China is making a bet that no one will start a war to stop the island building

[Chinese-Dragon]

As the topic says, China is making a bet: That no one is willing to start a war in order to stop the island building in the South China Sea.

Obviously, none of the actors in the region actually want to start a war. Even discounting nuclear weapons completely, platforms such as the DF-21D and the DF-26 (the world's very first carrier-killer ballistic missiles) can cause catastrophic damage by sinking only a single aircraft carrier. Added to that, nobody wants to take the economic hit, which will likely be very significant. But at the same time... all sides are willing to fight if they have to.

China is putting a bet on the table. That no one is willing to use force to stop the island building. And every day that passes, is another day in which our bet has been proven correct. The island building is moving ahead at full steam as we speak.

The irony is that any actor in the region can easily make China lose the bet. All they have to do is fire the first shot, i.e. open fire on us. In that case, China loses the bet, and gets dragged into a messy and expensive war, which we did not intend to fight.

In case firing the first shot is too extreme, the second option would be to forcibly stop the island building, for example by surrounding the artificial islands and refusing to let Chinese ships through.

The longer they wait, the stronger China's position becomes, as we continue adding islands to the SCS at a lightning pace. And eventually it will be too late, the bet will no longer be able to be called.

Conclusion:

Nobody likes making risky bets. However in the game of poker you do need to bet, if you don't make any bets you will simply be eaten up by the blinds and will be guaranteed to lose (albeit slowly).

China has made our bet. And every day that passes in which nobody has called our bet by using force to stop the island building, is another day in which our bet has been proved correct. It's now or never, if nobody calls our bet then we simply win by continuing to build as before. So, who wants to call the bet?

 

[MarkusS]

As the topic says, China is making a bet: That no one is willing to start a war in order to stop the island building in the South China Sea.

Obviously, none of the actors in the region actually want to start a war. Even discounting nuclear weapons completely, platforms such as the DF-21D and the DF-26 can cause catastrophic damage by sinking only a single aircraft carrier. Added to that, nobody wants to take the economic hit, which will likely be very significant. But at the same time... all sides are willing to fight if they have to.

China is putting a bet on the table. That no one is willing to use force to stop the island building. And every day that passes, is another day in which our bet has been proven correct. The island building is moving ahead at full steam as we speak.

The irony is that any actor in the region can easily make China lose the bet. All they have to do is fire the first shot, i.e. open fire on us. In that case, China loses the bet, and gets dragged into a messy and expensive war, which we did not intend to fight.

In case firing the first shot is too extreme, the second option would be to forcibly stop the island building, for example by surrounding the artificial islands and refusing to let Chinese ships through.

The longer they wait, the stronger China's position becomes, as we continue adding islands to the SCS at a lightning pace. And eventually the bet will no longer be able to be called.

Conclusion:

Nobody likes making risky bets. However in the game of poker you do need to bet, if you don't make any bets you will simply be eaten up by the blinds and will be guaranteed to lose (albeit slowly).

China has made our bet. And every day that passes in which nobody has called our bet by using force to stop the island building, is another day in which our bet has been proved correct. How long until the rest figure out that using force is literally the only possible way to stop it?

China has a far more dangerous "bet" boiling in the basment at its stock exchange. And it doesn´t look like your government can get it under control.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China has a far more dangerous "bet" boiling in the basment at its stock exchange. And it doesn´t look like your government can get it under control.

Off topic, but here is something from the Financial Times from the last month:

Financial Times - What stock market turmoil means for the Chinese economy

"China’s stock market tremors this year have shaken investors across the world. But there is some consolation from January’s 23 per cent fall in the Shanghai Composite index: the panic has little direct effect on the country’s economy.

A drop in stock prices can lead to lower demand: people consume less when they become poorer. But this so-called wealth effect is small in China. “Domestic wealth invested in stock markets is insignificant as a proportion of Chinese household wealth,” says Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics, an investment research firm, who estimates that households hold about 5 per cent of their total assets in the stock market.

China’s stock market plays only a small role in financing the real economy. In 2015, China’s domestic stock market supplied Rmb760bn in funding to non-financial firms, through initial public offerings and follow-on offerings. This represents only 5 per cent of total financing flows to the real economy."

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Only a very small percentage of households in China are even involved in the stock market, that's why it has little to no effect on the wider economy.

Didn't stop all those people claiming that China would crash a few months ago when the stock markets actually fell.

 

[Ceri]

Nobody likes making risky bets. However in the game of poker you do need to bet, if you don't make any bets you will simply be eaten up by the blinds and will be guaranteed to lose (albeit slowly).

China has made our bet. And every day that passes in which nobody has called our bet by using force to stop the island building, is another day in which our bet has been proved correct.

Disagree. China's position, comparatively, rises exponentially and you are on an excellent track. However, by betting on some "islands" in the SCS you are jeopordizing your prospective rise, in case USA acts with regional powers, however unlikely that may appear today.
1: China has absolutely no chance against the US currently in case of a conventional battles.
2: BUT, China's capabilities are on the rise, given a maximum of two decades you might actually stand a chance.
3: USA wants to be the Sea hegemon, Obama administration was just a phase, you are playing risky.

Ultimately you are risking your "period of strategic oppurtunity". Your leaders claim sustainable growth and stability are your primary goals. Even your most agressive hawks (General Liu Yuan) claim a strategy of delay and extending "period of strategic oppurtunity" comes first. People of importance are aware of the fact that Chinese feel a sort of entitlement, historically, to SCS but you are acting way too early.
The Chinese leadership, well knowingly the limits of its capacities, has for a long time pursued aggressive policies in the South China Sea that has challenged America’s maritime superiority there.

As i see it, you are wasting your potential with these moves.

 

[MarkusS]

Off topic, but here is something from the Financial Times from the last month:

Financial Times - What stock market turmoil means for the Chinese economy

"China’s stock market tremors this year have shaken investors across the world. But there is some consolation from January’s 23 per cent fall in the Shanghai Composite index: the panic has little direct effect on the country’s economy.

A drop in stock prices can lead to lower demand: people consume less when they become poorer. But this so-called wealth effect is small in China. “Domestic wealth invested in stock markets is insignificant as a proportion of Chinese household wealth,” says Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics, an investment research firm, who estimates that households hold about 5 per cent of their total assets in the stock market.

China’s stock market plays only a small role in financing the real economy. In 2015, China’s domestic stock market supplied Rmb760bn in funding to non-financial firms, through initial public offerings and follow-on offerings. This represents only 5 per cent of total financing flows to the real economy."

------------------

Only a very small percentage of households in China are even involved in the stock market, that's why it has little to no effect on the wider economy.

Didn't stop all those people claiming that China would crash a few months ago when the stock markets actually fell.

You dont know how economies work. Your government knows there is a desaster boiling,. Economic growth has slowed down. Rising social unrest starts. The current situation in south china sea is the same old game to divert attention outwards. Italy often did the same. When our economy went into recession we started war with ottoman empire and took libya by force.

In the end i dont care about your sand dunes over there. All that matters for me is that you guys pay your ordered airplanes on point.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

I'm sure that the OP is getting a raging boner everyday passes. The idea of 'global leadership' is that you use your influence to show the world what the way forward is. China seems to be screwing up on every level as far as this is concerned. A lot of money and a lot of arms don't make the world consider you a leader.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Ultimately you are risking your "period of strategic oppurtunity". Your leaders claim sustainable growth and stability are your primary goals. Even your most agressive hawks (General Liu Yuan) claim a strategy of delay and extending "period of strategic oppurtunity" comes first. People of importance are aware of the fact that Chinese feel a sort of entitlement, historically, to SCS but you are acting way too early.
The Chinese leadership, well knowingly the limits of its capacities, has for a long time pursued aggressive policies in the South China Sea that has challenged America’s maritime superiority there.

As i see it, you are wasting your potential with these moves.

That is a fair opinion and I can understand where you are coming from.

However, China's leadership clearly feels confident enough to make these moves now. Which indicates a high level of confidence in our next generation weapons platforms such as our DF-21D and DF-26 carrier killer ballistic missiles (the first of their kind operational in the world).

Now who in the world would trade an extremely expensive aircraft carrier, containing hundreds of aircraft, and many thousands of naval personnel, for a cheap mass produced carrier killer ballistic missile?

We don't believe they will do it. That's why we are making the move now.

If we lose the bet, then we lose the bet. When you make a bet you understand that there is a decent chance you will lose. However, the days keep passing.... and nobody is calling the bet. Nobody is using force to stop the island building.

So it looks like the bet is paying off big time. And I'm here, waiting for us to be proved wrong.

I'm sure that the OP is getting a raging boner everyday passes. The idea of 'global leadership' is that you use your influence to show the world what the way forward is. China seems to be screwing up on every level as far as this is concerned. A lot of money and a lot of arms don't make the world consider you a leader.

Who cares about "global leadership"? Even America today runs away crying from undeveloped countries like North Korea. Hardly what one would imagine from such a title as "global hegemon" or "sole superpower". The truth is that it's shifting to a multipolar world, and the trend is irreversible. The days of global hegemons/leaders is over.

 

[Stannis Baratheon]

1: China has absolutely no chance against the US currently in case of a conventional battles.

In South China Sea it is the complete opposite. US has no chance to beat China anywhere near China. And if a war between US and China takes place it will be there not elsewhere.

 

[MarkusS]

In South China Sea it is the complete opposite. US has no chance to beat China anywhere near China. And if a war between US and China takes place it will be there not elsewhere.

China is a regional power and its culture sticks it to it. Its an isolated culture just like Japan. Nobody wants to be like China. Chinese music, movies and other cultural things are plain and simple no big deal in the world. Thats the main reason why chinas "power" consists mostly in building sand castles. Too believe china has the potential to become a global hegemon is ridicolous at best

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Seriously though, America should have made their move 10 years ago.

Now we have a massive arsenal of carrier killer ballistic missiles, namely the DF-21D and the DF-26, the latter of which has a range of around 4000-5000 km. And according to the US department of defense: "Can destroy an aircraft carrier with a single warhead... and there is no system that is currently able to intercept it".

We have already built large numbers of these (which have been operational for many years now).

So nowadays, calling our bet has the potential to cause a significant amount of pain. Trading an aircraft carrier (which contains hundreds of aircraft and many thousands of naval personnel) for a cheap mass produced carrier killer ballistic missile? Would anyone in the world actually do that?

If so, then we are waiting for someone to call our bet.

3: USA wants to be the Sea hegemon, Obama administration was just a phase, you are playing risky.

That's why I support Trump 2016.

Now there is a guy who would be willing to make the above trade, for sure. "The Donald NEVER backs down!!"

 

[Ceri]

next generation weapons platforms such as our DF-21D and DF-26 carrier killer ballistic missiles (the first of their kind operational in the world).

American carrier fleets carry with them Aegis BMD with rim-161 SM3. These systems can potentially withstand your DFs. Both sides will just have to bet, as you say, as to whose system will beat whose.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...killer-really-threat-the-us-navy-13765?page=2

In South China Sea it is the complete opposite. US has no chance to beat China anywhere near China. And if a war between US and China takes place it will be there not elsewhere.

Disagree. US can beat China, however it will suffer substantially in an open warfare, and even in case of war breaks out both sides won't invest everything at once, it will be controlled and China will suffer way more in diplomatic terms, since China is aggrevating all of its neighbours and US posses the upper hand.

Philippines and Vietnam are not yet regional powers. No one else cares about their whining.

Vietnam is on the Rise, and Philippines is just an American colony. Japan and Korea are regional powers, so is Indonesia (definately future regional power with great potential). If China manages to side with Indonesia, now that could be a game changer.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

American carrier fleets carry with them Aegis BMD with rim-161 SM3. These systems can potentially withstand your DFs. Both sides will just have to bet, as you say, as to whose system will beat whose.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...killer-really-threat-the-us-navy-13765?page=2

According to the US department of defence, there is "no system currently able to intercept it".

Regardless, even in the very worst case scenario in which it takes a hundred DF-26 to destroy a carrier, we still come out WAY ahead in terms of cost. The cost of a DF-26 is absolutely minuscule compared to the cost of a carrier.

And it has a range of 4000-5000 km, which means to stay at a safe range the carrier will essentially be useless. And the range will be massively boosted after we induct HGV warheads on them in the future.

If that's the trade they want to make in order to forcibly stop our island building, then let's see it. Obviously we don't believe anyone would make that trade. We've been wrong before, but in this case I can't see it.

 

[Ceri]

According to the US department of defence, there is "no system currently able to intercept it".

Regardless, even in the very worst case scenario in which it takes a hundred DF-26 to destroy a carrier, we still come out WAY ahead in terms of cost. The cost of a DF-26 is absolutely minuscule compared to the cost of a carrier.

And it has a range of 4000-5000 km, which means to stay at a safe range the carrier will essentially be useless. And the range will be massively boosted after we induct HGV warheads on them in the future.

If that's the trade they want to make in order to forcibly stop our island building, then let's see it. Obviously we don't believe anyone would make that trade. We've been wrong before, but in this case I can't see it.

No matter what, you are acting way too agressive way too early. You guys should have invested in image building and peaceful rise. When the world realizes that your true intentions are agressive expansion and payback for the century of humiliation against Japan and Korea. That is when things will turn for the worse, for all. It seems we, human beings, are still acting like apes who can only think in terms of zero-sum. These moves totally destroy assumptions of positive sum international cooperation. Even though China, according to your officials, are interested in maintaining world order through these international organizations like the UN. I suspect these are all a farce, behind the curtain your intentions are entirely different. History is also a testement to that, prospective world powers are always hungry for dominion. China, i suspect wont be different at all. It's just about time

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

How would china intercept a strike against the 3 gorges dam? Military plans reveal that even Taiwan would be able to destroy it. The effects would be gargantuan. I see China is a structural trap here.

Can china inflict damage in its area? Sure it can. Can China make war outside of its reach? No it can´t.

China would face the very same what japan faced in WW II. Short expansion followed by total destruction of its infrastructure, economy and population.

We live in the 21st century and i´m sure that short episode of games in the south china sea is just a short theater play because some economic weakness recently shown. Once china settles down a bit this will end. Nobody in chinas leadership is idiotic enough to go that path.

Attack on the Three Gorges Dam is equivalent to a nuclear attack in terms of casualties, and so will face a nuclear response as a matter of policy.

In the end it's exactly the same as firing a nuke. So might as well fire the nuke to start with, the result is the same.

For this scenario we are assuming that nukes won't be used, since of course everyone in the world will die.

No matter what, you are acting way too agressive way too early. You guys should have invested in image building and peaceful rise. When the world realizes that your true intentions are agressive expansion and payback for the century of humiliation against Japan and Korea. That is when things will turn for the worse, for all. It seems we, human beings, are still acting like apes who can only think in terms of zero-sum. These moves totally destroy assumptions of positive sum international cooperation. Even though China, according to your officials, are interested in maintaining world order through these international organizations like the UN. I suspect these are all a farce, behind the curtain your intentions are entirely different. History is also a testement to that, prospective world powers are always hungry for dominion. China, i suspect wont be different at all. It's just about time

Whether or not we have made the wrong decision, depends on whether or not anyone is willing to call our bet (by firing the first shot, or otherwise forcibly stopping the island building).

If nobody calls the bet, then our move was correct. If someone calls the bet, then our move was wrong.

So far we have been building these islands for several years, in fact we seized the Scarborough shoal from the Philippines in 2012, despite America having a full mutual defence treaty with the Philippines (they ended up abandoning their mutual defence treaty instead of coming to help).

The irony is that it is so incredibly easy for someone to call our bet. But no one wants to.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Beside that the entire topic is laughable. China, EU and USA are interlocked in trade. This makes war virtually impossible. What we see there is sand castle building and won´t go beyond that.

If that is true, then we made the correct bet.

We get to keep building as much as we like, with no risk of war breaking out.