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BBC: India growth figures baffle economists

kawaraj

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The Indian economy grew by 7.5% between October and December compared with the same period a year earlier, official figures say.

But there was confusion regarding the statistics after the way in which the gross domestic product (GDP) figure was calculated was changed.

Economists warned the figures needed to be treated with caution.

Growth for the previous three months was also revised up sharply to 8.2% from an earlier figure of 5.3%.

And India's statistics ministry revised up its forecast for annual economic growth to 7.4% for the year to the end of March.

That compared with a previous forecast of 6.9% using the new formula, and 4.7% before the revised formula was introduced.

The country's new way of calculating GDP has baffled analysts since its release last month.

India said the new formula is closer to international standards. But analysts say the new data does not correlate with other economic indicators, including industrial and factory production.

Slowdown
Some economists have said the latest figures should be "taken with a pinch of salt" and expressed scepticism over the figures at a time when India's central bank has been talking about a slowdown.

Jyotinder Kaul, principal economist at HDFC Bank, also questioned the "credibility" of the numbers.

"There is clearly the need to look at the credibility associated with these numbers. Nothing on the ground has substantially changed to show that we are out of the trenches," he said.

"My view is that the economy is certainly making its way up, but none of the other indicators suggest that we have completely made our way out of the ditches."

India was believed to be in the midst of the worst economic slowdown since the 1980s with below 5% growth, a level that was considered to be too low to generate jobs for millions of young people.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won last year's general elections on a promise to reform and revive the economy and attract much-needed foreign investment.

BBC News - India growth figures baffle economists
 
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Those figures don't look very Kosher to me.
 
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Quote

"India said the new formula is closer to international standards. But analysts say the new data does not correlate with other economic indicators, including industrial and factory production.

Slowdown
Some economists have said the latest figures should be "taken with a pinch of salt" and expressed scepticism over the figures at a time when India's central bank has been talking about a slowdown.

Jyotinder Kaul, principal economist at HDFC Bank, also questioned the "credibility" of the numbers."
 
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Rate of growth is only going up and will keep increasing for a few years until there is some major global crisis.
 
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I have been tracking Econ data, I am so surprised to see numbers has been fanned to such extent. When all trade data, industrial output data, and infrastructure output data etc are not heading up, BJP gov still manage to accomplish Econ miracle.

Bravo Modi, fabrication data economy is admirable.
 
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Indian has introduced a new formula of its own to show the growth rate and obviously that formula favors india more, and now all is well in india no poverty all of the sudden in one year and growth shoot up ...wow pakistan should adopt that amazing formula
 
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I have been tracking Econ data, I am so surprised to see numbers has been fanned to such extent. When all trade data, industrial output data, and infrastructure output data etc are not heading up, BJP gov still manage to accomplish Econ miracle.

Bravo Modi, fabrication data economy is admirable.

Even I had the same doubts. But actually the newer methods used are more closer reflection of the economy. They have revised the base year, included sectors not previously accounted for and used compliance methods in line with International methods.

BTW, his most ardent critics including the former FM are accepting these changes as necessary and a welcome one. Also, this same BJP government has revised GDP figures in UPA time as well. It is more to do with the new methods rather than any vested interests.

So keep changing the equations and you will have changing figures. Okay.

Isn't it a sweeping statement? Have you read the official government documents yet (will be released after the end of this fiscal). Why not wait till then and then raise the criticism?

And being a Financial professional myself, I can safely tell you that they haven't done any earth shattering fraud/ manipulation etc. per se. Whatever is done was long due.
 
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So keep changing the equations and you will have changing figures. Okay.
no country can shoot the growth that much in a matter of just one year ... this is out of my mind how they do that, modi can get a fame from this but the ground reality wont change a bit and poor would become more poor, this is amazing the whole world is stunned by the growth rate , plus you have to know that they have to compete with china so this is short cut for that i guess .
 
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Even I had the same doubts. But actually the newer methods used are more closer reflection of the economy. They have revised the base year, included sectors not previously accounted for and used compliance methods in line with International methods.

BTW, his most ardent critics including the former FM are accepting these changes as necessary and a welcome one. Also, this same BJP government has revised GDP figures in UPA time as well. It is more to do with the new methods rather than any vested interests.



Isn't it a sweeping statement? Have you read the official government documents yet (will be released after the end of this fiscal). Why not wait till then and then raise the criticism?

And being a Financial professional myself, I can safely tell you that they haven't done any earth shattering fraud/ manipulation etc. per se. Whatever is done was long due.

I'd rather wait for external analysis and input.
 
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Indian has introduced a new formula of its own to show the growth rate and obviously that formula favors india more, and now all is well in india no poverty all of the sudden in one year and growth shoot up ...wow pakistan should adopt that amazing formula

So keep changing the equations and you will have changing figures. Okay.

no country can shoot the growth that much in a matter of just one year ... this is out of my mind how they do that, modi can get a fame from this but the ground reality wont change a bit and poor would become more poor, this is amazing the whole world is stunned by the growth rate , plus you have to know that they have to compete with china so this is short cut for that i guess .

India finally decided to measure its economy properly—and GDP growth soared

India finally decided to measure its economy properly—and GDP growth soared – Quartz

Base year revision is nothing new. It is usually done every 5 years. Countries have done it in the past, India is not the first one
 
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