China’s Submarine Fleet, Evolution & news

[S10]

They will face a drastic escalation as it is well known that only the US military has substantial capability to attack or ambush China forces or commercial shipping. That's why China is expanding its nuclear arsenal to such a scale that the Americans won't have any chance to think about an ambush.

I think Americans will have made their mind up about going to war with China the moment they militarily intervene. It will be a calculated decision. Hoping Americans won't consider escalation with attacking Chinese military targets is naive.

 

[Shotgunner51]

American subs can launch cruise missiles towards China or anti-ship missiles towards the landing fleet. More importantly, they can ambush Chinese shipping lanes in South China Sea or Malacca strait. While American surface vessels could be kept at bay with DF-21D, DF-17 and H-6K, their SSNs are much more difficult to deter.

Never underestimate or discount your opponent. Russia is paying a high price for doing so at this very moment.

No, they can't interfere with Taiwan in any conventional way including use of LACM or AShM from SSN/SSGN's, distance do not allow, their subs will stay far away from Guanlan + Y-9ASW, SSK039 + 056A/927/HSU001 + CH6, i.e. >2000km from shore. Surface vessels are equally if not even more vulnerable to land-based weapons, Russia has already paid a high price for doing so.

The only way for US subs to interfere with Taiwan is strategic showdown, aka (1) launch Trident ICBM and escalate to WWIII (2) Naval blockade at Malacca Strait or IOR or Suez Canal or other and escalate to WWIII. Never underestimate or discount of your opponent's will to go full-scale nuclear Armageddon, nor ours.

 

[S10]

No, they can't interfere with Taiwan in any conventional way including use of LACM or AShM from SSN/SSGN's, distance do not allow, their subs will stay far away from Guanlan + Y-9ASW, SSK039 + 056A/927/HSU001 + CH6, i.e. >2000km from shore. Surface vessels are equally if not even more vulnerable to land-based weapons, Russia has already paid a high price for doing so.

The only way for US subs to interfere with Taiwan is strategic showdown, aka (1) launch Trident ICBM and escalate to WWIII (2) Naval blockade at Malacca Strait or IOR or Suez Canal or other and escalate to WWIII. Never underestimate or discount of your opponent's will to go full-scale nuclear Armageddon, nor ours.

And Russia was supposed to have eliminated the Ukrainian air and naval capabilities in the first week of war. How did that go? In case of American intervention, losses will inevitably be high and operations significantly hindered.

You are extremely confident of China's ability to find and deter American subs, when China's ASW capability was PLAN's weakest link just 5 years ago. Your ASW assets are not going to be able to provide proper coverage when the sea and air are contested. Americans operate the quietest and most capable nuclear subs in the world, and you act like there is some magical shield that prevents them from entering 2000km within Chinese coast that works 100% of the time.

If that's not unrealistic optimism, I don't know what is.

 

[Shotgunner51]

And Russia was supposed to have eliminated the Ukrainian air and naval capabilities in the first week of war. How did that go? In case of American intervention, losses will inevitably be high and operations significantly hindered.

You are extremely confident of China's ability to find and deter American subs, when China's ASW capability was PLAN's weakest link just 5 years ago. Your ASW assets are not going to be able to provide proper coverage when the sea and air are contested. Americans operate the quietest and most capable nuclear subs in the world, and you act like there is some magical shield that prevents them from entering 2000km within Chinese coast that works 100% of the time.

If that's not unrealistic optimism, I don't know what is.

You just answered your question: Russia paid an hefty price by staying too close to the shore, didn't they? Even when they are supposed to have eliminated the Ukrainian naval capabilities in the first week of war, their own navy get wack near the coast.

You are extremely confident of US ability to operate subs within 2000km from China's shore, when China's land-based ASW capability isn't like 5 years ago. Your "quiestest" subs are not going to be able to operate freely when the sea and air near the coast are contested, and you act like there is some magic wand US subs can wave that guarantees 100% safe from "undersea mountain" near Chinese coast.

If that's not unrealistic optimism, I don't know what is.

 

[siegecrossbow]

You just answered your question: Russia paid an hefty price by staying too close to the shore, didn't they? Even when they are supposed to have eliminated the Ukrainian naval capabilities in the first week of war, their own navy get wack near the coast.

You are extremely confident of US ability to operate subs within 2000km from China's shore, when China's land-based ASW capability isn't like 5 years ago. Your "quiestest" subs are not going to be able to operate freely when the sea and air near the coast are contested, and you act like there is some magic wand US subs can wave that guarantees 100% safe from "undersea mountain" near Chinese coast.

If that's not unrealistic optimism, I don't know what is.

I think this is a tad too optimistic. Up until the last decade China didn’t start mapping out undersea features of South/East China sea yet. Such efforts usually take a long time.

 

[MajesticPug]

No, they can't interfere with Taiwan in any conventional way including use of LACM or AShM from SSN/SSGN's, distance do not allow, their subs will stay far away from Guanlan + Y-9ASW, SSK039 + 056A/927/HSU001 + CH6, i.e. >2000km from shore. Surface vessels are equally if not even more vulnerable to land-based weapons, Russia has already paid a high price for doing so.

The only way for US subs to interfere with Taiwan is strategic showdown, aka (1) launch Trident ICBM and escalate to WWIII (2) Naval blockade at Malacca Strait or IOR or Suez Canal or other and escalate to WWIII. Never underestimate or discount of your opponent's will to go full-scale nuclear Armageddon, nor ours.

S10 said in 'SCS' and you answered scenarios in TW Strait. You're way too 'optimistic' on China's ASW abilities. Launching missiles from Mainland China and hoping they will hit a sub is like hoping a dollar lottery ticket will win you the jackpot. Americans will not engage China in the TW Strait (period)

 

[S10]

You just answered your question: Russia paid an hefty price by staying too close to the shore, didn't they? Even when they are supposed to have eliminated the Ukrainian naval capabilities in the first week of war, their own navy get wack near the coast.

You are extremely confident of US ability to operate subs within 2000km from China's shore, when China's land-based ASW capability isn't like 5 years ago. Your "quiestest" subs are not going to be able to operate freely when the sea and air near the coast are contested, and you act like there is some magic wand US subs can wave that guarantees 100% safe from "undersea mountain" near Chinese coast.

If that's not unrealistic optimism, I don't know what is.

Yeah real mature answer.

US deployed 2/3 of its navy in the Pacific region, which means majority of its submarines will be there too. Even the oldest 688i Los Angeles class can give 093A a run for its money, not to mention completely outclassing 039A/B/C in speed, diving depth, armament. Americans hold a definitive numerical and technological edge in this regard. You're under the assumption that Americans subs will be 100% intercepted by China's ASW within 2000km of China's coast, which not even USN in its wildest dreams can monitor that massive of an area constantly. I was being nice by calling you overly optimistic. It's straight up a pipe dream. Having a few new toys doesn't give you ASW superpowers in a few years. These things take decades and still nothing is guaranteed in war.

China has some advantages near its shores, but acting like anything within 2000km of China is untouchable by US is simply silly.

 

[Luosifen]

Taiwan Strait is too shallow to hide SSNs, especially after a noisy launch of torpedoes/missiles. What USN subs can do is launch at PLAN ships in blockade positions on the Eastern side of Taiwan where the waters are deeper and USAF/USN aviation can provide better cover to keep ASW patrol planes at bay.

 

[Oldman1]

Taiwan Strait is too shallow to hide SSNs, especially after a noisy launch of torpedoes/missiles. What USN subs can do is launch at PLAN ships in blockade positions on the Eastern side of Taiwan where the waters are deeper and USAF/USN aviation can provide better cover to keep ASW patrol planes at bay.

At least someone here can read a map and see how it could work.

 

[MajesticPug]

Taiwan Strait is too shallow to hide SSNs, especially after a noisy launch of torpedoes/missiles. What USN subs can do is launch at PLAN ships in blockade positions on the Eastern side of Taiwan where the waters are deeper and USAF/USN aviation can provide better cover to keep ASW patrol planes at bay.

The surface vessels will be attacked by DF missiles and destroyed or driven away so ASW can be launched. The American DOD ran dozens of war games against China and none gave them a positive result. What you proposed is nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[Luosifen]

The surface vessels will be attacked by DF missiles and destroyed or driven away so ASW can be launched. The American DOD ran dozens of war games against China and none gave them a positive result. What you proposed is nothing out of the ordinary.

I don't doubt the PLARF be able to inflict heavy losses on USN surface fleet within range, but the USN sub fleet is capable of inflicting casualties on the PLAN in the contested waters east of the island. The ASW aircraft like the Y-8 would be juicy targets for F-22 and F-35s operating with refueling support until their bases are knocked out or J-20s can shoot down their tankers. The wargames indicated that Taiwan could not be defended (and Taiwan was always expendable as Ukraine is), but if the US goal is to degrade PLA combat strength by sniping from a distance this is doable. Whether the USA can bear the political consequences to get involved is an entirely different matter.

Getting back on track though, the best way to counter the USN sub fleet is to have your own sub fleet to match them, of course we won't know how well the type 095 SSNs will close the gap qualitatively with current USN boats, but I don't doubt China's ability to outbuild and eventually outnumber them such that the USN will have to posture more defensively in the coming years as PLAN SSNs patrol near US West Coast in the coming years.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Yeah real mature answer.

US deployed 2/3 of its navy in the Pacific region, which means majority of its submarines will be there too. Even the oldest 688i Los Angeles class can give 093A a run for its money, not to mention completely outclassing 039A/B/C in speed, diving depth, armament. Americans hold a definitive numerical and technological edge in this regard. You're under the assumption that Americans subs will be 100% intercepted by China's ASW within 2000km of China's coast, which not even USN in its wildest dreams can monitor that massive of an area constantly. I was being nice by calling you overly optimistic. It's straight up a pipe dream. Having a few new toys doesn't give you ASW superpowers in a few years. These things take decades and still nothing is guaranteed in war.

China has some advantages near its shores, but acting like anything within 2000km of China is untouchable by US is simply silly.

It's childish if not silly to assume ASW is sub vs sub like it's a boxing game, especially near shores.

That's why I didn't even bother to bring 093/095 (which are SSN) into the picture of hunting down your subs near our shores, cos it's called littoral warfare, a term perhaps alien to armchair generals. There is no diving depth for you cos waters are shallow, if you try to speed up you loose quietness, not to mention it will be your pipe dream to outrun even the slowest warplanes (Y-9ASW) or UAV (CH-6) above you. Better stay stealth cos that's what subs do best, wait for Guanland Marine Guard, 056A or 927 to pick you up.

Good that you know we have "some" advantages near our shores, we cannot 100% guarantee giving you another "undersea mountain" moment but neither you can guarantee your own safety. Acting like your subs will be perfectly safe to interfere with Taiwan is dark homor, welcome to try.

 

[MajesticPug]

I don't doubt the PLARF be able to inflict heavy losses on USN surface fleet within range, but the USN sub fleet is capable of inflicting casualties on the PLAN in the contested waters east of the island. The ASW aircraft like the Y-8 would be juicy targets for F-22 and F-35s operating with refueling support until their bases are knocked out or J-20s can shoot down their tankers. The wargames indicated that Taiwan could not be defended (and Taiwan was always expendable as Ukraine is), but if the US goal is to degrade PLA combat strength by sniping from a distance this is doable. Whether the USA can bear the political consequences to get involved is an entirely different matter.

Getting back on track though, the best way to counter the USN sub fleet is to have your own sub fleet to match them, of course we won't know how well the type 095 SSNs will close the gap qualitatively with current USN boats, but I don't doubt China's ability to outbuild and eventually outnumber them such that the USN will have to posture more defensively in the coming years as PLAN SSNs patrol near US West Coast in the coming years.

I don't doubt the importance of building more capable subs. In fact, I believe it's the number 1 priority fo PLAN, highly over the attention-grabbing aircraft carriers. What I described was the tactics that PLA can do given the current PLAN strength and over the TW conflict. It's not surprising the US will try to lure PLA to fight far away from its land-based missile supports, and PLA tries to keep the conflict as close to the mainland as possible. Beijing planners know full well ultimately there'll be fights deep and far away from its mainland. Subs, 055, and carriers will have to carry the burden of winning these battles.

 

[LKJ86]

Via http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2022-04/23/content_10149627.htm

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Yeah real mature answer.

US deployed 2/3 of its navy in the Pacific region, which means majority of its submarines will be there too. Even the oldest 688i Los Angeles class can give 093A a run for its money, not to mention completely outclassing 039A/B/C in speed, diving depth, armament. Americans hold a definitive numerical and technological edge in this regard. You're under the assumption that Americans subs will be 100% intercepted by China's ASW within 2000km of China's coast, which not even USN in its wildest dreams can monitor that massive of an area constantly. I was being nice by calling you overly optimistic. It's straight up a pipe dream. Having a few new toys doesn't give you ASW superpowers in a few years. These things take decades and still nothing is guaranteed in war.

China has some advantages near its shores, but acting like anything within 2000km of China is untouchable by US is simply silly.

When all the surface vessels of the USN are gone, do you think their subs alone can withstand all the bombardment from the sky?

The modern drones with strong ASW ability with AI will be the worst nightmare even for the most silent nuclear subs.

The LA class are all close to the age of retirement, and the metal structure of the hull cannot hold any longer when its lifespan is close to the end, and no way it can beat the most recent nuclear subs built by China.

Heck, the USN even treats its elite nuclear sub the Seawolf class like cr@p, and if they would ever try to use the older LA class to poke China, it will turn out to be an even bigger embarrassment for them.