China Seen Surpassing the US as Superpower, Poll Shows

[beijingwalker]

China Seen Surpassing the U.S. as Superpower, Poll Shows
By Terry Atlas - 2013-07-18T04:01:00Z

People around the world see the U.S. as a waning superpower with China poised to supplant it, according to international polling conducted for the Pew Research Center.

The polling shows people in many countries already view China as the leading economic power. Among the 39 countries surveyed, six -- including the U.S. and Japan -- had pluralities or majorities saying that China will never replace the U.S.

“Regardless of which country is seen as the economic powerhouse today, many publics believe China will eventually replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower, if it has not already done so,” according to the report released today by the Washington-based Pew Center’s Global Attitudes Project.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris said in a March 22 report that China’s economy, now the world’s second-biggest, is on course to overtake the U.S. as the largest in about 2016, when adjusted for relative purchasing power.

China has an economic gap to close if it is to do. Its gross domestic product of $8.23 trillion last year was about half the $15.68 trillion of the U.S., according to International Monetary Fund data. That gap narrows when purchasing power is taken into account, putting China’s output at $12.41 trillion, according to the IMF.

China’s military forces are decades behind those of the U.S., as the Chinese work to develop their first aircraft carriers and to expand their ballistic missile arsenal.

China’s Neighbors

The Pew report’s broader findings were summarized in its title: “America’s Global Image Remains More Positive Than China’s But Many See China Becoming World’s Leading Power.”

Across the nations surveyed, Pew found that a median of 63 percent gave the U.S. a favorable rating, compared with 50 percent for China. Those surveyed in many nations voiced concern about China’s rise, the authors wrote.

“Globally, people are more likely to consider the U.S. a partner to their country than to see China in this way, although relatively few think of either nation as an enemy,” according to the report.

China’s military power is viewed with trepidation by people in some regional neighbors including Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, according to the report.

“By a wide margin, the Japanese give China its worst ratings –- only 5 percent express a positive view,” according to the report. “Territorial disputes have increased tensions between these two historic rivals over the past few years, and 82 percent of Japanese describe these disputes as a big or very big problem.”

Soft Power

Also, the U.S. maintains an advantage in measures of what’s known as soft power in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, regions where China has been increasing its economic investments in recent years as it seeks influence and raw materials. Elements of soft power include scientific advances, music, movies, and ways of doing business.

The findings came from polling the Pew Research Center conducted in the 39 countries among 37,653 respondents from March 2 to May 1. The margin of error varies among the individual national polls.

The survey found rising tensions between the American and Chinese publics.

“Just 37 percent of Americans express a positive view of China, down from 51 percent two years ago,” according to the report. “Similarly, ratings for the U.S. have plummeted in China -– in a 2010 poll conducted a few months after a visit to China by President Barack Obama, 58 percent had a favorable impression of the U.S., compared with 40 percent today.”

European Attitudes

On economic power, the report finds a shift in perceptions since the 2008 financial crisis, particularly in Western European nations. In the U.K, 53 percent of those surveyed said China is the leading economy, while 33 percent named the U.S. About 6 in 10 Germans said China occupies the top position, while 19 percent cited the U.S.

The U.S. is generally seen as the world’s leading economy in Latin America, Africa and in much of China’s own backyard. More than 6 in 10 in Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea named the U.S. as the leading economic power, according to the report.

Two-thirds of the Chinese believe their country either already has or someday will supplant the U.S., according to the polls. Americans are divided: 47 percent said China has or will replace the U.S., while 47 percent said this will never happen.

“American opinion has shifted significantly since 2008, when only 36 percent said China would become the top global power and 54 percent believed it would never replace the U.S.,” according to the report.

Youth Attitudes

Young Chinese and Americans showed an interest in each others’ nations.

The U.S. is viewed favorably by half of Chinese ages 18 to 29, much more so than by their elders, according to the polling, which included 3,226 Chinese and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

About 57 percent of young Americans view China favorably, compared with 27 percent of those more than 50 years old, according to a poll of 1,002 Americans with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Because of its large population, China’s economy lags far behind the U.S. when its output is adjusted on a per capita basis. By that measure, China’s gross domestic product was $6,076 in 2012 compared with $49,922 for the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: Terry Atlas in Washington at tatlas@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net

China Seen Surpassing the U.S. as Superpower, Poll Shows - Bloomberg

 

[djsjs]

lol,though our ultimate aim is not surpass US,it's really a obstacle that we must cross.but it's a long way,maybe 30-50 years needed to approach to them in per capita GDP

 

[beijingwalker]

“By a wide margin, the Japanese give China its worst ratings –- only 5 percent express a positive view,”

That's rock bottom low,how can countries sharing so much common culture hate each other so much,haha..familiarity breeds contempt.

 

[faithfulguy]

That's rock bottom low,how can countries sharing so much common culture hate each other so much,haha..familiarity breeds contempt.

For China its WWII. For Japan, its probably the conflicts in Daoyutai islands.

 

[474474]

For China its WWII. For Japan, its probably the conflicts in Daoyutai islands.

What is the ratio of deaths?

 

[ChinaToday]

lol,though our ultimate aim is not surpass US,it's really a obstacle that we must cross.but it's a long way,maybe 30-50 years needed to approach to them in per capita GDP

wrong buddy our ultimate goal is the world superpower let not denying about it, having 1billion people if we don't think like that then there is no future for any of us

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

wrong buddy our ultimate goal is the world superpower let not denying about it, having 1billion people if we don't think like that then there is no future for any of us

At the same time, It is highly unlikely that China will adopt the US superpower doctrine or the Soviet at least.

 

[ChinaToday]

Every Country Has Gotten Richer - China To Surpass U.S. Soon

That's the conclusion that one reaches by perusing the data provided by the updated Penn World Tables. Created by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania the Tables compare data such as income, consumption, market baskets, and labor costs among the countries of the world. The idea is to tease out over time how each economy has changed relative to one another. BloombergBusinessweek takes a look at the new results and reports some fascinating and mostly heartening trends:


According to the Penn World Tables, China’s expenditure-side GDP was $10.1 trillion in 2010. Under the old methodology, it was between $9.3 trillion and $9.8 trillion; the latest World Bank 2010 GDP estimate for China is $9.1 trillion. U.S. GDP was $13.1 trillion in 2010, according to the Penn World Tables.

The good news for America-firsters: According to the new estimates, China’s economy was still smaller than the U.S.’s in 2010. The bad news: China was somewhere between $300 billion and $1 trillion closer to overtaking the U.S. than we thought. The worse news: If the growth rates of 2000-10 reported by the Penn Tables continue until 2020 for each country, China’s GDP will be $23 trillion compared with the U.S.’s $15 trillion. If China’s economy isn’t already the largest today, it is probably a matter of months, not years, before it rises to the top.

But more importantly, the new data reveal how much larger all the word’s economies have become over time. The Penn Tables provide GDP data for both 1960 and 2010, providing a 50 year window to view global economic progress. It has been considerable. Looking at absolute GDP, no country anywhere in the world for which we have data is smaller today than it was in 1960. The countries that saw the size of their economies less than double since 1960 contain just 80 million people—a little more than 1 percent of the planet’s population. A further 1 billion people lived in countries where GDP climbed by somewhere between two- and fivefold. That leaves 4.9 billion people—the considerable majority of the planet—living in countries where GDP has increased more than fivefold over 50 years. Those countries include India, with an economy nearly 10 times larger than it was in 1960, Indonesia (13 times), China (17 times), and Thailand (22 times larger than in 1960).



Around 5.1 billion people live in countries where we know incomes have more than doubled since 1960, and 4.1 billion—well more than half the planet—live in countries where average incomes have tripled or more. Nearly 2.2 billion people are in countries where average incomes have more than quintupled over the past 50 years. This includes the citizens of China, Japan, Egypt, and Thailand—all of whom have seen around an eightfold increase in average incomes since 1960.

Such long-run growth rates are unprecedented. Compare the crucible of the Industrial Revolution: Between 1820 and 1870, U.K. GDP per capita increased from $1,706 to $3,190, according to data from Angus Maddison. That’s an increase of 87 percent. If the U.K. had seen the same performance between 1960 and 2010, it would place the country 34th lowest in terms of growth out of the 107 countries for which the Penn Tables have data. The U.K.’s 1820-70 income growth is weaker than the performance over the past half-century of such countries as the Philippines, Zimbabwe, and Syria—rarely thought of as economic powerhouses.

Nearly 1.7 billion people planet-wide live in countries where the average income per capita was above $10,000 in 2010. That’s above the average income in France, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium in 1960. And more than 3.5 billion people worldwide—around half the planet—live in countries with a 2010 average income of $6,000 or above according to the Penn Tables. That’s nearly as high as the GDP per capita of Italy in 1960 and above that of Ireland or Spain in the same year.

Every Country Has Gotten Richer - China To Surpass U.S. Soon - Hit & Run : Reason.com

 

[ChinaToday]

When – not if – China overtakes the US, normality will have returned

The possibility that China's economy will outgrow America's in the next three years gives added spice to Obama's meeting with President Xi Jinping


In the late 1880s, something extraordinary happened. The United States passed China to become the world’s largest economy, dislodging China from the pole position it had held since 1500 – prior to that, India had been the world’s largest, with an economy more than double the size of the Roman Empire at the time of Christ, with China at number two.



Some time soon, probably within the next decade, that switch of the 1880s will be reversed. China will pass the US in economic size, though, of course, in terms of living standards and technical competence it will remain far below. It is conceivable that China will, at least on some measures, pass the US within the next three or four years; if that were so, the loss of leadership might even occur under the presidency of Barack Obama.

This possibility gives an inevitable spice to the meeting between President Obama and the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, in California later this week: the leader of the rising power meeting the leader of the declining one.

But it will be the broader questions associated with the overtaking that will dominate our lives for the next generation and beyond. In one sense, China is merely reverting to a position it had held for 400 years, because in the broad sweep of history the US leadership of 140 years is quite short. But passing the baton is never easy and you could see tensions mounting and maybe becoming destructive.

So what do we know? The first point is that there will be no single passing moment. It depends on whether you take market exchange rates or currencies at purchasing power parity. It depends on what you include in the economy – do you include work that is not formally paid for, for example? And since all economic data is pretty mushy, and China’s more mushy than most, any particular date you pick will be wrong. However, the OECD thinks the passing point will be before the end of 2016, working with exchange rates at purchasing power parity. The Economist Intelligence Unit thinks it will be about 2021. Goldman Sachs’ BRICs report, using market exchange rates, puts it at around 2027, roughly the same time as the US National Intelligence Council. HSBC, however, thinks it will not be until the 2040s.

That is a pretty wide spread of dates. What everyone agrees on, though, is that China’s growth will slow down and that, in terms of income per head, it will become a middle-income country rather than a truly rich one. By 2030, China will have the same sort of living standards as we did in the 1950s, rather than the living standards the US has now. There is also general agreement that the main drivers of global growth for the next generation will be the countries of the emerging world, led by China, rather than the present developed world, led by the US. So what we are experiencing is a broader transfer of power than simply between the US and China; it is between the developed world and the emerging world.

This leads to a string of questions and concerns. There are the obvious ones of geopolitical power: will China seek to project power aggressively both within and beyond what it sees as its own sphere of influence? That is attracting a huge amount of attention. But there are other softer, more subtle issues. Will Chinese ideas of economic management affect other parts of the world, including our own? To what extent will Chinese social attitudes affect our own? Can we learn from Chinese healthcare and education?

For most of us, accustomed to living in a world of Western intellectual leadership, it might seem difficult to acknowledge the probability that the world’s largest economy will have a much bigger influence on the world of ideas than it has in the past. But anyone doubting that we have much to learn should consider what is happening in education and health.

One is that on the OECD’s study of 15-year-old’s abilities, the so-called PISA study, Shanghai students achieved the highest results in all three categories of reading, mathematics and science. The aim of this study is not to measure the results of learning by rote, but rather to gauge student’s abilities to use the knowledge they have acquired in practical ways. So you cannot dismiss this as the result of Chinese “cramming”. Shanghai is the richest place in mainland China, but the OECD commented that results were close to the OECD average even in very poor areas.

A second is in healthcare in the richest parts of what is now greater China. Hong Kong has a lower infant mortality rate than most of Europe (and quite a lot lower than that of the UK), while Macau is now second only to Japan in life expectancy.

So what is happening is not just China overtaking the US in the headline size of GDP; parts of China are overtaking the West in the areas we thought we were best at – and that is surely a more important measure of success than any “mine’s bigger than yours” bragging.

When

 

[djsjs]

wrong buddy our ultimate goal is the world superpower let not denying about it, having 1billion people if we don't think like that then there is no future for any of us

my point is our aim is not ONLY surpass US,you may read again.

 

[Kolaps]

I think China is a superpower without power...or actually not a superpower at all.

China is just big.

I don't think China itself want to became a superpower like being hyped by US media, like the article above.

 

[Snowden]

That's rock bottom low,how can countries sharing so much common culture hate each other so much,haha..familiarity breeds contempt.

Who doesn't hate the Japanese?

 

[Kolaps]

...........................................


In the late 1880s, something extraordinary happened. The United States passed China to become the world’s largest economy, dislodging China from the pole position it had held since 1500 – prior to that, India had been the world’s largest, with an economy more than double the size of the Roman Empire at the time of Christ, with China at number two.

...........................................

I don't think China was not world largest economy before 1500 too.

It just Western historian can't accept the fact that Han Chinese people during Han, Tang, Song and Ming had high standard of living. Han Chinese traits are hardworking and industrialist, as we can see it up to today. But no way, no matter how hard we work, we produced nothing. The fact, Western historian put Han Chinese standard of living at the same level as European...with a little bit better.

Han dynasty had gold reserve ten times larger than Roman Empire. Almost all the gold gained from Silk Road, as Han dynasty didn't have gold mine. Imagine, how much goods produced by Han industry to be exchanged with all that gold. But funny, with all the goods of being produced, we were poorer than Romans. So our GDP and GDP per capita was nothing.

 

[Kolaps]

Who doesn't hate the Japanese?

I don't think in the people level, Chinese and Japanese hate each others.

When we met a Japanese, and vice versa, we get along so well. Normal Japanese people dislike WW2.

It just communist propaganda and Japanese WW2 criminal decedent politicians that run the country, created all this trouble. Even Okinawan are bothered too.

If we get rid both of them, East Asia will be in peace.