Beijing's View of the Crisis in Iraq

[TaiShang]

I quote [Thank you to Tianxia at CDF]:

I guess Beijing reads the crisis the right way and it is best not to get involved -- it is a sectarian with foreign (lots of it) involvement as the topping. Beijing should, nonetheless, advise the US to get involved and sort out the nightmare of its own making. It is China's interest to see the US get trapped once again.

Graphic: Beijing Review

 

[Jlaw]

The Iraqi situation is what it is today because the US wanted it that way. The same thing the Belgiums put the Tutsis and Hutu, enemies for centuries side by side. Divide and conquer.

 

[cnleio]

Far Far away from China, ISIL only threat the oil fileds owned by China company in Iraq.

What China can do in the MiddleEast, just arm & support Syria and Iran.

 

[TaiShang]

Realistically, it is to the best of China's interest if the US is bogged down in Iraq for another decade, wasting precious time and energy.

Apparently ISIS is a Western creation helped by lackeys such as Turkey and Qatar, but the gene seems to be out of the bottle and now the little lackeys like Turkey asking for Uncle Sam's helping hand to put the gene back in the bottle. But the gene has grown too big, too soon. As they famously say in the capitalist US (before they bailed out private companies via public funds), maybe "it is too big to fail" already.

They threw the bottle with the gene inside in Syria but, thanks to Hezbollah of Lebanon and Iran+Russia, Syria has cleaned up most of the country from the terrorists, and for some heavenly reasons, terrorists now come back to bite the helping hands of their own masters, including the shining hill of Turkey.

Another window of opportunity might be opening for China.

 

[Raphael]

China's options are limited by its non-interference policies. Nevertheless, its strategy should be obvious:

1. No direct intervention. In a sectarian mess like this, it's best not to attract anyone's attention or wrath by getting involved too directly.
2. Indirectly support Iranian efforts to secure Baghdad, the Shia areas in the south and other areas with important oil fields (mainly Kirkuk). Refer to:

3. As long as ISIS stays out of oil-rich areas, we should encourage Iraqi central government to make peace with them. That allows ISIS to consolidate its territory in Iraq and Syria. The US doesn't want ISIS to stay in the long-term (it's a Taliban-type risk), and is obviously relying on sectarian conflict and the Iraqi government to deal with them. If Iraq is unwilling to do this, then US will be forced to return and kill them off, especially if ISIS plan another 9/11 type incident.

 

[cirr]

The US should demand on-the-ground involvement of their trusted ally Japan。

 

[Tshering22]

The US should demand on-the-ground involvement of their trusted ally Japan。

Why would Japan interfere on US' behalf?

 

[cirr]

It is only appropriate and proper for Japan to pick up where the US left since the two are such good buddies，not to mention the fact that Japan is hugely dependent on oil and gas supplies from Iraq and the surrounding regions。

 

[TaiShang]

Why would Japan interfere on US' behalf?

In the War on Afghanistan, Japan has provided some sort of active help for the US combat forces (NAVY).

I guess what US means when they talk about "a more responsible partner" is just this. That's probably why they encourage Japan's military normalization. And the current right-wing government seems to be all willing to take part in US campaigns.

I would not be surprised to see Japan to be more embedded in US' global security apparatus.

 

[55100864]

We not gonna clean the shit US left in Iraq. someone will.

 

[Tshering22]

In the War on Afghanistan, Japan has provided some sort of active help for the US combat forces (NAVY).

I guess what US means when they talk about "a more responsible partner" is just this. That's probably why they encourage Japan's military normalization. And the current right-wing government seems to be all willing to take part in US campaigns.

I would not be surprised to see Japan to be more embedded in US' global security apparatus.

It is just a temporary arrangement IMO. No right wing Japanese would ever be subservient to any country. It is simply not in their principles to bow before anyone. I have a good friend from my work from a right wing group called Issuikai or something like that in Japanese. These guys are very critical of USA and prefer to take a more independent stand.

Japan wants to rev up its technology exports and revive its economy. It wants to economically compete with other world powers in arms industry and become the second option to USA in Asia.

Tell me something though, you got oil fields in Iraq right? Do the Japanese also have oil fields there? If yes, then what you say is possible?

We not gonna clean the shit US left in Iraq. someone will.

But surely your investments there are at risk. Won't the PLA want to take care of that? Your investments and our labour. Both are there. In the near future, we both will need to cooperate with each other on these issues because of the high stakes there.

 

[dlclong]

ISIL'S BIGEST BOSS IS THE USA

 

[55100864]

But surely your investments there are at risk. Won't the PLA want to take care of that? Your investments and our labour. Both are there. In the near future, we both will need to cooperate with each other on these issues because of the high stakes there.

I think whoever take power in Iraq, they will have to do business with China. The current situation is indeed pose threat to our investment, but if China lunch military operation in Iraq, the west will do whatever they can to set trap for us. I believe there are many parties that have much more concern than we do. Iraq is simply beyond our comfort zone, PLA don't have enough power projection.

 

[TaiShang]

Tell me something though, you got oil fields in Iraq right? Do the Japanese also have oil fields there? If yes, then what you say is possible?

China is Iraq's largest investor and also customer of oil over the past two years.

Iraq's share in Japan's import is still minuscule. At least somwhere under 4% of the total import.

For China, Iraq is ranked 6th, with 8% of the total. Given the amount of oil China consumes, it is clear Iraq is way important for China (in terms of energy security) than Japan.

But, China, smartly, worked only with the central government. In fact, since the US Exxon wanted to work with the Kurdistan Autonomus Region, the central government kicked them out and gave the field to China.

So, so long as the central government remains in control, Chinese investment is more or less secured. But no body can tell the future, for sure.

I expect, as far as this ISIS lunatics are concerned, these factions will be eliminated sooner or later. Currently, they progress only because of the fear they spread. But, with more regional/international participation, their funds and manpower will be dried up. If the ISIS gains full control of Iraq then the problem is much higher for the region and the US/Britain duo than a few oil fields that China may lose.

But, for oil or for gold, I do not expect China to get involved in any way. Japan is more likely, though, but only in the capacity of assisting the US, not as active fighting force.

 

[Beidou2020]

The Iraqi situation is what it is today because the US wanted it that way. The same thing the British put the Tutsis and Hutu, enemies for centuries side by side. Divide and conquer.

People think the US wants peace, but they don't understand that only the US gains from chaos and desperation of countries and governments. The west has used divide and conquer for centuries and the rest of the world has fallen for their trap every time.