China Navy development from 2001-2017

[IsaacNewton]

In 2001, some US naval analyst named Bernard Cole said in his book "Great Wall at Sea."

"The PLAN is a long way from being the dominant naval power in East Asia, however, even apart from the U.S. maritime presence, the JMSDF is certainly superior to the PLAN, and the ROKN would be a very difficult opponent. Even the Taiwan Navy would not be a pushover for the PLAN."

Basically, the Chinese navy was so technologically behind, they would lose to the much smaller taiwanese navy. At that time, China was still using 1970 vintage like type 053 and type 051 frigates. Their most powerful ships were the 2 recently bought unupgraded Sovremenny class destroyers from Russia for 300 million each.

In 2007, just 6 years after his book was published, Bernard Cole made a 180 degree turn and said

"The PLAN a decade hence will be capable of denying command of the East and South China sea to another power, and of commanding those sea for discrete period... The PLAN of 2016-2017 at three times its present size will dominate East Asian navies, with the possible exception of the JMSDF... and will offer a serious challenge to the U.S. Navy when it operates in those waters."

This was after the commissioning of the relatively advanced destroyer Type 052C, and advanced frigate 054A.

PDF posters: How accurate do you think his predictions are for Chinese navy in 2016-2017?

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

PLAN will not be serious challenge to the U.S, not until 2030 or further or maybe we will never be able to challange them at all , we still have long way to go. If we really want to challenge US Navy, we need the same defense spending as U.S to really make the "accelerated" catch up.

until we have several decent carrier battle groups, quiet submerines, proven DF-21D and operation J20, J31 and more...all these take time and resources.

 

[terranMarine]

The guy first underestimated PLAN then 6 years later he exaggerated our capability with that prediction to a certain degree.
As long the budget doesn't equal American defense budget, it's gonna take a long long time for PLAN to match USN.

 

[BoQ77]

Dominate others is not so easy.
Some choose the shipbuild rally, some choose the imbalance strategy by strenghthen their ASh system.
Even China, before, using the ASh system by DF-xx when their Navy still weak ...

 

[visom]

Matching the US defense spending isn't enough. The US has decades of experience worth of operating large fleets consisting of the largest (and most high tech) variety of naval ships. China can probably match the spending as kiss_of_the_dragon says by 2030 but still needs more time to learn to control that power.

 

[xunzi]

Matching the US defense spending isn't enough. The US has decades of experience worth of operating large fleets consisting of the largest (and most high tech) variety of naval ships. China can probably match the spending as kiss_of_the_dragon says by 2030 but still needs more time to learn to control that power.

We will walk along the road of the learning curve. The US wasn't the most experience in WWII but they defeated two powerful empires. Our machine will continue to improve, on a vast scale. Trust us, dominating Asia Navy Fleet will occur no less than 2025. By 2030, we will have too much toys to play with (drone, latest submarine, 5th gen, warships, and multiple carriers). In addition to that, we will have the numerous superiority with addition of funding scale like the US Navy. No one can match us except the US.

 

[BoQ77]

We will walk along the road of the learning curve. The US wasn't the most experience in WWII but they defeated two powerful empires. Our machine will continue to improve, on a vast scale. Trust us, dominating Asia Navy Fleet will occur no less than 2025. By 2030, we will have too much toys to play with (drone, latest submarine, 5th gen, warships, and multiple carriers). In addition to that, we will have the numerous superiority with addition of funding scale like the US Navy. No one can match us except the US.

Xunzi, USA has all items you listed as future inventory for a half of a century, but did they hurt you for decades?

 

[xunzi]

Xunzi, USA has all items you listed as future inventory for a half of a century, but did they hurt you for decades?

Our goal is our own development. We know that. Everyone knows that. The US knows it, too. So we are not in a rush. We will take step, small and large, and make breakthrough along the way. I can say, however, what you see us doing lately is just a small portion of our hidden project. We have a lot of projects going at the moment. It is vast and diverse. It will cover tank, submarine, aircraft, missile, ship, and more.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

We will walk along the road of the learning curve. The US wasn't the most experience in WWII but they defeated two powerful empires. Our machine will continue to improve, on a vast scale. Trust us, dominating Asia Navy Fleet will occur no less than 2025. By 2030, we will have too much toys to play with (drone, latest submarine, 5th gen, warships, and multiple carriers). In addition to that, we will have the numerous superiority with addition of funding scale like the US Navy. No one can match us except the US.

If there is no improvement for the US economy, then expect their current navy size to be trimmed into half.

Since those 42 LA class SSNs will first become extremely aged by 2025 if the USN keeps lacking the fund and construction speed for the new warships.

 

[NiceGuy]

PDF posters: How accurate do you think his predictions are for Chinese navy in 2016-2017?

PLAN may have more modern warship using Russia-Ukraine tech, so JP-US much support and help VN to build up a stronger navy, then we will be able to stop China from taking control of the sea line in SCS(east sea)

 

[Mav3rick]

PLAN will not be serious challenge to the U.S, not until 2030 or further or maybe we will never be able to challange them at all , we still have long way to go. If we really want to challenge US Navy, we need the same defense spending as U.S to really make the "accelerated" catch up.

until we have several decent carrier battle groups, quiet submerines, proven DF-21D and operation J20, J31 and more...all these take time and resources.

Who do you think the budget has to be same? It should rather be relative as a $ in the US is not equivalent to the $ in China. Basically, a $600 Billion US Defence Budget in the US may be more relative to $150 Billion Defence Budget in China. Consider the salaries, cost to train, equip and maintain battalions and military hardware etc.,

 

[cirr]

President Xi Jinping will make a personal appearance at，and offer his congratulations on，Factory 431 where the 1st boats of PLAN's new generation SSN（Type 095）and SSBN（Type 096）were launched recently。
Follow-up boats are already in the works。

 

[BoQ77]

Who do you think the budget has to be same? It should rather be relative as a $ in the US is not equivalent to the $ in China. Basically, a $600 Billion US Defence Budget in the US may be more relative to $150 Billion Defence Budget in China. Consider the salaries, cost to train, equip and maintain battalions and military hardware etc.,

USA would pay Zero for what China military budget going to pay for ... next few decades.
Like: J20, quiet nuclear sub, aircraft carrier ...

Their budget would pay for other more advanced tech ..