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China was hoping the worst was over with Taiwan after more than five years of economic goodwill. Now it’s getting mad again and in the worst case may review how much further to take trade and investment links used for five years to charm Taiwan toward political reunification.
Since Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Party came to power in 2008 and started signing business deals with Beijing after 60 years of bad blood, the Communist leadership figured that the rest of the island it considers a breakaway province would eventually see the literal value of closer relations. Before that year hostilities made most deals impossible. Since then, they have signed 19 deals to bolster Taiwan’s economy. Now the two sides are arranging a ministerial-level meeting for later this year to test dialogue on sensitive but so-far buried political issues.
When Taiwan’s lead opposition party also started sending informal envoys to China and talked less about its goal of legal Taiwan independence from China – a red line in the Strait – Beijing got more excited. No matter which party ruled, it figured, relations would keep improving.
But on Jan. 9 that opposition, the Democratic Progressive PGR -0.54% Party (DPP), came out with a statement that affirms rather than tones down its classic hardline principles against China. The party has a clean shot at Taiwan’s presidency in 2016, as all elections are close and the incumbent must step down that year due to term limits. Despite earlier talk of toning down positions that advocate formal independence for the already self-ruled island, the party’s 2014 China Policy Review released Jan. 9 adds support for them. China still sees Taiwan as part of its territory, though the two sides have been separately ruled since the Chinese civil war of the 1940s, and has threatened to use force if an island government declares legal independence.
“An examination of the positions and attitudes of the Taiwanese people towards China policy reveals that their national identity and preferences for independence versus unification have solidified,” the review’s summary report states. “Recent polls have also shown that the public rejects defining Taiwan and China as one country.”
China, normally polite toward Taiwan since 2008, has openly questioned the party’s policy review. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office head Zhang Zhijun urged the party to “flow with the tide and meet people’s expectations,” the island’s government-run Central News Agency said Jan. 10. Otherwise, “I would say it would be relatively difficult for (the party) to have a road map to the future,” Zhang was quoted saying.
China particularly wanted the party strike a 1999 resolution on Taiwan’s future, says Lai I-chung, vice president of Taiwan Think Tank and opposition party’s former China point person. “That cannot be changed, and the DPP will not back down from that very basic position,” Lai says.
Were the party to take power without wavering on its China policy, analysts expect Beijing would discourage tourists from visiting Taiwan and steer its massive state-owned companies to other offshore investment markets. China would also suspend the routine dialogue that has allowed the trade and investment deals to be signed since 2008. At risk is two-way trade that reached $102 billion in the first 10 months of last year and $121 billion in 2012. Those figures make China the highest value trade partner for an island that depends on exports.
But first Beijing will raise pressure on the opposition to propose a way of holding talks with China that does not imply separate nations, says George Tsai, political scientist at Chinese Cultural University in Taipei. The opposition may well relent. “The average voter wants to be sure the party has the capability to deal with China well,” Tsai says.
China Charm Offensive Fails In Taiwan Despite Goodwill - Forbes
Since Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Party came to power in 2008 and started signing business deals with Beijing after 60 years of bad blood, the Communist leadership figured that the rest of the island it considers a breakaway province would eventually see the literal value of closer relations. Before that year hostilities made most deals impossible. Since then, they have signed 19 deals to bolster Taiwan’s economy. Now the two sides are arranging a ministerial-level meeting for later this year to test dialogue on sensitive but so-far buried political issues.
When Taiwan’s lead opposition party also started sending informal envoys to China and talked less about its goal of legal Taiwan independence from China – a red line in the Strait – Beijing got more excited. No matter which party ruled, it figured, relations would keep improving.
But on Jan. 9 that opposition, the Democratic Progressive PGR -0.54% Party (DPP), came out with a statement that affirms rather than tones down its classic hardline principles against China. The party has a clean shot at Taiwan’s presidency in 2016, as all elections are close and the incumbent must step down that year due to term limits. Despite earlier talk of toning down positions that advocate formal independence for the already self-ruled island, the party’s 2014 China Policy Review released Jan. 9 adds support for them. China still sees Taiwan as part of its territory, though the two sides have been separately ruled since the Chinese civil war of the 1940s, and has threatened to use force if an island government declares legal independence.
“An examination of the positions and attitudes of the Taiwanese people towards China policy reveals that their national identity and preferences for independence versus unification have solidified,” the review’s summary report states. “Recent polls have also shown that the public rejects defining Taiwan and China as one country.”
China, normally polite toward Taiwan since 2008, has openly questioned the party’s policy review. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office head Zhang Zhijun urged the party to “flow with the tide and meet people’s expectations,” the island’s government-run Central News Agency said Jan. 10. Otherwise, “I would say it would be relatively difficult for (the party) to have a road map to the future,” Zhang was quoted saying.
China particularly wanted the party strike a 1999 resolution on Taiwan’s future, says Lai I-chung, vice president of Taiwan Think Tank and opposition party’s former China point person. “That cannot be changed, and the DPP will not back down from that very basic position,” Lai says.
Were the party to take power without wavering on its China policy, analysts expect Beijing would discourage tourists from visiting Taiwan and steer its massive state-owned companies to other offshore investment markets. China would also suspend the routine dialogue that has allowed the trade and investment deals to be signed since 2008. At risk is two-way trade that reached $102 billion in the first 10 months of last year and $121 billion in 2012. Those figures make China the highest value trade partner for an island that depends on exports.
But first Beijing will raise pressure on the opposition to propose a way of holding talks with China that does not imply separate nations, says George Tsai, political scientist at Chinese Cultural University in Taipei. The opposition may well relent. “The average voter wants to be sure the party has the capability to deal with China well,” Tsai says.
China Charm Offensive Fails In Taiwan Despite Goodwill - Forbes