British expert advises Armenia to stop provocations

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By Sara Rajabova

A British expert advises Armenia to stop provocations in the Karabakh conflict zone.

In an interview with Day.Az, Neil MacFarlane, Lester B. Pearson Professor of International Relations, Oxford University called for negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia to put an end the current tensions along the borders.

Baku and Yerevan recommitted to respect the ceasefire regime during the Olympic Games in Sochi. However, Armenia broke up its commitment and escalated the tensions by killing an Azerbaijani officer.

Neil MacFarlane said: "Unfortunately, the tensions in the conflict zone have become a familiar scene in the region and the deaths of soldiers on one side or the other one is part of a longstanding pattern of low-level conflict."

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported earlier that so far, the ceasefire has been violated 2,000 times since January 21 by Armenian side. In all cases, the enemy's shooting was replied by retaliatory fire.

"That won't go away unless there is a real negotiation process with a prospect of success. That prospect does not appear to exist," MacFarlane said.

He said the agreement not to violate the ceasefire agreement has existed, by definition, since the ceasefire was agreed in 1994.

"Ceasefire means cease fire. The two presidents agreed to honor a previous agreement during the Sochi Olympics. But when one side does not honor the agreement, you cannot expect the other side to honor it," MacFarlane said.

Commenting on the possibility of new war in the region, the expert stressed that nobody has any obvious incentive to go back to war.

"There are too many uncertainties. So, to my mind the risk is no more serious than usual. But there is, of course, the risk of accidental war. The more tense it gets on the line, the higher that risk is," MacFarlane noted.

He said the major players on the international arena would pay more attention if they come to this conclusion that there was a serious prospect of resolving the problem, adding that however, they don't believe so right now.

On restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, MacFarlane said restoring territorial integrity by peaceful means is better than the alternative.

He went on to say that Armenia would have a lot to gain from regional cooperation. "However, it seems pretty clear that they are not willing to withdraw as part of that kind of deal," MacFarlane noted.

MacFarlane sees the offer of the regional cooperation as a substitute for the resolution of the Karabakh issue through a negotiated compromise where both sides make concessions.

"To my knowledge, there is no evidence that the Armenian side is willing to trade one for the other. Also, it is one thing to propose regional cooperation as a principle, it is another thing to make specific proposals," MacFarlane said.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict emerged in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Since a lengthy war in the early 1990s that displaced over one million Azerbaijanis, Armenian armed forces have occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions.

The UN Security Council's four resolutions on Armenian withdrawal have not been enforced to this day.

Peace talks, mediated by Russia, France and the U.S. through the OSCE Minsk Group, are underway on the basis of a peace outline proposed by the Minsk Group co-chairs and dubbed the Madrid Principles. The negotiations have been largely fruitless so far.