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Can Turkey become a "Superpower"?

Does Turkey possess the potential of becoming a "Superpower"?


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Selim I

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Well frankly I guess most can agree that the world has currently officially only 1 super power. USA has full control over all of the world's oceans and seas, and is the single strongest military entity in the world. China and Russia combined would still be less of a power compared with US military capabilities. I'm not very familiar with Nuclear capabilities and shield defence systems among nuclear powers of the world, though I know both US and Russia has almost equal amount of warheads around ~3500, this surely puts a questionmark whether Russia also should be considered a Superpower. And China has its own reasons to be ranked as Superpower due to its military programmes and astonishing economical growth.

Turkey currently and for a very long time has been the second largest military in NATO after USA. Turkey has some dozens big scale frigates that are destroyer class, and has many navy programmes one of them being a light-aircraft carrier. Turkey's current airforce is in top 10 of the world's strongest airforce, and if we look in the future - Turkey has a contract of 100+ F-35 and in addition to this their very own indeginious TF-X programme which will be a 5th generation fighter jet. Turkey though has poor nuclear arsenal - Turkey (known) only has NATO nuclear defence system, though there are two things to keep in mind:
1. in Akkuyu (Turkey) there is an ongoing nuclear power plant construction with Russia.
2. A former PM (Necmeddin Erbakan) of Turkey has went to Pakistan multiple times, and returned with nuclear-scientists and engineers - this was a very hidden programme only few officials knows of this and it's not spoken of - the programme was kept on "hold" when Erbakan was removed from authority after Turkey suffered a military coup (back then in ~25 years ago) - what's interesting is, when Erdogan came for 15 years ago he resumed this secret programme (any Pakistani can confirm this?). We still don't know what extent the programme is as of yet.
In addition to all this, Turkey is developing its military capabilities with indigenous programmes in every field, especially missile and rocket systems(HISAR-A, HISAR-O), tanks (ALTAY tank, KORAL), navy (TCG Anadolu), drones (ANKA) last but not least jet fighters (TF-X). Furthermore, Turkey is also advancing in radar and satellite systems. And one must not forget the ongoing S-400 negotiations between Russia and Turkey.

All this said Turkey is surely no superpower, though it may be a regional-superpower in Middle East and somewhat in East-Europe. Though definitely Turkey is an emerging power, and possibly somewhere in the very near future it will become a great power. The discussion on whether Turkey possesses the potential of being a superpower is being asked, because personally I can come up with at least four reasons:
1. Turkey the single most developed and strongest country among all Muslim countries, and most Muslim countries looks up to Turkey today.
2. It is the country that united all of Muslim countries and ruled them for not less than 600 years, and it is the last country that ruled with a caliphate.
3. Most Muslims in the world is expecting a unition and striving for this, but many powers are not permitting this - going with Murphy's law it's inevitable for this to happen.
4. Turkey's current President Erdogan is loved among most Muslim countries, and most Muslims are actually expecting him to initiate this long awaited unition among Muslims.

I appreciate all your thoughts, opinions, suggestions and contributions to this thread. And don't forget to vote, and sorry if I have given any wrong info.
The question is pretty clear, and of course I don't mean anytime in the near 5-10 years but if we think 15-30 years ahead or more?

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Thanks.
 
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If by super power you mean something akin to U.S of 1990's and early 2000's...then no, even China might never be able to achieve that. World is moving towards having multiple poles of power.

So in this context, can Turkey become a great power of the world? Very possibly so.

Turkey has all the right ingredients to become one of world's great power. It is situated at a very geostrategic location, it controls a vast landmass (bigger than UK+France combined), it has a large population, it is an industrialized country with very advance technological base, and it is already a high-income country ($20,000+ per capita in purchasing power). And most importantly, Turkey also possess a very powerful military that is large numerically and possesses modern weapon systems. Moreover, Turkey also posses multibillion dollar defence industry locally and produces a lot of top-notch defence systems in home.

So, as a medium power, Turkey is far ahead of states like india or Pakistan for that matter in terms of technological base, living standards, defence industry, and so on. If Turkey was a nuclear power similar to India or Pakistan--It'd be a minor 'great power' already. However, Turkey is not a nuclear power...and this significantly exposes Turkey's national power when it comes to the league of big powers of the world.

So in order to be a great power, Turkey will need to significantly expand its economy and especially military. Turkish military is not a professional military. Turkey will have to streamline the readiness of it's military and increases it's effectivness. Moreover, Turkey needs to expand its economic output much faster than Europe and catch upto France atleast in various sectors related to aviation, defence industry, high-tech products, shipping etc. This can take several decades.

So can Turkey be a great power? Most certainly. But it will be one heck of a task for Turkish nation to accomplish.

On a side note: Turkey's advantage over others in OECD (bar few) lies in its demographics (among other things). Erdogan keeps on to say "have 3 kids, have 3 kids"....he isn't randomly just saying it. Turkey needs to have positive demographics for atleast 3 more decades or so. It is absolutely necessary to push Turkey from a medium-high income country to high-high income country like Germany, United States, and Israel etc.

So Turks should not overlook the importance of demographics when it comes to their national journey towards being a major world power of 21st century.
 
Turkey has no nuclear submarines or aircraft carriers- both needed for power projection. That's just the start. I don't think so.
 
no the world is going to ww3, armageddon, al malhama or how you wanna call it..

no turkey no saudi arabia no other nation will be sucessfull..
 
If by super power you mean something akin to U.S of 1990's and early 2000's...then no, even China might never be able to achieve that. World is moving towards having multiple poles of power.

So in this context, can Turkey become a great power of the world? Very possibly so.

Turkey has all the right ingredients to become one of world's great power. It is situated at a very geostrategic location, it controls a vast landmass (bigger than UK+France combined), it has a large population, it is an industrialized country with very advance technological base, and it is already a high-income country ($20,000+ per capita in purchasing power). And most importantly, Turkey also possess a very powerful military that is large numerically and possesses modern weapon systems. Moreover, Turkey also posses multibillion dollar defence industry locally and produces a lot of top-notch defence systems in home.

So, as a medium power, Turkey is far ahead of states like india or Pakistan for that matter in terms of technological base, living standards, defence industry, and so on. If Turkey was a nuclear power similar to India or Pakistan--It'd be a minor 'great power' already. However, Turkey is not a nuclear power...and this significantly exposes Turkey's national power when it comes to the league of big powers of the world.

So in order to be a great power, Turkey will need to significantly expand its economy and especially military. Turkish military is not a professional military. Turkey will have to streamline the readiness of it's military and increases it's effectivness. Moreover, Turkey needs to expand its economic output much faster than Europe and catch upto France atleast in various sectors related to aviation, defence industry, high-tech products, shipping etc. This can take several decades.

So can Turkey be a great power? Most certainly. But it will be one heck of a task for Turkish nation to accomplish.

On a side note: Turkey's advantage over others in OECD (bar few) lies in its demographics (among other things). Erdogan keeps on to say "have 3 kids, have 3 kids"....he isn't randomly just saying it. Turkey needs to have positive demographics for atleast 3 more decades or so. It is absolutely necessary to push Turkey from a medium-high income country to high-high income country like Germany, United States, and Israel etc.

So Turks should not overlook the importance of demographics when it comes to their national journey towards being a major world power of 21st century.
Thank you for your analysis, much appreciated. Do you think the world has any Superpower today? Or would you rather argue that Superpower was up until the 90's and early 00's and now even US is not a Superpower but great power.
 
Thank you for your analysis, much appreciated. Do you think the world has any Superpower today? Or would you rather argue that Superpower was up until the 90's and early 00's and now even US is not a Superpower but great power.

No, U.S is world's undisputed super power even today. Nothing matches' U.S military power.

But it's just that U.S of 1990's didn't have any competitor in economy or military. Today China can be seen as US' competition in economy etc
 
I agree with what most of AUz has said above but I would like to add one thing, if I may. In my humble opinion, Turkey can be a great power once again if it derives its strength from the Muslim world and its previous role within it. Turkey can take a leadership position and create a Muslim block that can become its 'strategic base and depth'. It will then have to have access to Nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them anywhere on the planet. Turkey will also need an economy to justify its status within that Muslim block kind of like a gelling force or a locus point. Turkey can do this. It's achievable.
 
Turkey doesn t have 'dozens of frigates which can be considered destroyers'.It has 16 frigates situated between 3000-4100 tonnes which,by many standards are light frigates,and altough modernised,they are somewhat old Meko and Oliver Hazard models.
 

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