BECA and ASAT feasibility (or not)

[Taimoor Khan]

Discussion PORTED from following thread: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/paki...-patrol-aircraft.689180/page-10#post-12777591

Spoiler: Hint

Beidou

Options exist and can be tapped without making much noise.

If (or when) Pakistan is to fight a war then Pakistan should fight the country responsible for instigating it and keep its objectives realistic. This is all.

What Beidou got to do with Pakistan own threat perception?

Its an option for Pakistan, whoes implementation at military level (conventional or strategic) by Pakistan is neither confirmed or denied. Pakistan and China have not entered in to an open military alliance, Unlike between American and India who have through BECA, came out in open and revealed their cards. There is no plausible deniability now as far as America is concerned. God forbid, any Indian missile land on Pakistani soil, it will be given that it has used "American state owned" eyes and ears in space. Let me remind you, its not American products SOLD to India but rather American state own resources at disposal to India to be used against Pakistan in any future conflict.

Your "head in the sand" approach will be a disaster for Pakistan national security and I sincerely hope our strategic thinkers are not holding the same views.

Threat spectrum have increased many folds, it needs to be acknowledged first and foremost. Anti satellite weapon systems should be a priority now. China already got such weapons and we need to look into this as well, for our own national security. In case of war, you have to poke eyes and ears against your national security, regardless where they are coming from and who they belong to.

 

[LeGenD]

What Beidou got to do with Pakistan own threat perception?

Its an option for Pakistan, whoes implementation at military level (conventional or strategic) by Pakistan is neither confirmed or denied. Pakistan and China have not entered in to an open military alliance, Unlike between American and India who have through BECA, came out in open and revealed their cards. There is no plausible deniability now as far as America is concerned. God forbid, any Indian missile land on Pakistani soil, it will be given that it has used "American state owned" eyes and ears in space. Let me remind you, its not American products SOLD to India but rather American state own resources at disposal to India to be used against Pakistan in any future conflict.

Your "head in the sand" approach will be a disaster for Pakistan national security and I sincerely hope our strategic thinkers are not holding the same views.

Threat spectrum have increased many folds, it needs to be acknowledged first and foremost. Anti satellite weapon systems should be a priority now. China already got such weapons and we need to look into this as well, for our own national security. In case of war, you have to poke eyes and ears against your national security, regardless where they are coming from and who they belong to.

And what do you think will happen if somebody in Pakistan make the call to strike at American satellites?

Although Pakistan have not demonstrated ASAT capability thus far, it is important to understand wider consequences of putting this capability to use regardless. When China struck one its satellites back in 2007, resultant debris threatened 8 additional satellites and drew global reactions consequently. China was like "ouch."

So if Pakistan strike at those satellites, WE risk damaging a number of others as well including possibly Chinese in the mix. Pakistan also risks American retaliation while it is fighting a war with India. How is this helpful to our cause/struggle for survival in the region?

Pakistan cannot stop USA from making deals with India unfortunately. Pakistan can, however, reach out to centers of power in USA and convey its concerns to them and seek potential solutions in relation. Pakistan have supported USA in Afghanistan and this dynamic can be tapped for the needful.

I hope Pakistani establishment is not as trigger happy as you wish it to be coz a person living in UK is probably safe from this s***. It would be millions of lives here in Pakistan that would be on the line, tough guy.

Some matters are better dealt through alternatives at disposal and not through direct kinetic approaches. Conventional wisdom if you will.

Now this conversation must end because this discourse is heading in another direction.

 

[Yasser76]

Pakistani, JDAMS, Harpoons and I suspect much equipment in it's F-16s and Orions depend on US Sats too.....!

 

[Taimoor Khan]

And what do you think will happen if somebody in Pakistan make the call to strike at American satellites?

Although Pakistan have not demonstrated ASAT capability thus far, it is important to understand wider consequences of putting this capability to use anyways. When China struck one its satellites back in 2007, resultant debris threatened 8 additional satellites and drew global reactions consequently. China was like "ouch."

So if Pakistan strike at those satellites, WE risk damaging a number of others as well including possibly Chinese. Pakistan also risks American retaliation while it is fighting a war with India. How is this helpful to our cause?

Pakistan cannot stop USA from making deals with India unfortunately. Pakistan can reach out to centers of power in USA and convey its concerns to them and seek potential solutions in relation. Pakistan have supported USA in Afghanistan and this dynamic can be tapped for the needful.

I hope Pakistani establishment is not as trigger happy as you wish it to be coz a person living in UK is probably safe from this shit. It would be millions of lives here in Pakistan that would be on the line, tough guy.

Some matters are better dealt through alternatives at disposal and not through direct kinetic approaches.

You are not going to think of conseqences when your home is attacked do you? you will protect it with whatever you got!

As for ASAT capability, even India tested it not long ago, you are already lagging behind in this front. Bringing Chinese experiences will not do away the need for Pakistan to have such capability at its disposal.


As for American so called retaliation, you are in too much awe of yanks to come to that conclusion so quickly. If America is that trigger happy to go to war with a nuclear armed country over destruction of few satellites, which btw were used against Pakistan to begin with (in a conflict scenario) , then I said whole logic and escalation ladder theory goes out of the window. No Einstein, real world doesn't work like that. Your country, covertly have fought a war against American establishment in Afghanistan, that didn't start the war between Pakistan and America, you think some satellites will?


Ofcourse we cannot stop nations to make deal with each other, we just have to ensure that everyone understand the consequences and hence it is extremely important to take this threat of American space based system and its use by India very seriously, not just through diplomatic channels (As you suggested) but also through military capability, as diplomacy without the military muscle behind is useless.

 

[LeGenD]

You are not going to think of conseqences when your home is attacked do you? you will protect it with whatever you got!

As for ASAT capability, even India tested it not long ago, you are already lagging behind in this front. Bringing Chinese experiences will not do away the need for Pakistan to have such capability at its disposal.


As for American so called retaliation, you are in too much awe of yanks to come to that conclusion so quickly. If America is that trigger happy to go to war with a nuclear armed country over destruction of few satellites, which btw were used against Pakistan to begin with (in a conflict scenario) , then I said whole logic and escalation ladder theory goes out of the window. No Einstein, real world doesn't work like that. Your country, covertly have fought a war against American establishment in Afghanistan, that didn't start the war between Pakistan and America, you think some satellites will?


Ofcourse we cannot stop nations to make deal with each other, we just have to ensure that everyone understand the consequences and hence it is extremely important to take this threat of American space based system and its use by India very seriously, not just through diplomatic channels (As you suggested) but also through military capability, as diplomacy without the military muscle behind is useless.

Refer back to what I mentioned in post # 145.

"If (or when) Pakistan is to fight a war then Pakistan should fight the country responsible for instigating it and keep its objectives realistic."

If it is USA then American satellites represent legitimate targets. However, this is exceedingly challenging threat environment to deal with because different types of satellites are known to orbit Earth at different altitudes and many are demonstrating extraordinary orbiting speeds (> MACH 20). Isolated attempts to shoot one down in peacetime conditions is not very instructive due to ample time and space at disposal for the needful. Americans have deployed many satellites and Pakistan won't have sufficient time and capacity to snipe at each in case of hostilities. This objective is unattainable/impractical from technical standpoint, let alone from strategic standpoint for a country with limited resources such as Pakistan. Do not be fooled by ASAT hype in discourses.

Do you think only Pakistan is nuclear armed? Do you think Americans are afraid or something? You are not paying much attention to key developments around the world then. Pakistani nuclear option is good enough to intimidate/spook India but USA? Come on. Even if WE had a limited number of ICBMs, they won't be phased.

It is important to be aware of RED LINES of USA while war-gaming India and otherwise. You are 'assuming' that Americans won't mind Pakistan attempting to snipe at its satellites while dealing with India. You do not know for sure in person. They have invested a great sum in spaceborne assets and it is logical for a distant observer to expect them to take their security seriously. I can tell you that Americans continue to discuss these matters at length - apparent in their records in the Public domain.

Let us hope and pray to Allah Almighty that Pakistan is never tested to the extent it is being alluded to in this conversation.

Pakistan was created to provide a friendly environment to Muslims of the subcontinent for livelihood. And Pakistan strives for self-preservation for which it has invested so much in defensive applications. WE have problems with India over Kashmir - a cause for which have struggled and suffered for so long.

Let me tell you something - Pakistani centers of power are fully aware of the fact that a full-scale war between Pakistan and India won't be fruitful to either; both risk much destruction in the process even with China in the mix. Pakistani elected officials and even military officials have alluded to this fact at times - I have seen these talks and I can dig them out for you if necessary. I know a thing or two about Pakistani military might as well. I also study others just to keep myself informed.

And here I see you overreaching in your assumptions in personal capacity.

I never wanted to be this blunt with you in this (friendly) conversation but perhaps this was necessary.

"If (or when) Pakistan is to fight a war then Pakistan should fight the country responsible for instigating it and keep its objectives realistic."

I will reiterate that some matters are better dealt through alternatives at disposal and not through direct kinetic approaches - conventional wisdom if you will. Pakistan can reach out to centers of power in USA and convey its concerns to them and seek potential solutions in relation. Pakistan have supported USA in Afghanistan and this dynamic can be tapped for the needful.

Members of this forum can get carried away in their emotions (passion) and I respect these views but it is very important for the state to be measured in its responses.

 

[Basel]

Refer back to what I mentioned in post # 145.

"If (or when) Pakistan is to fight a war then Pakistan should fight the country responsible for instigating it and keep its objectives realistic."

If it is USA then American satellites represent legitimate targets. However, this is exceedingly challenging threat environment to deal with because different types of satellites are known to orbit Earth at different altitudes and many are demonstrating extraordinary orbiting speeds (> MACH 20). Isolated attempts to shoot one down in peacetime conditions is not very instructive due to ample time and space at disposal for the needful. Americans have deployed many satellites and Pakistan won't have sufficient time and capacity to snipe at each in case of hostilities. This objective is unattainable/impractical from technical standpoint, let alone from strategic standpoint for a country with limited resources such as Pakistan. Do not be fooled by ASAT hype in discourses.

Do you think only Pakistan is nuclear armed? Do you think Americans are afraid or something? You are not paying much attention to key developments around the world then. Pakistani nuclear option is good enough to intimidate/spook India but USA? Come on. Even if WE had a limited number of ICBMs, they won't be phased.

It is important to be aware of RED LINES of USA while war-gaming India and otherwise. You are 'assuming' that Americans won't mind Pakistan attempting to snipe at its satellites while dealing with India. You do not know for sure in person. They have invested a great sum in spaceborne assets and it is logical for a distant observer to expect them to take their security seriously. I can tell you that Americans continue to discuss these matters at length - apparent in their records in the Public domain.

Let us hope and pray to Allah Almighty that Pakistan is never tested to the extent it is being alluded to in this conversation.

Pakistan was created to provide a friendly environment to Muslims of the subcontinent for livelihood. And Pakistan strives for self-preservation for which it has invested so much in defensive applications. WE have problems with India over Kashmir - a cause for which have struggled and suffered for so long.

Let me tell you something - Pakistani centers of power are fully aware of the fact that a full-scale war between Pakistan and India won't be fruitful to either; both risk much destruction in the process even with China in the mix. Pakistani elected officials and even military officials have alluded to this fact at times - I have seen these talks and I can dig them out for you if necessary. I know a thing or two about Pakistani military might as well. I also study others just to keep myself informed.

And here I see you overreaching in your assumptions in personal capacity.

I do not wanted to be this blunt with you in this (friendly) conversation but you compelled me to.

"If (or when) Pakistan is to fight a war then Pakistan should fight the country responsible for instigating it and keep its objectives realistic."

I will reiterate that some matters are better dealt through alternatives at disposal and not through direct kinetic approaches - conventional wisdom if you will. Pakistan can, however, reach out to centers of power in USA and convey its concerns to them and seek potential solutions in relation. Pakistan have supported USA in Afghanistan and this dynamic can be tapped for the needful.

Members of this forum can get carried away in their emotions (passion) but it is very important for the state to be measured in its responses.

Instead of taking hard kill route again non Indian sats which provides support to Indian military in any hostility Pakistan should develop disruptive tech like lasers, jammers. In that China can be very helpful and as sat will not be destroyed then US will not be feeling attacked.

 

[LeGenD]

Instead of taking hard kill route again non Indian sats which provides support to Indian military in any hostility Pakistan should develop disruptive tech like lasers, jammers. In that China can be very helpful and as sat will not be destroyed then US will not be feeling attacked.

Good idea.

For knowledge sake - Modern spy satellites are typically rugged and resistant to lasers and other forms of radiation (important construction considerations). Americans learned much from their experiences back in the days of Cold War when Soviets adopted such measures to counter American spy satellites through non-kinetic approaches. Lasers can be employed to blind EO/IR payload for instance but the payload can be adequately shielded.

Kinetic approaches have appeal in theory because these guarantee destruction of even the most rugged of satellites in orbit. However, as I pointed out earlier, it might not be practical to attempt to snipe at each high value satellite under wartime conditions and also due to the fact that many commercial satellites are carrying (interesting) payloads. Too many satellites up there on top.

Pakistan should look into GPS jamming methods/techniques in my view (GPS denial environment in short). Although GPS satellites have anti-jamming measures in place but Electronic Warfare (EW) is our best shot to make our airspace complicated for targeting systems in general.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

@LeGenD , you are abusing your powers being a moderator and deleting my posts, which btw took a lot of time and thoughts to compile, just because it didn't go along with the narrative you hold.


As for conversation going a bit tangent, perhaps you need to take a deep breath, relax and ponder over your statement below:

I have seen these talks and I can dig them out for you if necessary. I know a thing or two about Pakistani military might as well. I also study others just to keep myself informed.

And here I see you overreaching in your assumptions in personal capacity.

I never wanted to be this blunt with you in this (friendly) conversation but perhaps this was necessary.

Look, lets keep our "personal experiences" and knowhow (if there is any to begin with) aside, and debate this in a civilized way.



I am not here to reply to your personal messages, defeat the whole objective to be on a public forum. You hold on to your ideas and debate here publicly and I will respond, I will make sure I will make time for you. Readers need to make up their own mind about matters concerning national security, and perhaps contribute with their own ideas as well.

 

[LeGenD]

@LeGenD , you are abusing your powers to be a moderator and deleting my posts, which btw took a lot of time and thoughts to compile, just because it didn't go along with the narrative you hold.

As for conversation going a bit tangent, perhaps you need to take a deep breath, relax and ponder over your statement below:







Look, lets keep our "personal experiences" and knowhow (if there is any to begin with) aside, and debate this in a civilized way.



I am not here to reply to your personal messages, defeat the whole objective to be on a public forum. You hold on to your ideas and debate here publicly and I will respond, I will make sure I will make time for you. Readers need to make up their own mind about matters concerning national security, and perhaps contribute with their own ideas as well.

Nonsense.

You took a jab at me in your previous post and I decided to remove it. You expect me to REPORT this kind of post when I can take care of it myself? I also explained to you why I removed your previous post (what is wrong in it) through another channel of communication which is equally appropriate. I do not want to expand on your jabs in this thread because this conversation must remain civil.

Do not try to FLAMEBAIT me in person. If you have nothing constructive to share then do not bother quoting me in this thread.

Take your complaints to GHQ.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Nonsense.

You took a jab at me in your previous post and I decided to remove it. You expect me to REPORT this kind of post when I can take care of it myself? I also explained to you why I removed your previous post (what is wrong in it) through another channel of communication which is equally appropriate. I do not want to your jabs in this thread for good reason.

Do not try to FLAMEBAIT me in person. If you have nothing constructive to share then do not bother quoting me in this thread.

Take your complaints to GHQ.

GET HOLD OF YOURSELF WILL YEA!


I am not here to debate with someone who is claiming his "personal links" in armed forces of Pakistan. what non sense. Debate on the matter at hand, not your personal connections , its laughable.

YOU are the on who had the itch to engage with me on other forum which started this debate. Collect your thought you young man.

 

[LeGenD]

GET HOLD OF YOURSELF WILL YEA!


I am not here to debate with someone who is claiming his "personal links" in armed forces of Pakistan. what non sense. Debate on the matter at hand, not your personal connections , its laughable.

YOU are the on who had the itch to engage with me on other forum which started this debate. Collect your thought you young man.

When did I tout "personal links" in armed forces of Pakistan?

This statement:

"I know a thing or two about Pakistani military might as well."

- is open to interpretation/indecisive/subjective/theoretical.

Do not put words in my mouth.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

When did I tout "personal links" in armed forces of Pakistan?

This statement:

I know a thing or two about Pakistani military might as well.

- is open to interpretation/indecisive/subjective/theoretical.

Do not put words in my mouth.

This is EXACTLY what its implies. There are no other interpretations. You CLAIMED you know about Pakistan military and then went on to dismiss my arguments as "personal thoughts".

Feel free to copy past your PM to me here and we can debate it in a civilized way. I suppose you took sometime to compile all that text. I will make time for you. Its a public debate forum, so lets keep it that way.

 

[Tomcats]

Discussion PORTED from following thread: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/paki...-patrol-aircraft.689180/page-10#post-12777591




What Beidou got to do with Pakistan own threat perception?

Its an option for Pakistan, whoes implementation at military level (conventional or strategic) by Pakistan is neither confirmed or denied. Pakistan and China have not entered in to an open military alliance, Unlike between American and India who have through BECA, came out in open and revealed their cards. There is no plausible deniability now as far as America is concerned. God forbid, any Indian missile land on Pakistani soil, it will be given that it has used "American state owned" eyes and ears in space. Let me remind you, its not American products SOLD to India but rather American state own resources at disposal to India to be used against Pakistan in any future conflict.

Your "head in the sand" approach will be a disaster for Pakistan national security and I sincerely hope our strategic thinkers are not holding the same views.

Threat spectrum have increased many folds, it needs to be acknowledged first and foremost. Anti satellite weapon systems should be a priority now. China already got such weapons and we need to look into this as well, for our own national security. In case of war, you have to poke eyes and ears against your national security, regardless where they are coming from and who they belong to.

You are not going to think of conseqences when your home is attacked do you? you will protect it with whatever you got!

As for ASAT capability, even India tested it not long ago, you are already lagging behind in this front. Bringing Chinese experiences will not do away the need for Pakistan to have such capability at its disposal.


As for American so called retaliation, you are in too much awe of yanks to come to that conclusion so quickly. If America is that trigger happy to go to war with a nuclear armed country over destruction of few satellites, which btw were used against Pakistan to begin with (in a conflict scenario) , then I said whole logic and escalation ladder theory goes out of the window. No Einstein, real world doesn't work like that. Your country, covertly have fought a war against American establishment in Afghanistan, that didn't start the war between Pakistan and America, you think some satellites will?


Ofcourse we cannot stop nations to make deal with each other, we just have to ensure that everyone understand the consequences and hence it is extremely important to take this threat of American space based system and its use by India very seriously, not just through diplomatic channels (As you suggested) but also through military capability, as diplomacy without the military muscle behind is useless.

BECA agreement negotiations have been going on a couple of years so it's no surprise as to what the deal is. The Indian Armed Forces were the main opponents to the deal but both the government and armed forces found common ground and compromised over the main issue they have right now which is the Chinese knocking on their doorstep. Though their main target is China, no doubt they will not hesitate to perhaps use it against Pakistan or other threats that they perceive. Legend summed it up perfectly that we should look to try and leverage our own deals with the US, not follow this mentality of 'you are with us or without us' the same mentality which plagued the US war on terror specifically in Afghanistan.
If a hypothetical Large scale conflict (Not only in Kashmir area but the whole border) occurred between both India and Pakistan with India being the instigator in such scenario, not only would India jeopardize a friendly relationship with the US but also face possible sanctions from them. It would also make the US very nervous as to what India's true intentions are the region aside from containing China and upset the balance. So targeting US assets while also at war with an opponent like India is surely to be the nail to our coffin rather than a benefit to us.
Edit: Forgot to add government w

 

[Verve]

And what do you think will happen if somebody in Pakistan make the call to strike at American satellites?

And what do you think will happen if China cyber attacks the American satellites supporting India in an attack on Pakistan?

 

[LeGenD]

And what do you think will happen if China cyber attacks the American satellites supporting India in an attack on Pakistan?

Non kinetic approaches may not invite harsh kinetic responses. This is also safer route to adopt.

Americans can be expected to reciprocate to cyber attacks in the same coin at minimum.