinese are completely outmaneuvered.

If China put together a large force to neutralize India at the western end of the Strait of Malacca, it would weaken its home naval defenses in the South China Sea. Hence, China will continue to posture and send its navy on Indian Ocean cruises – but a formidable opposition is already building.

Moving into the Indian Ocean prematurely was a wrong move on China’s part. It alerted India and prompted a defensive build-up to counter China’s advances. China’s recent deployment of naval destroyers in the Gulf of Aden on anti-piracy missions revealed its newly acquired naval capability. An incident concocted by the Chinese press, in which an Indian Kilo-class submarine allegedly confronted a Chinese Aegis-class ship in the Gulf of Somalia, indicated China’s deep concerns about the growing prowess of the Indian Navy.

All China’s moves in the Indian Ocean – such as acquiring Coco Island from Myanmar and building up Gawadar Naval base in Pakistan – have been to intimidate India. India got the message and has begun building up its own naval forces. Its naval base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, gives India a big advantage.

China’s offensive naval capability away from home has grown exponentially with the acquisition of nuclear submarines. It is refitting a Russian and a homemade aircraft carrier, which may be ready in seven years. Surveillance capability from Coco Island off the Myanmar coast has also enhanced its effectiveness.
Chins has four Sovremenny-class destroyers purchased from the Russians and delivered in 2000 and 2006. These are its most potent warships. Originally designed by the Soviets to attack U.S. naval flotillas on the high seas, the Moskit anti-ship missile is a very potent weapon. But its limited range of 10 to 120 kilometers is lower than the Indian Brahmos sea-denial missile, with a range of 300 kilometers. Sovremenny-class ships also carry long- and short-range ship-to-shore missiles – effective if the Chinese get too close to Indian coastal bases.

China has launched its own “total weapons system” in its Aegis-equipped destroyers, developed from stolen and copied Russian technology to counter U.S. Aegis-class ships on Taiwan patrol duty. Its capability to launch long-range anti-aircraft missiles and sea surveillance is noteworthy, but how closely the Chinese copy resembles the original is unknown.

Most noteworthy in China’s naval arsenal is its fleet of submarines. In the last 10 years China has taken delivery of 12 Russian Kilo-class submarines. These, together with two new nuclear-powered submarines – the Jin class to carry ballistic missiles and Shang class attack submarines – are more potent than their ships. Nuclear ballistic missiles on board the Jin-class submarine are meant to intimidate the United States and Japan.

A large mix of these ships and submarines could travel to the Indian Ocean from China’s newly built naval dock facilities on Hainan Island and confront India or the United States.

The private intelligence agency Stratfor has concluded that by 2015 China will have two aircraft carriers – one Chinese and one Russian, but refitted by China – and two to four nuclear submarines. But China faces immense challenges in building these. Without outside help, their reliability and effectiveness are in doubt.

India’s naval expansion is not far behind. It is adding six conventional submarines from France and 33 other ships in the next five years. In addition, one or two nuclear submarines plus an aircraft carrier of Indian design and a refitted Russian one should be ready in the next two and eight years respectively.
Overall, India currently operates 134 ships, 16 submarines and two, possibly three aircraft carriers. Indian submarines are relatively modern. The French Scorpene submarines are stealth and independent propulsion and can stay under water for long periods. The nuclear submarines will carry 700-kilometer-range missiles.

One Indian nuclear submarine with its indigenous missile system is in the final phase of construction. If the Chinese position a nuclear submarine off the coast of India, the Indians can send their own nuclear submarine into position off the southern coast of China. This tit-for-tat deployment will deny China the advantage.

India’s destroyers and frigates are equipped with longer-range supersonic Brahmos missiles and carry Barak-1 anti-missile defense systems. Its aircraft carrier is presently equipped with Sea Harrier jump jets, but these will be replaced with highly lethal naval version MIG-29Ks. The newer aircraft carriers will have more advanced weapons and aircraft.

It is the Indian P-8s, the newly ordered surveillance and submarine hunter-killer planes, that are a force to reckon with. They can pick out a submarine hundreds of miles from Indian shores and “kill” it with Harpoon missiles. Add to this the shore-based defense network and the enemy will have no place to hide or get away.

In addition, India’s network-centric battlefield interconnectivity has greatly enhanced the navy’s reach. It is a strategic force multiplier. Its availability to any navy enhances the entire spectrum of management including diplomacy, humanitarian assistance, strategic deterrence, trade and commerce and security.

India made its first inroads into network-centric warfare immediately after the Kargil War of 1999. The United States is the leader in this new concept but India, with its vast software development capability, is not far behind. At the moment the Indian navy is just about network enabled and is moving progressively toward the network-centric concept. A huge software and hardware development effort is underway.

Also India’s newly constructed Kadamba naval base matches China’s newly built facility on Hainan Island. When completed, it will be a naval base, air force station and naval armament depot with long-range missile silos. It is a US$8 billion facility, the third in a series of integrated navy bases on the country’s east and west coasts. Kadamba will berth 42 ships, including aircraft carriers and submarines. It will repair and refit all navy ships and naval planes. It is a giant base with easy access to the Indian Ocean.

Hence, by 2015 India will have a formidable naval defense. Most of the Indian hardware has been built with outside help and is highly sophisticated, outclassing China-built hardware.

Therefore, a smaller but deadlier force is what China will face in the Indian Ocean. There is one wild card however – Pakistan, which could take advantage of India’s preoccupation with the Malacca Strait to gain mileage for its own strategic aims.

In short, nobody can say that China’s navy 10 years hence will be a pussycat. But in the Indian Ocean, China will face a much bigger challenge than it anticipated.

China's vulnerability in Malacca Strait - upiasia.com


Comments pls.
 
China is trying to get control of indian ocean.


we need carriers.........fast..
 
China is trying to get control of indian ocean.


we need carriers.........fast..

That can never happen, given the geographical edge IN has in the Indian ocean. Chinese can operate a couple of bases in south east Asia, or even make a couple of major bases, but in event of a war, IN will move in to cut supplies, and Chinese reinforcement are going to take nearly a month to arrive. Think about it!
 
That can never happen, given the geographical edge IN has in the Indian ocean. Chinese can operate a couple of bases in south east Asia, or even make a couple of major bases, but in event of a war, IN will move in to cut supplies, and Chinese reinforcement are going to take nearly a month to arrive. Think about it!

but thats not what i read in the papres...... just the opposite
 
Comments?

Mr. Hari Sud is a joker in upiasia.com, as I've come across number of his articles.

If Indian strategists feel injected with ecstasies by him or his clownish imaginations, the reappearance of 1962 is for sure, and for worse.
 
China is trying to get control of indian ocean.


we need carriers.........fast..

Carriers won't counter their Sub fleet which seems to be the main threat, that's why we need more and better subs! Hope they leas the Akula as soon as possible and maybe try to get another one.
 
Comments?

Mr. Hari Sud is a joker in upiasia.com, as I've come across number of his articles.

If Indian strategists feel injected with ecstasies by him or his clownish imaginations, the reappearance of 1962 is for sure, and for worse.

I've no idea about hari Sood and his credibility. Artical sounds intresting.

Can you explain how this discussion is linked to 1962, no one is talking about war?
 
I've no idea about hari Sood and his credibility. Artical sounds intresting.

Can you explain how this discussion is linked to 1962, no one is talking about war?

Every paragraph of this article by Mr. Sud is belligerent and is war oriented.

Were it not for war, tell us why the hell would India want to block the Strait against China’s oil?

1962 can be viewed as a tragedy caused by an overly but falsely confident leader surrounded by a bunch of chest-beating trumpeters and empty-promise makers who lack basic analyzing capabilities and had no knowledge of their adversaries but fooled by false western propaganda and their laughable imaginations, the kind of imaginations that Mr. Sud has demonstrated through out his many articles.


Of course, it doesn’t rule out that, in peacetime, his articles can cause some sensation among certain people and make some living out of it for himself…
 
We may not get Russian made AC , Russians keep increase the price and now nobody is sure if India wants to spend that much for a "refurbished" one.Scorpion submarine deal suffering by delays and nobody know when all of them going to be inducted :) . Brahmas failed by a suspected "American Switching off GPS" ,Russian GPS nowhere near by. Submarine hunter by American - Come on its American they will even form alliance with China like 1971 . They would most probably stop technical support for these plans during war :)
"network-centric battlefield" Another DRDO promise , And our vast IT industry to crack Chinese!!! Its a blunder we were begging Americans to get transcript of satellite phone conversation after Mumbai attacks...
Hehe Its a waste article...
 
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1962 can be viewed as a tragedy caused by an overly but falsely confident leader surrounded by a bunch of chest-beating trumpeters and empty-promise makers who lack basic analyzing capabilities and had no knowledge of their adversaries but fooled by false western propaganda and their laughable imaginations,
Or maybe, '62 can be viewed as a tragedy caused by a Chinese leader who wanted to humiliate India and specifically Nehru on the global stage because of the attention Nehru was getting as a leader of the third world.

A coin has 2 sides.
 
China's vulnerability in Malacca Strait
1.
India has U.S.-made submarine hunter-killer planes – Boeing P-8s equipped with Harpoon missiles – one Russian and one Indian-made aircraft carrier, French Scorpene attack submarines and an Indian-built nuclear submarine with missiles reaching hundreds of miles. It can arm its Russian and Indian-made destroyers and frigates with Brahmos sea-denial missiles, and has shore-based naval attack capability. The Chinese could not cope with this formidable force.

2.
China has launched its own “total weapons system” in its Aegis-equipped destroyers, developed from stolen and copied Russian technology to counter U.S. Aegis-class ships on Taiwan patrol duty. Its capability to launch long-range anti-aircraft missiles and sea surveillance is noteworthy, but how closely the Chinese copy resembles the original is unknown.


If this is from Indian media/author, your media is indeed free, free to say whatever you want without getting basic facts right.

1. Everything mentioned about PLAN are already in their inventory for years, and where are those:

"one Russian and one Indian-made aircraft carrier, French Scorpene attack submarines and an Indian-built nuclear submarine with missiles reaching hundreds of miles. It can arm its Russian and Indian-made destroyers and frigates with Brahmos sea-denial missiles"?

Are they in Indian inventory or just on paper?

2. As far as I know, Russia does not possess any “total weapons system” or "Aegis-class destroyers", where the hell did Chinese steal or copy this technology from Russia. Just because Chinese developed something hi-tech out of their own that Indian can not, all of the sudden, those technology become stolen or copied?

After all, the whole article is trying to compare Indian navy in 2015 to PLAN in 2009, sometimes it is ok to be nationalistic, but this is way over the line.
 
Or maybe, '62 can be viewed as a tragedy caused by a Chinese leader who wanted to humiliate India and specifically Nehru on the global stage because of the attention Nehru was getting as a leader of the third world.

A coin has 2 sides.

The more I study 1962, the more I feel, among others, that those who surrounding Nehru were actually doing something against his will.

I guess Nehru was trying hard not to provoke China, at least he deemed so. But Nehru’s subordinators wanted to push for conflict, perhaps for their own vested interest.

Hope this won't happen to Malacca Strait.
 
The more I study 1962, the more I feel, among others, that those who surrounding Nehru were actually doing something against his will.

I guess Nehru was trying hard not to provoke China, at least he deemed so. But Nehru’s subordinators wanted to push for conflict, perhaps for their own vested interest.

Hope this won't happen to Malacca Strait.

Nehru had complete faith in China. Do you that Nehru wanted an alliance of India and China. Not military, but political. He was against the Military. He wanted it disbanded completely. He wanted to turn the ordinance factories to washing machine producing units!
There were allegations against his govt that in case of a war with Pakistan-India would have to depend on China for arms as he was simply not spending any money on the Military. Imagine the irony.

He was a pacifist-a fool who wanted to do good, but was out of tune with reality.
 

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