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Guangdong’s resident population fell by 272,000 from a year earlier to 126.57 million, although it remained China’s largest province in terms of population
China’s leading exporting province of Guangdong suffered its first population decline in over four decades last year, the latest sign of a demographic challenge that could reshape the country’s economic landscape.
The southern province said its resident population – people living in the region for more than six months – fell by 272,000 from a year earlier to 126.57 million, according to data released by the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics earlier this month.
“[The population decline] is a phase of temporary return of out-of-province migrants to their hometowns following the impact of the 2022 Guangdong [coronavirus] pandemic surge,” the bureau said after recording the first decline since the start of the data in 1978.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the United Nations Population Fund’s State of World Population report showed that India’s population will be 1.4286 billion by the middle of 2023 compared to China’s 1.4257 billion.
China’s overall population fell by 850,000 to 1.4118 billion last year, with a first decline in six decades confirmed as the national birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 births for every 1,000 people.
Demographers previously projected India would surpass China in April, but the data is complicated as India only conducted its last population census in 2011, with the planned 2021 survey delayed due to the pandemic.
Guangdong remained China’s largest province in terms of population, while it contributed almost 11 per cent of the country’s total number of births last year with 1.05 million out of a nationwide total of 9.56 million.
But the popular destination for rural migrant workers is experiencing an outflow of labour amid a sluggish trade environment and a continuous loss of overseas export orders.
The province had an influx of 29.6 million migrant workers, or 23.5 per cent of its population, according to the 2020 nationwide census.
But the strict virus policies implemented in some cities in Guangdong last year, which led to multiple lockdowns, disrupted the production and exports of home appliances, clothing and automobiles, as well as the flow of workers.
According to data on mobile phone signals from Chinese operators, the outflow from Guangdong exceeded the inflow in 2022, indicating an outflow of people.
Guangdong joined the list of provinces experiencing population outflows in excess of 200,000 last year, joining Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin which are famous for their long-standing outflow issues, with the likes of Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi and Guangxi all benefiting from inflows.
“[The provincial capital of] Guangzhou has seen successive outbreaks in different regions since October last year, which later spread to most parts of the province, and towards the end of the year, some of the out-of-province migrants chose to return home temporarily,” the provincial statistics website said.
Guangdong’s exports fell by 1.5 per cent from a year earlier to US$177.4 billion in the first quarter, compared to a 0.5 per cent increase in national exports in the same period.
Despite maintaining its position as China’s top importer and exporter for 37 consecutive years, Guangdong’s share of the country’s trade has decreased from 23.5 per cent in 2018 to 19.8 per cent last year before falling further to 17. 6 per cent in the first two months of the year.
To address sluggish trade orders along with its population loss, the Guangdong government promised after the Lunar New Year at the end of January to create a better business environment for the manufacturing sector and the real economy.
Mobile phone signal data showed that 84 per cent of people who left the province in January returned to Guangdong in February.
“With economic growth continuing, Guangdong will maintain its advantages in population scale and structure in the long term, its labour resources remain abundant, and the trend of maintaining long-term stable growth in the resident population will not shift, with Guangdong’s resident population expected to gradually return to stable growth in 2023,” the province’s statistics bureau said.
On Wednesday, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin played down concerns over the demographic crisis, stating that China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared and that its labour force is more educated.
www.scmp.com
China’s leading exporting province of Guangdong suffered its first population decline in over four decades last year, the latest sign of a demographic challenge that could reshape the country’s economic landscape.
The southern province said its resident population – people living in the region for more than six months – fell by 272,000 from a year earlier to 126.57 million, according to data released by the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics earlier this month.
“[The population decline] is a phase of temporary return of out-of-province migrants to their hometowns following the impact of the 2022 Guangdong [coronavirus] pandemic surge,” the bureau said after recording the first decline since the start of the data in 1978.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the United Nations Population Fund’s State of World Population report showed that India’s population will be 1.4286 billion by the middle of 2023 compared to China’s 1.4257 billion.
China’s overall population fell by 850,000 to 1.4118 billion last year, with a first decline in six decades confirmed as the national birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 births for every 1,000 people.
Demographers previously projected India would surpass China in April, but the data is complicated as India only conducted its last population census in 2011, with the planned 2021 survey delayed due to the pandemic.
Guangdong remained China’s largest province in terms of population, while it contributed almost 11 per cent of the country’s total number of births last year with 1.05 million out of a nationwide total of 9.56 million.
But the popular destination for rural migrant workers is experiencing an outflow of labour amid a sluggish trade environment and a continuous loss of overseas export orders.
The province had an influx of 29.6 million migrant workers, or 23.5 per cent of its population, according to the 2020 nationwide census.
But the strict virus policies implemented in some cities in Guangdong last year, which led to multiple lockdowns, disrupted the production and exports of home appliances, clothing and automobiles, as well as the flow of workers.
According to data on mobile phone signals from Chinese operators, the outflow from Guangdong exceeded the inflow in 2022, indicating an outflow of people.
Guangdong joined the list of provinces experiencing population outflows in excess of 200,000 last year, joining Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin which are famous for their long-standing outflow issues, with the likes of Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi and Guangxi all benefiting from inflows.
“[The provincial capital of] Guangzhou has seen successive outbreaks in different regions since October last year, which later spread to most parts of the province, and towards the end of the year, some of the out-of-province migrants chose to return home temporarily,” the provincial statistics website said.
Guangdong’s exports fell by 1.5 per cent from a year earlier to US$177.4 billion in the first quarter, compared to a 0.5 per cent increase in national exports in the same period.
Despite maintaining its position as China’s top importer and exporter for 37 consecutive years, Guangdong’s share of the country’s trade has decreased from 23.5 per cent in 2018 to 19.8 per cent last year before falling further to 17. 6 per cent in the first two months of the year.
To address sluggish trade orders along with its population loss, the Guangdong government promised after the Lunar New Year at the end of January to create a better business environment for the manufacturing sector and the real economy.
Mobile phone signal data showed that 84 per cent of people who left the province in January returned to Guangdong in February.
“With economic growth continuing, Guangdong will maintain its advantages in population scale and structure in the long term, its labour resources remain abundant, and the trend of maintaining long-term stable growth in the resident population will not shift, with Guangdong’s resident population expected to gradually return to stable growth in 2023,” the province’s statistics bureau said.
On Wednesday, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin played down concerns over the demographic crisis, stating that China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared and that its labour force is more educated.
India looms large as China’s population woes continue, Guangdong sees first drop
Population of China’s leading exporting province of Guangdong fell for the first time in over four decades last year, adding to the demographic crisis at a time India is set to become the world’s most populous country.
www.scmp.com
