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CAIRO (Reuters) - If there was any hope left that the generals who overthrew Egypt's elected president six months ago might ease the state's crackdown on dissent, a suicide bomb that ripped through a police station on Tuesday may have destroyed it.
The most populous Arab country enters the new year with deeper divisions in its society and more bloodshed on its streets than at any point in its modern history. The prospects for democracy appear bleaker with every bomb blast and arrest.
The army-backed government says it will shepherd Egypt back to democracy and points out that the state defeated Islamist militants when they last launched waves of attacks in the 1990s. But this time around there are more weapons and harder ideologies, and a bitter example of a failed democratic experiment to toughen positions on all sides.
Like much of the recent violence, the bombing that killed 16 people on Tuesday was bloodier than all but the very worst attacks of the 1990s. The tactic of using suicide bombers to hit security forces is more familiar to Iraq or Syria than to Egypt, which for all its history of militancy is one of the few big Arab states that has never experienced a modern civil war.
Following Tuesday's attack, Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi declared the Brotherhood a terrorist organization.
Meanwhile, the frequency of attacks suggests militants are taking centre stage within the Islamist movement, further diminishing hopes of the state reaching an accommodation with moderates and strengthening the hawks in government.
One consequence could be to increase the chances of General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi becoming Egypt's next president.
MOST SOLDIERS KILLED SINCE '73 WAR
Crowds that gathered outside the compound hit in Tuesday's attack to show support for the security forces brandished Sisi's portrait.
A conservative estimate puts the overall death toll since Mursi's fall at well over 1,500. Most of those killed were Mursi supporters, including hundreds gunned down when the security forces cleared a protest vigil outside a Cairo mosque.
At least 350 members of the security forces have also been killed in bombings and shootings since Mursi's downfall. The state has declared them martyrs of a war on terror.
The army has suffered its greatest casualties since the 1973 Middle East war, most of them in the Sinai Peninsula, where the most heavily armed Islamists are based.
The blood spilt since Mursi's downfall has evoked comparisons with Algeria - a country pitched into a decade of civil war in 1991 when its army aborted an experiment with democracy because Islamists looked set to win power.
But as the attacks spread beyond the Sinai Peninsula, the risks are compounded by the large quantities of weapons smuggled in from neighboring Libya since the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, in a war that saw his arsenals looted by rebels.
"This particular incident shows that the group operating in Mansoura is very organized, well equipped and capable," said Mustapha Kamel Al-Sayid, a professor of politicalscience at Cairo University, referring to the Nile Valley town where Tuesday's attack took place.
"This points to the difficulty of any kind of compromise between the government and Islamist groups."
Analysis: As Egypt hardliners gain, scope for conflict grows| Reuters
The most populous Arab country enters the new year with deeper divisions in its society and more bloodshed on its streets than at any point in its modern history. The prospects for democracy appear bleaker with every bomb blast and arrest.
The army-backed government says it will shepherd Egypt back to democracy and points out that the state defeated Islamist militants when they last launched waves of attacks in the 1990s. But this time around there are more weapons and harder ideologies, and a bitter example of a failed democratic experiment to toughen positions on all sides.
Like much of the recent violence, the bombing that killed 16 people on Tuesday was bloodier than all but the very worst attacks of the 1990s. The tactic of using suicide bombers to hit security forces is more familiar to Iraq or Syria than to Egypt, which for all its history of militancy is one of the few big Arab states that has never experienced a modern civil war.
Following Tuesday's attack, Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi declared the Brotherhood a terrorist organization.
Meanwhile, the frequency of attacks suggests militants are taking centre stage within the Islamist movement, further diminishing hopes of the state reaching an accommodation with moderates and strengthening the hawks in government.
One consequence could be to increase the chances of General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi becoming Egypt's next president.
MOST SOLDIERS KILLED SINCE '73 WAR
Crowds that gathered outside the compound hit in Tuesday's attack to show support for the security forces brandished Sisi's portrait.
A conservative estimate puts the overall death toll since Mursi's fall at well over 1,500. Most of those killed were Mursi supporters, including hundreds gunned down when the security forces cleared a protest vigil outside a Cairo mosque.
At least 350 members of the security forces have also been killed in bombings and shootings since Mursi's downfall. The state has declared them martyrs of a war on terror.
The army has suffered its greatest casualties since the 1973 Middle East war, most of them in the Sinai Peninsula, where the most heavily armed Islamists are based.
The blood spilt since Mursi's downfall has evoked comparisons with Algeria - a country pitched into a decade of civil war in 1991 when its army aborted an experiment with democracy because Islamists looked set to win power.
But as the attacks spread beyond the Sinai Peninsula, the risks are compounded by the large quantities of weapons smuggled in from neighboring Libya since the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, in a war that saw his arsenals looted by rebels.
"This particular incident shows that the group operating in Mansoura is very organized, well equipped and capable," said Mustapha Kamel Al-Sayid, a professor of politicalscience at Cairo University, referring to the Nile Valley town where Tuesday's attack took place.
"This points to the difficulty of any kind of compromise between the government and Islamist groups."
Analysis: As Egypt hardliners gain, scope for conflict grows| Reuters
