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Any country dealing with China should be aware, before making any move, that China may well have a countermove planned one that may be surprising in its scope and its depth.
Chinese officials have certainly been busy.
Last month, China rejected a Philippine request for arbitration of their maritime dispute, sent planes into airspace near islands disputed with Japan, and dispatched troops across the line of actual control with India, where the soldiers pitched tents in Indian-held territory.
Behold the new New China confident, assertive and flexible when necessary.
In the disputes with Manila and Tokyo, China seems unbending in insisting on a new status quo.
The conflict with India, however, has been handled pragmatically.
In fact, a pattern of Chinese behavior is emerging.
In the Senkaku islands or Diaoyu islands dispute, the Chinese said that Japan had upset the status quo by buying three of the islands from their private Japanese owner.
China then rolled out what were clearly long-conceived plans, including conducting sea and air patrols and depositing with the United Nations an illustrative chart as well as the coordinates of straight baselines of its claims.
In the dispute with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese point out that Manila had sent a naval vessel to the vicinity in an attempt to detain Chinese fishermen. It was only then that Chinese patrol ships intervened.
The Chinese, it seemed, were only responding to a move initiated by the Philippines. But now the Chinese are in control of the area and have roped off the entrance to the shoal, barring Filipino fishermen.
Evidently, China had long prepared its case against the Philippines. Moreover, it was prepared to widen the scope of the dispute if Manila sought arbitration.
Similarly, in the latest incident involving India, Chinese military personnel, meeting with their Indian counterparts, suggested that China's crossing of the line of actual control had been triggered by India's reinforcing of its side of the line in Ladakh with bunkers. The Chinese asked India to remove the bunkers.
In addition, the Chinese have asked India to dismantle its forward observation post at Chumar, evidently because it overlooks Chinese highways and can detect troop movements there.
It was reported last June that Indian soldiers had intercepted two Chinese who attempted to cut the wires of Indian surveillance cameras at the Chumar post.
The Indians say that China has strengthened its border infrastructure all along the 4,000-kilometer line for decades while India did little or nothing. It is only in recent years that India has moved to strengthen its border infrastructure.
Of course, in a dispute that goes back for more than half a century, it is difficult to say which side took the first step and which side was simply responding.
India has been trying to reverse its military weakening in the face of a Chinese buildup of infrastructure. China evidently wants to ensure that it retains the upper hand in any future confrontation with India by insisting that India dismantle whatever it has put up.
Now, the two sides have agreed to end the deadlock and to withdraw their soldiers to the positions they occupied on April 15.
That was the date when China reportedly made a deep incursion into Indian-held territory.
On the face of it, the Chinese, by agreeing to a troop withdrawal, have made a concession. Previously they had insisted that their soldiers were on the Chinese side of the line of actual control.
However, it is not known what concessions the Indian side made, such as agreeing to demolish bunkers, or even to dismantle the Chumar observation post.
In all probability, the two sides reached this agreement to make it possible for Premier Li Keqiang's scheduled visit to India on May 20 to go ahead. If the border issue had not been resolved, the trip to Beijing this week by External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid to make preparations for the Li visit may have been in jeopardy.
The Li visit itself is significant, since it is the new premier's first overseas trip. Whether Chinese-Indian differences have only been papered over and will re-emerge in the future may well depend on the talks to be held between Li and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
But one thing is known. The Chinese have made it clear that they will respond to Indian actions on the line of actual control.
This is a form of reactive diplomacy which China has used quite effectively.
Evidently, China has developed strategies for various occasions, some of which it may never have occasion to deploy.
But anyone dealing with China should be aware, before making any move, that China may well have a countermove planned one that may be surprising in its scope and its depth.
Frank.ching@gmail.com
Depth of Chinese planning revealed - The China Post
Chinese officials have certainly been busy.
Last month, China rejected a Philippine request for arbitration of their maritime dispute, sent planes into airspace near islands disputed with Japan, and dispatched troops across the line of actual control with India, where the soldiers pitched tents in Indian-held territory.
Behold the new New China confident, assertive and flexible when necessary.
In the disputes with Manila and Tokyo, China seems unbending in insisting on a new status quo.
The conflict with India, however, has been handled pragmatically.
In fact, a pattern of Chinese behavior is emerging.
In the Senkaku islands or Diaoyu islands dispute, the Chinese said that Japan had upset the status quo by buying three of the islands from their private Japanese owner.
China then rolled out what were clearly long-conceived plans, including conducting sea and air patrols and depositing with the United Nations an illustrative chart as well as the coordinates of straight baselines of its claims.
In the dispute with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese point out that Manila had sent a naval vessel to the vicinity in an attempt to detain Chinese fishermen. It was only then that Chinese patrol ships intervened.
The Chinese, it seemed, were only responding to a move initiated by the Philippines. But now the Chinese are in control of the area and have roped off the entrance to the shoal, barring Filipino fishermen.
Evidently, China had long prepared its case against the Philippines. Moreover, it was prepared to widen the scope of the dispute if Manila sought arbitration.
Similarly, in the latest incident involving India, Chinese military personnel, meeting with their Indian counterparts, suggested that China's crossing of the line of actual control had been triggered by India's reinforcing of its side of the line in Ladakh with bunkers. The Chinese asked India to remove the bunkers.
In addition, the Chinese have asked India to dismantle its forward observation post at Chumar, evidently because it overlooks Chinese highways and can detect troop movements there.
It was reported last June that Indian soldiers had intercepted two Chinese who attempted to cut the wires of Indian surveillance cameras at the Chumar post.
The Indians say that China has strengthened its border infrastructure all along the 4,000-kilometer line for decades while India did little or nothing. It is only in recent years that India has moved to strengthen its border infrastructure.
Of course, in a dispute that goes back for more than half a century, it is difficult to say which side took the first step and which side was simply responding.
India has been trying to reverse its military weakening in the face of a Chinese buildup of infrastructure. China evidently wants to ensure that it retains the upper hand in any future confrontation with India by insisting that India dismantle whatever it has put up.
Now, the two sides have agreed to end the deadlock and to withdraw their soldiers to the positions they occupied on April 15.
That was the date when China reportedly made a deep incursion into Indian-held territory.
On the face of it, the Chinese, by agreeing to a troop withdrawal, have made a concession. Previously they had insisted that their soldiers were on the Chinese side of the line of actual control.
However, it is not known what concessions the Indian side made, such as agreeing to demolish bunkers, or even to dismantle the Chumar observation post.
In all probability, the two sides reached this agreement to make it possible for Premier Li Keqiang's scheduled visit to India on May 20 to go ahead. If the border issue had not been resolved, the trip to Beijing this week by External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid to make preparations for the Li visit may have been in jeopardy.
The Li visit itself is significant, since it is the new premier's first overseas trip. Whether Chinese-Indian differences have only been papered over and will re-emerge in the future may well depend on the talks to be held between Li and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
But one thing is known. The Chinese have made it clear that they will respond to Indian actions on the line of actual control.
This is a form of reactive diplomacy which China has used quite effectively.
Evidently, China has developed strategies for various occasions, some of which it may never have occasion to deploy.
But anyone dealing with China should be aware, before making any move, that China may well have a countermove planned one that may be surprising in its scope and its depth.
Frank.ching@gmail.com
Depth of Chinese planning revealed - The China Post
