China GDP growth to fall below 6% by 2020: IMF

[F-22Raptor]

China's once-stellar economic growth will grind lower for the next five years and will fall below 6 percent in 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast on Friday.

The IMF sees China's economy growing by 6.6 percent in 2016 — beating Shanghai officials' target for this year — but slowing each year thereafter until 2021. The exception is 2018 and 2019, with growth of 6.0 percent seen in each year.

In a report on Friday, the IMF said China was struggling with slower private investment and weak external demand.

"The economy is advancing on many dimensions of rebalancing, particularly switching from industry to services and from investment to consumption. But other aspects are lagging, such as strengthening SOE (state-owned enterprise) and financial governance and containing rapid credit growth," the IMF said.

Economists have long disputed the accuracy of China's official economic data, but agree its economy has steadily slowed since growth above 10 percent was reported in 2010.

This year and last, global markets have been highly sensitive to hints that China's slowdown is worsening, contributing to a major equity rout in January.

Markets wobbled at the start of this week after China reported a greater-than-expected fall in dollar-denominated trade for July.

Despite the slowdown, China's growth outlook remains far higher than for advanced economies and many emerging ones. The IMF sees the world averaging economic growth of just 3.1 percent in 2016 and 3.4 percent in 2017.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/12/china-gdp-growth-to-fall-below-6-by-2020-imf.html

As expected, the Chinese economy will continue its steady decline as time goes by.

 

[Providence]

Just waiting to crash like a deck of cards.

Look at their equity markets only to realize the rot.

 

[Economic superpower]

Of course Chinese growth rates will gradually decline now that Chinese economy is now the largest economy in the world in PPP and $11 trillion in nominal. China is a middle income economy.

China has already surpassed the US in so many categories such as largest manufacturer, exporter, trader, automobile market, E-commerce market, largest tourist spender and so many others.

And where China is in 2nd place, the gap has closed down dramatically.

 

[Grevion]

Still not bad for a $11 trillion economy.

 

[cloud4000]

Of course Chinese growth rates will gradually decline now that Chinese economy is now the largest economy in the world in PPP and $11 trillion in nominal. China is a middle income economy.

China has already surpassed the US in so many categories such as largest manufacturer, exporter, trader, automobile market, E-commerce market, largest tourist spender and so many others.

And where China is in 2nd place, the gap has closed down dramatically.

Yet so many Chinese are emigrating, mostly to US. Why is that?

 

[Economic superpower]

Yet so many Chinese are emigrating, mostly to US. Why is that?

Spies.

 

[TheTheoryOfMilitaryLogistics]

Really？6% GDP growth?
Stupid yanks,you must have been cheated by Chinese propoganda.
Let me tell you the truth:
China have already collasped for many years,all the Chinese economic data is false.

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

6 percent in 2020 is actually pretty good.

What about the American growth in 2020?

My projection for American growth:

8%

In blacks and Hispanics.

 

[AViet]

Yet so many Chinese are emigrating, mostly to US. Why is that?

For high IQ Chinese, living in lower IQ countries will always be easier and less pressure. Same why European migrated to Africa or America continents. An average student in Chinese class can be a talent in the US and enter top universities, get a high-paid job, while in China, it will be hard for him to go to the top.

 

[C130]

6 percent in 2020 is actually pretty good.

What about the American growth in 2020?

My projection for American growth:

8%

In blacks and Hispanics.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual/forecast
apparently 2% which is better than Japan so I can't complain

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

For high IQ Chinese, living in lower IQ countries will always be easier and less pressure. Same why European migrated to Africa or America continents. An average student in Chinese class can be a talent in the US and enter top universities, get a high-paid job, while in China, it will be hard for him to go to the top.

Go to any university in Australia and the percentage of Asians is very very high.

 

[Mista]

For high IQ Chinese, living in lower IQ countries will always be easier and less pressure. Same why European migrated to Africa or America continents. An average student in Chinese class can be a talent in the US and enter top universities, get a high-paid job, while in China, it will be hard for him to go to the top.

Reminds me of my brother's friend. Scored average for O levels in Singapore, but became among the top when he went US to study medicine. Same goes for my cousins who went to Australia and managed to get scholarships.

But I have to add that foreign students tend to score better than the natives, because they have the drive to succeed in a foreign land which they spend their effort to get into. They also have lesser distractions.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual/forecast
apparently 2% which is better than Japan so I can't complain

Japan is an aging and stagnating economy. You should aim higher. But too bad most developed countries aren't doing particularly well, including the EU.

 

[Jlaw]

6 percent in 2020 is actually pretty good.

What about the American growth in 2020?

My projection for American growth:

8%

In blacks and Hispanics.

more like 10%

 

[ayesha.a]

That's pretty impressive, for such a large economy. That means China adds about one Saudi Arabia worth of GDP every year.

Of course their growth will slow down, as they become bigger economically. That's only natural.

 

[sicsheep]

what this article fails to mention is that 6% still account for almost a third of global growth