F-22Raptor
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Thursday's numbers are in, and it appears Marvel Studios' latest superhero franchise Captain Marvel is blasting off to nearly $21 million from early preview screenings in North America. That's in the same range as MCU blockbusters Captain America: Civil War and Black Panther, both of which drew $25 million in Thursday night previews. Both of those earlier films had $75+ million Fridays, which represented about 41% and 37% of their respective domestic opening weekends. If Captain Marvel plays similar to those two Marvel releases, then it's looking at perhaps a $60 million Friday and anywhere between $145-170 million weekend bow. The mid-range would be about $155+/- million, in line with my official prediction of around $150 million.
Captain Marvel is likewise doing big business internationally, where it's already grossed nearly $80 million and looks to top $100+ million by end of business on Friday. Combined with the domestic figures, that should ensure Brie Larson's sci-fi super-warrior origin story clocks between $175-200+ million worldwide through Friday, as it heads into Saturday and Sunday with immense momentum and sky-high audience scores.
At this rate, it is inevitable that Captain Marvel will soar past $350+ million in global receipts this weekend, and perhaps as high as $375+ million if those international markets keep delivering -- China in particular is seeing some of the highest ticket sales ever recorded for a superhero movie, behind only Avengers: Infinity War and Venom. I'm predicting a $110+ million weekend in China and north of $220 million from all foreign territories through end of business Sunday, based on the current buzz and momentum so far.
When considering what these numbers could translate into for the long term, remember Aquaman's phenomenal box office run included a $24 million opening Friday in China and $94 million first weekend in the territory, and a $72+ million domestic bow during Christmas season. With a long holiday window and relatively weak competition, Aquaman swam to a mind-blowing $1.14 billion worldwide.
I'm not ready to predict a $1+ billion run for Captain Marvel yet, and we always need to be careful not to treat $1 billion as a magic number representing expectations and/or "success." That said, it's hard not to look at these early numbers and realize even a moderately good final multiplier of 2.5x would suggest a final global cume north of $900 million.
Even if Captain Marvel suffered a sudden collapse of enthusiasm and attendance -- despite having a mostly soft field ahead of it for a while -- a terrible 2x final multiplier would already push it past $700-725+ million global total by the end of its run. That's simply not even a realistic possibility at this point, though, and a more serious "lowest-end" outcome would be perhaps a 2.2x multiplier for a $790+ million worst-case outcome. In other words, it already seems safe to say Captain Marvel will definitely top $700+ million, is likely to top $800 million, and has a fairly obvious path to $900 million if things work out well.
I'll have updated estimates and long-range predictions for you after the weekend data finishes coming in and is confirmed. So stay tuned and check back soon, dear readers.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...massive-350-million-march-debut/#1f8558a504cf
Captain Marvel is likewise doing big business internationally, where it's already grossed nearly $80 million and looks to top $100+ million by end of business on Friday. Combined with the domestic figures, that should ensure Brie Larson's sci-fi super-warrior origin story clocks between $175-200+ million worldwide through Friday, as it heads into Saturday and Sunday with immense momentum and sky-high audience scores.
At this rate, it is inevitable that Captain Marvel will soar past $350+ million in global receipts this weekend, and perhaps as high as $375+ million if those international markets keep delivering -- China in particular is seeing some of the highest ticket sales ever recorded for a superhero movie, behind only Avengers: Infinity War and Venom. I'm predicting a $110+ million weekend in China and north of $220 million from all foreign territories through end of business Sunday, based on the current buzz and momentum so far.
When considering what these numbers could translate into for the long term, remember Aquaman's phenomenal box office run included a $24 million opening Friday in China and $94 million first weekend in the territory, and a $72+ million domestic bow during Christmas season. With a long holiday window and relatively weak competition, Aquaman swam to a mind-blowing $1.14 billion worldwide.
I'm not ready to predict a $1+ billion run for Captain Marvel yet, and we always need to be careful not to treat $1 billion as a magic number representing expectations and/or "success." That said, it's hard not to look at these early numbers and realize even a moderately good final multiplier of 2.5x would suggest a final global cume north of $900 million.
Even if Captain Marvel suffered a sudden collapse of enthusiasm and attendance -- despite having a mostly soft field ahead of it for a while -- a terrible 2x final multiplier would already push it past $700-725+ million global total by the end of its run. That's simply not even a realistic possibility at this point, though, and a more serious "lowest-end" outcome would be perhaps a 2.2x multiplier for a $790+ million worst-case outcome. In other words, it already seems safe to say Captain Marvel will definitely top $700+ million, is likely to top $800 million, and has a fairly obvious path to $900 million if things work out well.
I'll have updated estimates and long-range predictions for you after the weekend data finishes coming in and is confirmed. So stay tuned and check back soon, dear readers.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...massive-350-million-march-debut/#1f8558a504cf
