China 2022 Jan-Nov budget deficit at 7.75 trillion CNY (USD 1.1 trillion)

[Song Hong]

中国今年迄今总体财政赤字创下纪录，凸显前不久撤销的防疫清零政策以及持续的楼市低迷对经济和政府财政构成的损害。

彭博根据中国财政部数据计算显示，1至11月整体财政赤字7.75万亿元（人民币，下同），其中囊括全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算收支。

该数据达到去年同期的两倍以上，且高于2020年，当时经济受到首轮疫情的冲击，增速创下了几十年来的最慢。

赤字的扩大凸显了11月末经济形势之严峻，不久之后中国政府便实质上撤销了严格的防疫政策。

作为清零政策核心的封控、检测和隔离规定令消费者和企业开支承压，且在第二季度令经济濒临萎缩边缘。本季度感染人数的激增已令10月和11月零售销售下滑。

防疫政策代价高昂，越来越难以维系。巨额的检测和隔离成本令地方政府不堪重负，而在房地产市场走低的背景下，土地出让和税收收入则大幅下滑。

随着病例席卷全国，地方政府的税收收入和财政状况不太可能立即改善。即便检测和隔离开支减少，但随着更多人病倒，医疗开支可能跃升。房地产市场也没有即刻改善的迹象，有可能令土地出让收入受限。

今年前11个月，全国一般公共预算收入18.6万亿元人民币，同比下降3%，降幅小于截至10月的4.5%。财政部数据显示，扣除留抵退税因素后增长6.1%。

11月份各地政府土地使用权出让收入7150亿元，之前一个月为5520亿元，但同比下降大约13%。今年以来，土地出让收入几乎每月均录得两位数降幅。此外，1至11月契税收入同比下降23.8%。

前11个月全国一般公共预算支出22.7万亿元，比上年同期增长6.2%；1至10月为增长6.4%。全国政府性基金预算支出比上年同期增长5.5%，低于1至10月的9.8%。

《学习时报》周一刊登中国财政部部长刘昆的文章称，预计2022年中国财政支出达到26.3万亿元；2021年为24.6万亿元。

China’s Budget Deficit Hits Record $1.1 Trillion on Covid Zero Slump

China’s broad budget deficit hit a record so far this year, showing how damaging the now abandoned Covid Zero policy and the ongoing housing slump have been to the economy and to the government’s finances.

www.bloomberg.com

中国前11个月财政赤字创纪录 受经济低迷和清零政策影响

中国今年迄今总体财政赤字创下纪录，凸显前不久撤销的防疫清零政策以及持续的楼市低迷对经济和政府财政构成的损害。彭博根据中国财政部数据计算显示，1至11月整体财政赤字7.75万亿元（人...

www.zaobao.com.sg

 

[S10]

The sudden U-turn on COVID policy was directly related to government finances not able to further support Zero COVID. Ideally, there should be a transition where they launch a mass vaccination campaign, impose mask mandate and restrict the number of people in public space. Instead, the CPC just gave up in a single night.

From holding on to Zero COVID for way too long, to overnight policy U-turn leading to mass infection, it reflects on Xi's lack of competence as a leader.

 

[Song Hong]

The sudden U-turn on COVID policy was directly related to government finances not able to further support Zero COVID. Ideally, there should be a transition where they launch a mass vaccination campaign, impose mask mandate and restrict the number of people in public space. Instead, the CPC just gave up in a single night.

From holding on to Zero COVID for way too long, to overnight policy U-turn leading to mass infection, it reflects on Xi's lack of competence as a leader.

I dont think it covid has a major impact but rather, this is yet another inflexion point of Chinese economy. I have monitor China data over the years.

Goc budget deficit is not reaching a major milestone at 1.2 trillion while China nominal GDP is about 18 trillon in 2002. This is about 6% of GDP exceed the safe threshold of 3%. In the past, the government can sell land. Now such revenue is limited. Also obligation such as pension and old people healthcare goes up.

I guess very soon China will put VAT on export. This will be as if collecting tax from all over the world.

 

[S10]

I dont think it covid has a major impact but rather, this is yet another inflexion point of Chinese economy. I have monitor China data over the years.

Goc budget deficit is not reaching a major milestone at 1.2 trillion while China nominal GDP is about 18 trillon in 2002. This is about 6% of GDP exceed the safe threshold of 3%. In the past, the government can sell land. Now such revenue is limited. Also obligation such as pension and old people healthcare goes up.

I guess very soon China will put VAT on export. This will be as if collecting tax from all over the world.

It is related to Zero COVID. Businesses were forced to be shut down in major cities, which meant lowered tax income for local governments. People were forced to stay home and locked in their neighborhoods, which meant no taxes generated on lost income. Real estate industry grinded to a halt as people ran out of purchasing power, which meant local government could not generate revenue through land sales. Foreign and domestic investors left or chose not to make long term investments, causing economic activities to drop. The government had to spend hundreds of billions in mass testing and crowd control, adding to financial burden.

There were some structural problems in the Chinese economy before COVID, but how the government responded sharply compounded those issues. It's entirely self-inflicted wound by Xi. He thought Zero COVID would cement his legacy as a great leader, but he ruined the economy instead.