China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling.

[haidian]

But now why US is begging China to talk and why China's foreign trade keeps going up fast?

 

[gambit]

Hope they listen to you, thats a great way to shrink Chinese GDP by at least 3 times if not more.

The world have absolutely NO IDEA how many smart people there are in PDF, especially in global economic and financial issues.

Wall Street? Pbbbpppttt...!!!
London? Bleah...!!!
Hong Kong? Yeecchhh...!!!
Dubai? Gaaahh...!!!

It is only the Illuminati and the Freemasons that have kept these 'sages' from destroying the US.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

It is always amusing to see how a group of usually intelligent and rational posters in a wide range of military and economic matters have all the sudden become so irrational and churn out nonsense when US China trade dispute is concerned.

Back on topic. Have any nation in the history of mankind “won” a trade war by putting up tariffs? Anyone? The last time US did so in the 30s via Smoot-Harley act, it was allegedly caused the Great Depression in the US. It had the same intention basically.

If we look a bit broadly, the very purpose of making USD the global reserve currency through various international US backed institution and petrodollars was that US can run a large trade deficit without any negativity associated no matter how large the trade deficit becomes (well there is certainly a limit but not in the order of hundreds of billions, which is peanuts in the whole scheme of things). The notion of solving trade deficit by putting up tariffs literally undermines its own footing on which the monetary order was built and indicates the current US decision maker has little regard on the fundamental design of US postwar monetary order that has benefited US tremendously over the last few decades or maybe he just chose to ignore them altogether and started something radical.

The bottom line is will this hurt China in short term? Of course it will but it will hurt US as much, if not more. However the long term damage the policy caused to the global monetary order US has established will take some time to become visible.

Interesting time.

 

[haidian]

The current situation is US is begging China to talk and China hasn't decided if she likes to talk or not. In July and August Chinese foreign trade hit a record high after the Chinese and US mutual tariffs. talking is cheap, facts are facts.

 

[Indrajit]

The world have absolutely NO IDEA how many smart people there are in PDF, especially in global economic and financial issues.

Wall Street? Pbbbpppttt...!!!
London? Bleah...!!!
Hong Kong? Yeecchhh...!!!
Dubai? Gaaahh...!!!

It is only the Illuminati and the Freemasons that have kept these 'sages' from destroying the US.

. Right now, I think the last three US presidents are wishing they had done what DT has. This is a turning point in US policy. DT might have done some crazy things but on the issue of trade, I think he hit it right on the head. This policy will far outlive his presidency, anyone thinking that any other US president will do an about turn are deluding themselves.

 

[atan651]

Even if tariffs are put on all Chinese imports to the US, Americans will still continue to buy these products. The only change is that Americans get to pay more for the same goods from China.

 

[hoangsa74]

Did you not even read about how China's global trade surplus only accounts for 1.4% of its GDP??? And please show me evidence about this multiplier effect costing China 2 trillion dollars from a major economic institution regarding the trade war. I have evidence backing up my claim, do you or are you just pulling these "facts" out of your arse again?

In bold, obviously you have not even taken economics 101 YET. The multiplier effect is a BASIC knowledge for anyone who has taken an economics course. When you spend a dollar, that dollar become someone's income (do you even know this???), and so on...this is elementary economics knowledge..genius
http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Managing_the_economy/The_multiplier_effect.html

In this case, 400 billion on trade surplus becomes 2 trillion of incomes for the Chinese. losing that 400 billion of trade surplus and it hits 2 trillion of your economy....but we are not done yet..

China becomes a middle income country by having trade surplus with the world. china's trade surplus is based on manufacturing industries and its manufacturing industries thrive because of cost competitive, and Chinese cost competitive is based on economy of scale. With the trade war unraveling, Chinese producers will see less units being ordered and as less number of units ordered, that FIXED cost per unit will sky rock, which will make Chinese products lose that price attraction.

Chinese's trade surplus with non-US markets are 950 billion dollars, losing that price attraction (due to higher fixed cost per unit) means china is losing 950 billion a year at face value. Taking into consideration the multiplier effect of 5,..chinese economy is being hit with losing 4.750 TRILLION dollars of income. As your stuperman comrade @qwerrty said, Chinese economy will contract 6.750 TRILLION dollars as a direct and indirect result from this trade war with the U.S.

But we are not done yet, that's only about the direct and indirect effect from losing the trade surplus. As china's manufacturing cost rise, its products will also become more expensive for the average Chinese joe blow. when prices rise, Chinese consumers will cut back spending and that's the DAGGER to your economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...on-u-s-surplus-that-trump-s-not-talking-about

Game over.



I don't think so. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...on-u-s-surplus-that-trump-s-not-talking-about

But you better worry about the multiplier effect of Chinese not hiring any more Viet hookers.

You must be really gullible to even believe in what those two journalists of Bloomberg write. If the U.S is having a trade surplus with china, you Chinese wouldn't panic and go sue the U.S with the WTO left and right, LOL

 

[rambro]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1041894662045425666

@F-22Raptor

What? Misleading

As a southest asian All products from china is labelled made in china

Journalism gone to the dogs.

 

[qwerrty]

In bold, obviously you have not even taken economics 101 YET. The multiplier effect is a BASIC knowledge for anyone who has taken an economics course. When you spend a dollar, that dollar become someone's income (do you even know this???), and so on...this is elementary economics knowledge..genius
http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Managing_the_economy/The_multiplier_effect.html

In this case, 400 billion on trade surplus becomes 2 trillion of incomes for the Chinese. losing that 400 billion of trade surplus and it hits 2 trillion of your economy....but we are not done yet..

China becomes a middle income country by having trade surplus with the world. china's trade surplus is based on manufacturing industries and its manufacturing industries thrive because of cost competitive, and Chinese cost competitive is based on economy of scale. With the trade war unraveling, Chinese producers will see less units being ordered and as less number of units ordered, that FIXED cost per unit will sky rock, which will make Chinese products lose that price attraction.

Chinese's trade surplus with non-US markets are 950 billion dollars, losing that price attraction (due to higher fixed cost per unit) means china is losing 950 billion a year at face value. Taking into consideration the multiplier effect of 5,..chinese economy is being hit with losing 4.750 TRILLION dollars of income. As your stuperman comrade @qwerrty said, Chinese economy will contract 6.750 TRILLION dollars as a direct and indirect result from this trade war with the U.S.

But we are not done yet, that's only about the direct and indirect effect from losing the trade surplus. As china's manufacturing cost rise, its products will also become more expensive for the average Chinese joe blow. when prices rise, chinese consumers will cut back spending and that's the DAGGER to your economy.


You must be really gullible to even believe in what those two journalists of Bloomberg write. If the U.S is having a trade surplus with china, you Chinese wouldn't panic and go sue the U.S with the WTO left and right, LOL

yep. china it definitely doomed

 

[haidian]

Even if tariffs are put on all Chinese imports to the US, Americans will still continue to buy these products. The only change is that Americans get to pay more for the same goods from China.

US trade deficit is not made by China ,or Japan in the past, it is made by US itself.

 

[gambit]

I think the last three US presidents are wishing they had done what DT has.

Am not sure if I could agree with that. We know that the presidency of any country is tough enough of a job, but now we are looking at the US, the economic and quite political engine of the world.

Am not sure -- in trying to be fair -- if we can use hindsight to criticize previous presidents or prime ministers for not doing certain things that we believe 'should have' been done. Things can and have changed in less than five yrs. Leaders die, government change, whoever expected the US to have that massive real estate crisis and a recession, etc...etc...

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/jason-saltounebin/reagan-gorbachev-letters_b_2750591.html

Perhaps more than anything, Chernenko’s death frustrated the 40th president.

“How am I supposed to get anyplace with the Russians if they keep dying on me,” he asked his wife upon hearing the news.

It may sounds funny today, but Raygun's frustration was real. He was not angry, just frustrated that things beyond his control were delaying what he believed to be important for the world.

The Trumpster via his advisers may have had all the right combination of economics and politics to take tough trade stance on China, and others.

 

[hiseen]

What the Chinese follow is ”who will surely laugh last“~If the enemy smiles ahead of time，To our minds if it were not a stratagem， that's silly.
Is there a history of winning through trade wars? citing~~

玩孙子兵法，你们这些连小学生都不如~~

 

[maithil]

Democrats will think twice before rolling back these tariffs even if they come back. Looks like permanent policy by US establishment.

 

[Yaseen1]

u.s public will suffer more.price of products will increase and also chinese goods will be smuggled to u.s to avoid taxes.china is major supplier to whole world.u.s population is nothing in front of world population.china should start using yuan or gold in trade with other countries and this will lead to end of u.s dollar.

 

[Viva_Viet]

. Right now, I think the last three US presidents are wishing they had done what DT has. This is a turning point in US policy. DT might have done some crazy things but on the issue of trade, I think he hit it right on the head. This policy will far outlive his presidency, anyone thinking that any other US president will do an about turn are deluding themselves.

Obama wanted to use TPP to kill CN easily wt less hurt to US economy ( US would buy products from TPP nations like VN instead of CN).

Trump policy hurt both CN and US economy, so Trump may have to rejoin TPP if he cant kill CN easily as he wish. ( Trump rejected TPP cos TPP will make VN rich while US economy got nothing change )

Obama is much smater than Trump.