China’s population up less than half a million in 2021, births plunge again as crisis deepens

[Mista]

‘Shocking’ fall in China’s national growth rate as population ageing intensifies

Mainland China’s population increased to 1.4126 billion last year, while Chinese mothers gave birth to 10.62 million babies, marking an 11.5 per cent decline from 2020, data released on Monday showed.

www.scmp.com

Mainland China’s population increased by less than half a million last year, and the number of births also dropped for the fifth consecutive year in 2021, data released on Monday showed.

China’s overall population increased by about 480,000 people – to 1.4126 billion in 2021, from 1.412 billion a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed. The population includes China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as servicemen, but excludes foreigners. It does not include Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan.

Chinese mothers gave birth to 10.62 million babies last year, an 11.5 per cent drop from 12 million in 2020, the NBS confirmed. The national birth rate fell to a record low of 7.52 births for every 1,000 people in 2021, from 8.52 in 2020.

The national death rate was 7.18 per thousand last year, putting the national growth rate at 0.34 per thousand.

“The most shocking part of the data release today is that the natural growth of the population has dropped to 0.34 per thousand, the first time below 1.0 since data become available,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The demographic challenge is well known, but the speed of population ageing is clearly faster than expected.

“This suggests China’s total population may have reached its peak in 2020. It also indicates China’s potential growth is likely slowing faster than expected.”

Chen Wei, a professor with the Population Development Studies Centre at Renmin University, said: “In the next 10 to 20 years, China’s natural population growth will not continue to decline, but will fluctuate around zero and see small drops, but there will not be rapid decreases.”

Earlier this month, Henan province, the country’s third-most-populous administrative region, reported that its number of newborns fell to 920,000 in 2020 – a 23.3 per cent decline from 2019 – as the provincial birth rate dropped to 9.24 births per 1,000 people.

“The pandemic has caused some people to lose their jobs or suffer pay cuts,” said He Yafu, an independent demographer. “A decrease in household income, in addition to the uncertainties that the pandemic has added to the future, further lowered young people’s willingness to give birth.”

Experts have warned that a demographic turning point may be just around the corner in the world’s most populous nation, and some say it threatens to erode the foundation of China’s booming economic growth over the past 40 years.

Beijing has already taken steps to curb the trend, such as by allowing couples to have a third child and by trying to reduce abortions for “non-medical” purposes.

Dozens of provincial and municipal authorities have also introduced their own initiatives to bump up fertility. These include giving parents more days off work, or even financial support, for having a second or third child.

“China’s total population will remain above 1.4 billion for a period of time to come,” said Ning Jizhe, deputy head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the nation’s top economic planner. He added that the three-child policy is expected to gradually add births, while the national life expectancy is gradually increasing.

Additional demographic figures released on Monday include a year-on-year increase of 12.05 million permanent residents in urban areas, to 914.25 million. Meanwhile, there was a 11.57 million decrease in rural permanent residents, to 498.35 million.

“The share of urban population in the total population (urbanisation rate) was 64.72 per cent – 0.83 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year,” the NBS statement said.

China’s so-called “floating population”, featuring mostly migrant workers, reached 384.67 million in 2021, 8.85 million more than in 2020. And the population living in areas other than where they hold household registration, for at least six months, reached 504.29 million, or 11.53 million more than in 2020.

 

[Beidou2020]

Crisis my arse.

 

[Mista]

 

[FuturePAF]

Crisis my arse.

More incentive to build more robots. There is a lot of room to catch up with Japan and then South Korea.

 

[lcloo]

AI is already fast replacing human workers, this is Shanghai Children's hospital with minimum health workers. AI is aready doing most of the works.

This is just one example of human workers being replaced by AI and robots in China.

How Advanced are Hospitals in China? | Life of Indian family in China| Hospital in Shanghai - YouTube

 

[Mista]

What's behind China's population entering the zero growth zone?

While the total fertility rate (number of births per woman) dropped in China, it is not so surprising to demographers.

news.cgtn.com

What's behind China's population entering the zero growth zone?

Editor's note: Chen Wei is a professor at the Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China recorded 10.62 million births in 2021, posting a drop of 11.5 percent, or 1.4 million, from 12 million in 2020. The national birth rate fell to a record low of 7.52 births per thousand in 2021 from 8.52 in 2020.

While the number of deaths is increasing due to faster population aging, the national death rate was 7.18 per thousand in 2021, putting the natural population growth rate at 0.34 per thousand. When population growth rate drops to below 0.5 per thousand, it is defined as zero growth zone, thus this is a great turning point in Chinese history that China's population growth came to a stop, entering into a new stage of long-term decline.

Over the last five years, number of births in China has been rapidly declining, from a high of 18.83 million in 2016 to 17.65 million in 2017, 15.23 million in 2018, 14.65 million in 2019, 12 million in 2020 and 10.62 million in 2021, with an average annual reduction of 1.64 million.

The total fertility rate (number of births per woman) dropped from 1.77 in 2016 to 1.15 last year, making China one of the countries with the lowest fertility rate. While the results are alarming to many, they are not so surprising to demographers.

We need to understand population patterns and trends from a long-term perspective. Large drops in birth and fertility rates in the past five years (which are projected to continue in the next five years or so) are just a duplication of a similar decline recorded in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Presently, the newborns are mainly the children of post-90s generation born 25 to 30 years ago. Since China experienced a sharp reduction in births and fertility in the 1990s, when post-90s become mothers, their children would be proportionately fewer. The number of reproductive women aged 15 to 49 declined at a rate of 8 million per year over 2016-2021. This is a major cause of the rapid reduction of births and fertility in the past five years.

At the same time, aging of population is gaining pace. China had 14.2 percent of the population over 60 years old in 2021 compared to 13.5 percent in 2020. Aging population results in more deaths, further lowering population growth.

Another important factor affecting births and fertility is marriage postponement. Unlike many Western countries where birth-marriage connection is weak and there are lots of non-marital births, there is a very strong birth-marriage connection in China and other East Asian nations. This is largely a cultural difference.

Marriage delays necessarily lead to birth delays in China. A national fertility survey in 2017 suggests that first marriage rate dropped from over 0.9 before 2012 to 0.6 in 2017, leading to very low-level first birth rate. The mean age at first marriage of Chinese women rose from 23.5 in 2006 to 26.5 in 2016, a much faster pace of increase than previous decades.

Compared to many European countries, Japan and South Korea, women in China are still getting married at a young age. A larger increase of marriage age in China is expected, which will further lower fertility in the next decade.

Detrimental to the low fertility question is the relatively low fertility desire in China. Low fertility countries typically show a not very low fertility desire, and the desired number of children is around 2.1 to 2.5. For example, the number is 2.42 in France and Sweden, 2.37 in the UK, 3.59 in the United States, and 2.5 in Japan. But in China, according to various data sources, the number is around 1.85, the lowest in the world.

The social and economic changes determine fertility patterns and trends in China. China's per capita GDP has doubled over the past decade, now exceeding $12,500. More important is the expansion of higher education enrollment,the rate of which is over 50 percent, and females enjoy a larger proportion than males in all levels of higher education.

China had 64 percent of urban population by 2020, with an increase of 14 percentage points in the past decade. There is also an intensifying trend of migration to cities and provinces in east China. Parallel to these changes are the high costs of child rearing, including living, education and housing.

Finally, there is the impact of COVID-19 on fertility. Life and fertility planning have to change because of insecure job opportunities, declining income and inaccessible reproductive health services during COVID-19. A study in China shows that November and December 2020 saw a 30-percent reduction in births. The global impact of COVID-19 on fertility and population are yet to be further manifested in the years to come.

 

[aziqbal]

Crisis my arse.

Now I can see why you have received 48 x negative ratings

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Nothing we can do about it. No amount of immigration or conquest can solve it. There's no solution to this problem. China will probably stabilize around 1.0-1.2 billion at the end of the century. Hopefully by then we will have sufficiently advanced technology where full employment is optional.

In another light, shutting down for profit tutoring is correct, otherwise changing demographics will render that entire sector a bubble. Many schools will close and teachers will need to find new jobs.

 

[letsrock]

China achieved this a tad too soon. 1.15 fertility at $40,000 per capita income is different from 1.15 fertiltiy at 12k per capita. Lets see if they can reverse a bit.

 

[Mista]

China will probably stabilize around 1.0-1.2 billion at the end of the century.

For China's population to stabilize, she will need a TFR closer to 2.1. China's TFR was 1.15 last year, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term as China continues to urbanize, woman getting more educated and marrying later.

The total fertility rate (number of births per woman) dropped from 1.77 in 2016 to 1.15 last year, making China one of the countries with the lowest fertility rate. While the results are alarming to many, they are not so surprising to demographers.

Compared to many European countries, Japan and South Korea, women in China are still getting married at a young age. A larger increase of marriage age in China is expected, which will further lower fertility in the next decade.

China had 64 percent of urban population by 2020, with an increase of 14 percentage points in the past decade. There is also an intensifying trend of migration to cities and provinces in east China. Parallel to these changes are the high costs of child rearing, including living, education and housing.

A forecast previously published in The Lancet estimated if China can maintain her TFR at around 1.47, her population will fall to around 700mil+ at the end of the century.

Large population decline expected in China and India

But most African nations will continue to experience population growth to 2100 and beyond.

www.weforum.org

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social...

www.thelancet.com

 

[MH.Yang]

Our population base is too large, so the absolute value of our population fluctuation is also very large. It's not enough to absorb immigrants from the surrounding small countries, they don't have enough ability to help us. And the only neighbors with sufficient population, they are too dirty and smelly. We don't want them.
We can only rely on ourselves, we need more fertility stimulus policies.

 

[Type59]

Only around a billion people at beginning of 20th century (I can't be bothered looking stats up). My point is no one was complaining about lack of people, now global is close to 8 billion and some people are worried

 

[northeast]

Our population base is too large, so the absolute value of our population fluctuation is also very large. It's not enough to absorb immigrants from the surrounding small countries, they don't have enough ability to help us. And the only neighbors with sufficient population, they are too dirty and smelly. We don't want them.
We can only rely on ourselves, we need more fertility stimulus policies.

Africa has 1 billion people,bring them all to china.There will be another 1 billion african be born in two decades.

 

[Tshering22]

Africa has 1 billion people,bring them all to china.There will be another 1 billion african be born in two decades.

Isn't that a bad idea given the gender imbalance you have? the reason why people are not having kids these days is because of the costs of living. When housing is so expensive as it is in some of your highest job-generating cities, then how will people afford to bring more people into the world?

I was watching a documentary about the prices of properties in Shenzhen. It is insane!

 

[northeast]

Isn't that a bad idea given the gender imbalance you have? the reason why people are not having kids these days is because of the costs of living. When housing is so expensive as it is in some of your highest job-generating cities, then how will people afford to bring more people into the world?

I was watching a documentary about the prices of properties in Shenzhen. It is insane!

I am just joking,lol.china can't rely on immigrants. They will destroy this country,the more the faster.