Beyond Pakistan: The First Nuclear Failed State Part One

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Here's an article that describes the scenario if pakistan, a nuclear state fails.

by Paolo Liebl Von Schirach
Washington (UPI) April 24, 2009
Afghanistan is a big problem for the Western world and for the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But if Pakistan fails, the United States and its allies have an even bigger problem.

What can the West do to prevent a large, dysfunctional nuclear-armed Muslim nation of 172 million inhabitants from becoming a major incubator of anti-Western hostility? The disintegration or continuing instability in Pakistan, or its possible takeover by extreme Islamic forces, including the Taliban, could also threaten a major conflict with neighboring India, which also has nuclear weapons.

In reality, however, there is very little that the United States or any other outside nation can do to influence political developments in Pakistan. The nation's problems are rooted in an immature, essentially anti-democratic political culture in which religious fundamentalism and its violent appendices have found a fertile terrain.

The Saudi government has funded thousands of madrassas, Islamic religious schools that teach no science or many other secular subjects. It may be simplistic to assume that religious education provides breeding grounds for fundamentalists or would-be terrorists, but in at least some cases this is certainly true.

However, the problem is not so much religious education as a lack of a vibrant, modern education aimed at preparing young Pakistanis to become protagonists in the unfolding global economy.

Religious education alone, even if devoid of any hint of radicalism, does not provide the necessary skills or attitudes for economic enterprise and wealth creation. On the other hand, unimpeded Islamic religious radicalism, not seriously challenged by a weak and disorganized state, is a real problem. It not only threatens Pakistan itself but also fans the continuing conflict in neighboring Afghanistan and has serious implications for stability in South Asia and as a growing menace for the rest of the world.

Given all this, what can the West do? Not very much, at least not directly. Still, the West can at least attempt to create an international environment that may offer more opportunities to those Pakistanis who would like to try peaceful modernization.

In other words, the average Pakistani citizen should be able to believe that there is a realistic way forward founded on peaceful modernization, fostered by constructive links with the international economy. It may not be much, but providing an alternative to millenarian fanaticism is better than doing nothing.

For those who had ignored the progressive radicalization of Pakistan, the terror attacks last November in Mumbai, the economic and cultural capital of India, helped focus the international community on the sources of terrorism in South Asia. The Indian government and security services believe the attackers, who came by sea, were trained and equipped in mujahedin camps in northern Pakistan.

(Paolo Liebl von Schirach is the editor of SchirachReport.com, a regular contributor to Swiss radio and an international economic-development expert.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Beyond_Pakistan_The_First_Nuclear_Failed_State_Part_One_999.html

 

[AkhandBharat]

Second Article in the series:

Outside View: If Pakistan Fails Part Two

by Paolo Liebl Von Schirach
Lusaka, Zambia, April 27, 2009

The terror attacks last November in Mumbai, the economic and cultural capital of India, helped focus the international community on the sources of terrorism in South Asia. The Indian government and security services believe the attackers, who came by sea, were trained and equipped in mujahedin camps in northern Pakistan.

For those who had ignored the progressive radicalization of Pakistan, the Mumbai attacks and their probable Pakistani origin helped clarify the reading of the role certain extremist groups based within Pakistan play within the broader context of Islamic fundamentalism. As a result, Pakistan has been raised now to the status of source of world instability, as opposed to supporting character.

Now that this is noted, the question is what productive role, if any, the United States, the West and other major nations such as China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan and India should play in order to diminish the intensity of this threat. Can any or most of these outside powers, acting in concert, create the premises for enhanced stability both within Pakistan and its neighbors and among all of them?

Is there anything constructive that can be undertaken? In Afghanistan, the United States, with a disappointing level of support from its allies in the 28-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is trying to defeat a stubborn and still growing insurgency featuring the Taliban, plus other assorted elements.

Until recently, the reading was that Pakistan was important as an accessory player in relation to Afghanistan. U.S. and Western concern about Pakistan was mostly focused on its direct or indirect role in providing sanctuary to the Taliban and al-Qaida hiding in the mountainous border areas between the two countries.

If only Pakistan would be more forceful in denying access to the insurgents, then, it was widely assumed, U.S. and allied military operations in support of the embattled government of President Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan would have a far better chance of succeeding.

But now the focus has shifted. Pakistan is seen by U.S. policymakers and many other Western analysts not just as a weak, unwitting or maybe partially willing accessory. Pakistan is now widely seen as "the problem" -- or at least "a problem" in its own right.

Pakistan, Western policymakers have belatedly realized, has become a new center of jihadi radicalism with groups that have acquired the ability and willingness to engage in international operations in South Asia and elsewhere.

The fertile ground for radical violence in Pakistan is provided by various Islamic fundamentalist factions that have prospered in recent decades from the long-running and deep-rooted economic stagnation in the country.

Part 3: The crucial role that the perennially unresolved Kashmir dispute with India has played in keeping Pakistan radical and destabilized over the decades

(Paolo Liebl von Schirach is the editor of SchirachReport.com, a regular contributor to Swiss radio and an international economic-development expert.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Outside_View_If_Pakistan_Fails_Part_Two_999.html