China’s military exercises and B-1B flights in South China Sea
On December 28th, Hainan Maritime Safety Administration issued four separate navigational warnings. The notices read that there will be military exercises in four areas in the South China Sea from 0800 hours on December 29th to 1600 hours on January 7th Beijing time.
A PLA insider told the
South China Morning Post that the exercises had been planned for more than a month. “These exercises are arranged according to the PLA’s annual training plan signed by Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Mission, in January”, said the source.
However, a closer look at the notices as well as some recent developments in the South China Sea suggests that at least two simultaneous exercises were triggered by recent B-1B flights in the region.
In fact, there are FOUR separate navigational warnings, not three as reported by the South China Morning Post and some Chinese sites.
The missing notice is HN0126, which was posted on Hainan Maritime Safety Administration’s website on December 28th, 2020. (You can find it
here).
The writer at South China Morning Post didn’t aware of this because it wasn’t posted on China Maritime Safety Administration’s website like three notices HN0127, HN0128, and HN0129.
HN0126 is significant because it gives us some clues about the purposes of the ongoing military exercises.
As you can see on this map, there are four warning areas. The largest (HN0128) is likely reserved for Shandong aircraft carrier, which left Yulin naval base on December 29.
HN0126 and HN0129 are the two most interesting areas because of their relevance to recent B-1B flights in the South China Sea.
According to my sources, the Pacific Air Forces has conducted two Bomber Task Force missions over the South China Sea in the last 7 days.
On December 23, two B-1B bombers flew near the Paracel Islands, Hainan, and the Spratly Islands. The mission was significant because the bombers flew very close to the Paracel Islands and Hainan, where China’s first domestically-built aircraft carrier just arrived one day earlier, on December 22.
According to the flight path, the bombers flew closer than 25 nautical miles to Qilian Yu subgroup in the Paracel Islands at one point. They also threatened Yulin naval base at a distance of less than 100 nautical miles.
Five days later, on December 28, another identical mission was conducted with the same flight path. According to my sources, two J-11B fighters at Woody Island were scrambled to monitor on each occasion.
Those missions are definitely seen by Beijing as provocative moves. Furthermore, the exercises were announced at very short notice on December 28, immediately after the second B-1B mission. Usually, notices for long-planned exercises are issued several days earlier.
Now let’s take a look at the following maps, you can see two exercises (HN0126 and HN0129) are located directly across from the B-1B flight path.
Another angle helps me to guess that HN0126 and HN0129 are areas for air defense exercises.
In fact, some Type 052D destroyers and 054A frigates appeared in the exercise areas, according to satellite images captured on December 28.
Equipped with HHQ-9 (052D) and HHQ-16 (054A) SAMs, they serve as a warning to further B-1B flights near Sanya and Paracel Islands. But I can’t help thinking about how it will play out if Pacific Air Forces authorize another B-1B mission in the next several days.
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