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BD export growth dips

bluesky

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12:00 AM, June 08, 2017 / LAST MODIFIED: 04:24 AM, June 08, 2017
Export growth dips
Brexit fallout, oil price fall, appreciation of taka against dollar among the reasons
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Staff Correspondent

Bangladesh's exports in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year stood at $31.79 billion, 4.68 percent lower than the target of $37 billion, Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data show.

However, compared to that of the same period in the last fiscal year, this year's export posted 3.67 percent growth, second lowest in a decade.

Prolonged political turmoil in 2013-15 and the collapse of the Rana Plaza building in 2013 pushed the country's export growth down to 3.4 percent in 2014-15, exporters say.

Apparels that account for Bangladesh's over 80 percent exports maintained an average 13 percent growth over the last 10 years.

As a result, export earnings this fiscal year were able to finance slightly over two-thirds of import payments and pushing the trade deficit up to $8.1 billion in the first 10 months of the fiscal year, Bangladesh Bank data show.

Four major factors affected the country's export growth this year, said Avijit Chowdhury, acting chief executive of the EPB.

They are Brexit and its impacts on exchange rate; political changes and the ongoing recession in the US; price fall of petroleum products in the Middle Eastern countries; and appreciation of Bangladesh currency against the greenback.

In addition, exporters pointed out two other reasons -- declining consumption of apparel items in the wake of rising spending for electronic gadgets and unhealthy price competition practised by both buyers and local manufacturers -- for the fall in export growth.

Garment exports to the US, Bangladesh's single largest export destination, fell by 6.8 percent in July-April period while to the UK, the third largest market, fell by 5.91 percent due to Brexit.

Apparel exporters said a silent recession was going on in their main export destinations in Europe in the run up to the general elections in four major economies this year.

France and the Netherlands have already had their elections while the UK goes to polls today and Germany on September 24. During this period, retailers and consumers wait for the new government's policy decisions, exporters said.

Exports also declined for the imposition of a ban on direct cargo flight from Bangladesh to the UK and Germany last year, Avijit said.

Bangladeshi taka appreciated nearly by 8 percent against US dollar for which exporters are getting less against exports, he said. “We might not achieve the target this fiscal year, but maybe we will be close.”

Garment shipment, which contributes over 82 percent to the national export, declined further during July-May period and grew only by 2.16 percent to $25.62 billion.

In July-May period, export of knitwear rose 4.91 percent to $12.50 billion and woven export growth declined by 0.33 percent year-on-year to $13.11 billion.

The declining trend in apparel export has broken the last 10 years' growth record, said Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, vice-president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

Babu said although garment export volume rose by nearly 9 percent in July-May period, the earning did not. “That means prices of Bangladeshi apparel items declined further worldwide,” Babu said.

Moreover, consumption of apparel items declined nearly 7 percent in 2016 and nearly 8 percent in 2015 as western consumers are more interested to spend money for electronic gadgets rather than apparel items, he said.

Babu also blamed the unhealthy price competition by both buyers and local manufacturers. “If such a down trend of prices continues, export growth will fall further in near future.”

He said many small and medium factories had been shut down over the last few years as they failed to comply with the inspections by the Accord and Alliance.

Apart from apparels, frozen and live fish export declined by 1.89 percent to $472.85 million and terry towel by 8.6 percent to $40.41 million.
 
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Given the current trend it is very much unlikely to achieve 60 billion dollar target by 2021. BD would be lucky if it achieve 50 billion by that time.
I think, every item has its export limit. This is why I think, the industrialists should be encouraged to build new industries that manufacture other items that can be locally consumed or exported. I think, steel making is a hell of an industry that can make a difference in the future. Big point, however, is to follow technical specifications given by the importing countries. Today, it is the labor intensive textile. But, the future expansion must be capital intensive ones. Steel is both labor and capital intensive one.
 
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I think, steel making is a hell of an industry that can make a difference in the future. Big point, however, is to follow technical specifications given by the importing countries. Today, it is the labor intensive textile. But, the future expansion must be capital intensive ones. Steel is both labor and capital intensive one.

Best of luck with Chinese overcapacity.
 
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I think, every item has its export limit. This is why I think, the industrialists should be encouraged to build new industries that manufacture other items that can be locally consumed or exported. I think, steel making is a hell of an industry that can make a difference in the future. Big point, however, is to follow technical specifications given by the importing countries. Today, it is the labor intensive textile. But, the future expansion must be capital intensive ones. Steel is both labor and capital intensive one.

Steel making is good, but the capital outlay will be huge. Local steel rod is mostly made from imported billets, but a significant portion of it comes from ship-breaking scrap.

I thought we were following Korean and Chinese development model.

Diversification of export basket in our case could be best achieved with those sectors that involve the lowest capital, highest value addition and labor component, like garments. Such as shoes, leather goods, china/sanitary-ware, toys and small household electrics (irons, fans, toasters, blenders etc., like what Walton makes).

This is because our labor is cheapest, i.e. half that of even India.

But I agree, shipbuilding should also be encouraged, although the market is finicky.

And pharma is always a good bet- the number of people needing medicine is not getting smaller.
 
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Best of luck with Chinese overcapacity.

I was just making a point by citing the example of making steel. Yes, China has a glut of production after the euphoria evaporated after the Olympics. However, China expanded its steel industry when Japan had a glut one time.

BD is a country that wants to build its physical infrastructure. It means, it will need its steel production to go up. Whatever in excess of its domestic demand can be exported with a lowered price. No country can develop without first securing the production of a few basic materials such as steel and cement. BD has to face international competition by lowering the cost because of its low labor costs.
 
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BD is a country that wants to build its physical infrastructure. It means, it will need its steel production to go up. Whatever in excess of its domestic demand can be exported with a lowered price. No country can develop without first securing the production of a few basis materials such as steel and cement. BD has to face international competition by lowering the cost because of its low labor costs.

Ain't going to happen with steel. The jobs return on steel is also quite poor for the capital investment (both threshold and ramp) required. All major companies worldwide have their hands full internally for the next cpl decades and if its a public company BD wants to create, thats even worse...hope I don't need to tell you why. BD private companies cannot afford the lag time in haphazard ROI of steel sector given the razor thin buffers your private sector has in the first place (Esp for capital intensive industry). You are better off promoting more value added manufacturing and import the steel from world market....threshold, ramp and jobs ratio is far better in those....even for purely internal consumption.
 
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Ain't going to happen with steel. The jobs return on steel is also quite poor for the capital investment (both threshold and ramp) required. All major companies worldwide have their hands full internally for the next cpl decades and if its a public company BD wants to create, thats even worse...hope I don't need to tell you why. BD private companies cannot afford the lag time in haphazard ROI of steel sector given the razor thin buffers your private sector has in the first place (Esp for capital intensive industry). You are better off promoting more value added manufacturing and import the steel from world market....threshold, ramp and jobs ratio is far better in those....even for purely internal consumption.

But Chinese steel makers think differently. I guess they know better than you.
http://www.thedailystar.net/business/kunming-steel-talks-bsrm-invest-22b-1403413

I was just making a point by citing the example of making steel. Yes, China has a glut of production after the euphoria evaporated after the Olympics. However, China expanded its steel industry when Japan had a glut one time.

BD is a country that wants to build its physical infrastructure. It means, it will need its steel production to go up. Whatever in excess of its domestic demand can be exported with a lowered price. No country can develop without first securing the production of a few basis materials such as steel and cement. BD has to face international competition by lowering the cost because of its low labor costs.

It is only tip of the iceberg. We just started investing on physical infrastructure and the demand for steel will increase many folds in coming years. That is why everybody is rushing to invest billions in steel.
 
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But Chinese steel makers think differently. I guess they know better than you.
http://www.thedailystar.net/business/kunming-steel-talks-bsrm-invest-22b-1403413



It is only tip of the iceberg. We just started investing on physical infrastructure and the demand for steel will increase many folds in coming years. That is why everybody is rushing to invest billions in steel.

Tell me if something actually comes to fruition. 2 million ton production is also a tiny amount. Want to know how many jobs that will create? Next to 0...esp compared to MVA industry with same amount of investment.
 
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Tell me if something actually comes to fruition. 2 million ton production is also a tiny amount. Want to know how many jobs that will create? Next to 0...esp compared to MVA industry with same amount of investment.

Chinese just dont fck around. And BSRM is the biggest steel maker in Bangladesh. So rest assured.
 
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Ain't going to happen with steel. The jobs return on steel is also quite poor for the capital investment (both threshold and ramp) required. All major companies worldwide have their hands full internally for the next cpl decades and if its a public company BD wants to create, thats even worse...hope I don't need to tell you why. BD private companies cannot afford the lag time in haphazard ROI of steel sector given the razor thin buffers your private sector has in the first place (Esp for capital intensive industry). You are better off promoting more value added manufacturing and import the steel from world market....threshold, ramp and jobs ratio is far better in those....even for purely internal consumption.
We don't have iron mines in the first place to extract ores and produce steel for cheap. Most of countries need however is satisfied with the ship breaking industries input.
If we need more steel we would be better off buying em from china than bringing the materials from them to produce in our country..,, I only see rising cost with that.
 
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We don't have iron mines in the first place to extract ores and produce steel for cheap. Most of countries need however is satisfied with the ship breaking industries input.
If we need more steel we would be better off buying em from china than bringing the materials from them to produce in our country..,, I only see rising cost with that.

Can import from India (iron ore)...its not a huge issue but yes that will add cost depending on what tariff BD govt puts on that. Importing from further away say Australia will add to it too.

Anyway if China sees some merit in this project, best of luck to it. BD steel demand is around 4 - 5 million tons per year according to WSA. I am just of the belief BD has to focus on getting most amount of jobs (and ASAP) per dollar of investment....and leave top level capital heavy industries fully to the private sector/private banking. BD credit-GDP ratio is already stuck at 40% for last 5 years or so....there is scarcity here that must be something that the govt attaches a lot of importance to when intervening in the economy for long term projects.
 
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World economy is experiencing low growth but saying that Let's not write off BD. Export is not everything.

Our economy has an internal growth dynamics of its own. Our GDP will be driven by internal growth. Export is a good measure but it does not give the whole picture.
 
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Ain't going to happen with steel. The jobs return on steel is also quite poor for the capital investment (both threshold and ramp) required. All major companies worldwide have their hands full internally for the next cpl decades and if its a public company BD wants to create, thats even worse...hope I don't need to tell you why. BD private companies cannot afford the lag time in haphazard ROI of steel sector given the razor thin buffers your private sector has in the first place (Esp for capital intensive industry). You are better off promoting more value added manufacturing and import the steel from world market....threshold, ramp and jobs ratio is far better in those....even for purely internal consumption.

Lol, there's a 20% regulatory duty and 15% VAT on crude steel import, no way import is the solution for Bangladesh. This is why the local players are rapidly expanding their capacities. At least 90% of the domestic demand for crude steel is met by the local production. I believe we will reach self-sufficiency by 2018.

Hey it will finally end the many years of BD being the largest population that is not mentioned in World Steel association figures ;)

https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/j...-4ac5445c5df8/World+Steel+in+Figures+2017.pdf

You can finally be mentioned, surpassing countries like Oman and Portugal with 2 million per year output.......if it goes through.

WSA doesn't show the overall figure for worldwide steel production.
 
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