A senior leader of BJP, the ruling party, recently said he would welcome Saab Gripen to come to India’s western state of Maharashtra, sparking speculation if new single engine fighters are back in the fray for IAF’s requirement of at least 20 squadrons in the coming years. There is no clarity yet but this article takes that remarks into consideration, particularly as it was made by the Chief Minister of Maharashtra when he recently visited Sweden. The G2G agreement between India and France signed during the Indian Prime Minister’s visit is only for 36 Rafale aircraft, much less than what the Indian Air Force (IAF) requires as part of its sanctioned 42-squadron strength towards capability and numbers. IAF was to buy 126 (+ 63 as options) under the MMRCA process, now scrapped after the Government found the reportedly nearly $23 billion-plus demand from Dassault as too expensive.
If the Indian Air Force (IAF) had stuck to its original 2001 RFI plan for the MMRCA programme, it would have gone in for a lighter multi-role aircraft – in all probability the Mirage 2000-5, as a natural corollary to the already inducted and operational Mirage 2000 aircraft of the 1980 vintage. However, rapidly changing geo-political realities caught up with the habitual snail-paced decision making process of the Indian defence establishment. In the meantime, IAF’s doctrinal and operational perceptions led to expanding the envelope of its MRCA programme that gradually got converted into an MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) programme. The new-found strategic closeness between India and US prompted Boeing to offer its latest F/A-18 E/F twin-engine Super Hornet in addition to the Lockheed Martin’s single-engine F-16 advanced Block-50/60 model already in the race. Dassault of France, on its part, saying it could not indefinitely hang on to the Mirage 2000-5 assembly line in the absence of any further orders, decided to close the line and instead offered its latest twin-engine Rafale omni-role fighter. However, this opened the doors for the four-nation European Consortium to jump in the fray with its offer of the Eurofighter Typhoon.
To redux, this led to the Indian MMRCA competition swelling to include as many as six global contenders; namely, US Boeing F/A F-18 E/F Super Hornet and Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon, French Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Russian Mikoyan MiG-35, and Saab JAS 39 Gripen from Sweden – splitting them in to two distinctive classes; one of light weight (up to 20-tonne AUW) and the second of heavy weight (from 25 to 30-tonne AUW). The result which came about after a grueling flight and technical evaluation is wellknown with Dassault Rafale emerging as the ultimate winner (announced January 31, 2012). However, the laborious more than three years long contract negotiations finally resulting in a total impasse are equally well known.
Ultimately, it was some ingenious thinking on the part of the ‘powers that be’ which found a way out by placing a direct Government-to- Government (G2G) order for the purchase of 36 Rafales from France. Since then, while the new contract is still being worked out and which may take another month or two before it is signed, because of lack of clarity, speculations are circulating like whirlwinds on issues such as its indigenous production and the number of aircraft to be acquired, etc.
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has made a number of statements with regard to the Rafale deal in a series of interviews/appearances after the historic announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Paris April 10 for the direct purchase of 36 Rafale from France. While clear cut statements to end all confusions are yet to find voice, some deductions can still be arrived at. One is the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD’s) new found preference for direct purchases of all strategic defence equipment through ‘Inter-Governmental Agreement’ (IGA) or, G2G route. It is believed the new DPP 2015 to be issued in a couple of months will be suitably amended to include the above clause. Mr Parrikar has also suggested that any augmentation in the number of Rafales to be acquired would also follow the G2G route. Second, while he has not categorically ruled out the indigenous production of Rafale fighters in the country (preferably, in a PPP-Public Private Partnership scenario), his recent statements contain veiled suggestions to follow a different path to build up IAF’s combat force levels. For example, he alluded to using the enormous savings (`90,000 crore as per him) from the Rafale deal to accelerate the indigenous fighter programmes to achieve self-sufficiency. But the very mention of a definite figure stated above may be suggestive of the MoD’s thinking on the Rafale deal.
Notably, one of the reasons why the negotiations over the Rafale deal had stalled was over the near doubling of the contract price to $20 billion (some estimates had gone up to even $24 billion, especially with the HAL’s participation for the production of 108 aircraft indigenously). On the other hand, the direct purchase of 36 Rafales is estimated to cost $5.5 to $6 billion and, even with a follow on order for direct supply of additional Rafales to bring the total to around 63 (1/2 of 126) to form three squadrons with MSOW (Maintenance and Strike Off Wastage) reserves, the costs are not likely to exceed $10 billion (or `60,000 crore @ of a ballpark exchange rate of $1= `60). This move if adopted by the MoD would unleash `30,000 crore i.e. 50 per cent in offsets as per the present provisions of the deal. In addition, MoD would automatically save another `60,000 crore by cutting the Rafale order to half of what was envisaged earlier. The sum total works out to `90,000 crore which matches with the figures being quoted by Mr Parrikar in his interviews and even though not stated categorically may be taken as a possible pointer towards MoD’s thinking on overall Rafale acquisition programme. As suggested by this writer earlier, incremental acquisitions of three-squadrons worth of Rafales with reserves – on the same lines as was earlier done in the case of Mirage 2000s too – would save the IAF from being confronted with not only the doctrinal and operational constraints for meaningful deployment of these aircraft but, also, from facing avoidable logistics and maintenance problems of great magnitude.
While the above move would certainly add to the combat capabilities of the IAF, it would still fall short of plugging the overall deficiencies being created by the retirement of a large number of obsolete aircraft. Mr Parrikar has said on more than one occasion that he intends to use part of the savings from the Rafale deal to fast-track the development of the indigenous LCA Mk I and Mk II programmes and induct 10-12 squadrons of these aircraft into the IAF. But, he is also aware of HAL’s limitations and the fact that the IAF would continue to bleed in terms of its overall strength of combat squadrons if some more drastic steps are not taken to remedy the worsening situation.
Single-engine Fighters
Is that the reason, the Minister recently hinted – not once, but twice – of plans to acquire a single-engine fighter, operationally more capable than the locally designed Tejas LCA, to replace MiG-21 variants, due to retire by 2018. “We need a light, single-engine fighter with greater firepower and extended strike range to replace the retiring MiG-21s, but one with more operational capability than LCA”, Mr Parrikar said.
This brings into play another fighter of a single-engine variety – obviously from a foreign vendor – to augment/ complement the indigenous LCA programme, which could be acquired quickly at affordable (single-engine) prices, as also produced in India in consonance with PM Modi’s Make in India drive.
Let’s take a look at the different single-engine fighters that are being produced worldwide which could meet the operational requirements of the IAF. The list would include the US F-16 Fighting Falcon, Swedish JAS-39 Gripen NG, Chinese J-10, Sino-Pak JV FC-1/JF-17 and the indigenous LCA Tejas.
The US F-35 Lightning II, even though single-engine belongs to a different class altogether and therefore, it has been precluded from this discussion. The second issue would be of availability in the Indian context that would automatically make the Chinese J-10 and the Sino-Pak FC-1/JF-17 exit the scene, even though Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had reportedly offered the Pak produced fighter to the IAF’s Air Cmde Parvez H Khokhar who had served as India’s Air Advisor in Pakistan and was also former Project Director (Flight Test) on the Light Combat Aircraft programme when he said jokingly, “JF-17 is not as advanced as LCA, but it can drop bombs.” The F-16 Fighting Falcon would also be a less likely contender with it being in service with PAF (Pakistan Air Force). That leaves only one possible contender in the fray and as per the official sources, Mr Parrikar’s statement was in fact a veiled reference to Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen NG, which, in their opinion also met India’s Make in India goal.
Enter the Gripen (NG)
According to the industry sources, Saab has offered to transfer its entire Gripen manufacturing and assembly line to India and has been quietly pushing this initiative through Lars-Olof Lindgren, head of Saab India and Sweden’s former Ambassador to India. “We have the designs for a factory, the layout of the factory and how the flow of production would work. We have also prepared for sub-contractors being in the same area,” said Lindgren while interacting with a noted website recently.
Interestingly, while both LCA Mk I and Gripen fighters are powered by GE 404 variants, their advanced versions LCA Mk II and Gripen NG are to be powered by GE 414 engines. According to IAF sources, this commonality could be leveraged with Saab for providing consultancy to the impending LCA Mk II which is expected to make its maiden test flight around 2019 with the more powerful GE 414, after modifications have been carried out to the existing airframe to accommodate the bigger engine.
Saab has obviously done its homework well. HAL might just be able to accelerate its LCA Mk II programme, especially where fitment of the bigger GE 414 power pack into the LCA airframe is concerned with Saab’s help. The latter has reportedly offered to work jointly with the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) in this regard.
However, even after fast-tracking the LCA Mk II programme, the IAF may still be left with large deficiencies with regard to numbers. Saab estimates that it could make up the shortfall of some 200-odd fighters that would still accrue even after the induction of the LCA, the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) from Russia and the French Rafales to take the IAF’s holdings to around 1,000 jet fighters, that would enable it to effectively meet the challenges of a two-front scenario.
Should there be any concerns regarding the induction of yet another type of fighter into IAF’s inventory, it may be remembered that IAF would soon be winding up three different types of MiG-21 aircraft alone, not to speak of the MiG-27s which would also be retiring in the near future. The IAF is also known to have coped up with as many as eight different types of fighters simultaneously and induction of Gripen NG on this count should not be much of a problem.
Notably, Saab Gripen aircraft has proved to be quite popular because of its operational attributes and affordability factors. Apart from Sweden, South Africa, Czech Republic, Hungary and Thailand have acquired Gripen jet fighters in differing numbers for their respective air forces. Even the Royal Air Force has a Gripen operating in its Empire Test pilots’ School. Brazil is the other major country which has selected the Gripen NG for its air force which will start receiving these aircraft by 2018- 19. Incidentally, the Next Gen version of the Gripen will be equipped with Raven ES-05 AESA radar and will be able to carry 6.5 tonnes of payload.
Apart from the above, a large number of middle level countries in Europe and many other parts of the globe have shown interest in the aircraft. The list is quite impressive and an indicator of how by establishing the factory in India, the Make in India Gripen will not only be available for the IAF but on how it could be exported in the global market as a Made in India product – realising yet another cherished goal of Prime Minister Modi. A win-win situation for ALL.
