China's economic growth speeds up?

[JayAtl]

China's economy sped up in the July-to-September quarter to expand at 7.8% year-on-year, according to official gross domestic product (GDP) figures.

Reliability factor
But, one thing that hasn't changed is that there are more questions than ever over the reliability of Chinese figures.

It's not just GDP, but the other data releases today have also come in largely as expected: industrial production rising 10.2% from a year earlier in September, retail sales up 13.3%, fixed asset investment grew by 20.2%.

I've written about the trouble with Chinese figures before, particularly when it comes to GDP.

But, how good are the three indicators reportedly espoused by China's premier Li Keqiang as being more reliable? They are gaining prominence as they are being used by banks such as Credit Suisse and JPMorgan as an alternative index for Chinese growth.

The first indicator is electricity usage. The amount of power used by households and firms is a good gauge of consumption and one that is hard to hide. One problem is that China subsidizes some prices so it's somewhat mis-measured, but it's a decent economic indicator. Credit Suisse estimates it's around 9% annualised growth.

The amount of cargo freight is the second measure. Instead of factories saying how much they've produced (recall that they have been chastised for faking figures in Yunnan and Guangdong provinces this year), it's more reliable to take a look ourselves.

Railway cargo volume shows how much has been manufactured and is being moved around the country. But it is an under-measurement of economic activity because it only captures around 40% of GDP - the biggest part of the Chinese economy now is services. Cargo freight volumes are growing at around 21%.

The final gauge is bank loans. How much households and firms borrow over the medium and long-term reflects the amount of demand in the economy for investment.

This is why it's a good indicator of economic activity. But if this is used unproductively to build ghost cities, then it's a different way of over-stating growth. These loans are growing at about 5%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24577043

 

[JayAtl]

Top Chinese Banks Post Biggest Bad-Loan Surge Since 2010
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/top-chinese-banks-post-biggest-bad-loan-surge-since-2010.html

 

[bolo]

China's economy sped up in the July-to-September quarter to expand at 7.8% year-on-year, according to official gross domestic product (GDP) figures.

Reliability factor
But, one thing that hasn't changed is that there are more questions than ever over the reliability of Chinese figures.

It's not just GDP, but the other data releases today have also come in largely as expected: industrial production rising 10.2% from a year earlier in September, retail sales up 13.3%, fixed asset investment grew by 20.2%.

I've written about the trouble with Chinese figures before, particularly when it comes to GDP.

But, how good are the three indicators reportedly espoused by China's premier Li Keqiang as being more reliable? They are gaining prominence as they are being used by banks such as Credit Suisse and JPMorgan as an alternative index for Chinese growth.

The first indicator is electricity usage. The amount of power used by households and firms is a good gauge of consumption and one that is hard to hide. One problem is that China subsidizes some prices so it's somewhat mis-measured, but it's a decent economic indicator. Credit Suisse estimates it's around 9% annualised growth.

The amount of cargo freight is the second measure. Instead of factories saying how much they've produced (recall that they have been chastised for faking figures in Yunnan and Guangdong provinces this year), it's more reliable to take a look ourselves.

Railway cargo volume shows how much has been manufactured and is being moved around the country. But it is an under-measurement of economic activity because it only captures around 40% of GDP - the biggest part of the Chinese economy now is services. Cargo freight volumes are growing at around 21%.

The final gauge is bank loans. How much households and firms borrow over the medium and long-term reflects the amount of demand in the economy for investment.

This is why it's a good indicator of economic activity. But if this is used unproductively to build ghost cities, then it's a different way of over-stating growth. These loans are growing at about 5%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24577043

Thank you for your concerns about China, but don't worry, Chinese people can endure any apocalyptic scenario given to them. You don't become the longest continuous civilization without enduring hardships.

If I were you, I would be more concern bout India, a country that have been ruled by foreigners for thousands of years.

 

[JayAtl]

Thank you for your concerns about China, but don't worry, Chinese people can endure any apocalyptic scenario given to them. You don't become the longest continuous civilization without enduring hardships.

If I were you, I would be more concern bout India, a country that have been ruled by foreigners for thousands of years.

But you are still ruled , born into servitude to the CCP all circa 1 billion plus of you.