Bangladesh on cusp of industrial revolution, HSBC says in Bangladesh Market Insights 2021

[PoondolotoPandalum]

Btw Bilal bhai

Do you think there is a role for NGOs like BRAC, to bridge our skills shortages? In the last 50 years, the challenge was to get enough kids to be able to read. But now they need to learn, as opposed to memorizing stuff by heart. We need critical thinkers and future innovators.

In the past, it was the NGOs that did a lot of the hard work when it came to illiteracy eradication, family planning, health, etc. Bangladesh as a state had very few resources, which was sort of a blessing in disguise. It prompted our NGOs to come up with fairly innovative social engineering policies, which were implemented from a grass-roots level, as opposed to some top-down dictate. As much as I know, Bangladesh is fairly unique at that.

I think BRAC already has several ongoing schemes aimed at better access to skills development. But we need many more.

BRAC et al should start to think about reconfiguring their operations for the next stage of Bangladesh's development. We face new challenges now. Just surviving isn't good enough. We need to strive.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

That should become the wake up call for BD government. They need to have a level of urgency any responsible government should have with that alarming number.

Indonesia started having trade deficit when its GDP has almost reached 1 trillion USD in 2011. The reason our GDP is still around 1 trillion USD until this day is due to the weakening of our currency, Rupiah, from around 10,000 Rupiah per USD around that year into 14.000-15.000 Rupiah per USD since 2012-until Today (gradually weakening). This is the effect of market liberalization when ASEAN countries make FTA with China and become effective since the start of 2010 for Indonesia.

The highest trade deficit we have is around 8 billion USD in 2018. This number has brought the administration focuses on the economy than any other else. This is why there is no foreign loan for defense procurement during 2018 as we have seen the momentum of surging trade deficit since the start of 2018. Later in 2019 the foreign loan for defense procurement is so small and come back to nothing in 2020.

This is why I suggest BD to focus on the economy first until 2030 and just forget about buying 4 billion USD of Eurofighter. Concentrate on the economy and also education and then BD better acquire KF 21 (InshaAllah the program will be success) in 2030 where this fighter is planned to keep evolving until it posses 6 generation fighter capability as recent news reveals

Yes, devaluing currency to spur export growth (by making these cheaper) and making imports expensive is an important policy tool. Pakistan struggled in the past when it tried to artificially keep the rupee's value elevated to prevent a torrent of inflation that usually accompanies bouts of devaluations. In the retrospect, it was a flawed policy that ate up foreign reserves while attempting to finance the trade deficit and then we ended up with the IMF (again and again) which asked us to pass through a cycle of painful adjustment. The adjustment cycle for macroeconomic stabilization dampens growth, results in joblessness, and declines people's purchasing power (the same thing all over again to avert which PKR was not devalued). We appear to be learning our lesson by allowing market forces to decide the value of PKR. Let's see if the imports plateau at some point while exports get a shot in the arm or not. BD can know soon enough (in 1-2 years) from our experience.

 

[bluesky]

Watch the below video and then speak after you know a few basic facts about BD electronic engineering capabilities:

BD does not have to make everything at this time, just enough to keep it's 7-8% per year GDP growth show on the road. Some of the others will come in due course.

I have watched WALTON before. It is producing a few Home Electronics goods. I will certainly say it is an achievement.

But to fill up an Ocean needs a vast amount of water. A tiny thing here and there cannot fill it. BD has a vast population, unlike Singapore or Hongkong. It has to produce those mechanical goods that can produce other mechanical or non-mechanical goods.

This is possible for a country with a large population. However, BD produces much less than even these two entities produce the mechanical/ technology products. I am talking about machine tools, parts, machines, motors, engines and things like them.

BD is 200 years behind them. BD GDP figure is only something superficial at the command of Hasina Bibi. The figures are not reliable. IMF and WB will stop endorsing the GDP growths as claimed by BD when it fails to pay back the loan money.

These loan sharks just want BD or any underdeveloped country to borrow and invest in sectors that do not produce goods. Ask them for money to industrialize or setting factories, they will decline. They just do not have the policy to support industrialization.

 

[Paul2]

I think Walton has a fairly modern automatic metal-casting plant in one of their factories, probably the only type of its kind in Bangladesh. They allegedly hire actual process engineers to optimize their operations, using computational fluid dynamics. I was really surprised to hear about that for a Bangladeshi factory!

Metal Castings is one of the oldest manufacturing techniques known to man. We've been doing it for 6000 years or more. It's only in the past 60 years, we began to treat it as a science, rather than an art form. This is one of the reasons why metal castings traditionally had a low reputation in the industry, relative to forgings, machining, etc. This is why turbine blades used to be forged in the past because casting technology back then was not advanced enough, to satisfy the required material properties. Only fairly recently (the 80s), with the advent of mono-crystalline turbine blades, did castings replaced forgings, for the manufacturing of critical mechanical components. Which ment you could make very complex shapes (3D aerodynamic design), which was not possible previously through forging.

Believe me, there are many foundries in the UK that operate with victorian era technology that is hemorrhaging money. Because a high % of the castings they make fail quality control.

For mass production of high-value engineering components, automated forms of casting are the best approach. You want to eliminate any possibility of human errors, of which there are a lot of in most traditional casting practices. Automated casting plants use automatic pouring of liquid metal, in a very controlled manner, in order to minimize surface turbulence, which has a big impact on the mechanical integrity of the final solidified casting.

On the other hand, traditional artisan castings, like the one you've shown, can be useful for domestic items. Bangladesh has a huge domestic market for such items. So it can offer plenty of employment opportunities. Women do the knitwork, men can do the metalwork

Someone told me one of the reasons why Bangladesh has so many rickshaw drivers, is the inability of the industry to absorb our humongous population. Which probably has some truth to it. We need to think of creative ways of producing new, more productive employment opportunities

One tidbit from me. All light industries depend on component inputs. All smart parts in your smartphone, which amount to far more than ICs require very expensive plants to produce. Even a tiny 1 cent vibrator inside needs a freaking expensive equipment to make.

So far, I know of only few smartphone component makers in Bangladesh. There is one Taiwanese microlens maker for smartphones, and 1 precision molding company that is just starting. BRB tried to make connectors, and such things.

Even in Vietnam, there are very few makers, most of which are Taiwanese chasing Apple relocation.

After working in electronics for almost 10 years, I can say 90% of the process is dumb stupid, and can be done in a shed in Africa. The remaining 9% is progressively harder. And for the remaining 1% you can spend your whole life on, and not achieve anything.

For coming future, I don't see much of the supply chain coming to BD. I myself explored the topic of what it takes to setup a factory with investment project subsidy, and honestly, it made me to scratch my head. It's easier in Vietnam, you just bribe the biggest party member in the province, and your road is open. In BD, I think, people don't want your money, even this way. Most other nations will kill for such easy investor money that BD has.

I see the most likely way to go will be for existing Bangladeshi large industrial groups to use their own capital to do everything themselves. It will be slow, and painful, and very likely you will see Vietnam overtaking you while they do so.

 

[Black Tornado]

To my knowledge, they don't manufacture cellphones from scratch even in India, only assembly.

They do buy components from local suppliers in India as much as possible to keeps costs low after tarrifs on electronics components were increased, still most of high values components remain imported like chipsets and displays etc.

Micromax says their phones have 60% Indian made composition, which means a phone in India can be as of now 60% Indian and 40% imported, hopefully will change.

 

[bluesky]

I'd say in this respect Pakistan is ahead of Bangladesh and their foundry expertise is very good at a basic level (roadside shops even). While I realize that similar shops do exist in Bangladesh too, but I am amazed how backward integrated their stuff is in some cases (in this case aluminum for cookware is rolled from melted ingot). Have a gander please. This guy's channel has several such videos.

Here in this Forum, the issue is our dude @UKBengali has little knowledge about foundries, and he does not think it is needed in BD.

 

[Chakar The Great]

Best wishes to Bangladesh.

 

[UKBengali]

I have watched WALTON before. It is producing a few Home Electronics goods. I will certainly say it is an achievement.

But to fill up an Ocean needs a vast amount of water. A tiny thing here and there cannot fill it. BD has a vast population, unlike Singapore or Hongkong. It has to produce those mechanical goods that can produce other mechanical or non-mechanical goods.

This is possible for a country with a large population. However, BD produces much less than even these two entities produce the mechanical/ technology products. I am talking about machine tools, parts, machines, motors, engines and things like them.

BD is 200 years behind them. BD GDP figure is only something superficial at the command of Hasina Bibi. The figures are not reliable. IMF and WB will stop endorsing the GDP growths as claimed by BD when it fails to pay back the loan money.

These loan sharks just want BD or any underdeveloped country to borrow and invest in sectors that do not produce goods. Ask them for money to industrialize or setting factories, they will decline. They just do not have the policy to support industrialization.

One problem with your theory is that BD does not borrow from those institutions.

You think the Russians would have given a 12 billion US dollar loan to BD for Roopur without looking at BD capacity to pay it back? Even now others are jumping in with offers to pay for a 2nd nuclear power plant by 2030.

 

[SMX 3.0]

Two local manufacturers (namely Walton and another one I forget) make cellphone motherboards from scratch (as well as custom designed circuit boards) for locally made laptops, tablets and even their smart fridges/aircons. The pick and place SMT/SMD assemblers for those operations cost several crores each. To my knowledge, they don't manufacture cellphones from scratch even in India, only assembly.

That's not accurate.

All major mobile phone manufacturers- Samsung, Foxxcon, Wistron, Oppo, Micromax etc have SMT PCBA lines in India. Samsung, which was doing PCBA from 2006 has set up the world's largest mobile phone manufacturing facility in Delhi NCR.

Samsung has already started production of smartphone displays in their new $700 million Noida plant. Another facility for displays is being set up by Chinese firm TCL in Tirupati.

Also, for the two local manufacturers of BD you mentioned doing PCBA, the volume is rather small in comparison with India. I don't see how they are comparable to India's ~$24 billion mobile phone manufacturing sector.

 

[UKBengali]

That's not accurate.

All major mobile phone manufacturers- Samsung, Foxxcon, Wistron, Oppo, Micromax etc have SMT PCBA lines in India. Samsung, which was doing PCBA from 2006 has set up the world's largest mobile phone manufacturing facility in Delhi NCR.

View attachment 769606

Samsung has already started production of smartphone displays in their new $700 million Noida plant. Another facility for displays is being set up by Chinese firm TCL in Tirupati.

Also, for the two local manufacturers of BD you mentioned doing PCBA, the volume is rather small in comparison with India. I don't see how they are comparable to India's ~$24 billion mobile phone manufacturing sector.

Yes but they are foreign brands and not Indian ones.

BD has domestic companies that are doing this.

 

[SMX 3.0]

Yes but they are foreign brands and not Indian ones.

BD has domestic companies that are doing this.

Micromax isn't a foreign firm, same with Lava. There are India EMS providers as well manufacturing PCBs for non- Indian firms. Meanwhile Foxxcon- a Taiwanese manufacturer- does PCBA in India for Xiaomi, a Chinese OEM. It's complicated.

Anyway, it's not the product of their own R&D in case of Bangladeshi manufacturers & possibly Indian as well (doesn't have great opinion of Micromax) so the origin argument is pointless. The value-added is the same in both cases.

 

[UKBengali]

Micromax isn't a foreign firm, same with Lava. There are India EMS providers as well manufacturing PCBs for non- Indian firms. Meanwhile Foxxcon- a Taiwanese manufacturer- does PCBA in India for Xiaomi, a Chinese OEM. It's complicated.

Anyway, it's not the product of their own R&D in case of Bangladeshi manufacturers & possibly Indian as well (doesn't have great opinion of Micromax) so the origin argument is pointless. The value-added is the same in both cases.

Actually there is a lot of R&D in Walton.

Engineers are conducting research of the next-gen Quantum Dot Plus tech.

Last I heard 28 patents for LED TVs were awaiting approval.

BD companies may not be large enough to create brand new technology but they have reached the level where they can improve the pre-existing technology.

Walton designs and manufacturers it’s own 4K LED panel. I am sure that no Indian company does the same.

No Indian company comes anywhere close to Walton in the TV sector right now.

 

[SMX 3.0]

Actually there is a lot of R&D in Walton.

Hmm...there isn't.

The R&D expenditure is mentioned in their annual report & is rather pathetic ($350 K). Even below the industry norm of 2% of revenue being spend on R&D .

Even if they spend industry stand of 2%, their R&D expendituture it will be around $8 million which still isn't enough for anything.

Exactly why you would only ''hear'' about patents, and wouldn't see records of them existing.

Walton designs and manufacturers it’s own 4K LED panel. I am sure that no Indian company does the same.

Nope, they don't design (with $350K? definitely no). What they does is open cell assembly of LCD panels imported which is the same being done in India right now. See open cells being listed as ''raw material'' in the Annual report.

Look at the value addition for TV. 10%. Does this look like a display fab to you?

Walton sells around 500K TVs an year, worth around $84 million.

I see no reason for them to invest in a display fab worth hundreds of millions of dollars for a less than $100 million revenue sector. Presently that field (LCD displays) is dominated by LG & Samsung with some Chinese competition.

Samsung invested $700 million for its display unit in Noida. Such expenditure is not exactly needed for Walton given the low volumes.

Samsung's display arm begins production of mobile display panels in Noida - ET Telecom

Samsung Smartphones: Samsung currently makes more than 70 percent of the total display products used in TVs, mobile phones, tablets, watches, etc., in the world in South Korea, Vietnam and China.

telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[UKBengali]

Hmm...there isn't.

The R&D expenditure is mentioned in their annual report & is rather pathetic ($350 K). Even below the industry norm of 2% of revenue being spend on R&D .

Even if they spend industry stand of 2%, their R&D expendituture it will be around $8 million which still isn't enough for anything.

View attachment 769618

Exactly why you would only ''hear'' about patents, and wouldn't see records of them existing.



Nope, they don't design (with $350K? definitely no). What they does is open cell assembly of LCD panels imported which is the same being done in India right now. See open cells being listed as ''raw material'' in the Annual report.

View attachment 769619

Look at the value addition for TV. 10%. Does this look like a display fab to you?

View attachment 769621

Walton sells around 500K TVs an year, worth around $84 million.

View attachment 769624

I see no reason for them to invest in a display fab worth hundreds of millions of dollars for a less than $100 million revenue sector. Presently that field (LCD displays) is dominated by LG & Samsung with some Chinese competition.

Samsung invested $700 million for its display unit in Noida. Such expenditure is not exactly needed for Walton given the low volumes.

Samsung's display arm begins production of mobile display panels in Noida - ET Telecom

Samsung Smartphones: Samsung currently makes more than 70 percent of the total display products used in TVs, mobile phones, tablets, watches, etc., in the world in South Korea, Vietnam and China.

telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com

No Walton does not import LCD panels. It manufactures them from scratch. There are plenty of videos available about this.
Walton is an OEM supplier of TVs into Europe and so come back when India is at the same level.

PS - Walton revenues have grown from 380 million US dollars in 2017 to 830 million US dollars in 2021. It is growing massively both in the home and export markets - both developing and developed markets like Germany and USA.

 

[SMX 3.0]

No Walton does not import LCD panels. It manufactures them from scratch. There are plenty of videos available about this.
Walton is an OEM supplier of TVs into Europe and come back when India is at the same level.

I am not sure what's more reliable: ''plenty of videos'' or their very own annual report. For now I would go with the latter.

And I don't think TV exports worth $600K to God-knows-where is even worth mentioning, but anyway...

You can find a better source than ''videos'' to substantiate your claims.