China-India Standoff 2020 - Outcome

[Vapnope]

As the new development along China India unfolds, all eyes are on the outcome of this stand off. China and India has a long standing border dispute however after 1967 no war has been fought between the two countries and so far the border disputes have been solved on the table. However as per Indian media reports, this new development is not usual and it might flare things up.

I want to know from Indians and Chinese their perspective that how suddenly this has happened and what do they think how things would pan out between the two powerful countries.

P.S i would request Pakistani posters not to troll and let Indians and Chinese tell their perspective.
@Deino @Beast @Joe Shearer @Nilgiri @LKJ86 @JSCh @samsara @Shantanu_Left @Han Patriot @surya kiran @GHALIB @Naofumi pls tag others if you want to.

 

[tower9]

I don't think this will lead to war. This is mostly posturing. I think China has a lot of incentives to not let its relationship with India get to the point of overt hostility.

 

[Joe Shearer]

As the new development along China India unfolds, all eyes are on the outcome of this stand off. China and India has a long standing border dispute however after 1967 no war has been fought between the two countries and so far the border disputes have been solved on the table. However as per Indian media reports, this new development is not usual and it might flare things up.

I want to know from Indians and Chinese their perspective that how suddenly this has happened and what do they think how things would pan out between the two powerful countries.

P.S i would request Pakistani posters not to troll and let Indians and Chinese tell their perspective.
@Deino @Beast @Joe Shearer @Nilgiri @LKJ86 @JSCh @samsara @Shantanu_Left @Han Patriot @surya kiran @GHALIB @Naofumi pls tag others if you want to.

It seems quite clearly that this is a reaction to the pressure that China is facing at the moment. The border with India is not at all one of their areas of great concern; their concentration has been and continues to be their front with Taiwan, and in the naval arena, the South China Sea. These petty squabbles are China's piqued reaction to India's undutiful support of other countries to the demand for an investigation into China's management of the Covid-19 crisis; to the Indian flirting with the US proposal for a loosely-linked alliance to support their efforts against Chinese expansion into the South China Sea; and to the Indian deviation from her earlier unconditional support for the PRC.

It does not seem to be very deep in intent, but is merely a Chinese warning to a disobedient neighbour.

Links to their proposed investment in Gilgit-Baltistan cannot be ruled out as a secondary motive.

Finally, in the medium term, in the time-tested methodology of the Chinese state, there is always a step taken towards their long-term objectives, in this case, towards expansion into disputed territory, converting disputed territory into settled, and undisputed territory into disputed.

 

[Vapnope]

Thank you @Joe Shearer For the detailed response. Most of the Indians feel the same as you stated above that this is due to Taiwan Issue and Indian support. What do you think how this issue will be solves and more importantly how all the border disputes with India will be solved?

 

[xeuss]

It seems quite clearly that this is a reaction to the pressure that China is facing at the moment. The border with India is not at all one of their areas of great concern; their concentration has been and continues to be their front with Taiwan, and in the naval arena, the South China Sea. These petty squabbles are China's piqued reaction to India's undutiful support of other countries to the demand for an investigation into China's management of the Covid-19 crisis; to the Indian flirting with the US proposal for a loosely-linked alliance to support their efforts against Chinese expansion into the South China Sea; and to the Indian deviation from her earlier unconditional support for the PRC.

It does not seem to be very deep in intent, but is merely a Chinese warning to a disobedient neighbour.

Links to their proposed investment in Gilgit-Baltistan cannot be ruled out as a secondary motive.

Finally, in the medium term, in the time-tested methodology of the Chinese state, there is always a step taken towards their long-term objectives, in this case, towards expansion into disputed territory, converting disputed territory into settled, and undisputed territory into disputed.

Would this threaten India's hold on Siachen in any way?

 

[MayaBazar]

As the new development along China India unfolds, all eyes are on the outcome of this stand off. China and India has a long standing border dispute however after 1967 no war has been fought between the two countries and so far the border disputes have been solved on the table. However as per Indian media reports, this new development is not usual and it might flare things up.

I want to know from Indians and Chinese their perspective that how suddenly this has happened and what do they think how things would pan out between the two powerful countries.

P.S i would request Pakistani posters not to troll and let Indians and Chinese tell their perspective.
@Deino @Beast @Joe Shearer @Nilgiri @LKJ86 @JSCh @samsara @Shantanu_Left @Han Patriot @surya kiran @GHALIB @Naofumi pls tag others if you want to.

Neither India nor China want a war. All things would be settled peacefully like it was done in the past.

Thank you @Joe Shearer For the detailed response. Most of the Indians feel the same as you stated above that this is due to Taiwan Issue and Indian support. What do you think how this issue will be solves and more importantly how all the border disputes with India will be solved?

Solving border dispute is not in India's hands. Only China decides when it is ready to be solved.

My Guess is that China will not solve the border dispute with India until Hong Kong and Taiwan are united with China.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Thank you @Joe Shearer For the detailed response. Most of the Indians feel the same as you stated above that this is due to Taiwan Issue and Indian support. What do you think how this issue will be solves and more importantly how all the border disputes with India will be solved?

First, I believe that the PRC will keep up pressure on India to remind India who is the top dog in Asia. Any worsening of the situation for the PRC elsewhere - and the possibilities of such worsening are so diverse that there is no need to single out one particular scenario - will lead to an extension of the general pressure exerted on India, without ever letting it go to the extent of a shooting match; no PLA general will wish to ask for a diversion of forces to his command from wherever these forces might be located, addressing the worsened situation.

If there is no worsening of the situation, and we are looking at a calendar marked in quarters, even in years, then the situation will die down in easy steps. However, this dying down to a dormancy will always be aggravated by the usual drama played out even on the LOC; every time a new unit takes up position on the LOC, there is a sudden peak of activity: firing, by small arms, rarely by artillery, picquet raids, and the like, until the incoming unit commander proves that he is not to be trifled with by taking strong counter-measures. The same situation seems to be repeating itself along the LAC.

In the medium term, there will be a resolution of the border dispute once the PRC decides to settle; that will not be as long as it believes its protege Pakistan to be fragile, and in need of indirect nurture, and so the situation is likely to be protracted beyond a decade or two more.

The nature of the resolution has already been represented to both sides by both sides: an Indian acceptance of the LAC in Ladakh, in general, an acceptance of control being constrained by the north-west/ south-east orientation of the land and its serrations; a Chinese acceptance, with modifications (of a face-saving nature, to ensure that they are not taken for granted) of the McMahon line, and a general demilitarisation.

 

[MayaBazar]

Would this threaten India's hold on Siachen in any way?

Yes. Siachen is bound to become an Indian territory fully surrounded by Chinese controlled Kashmir all around.

Chinese goal is to connect Chinese controlled Ladakh with Chinese controlled Shaksgam valley.

Chinese have already made gains in Pangong Tso and Galwan Valley in the last few days.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Would this threaten India's hold on Siachen in any way?

No, not unless there is a deliberate and extended attack.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

Siachen is bound to become an Indian territory fully surrounded by Chinese controlled Kashmir all around.

When the Chinese take half of Ladakh ,there will be no Indian present in SIACHIN.

 

[MayaBazar]

When the Chinese take half of Ladakh ,there will be no Indian present in SIACHIN.

True. Chinese defense systems will shoot down any Indian choppers flying to Siachen.

 

[Death Professor]

It seems quite clearly that this is a reaction to the pressure that China is facing at the moment. The border with India is not at all one of their areas of great concern; their concentration has been and continues to be their front with Taiwan, and in the naval arena, the South China Sea. These petty squabbles are China's piqued reaction to India's undutiful support of other countries to the demand for an investigation into China's management of the Covid-19 crisis; to the Indian flirting with the US proposal for a loosely-linked alliance to support their efforts against Chinese expansion into the South China Sea; and to the Indian deviation from her earlier unconditional support for the PRC.

Since we are talking about pressure. It could be the other way around too, modi/India getting pressure from inside(migrant issues, labor issue, covid-19 issues, economy issues, Islamophobia issues). Now normally these issues could entertained as nothing, but it's the modi personality that becomes an issue here. He has to live up-to that persona(fake) of his that lives in the mind of almost every person India. Now recently there has been increase in activity near LOC by India(also the usual Pakistan mantra on the Indian media).

And it's not the first time modi has used Pakistan as an escape goat for his internal struggles. So we were/are expecting something from India and PM IK has been highlighting this recently. So may be our establishment is working with the Chinese establishment to stop what India is intending to do against Pakistan. And to you, it might be a petty squabble between China and India, but it could also be China twisting Indias Arm to get India on the line of what it wants, or deter what India is going to do against Pakistan.

COAS had his EID prayers with LOC battalion that captured Abhinandan, these actions aren't pointless, they always have a particular aim.

 

[BL33D]

It has always been this way. The Chinese always make moves which normally go unopposed or they discover the threshold or create an entirely new one.

I also see this in conjunction with what we did in Doklam where we didnt budge about the fact they were building infra near a very critical territory to our security. The matter isnt going to go down quickly until we stop building near LAC which it doesnt seem like we will. These confrontations in my opinion will not completely washout with time but create a new normal of more frequent transgressions.

Our infamous bureaucratic indecisiveness regarding the Huawei and the Taiwan issue seems to be the cause.

And we seriously need to take a side. We are sipping too much of the Wuhan and Mallapuram spirit. The Chinese will never show us an ounce of respect or equity if we do not respond them in kind. We need to utilize some of our leverage and create some new ones. The costs for such action by China must be raised. That doesnt require you to go to war. Just clever and confident foreign policy.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

The Chinese always make moves which normally go unopposed or they discover the threshold or create an entirely new one.

Slowly but surely they will reach LEH end of this year at this speed.

 

[Vapnope]

@Death Professor Though you are right about recent Indian political scene and Pakistani angle however in case of this current standoff, India isn't the aggressor. While this would definitely put a domestic pressure on BJP govt to resolve this issue without losing territory. What do you think India would do in this case, as Chinese have ingress beyond the line of their own claim and have already made a move.