China's economy may grow to 15 times that of S. Korea by 2030: World Bank

[beijingwalker]

China's economy may grow to 15 times that of S. Korea by 2030: World Bank
By Kim Young-gyo

Feb. 27 (Yonhap) -- China's economy may grow to 15 times the current size of the South Korean economy by 2030, the World Bank said Monday, indicating the world's No. 2 economy will continue to grow steadily.

"China has already achieved upper middle income status. If the country reaches US$16,000 of income per person by 2030, up from today's approximately $5,000, then China will have an economy equivalent to adding 15 of today's South Koreas," said Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank Group.

Zoellick was in Beijing on Monday to release the World Bank's latest China 2030 report, which proposed a new development strategy for China over the next two decades, the global lender said on its official Web site.

The World Bank stressed that China should complete its transition to a market economy.

"Currently, China relies on a mix of market and non-market measures to shape incentives for producers and consumers, and there is a lack of clarity in distinguishing the roles of government, state enterprise, and the private sector. China needs to resolve these issues," Zoellick said.

"The Chinese economy of the future needs to rely more on markets and the private sector."

The bank also urged China, as an international stakeholder, to further integrate with global markets.

"China is already a key stakeholder in the world economy -- though perhaps one that is still assessing how to combine its development needs with its international responsibilities," the president said.

"Moving forward, China should be a key partner for global solutions in areas such as international development, open trade, global financial stability, open investment, energy and commodities and the environment."

 

[northeast]

I think 2020 is enough.
World bank is american lapdog,always underestimate china.

 

[beijingwalker]

China will have an economy equivalent to adding 15 of today's South Koreas," said Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank Group.

so each year's growth is like adding 2 S.Koreas.

 

[scholseys]

every week these big *** predictions are quite tedious.....there are also predictions that the world's economy might collapse.

 

[JayAtl]

Hard Landing of Chinese Banks on Horizon


The Chinese banking sector is often thought to be among the wealthiest in the world. A number of experts, however, disagree, pointing to how the Chinese lending sector is on the edge of bankruptcy—there are large numbers of non-performing loans, and defaults are expected.

“Others are concerned that many of China’s banks may be insolvent and that China may experience a financial crisis. According to these commentators, efforts to resolve a serious accumulation of non-performing loans (NPLs) only disguised the problem,” stated a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, released on Feb. 20. The CRS is part of the Library of Congress and provides policy and legal analysis for the U.S. Congress.

Additionally, credit analysts are concerned that the Chinese regime’s 2008 stimulus program may have aggravated Chinese banks’ NPL situation, given that local Chinese administration debt jumped by a ballpark figure of around $1.7 trillion, according to the CRS.

During the fourth quarter in 2011, Chinese banks’ non-performing loans increased to $3.19 billion, a 4.9 percent increase from the third quarter 2011. A China.org article claims that by the end of 2012, non-performing loans could conceivably increase between 10 and 15 percent.

“The amount of non-performing loans among Chinese lenders will continue to rise in 2012 after picking up in the fourth quarter [of 2011],” according to a March 2 article on the China.org.cn website.


Loan defaults in China have been on the rise and may increase by 26 percent this year, according to an article on the Quamnet website.

“Banks have been asked to roll over loans to local government financing vehicles, and have also been asked to increase their tolerance of NPLs by enterprises to shore up the economy,” according to the China.org article.

Banking sector watchdogs claim that in the near future many Chinese real estate loans will default, worsening China’s non-performing loan numbers.

“After several years of growing profitability and improved finances, China’s banks appear to be poised for a rise in NPLs, particularly if there is a sharp decline in real estate values,” according to the CRS report.

Besides real estate loans, China experts suggest that local administrations will default in droves. They don’t have the funds to repay the loans they took out over the past years, as much of the money was squandered or embezzled, according to media reports.

“As the repayment capacity of loans extended to local government investment vehicles comes under threat, we continue to expect instability in China’s banking system and a surge in non-performing loans,” according to a recent report overview of the article “China 2012—From Miracle to Meltdown” on the Companies and Markets website.

Chinese bank observers advise that “unresolved NPLs of the past, newly-emerging NPLs associated with a recent sharp rise in local administration debt, and hidden exposure to underground banking have increased the likelihood that China’s banks may experience a rise in NPLs and, in some cases, edge towards insolvency,” according to the CRS report.

Instability in the Chinese Financial Sector

“Despite the many reforms introduced so far, the Chinese financial system remains repressed, unbalanced, costly to maintain and potentially unstable,” according to the recently released 400-page World Bank Report “China 2030.”

The report suggests that China’s financial sector is constrained by state ownership and regime interference. The Chinese state uses the financial sector to enforce its policies, preventing lending institutions from becoming a true market force.

“Banks have been used as instruments of the government’s macroeconomic and sectoral policy goals and have not always been in a position to lend prudently. While this may have facilitated accomplishment of policy goals, it has also exposed banks to a greater risk of deteriorating loan portfolios,” according to the World Bank report.

Given the financial sector’s lending practices to China’s corporate sector, accounting for 90 percent of all funds borrowed by Chinese firms, the Chinese financial system is lopsided. Besides, the Chinese securities market is underdeveloped, and a Chinese firm has few options in accessing a mechanism for long-term private funding.





Without costly money injections by the Chinese regime, China’s banking sector would have collapsed, and a financial crisis similar to the 2008 economic global crisis would have ensued on Chinese soil.

What is ailing the Chinese banking sector is the absence of a strong regulatory system that could monitor, predict, and address financial risks. The Chinese regulatory environment is in its infancy and leaves the Chinese financial system in a precarious state.

“The financial system is fragile and vulnerable to potential instability,” the World Bank report states

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

why compare us with a country which has the same size with our province?

 

[beijingwalker]

every week these big *** predictions are quite tedious.....there are also predictions that the world's economy might collapse.

and China beat those stupid western predictions every single time.

why compare us with a country which has the same size with our province?

the author is a S.Korean.

 

[scholseys]

and China beat those stupid western predictions every single time.



the author is a S.Korean.

Best of luck to China. Bangladesh supports China :China:

 

[UKBengali]

LOL.

China will reach 16,000 US dollars per capita by no later than 2020.

And by 2030, the US dollar will no longer be the world's sole reserve currency.

 

[JayAtl]

LOL.

China will reach 16,000 US dollars per capita by no later than 2020.

And by 2030, the US dollar will no longer be the world's sole reserve currency.

with the kind of intellect you have shown above: No wonder you guys needed India to come give you your own flag and save your previous generation(s).

 

[UKBengali]

with the kind of intellect you have shown above: No wonder you guys needed India to come give you your own flag and save your previous generation(s).

BD has 3-4 years higher life expectancy than India.

LOL.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Has any developing country ever succeeded by listening to the great advices of the World Bank? Yes right, zero!

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Has any developing country ever succeeded by listening to the great advices of the World Bank? Yes right, zero!

The WB is always spreading the poisonous medicines, especially to the developing countries.

 

[Jade]

BD has 3-4 years higher life expectancy than India.

LOL.

India 64.7
BD 64.1

 

[somebozo]

with the kind of intellect you have shown above: No wonder you guys needed India to come give you your own flag and save your previous generation(s).

Indians these days try to be whither than white..perhaps a legacy of serving the brits for 200 years!

Has any developing country ever succeeded by listening to the great advices of the World Bank? Yes right, zero!

They actually advise to keep them away from attaing the developed status. Only execption is China because it neither listens to WB nor IMF in charting its economic policies. SO they have to cover their embarassment by coming up with rubbish predictions like China banking sector will collapse or the Chinese real estate bubble with burst soon. No wonder too many Indians working at IMF and WB.