@Indos
First of all thank you for the long and detailed post. Learned a lot.
Indonesia's huge population (fourth most populous nation in the world) along with political stability and a pragmatic economic policy and a neutral political stand (not a part of any political blocs) is what is in Indonesia's favor in terms of economic growth. As the economy improves and the average Indonesia gets richer a domino effect takes place and helps Indonesia emerge as a developed nation sometime in the future.
But what is your real assets is the huge population, mostly youth/young, due to the quick population growth. If you notice only (generally speaking and throughout history) populous nations/entities were economically powerful. Take the future top 3 economies in terms of size. China, USA and India. The 3 most populous nations, not a coincidence if you ask me.
Yes, medium-sized businesses are particularly vulnerable. The government will have a harder time bailing them out compared to the large businesses.
As long as you won't face any recession and the annual growth continues you are in safe hands. Worst case scenario, the journey towards becoming a developed country will just take a bit longer.
Well, I will try my best to answer this.
Current situation
The coronavirus pandemic has impacted our economy badly and recent estimation from World Bank said that Indonesian economic growth will decrease from 5.02 percent (2019) into 2.4 percent this year. With assumption the pandemic can be eliminated in July. The figure will be worst if the outbreak cannot be contained after that month.
Our currency value is also falling and lost 15 % of its value since at the start of pandemic in our country in early March. It is due to many foreign investor in our financial market sell our stock and buy US dollar instead as save heaven investment during any crisis.
Thanks God we can bring back market confident on Rupiah after Central Bank make many actions, like currency swap and Repo line with several countries. Particularly the most significant thing is Repo line for about 60 billion dollar has been given by The Fed that can make our central bank use the money for possible market intervention. This action has made Rupiah become the strongest Asian currency last Week and even Today the strengthening is still happening.
Talking about real sector, I think so far the real sector is still going on despite partial lockdown on several important cities in Indonesia like Jakarta, Bekasi, Depok, and Tanggerang where many business are located. Our business have implement work from home system to keep their operation going on amid partial lockdown. Despite that some business shops are still open and some people still work in the office. It is because we are not implementing strict lock down procedure just like happening in China cities like Wuhan and Beijing.
This can be seen on this news about condition in Jakarta street after fifth days of partial lock down.
Are you well prepared for the decreased of economic growth ?
Many informal sector worker and small business owners are not prepared for this, particularly if the partial lock down policy continues until the end of May. Not enough savings available for such long lock down period, particularly for informal sector workers. Small and medium size businesses will also get huge impact particularly to pay their worker salaries in the condition their shop are closed and their operation are stopped.
Central Government and Local government have promised to give cash for 3 million Jakartan who get the most impact but for some they may not get the money, just like one of street food seller who always passes my house selling meatballs (Bakso). He rely much on workers working in many offices scattered in my neighborhood. With this situation he just said to me that he is fighting for survival in daily basis.
BTW, what are the economic prospects for Indonesia after this coronavirus pandemic?
I can say we have good prospect since this pandemic is not hitting us as severe as happening in China/USA/Italia/France/Iran/Spain/Germany AlhamduliLLAH. And if the death rate and infection rate can still be controlled and not more than current figure, I believe Indonesia economy can still survive this year. And if the outbreak can even be contained and stopped within 2-3 months from now, our economy will likely to grow at 2.4 % this year as World Bank had estimated.
It's been awhile man, I've been busy with personal life/school, was all disrupted by this virus since they cancelled classes as soon as one case in one our Universities was found. Our state, Michigan, has been hit pretty hard and we rank in third place after New Jersey and New York. Sort of not surprising since the automotive companies are based here and we have lots of people who travel to California/Florida/New York/etc.... Although it looks worse from the outside. If you or brother
@Indos lived here it still feels relatively normal. It only feels off when you go shopping for essentials like groceries or technology, everyone with masks and they limit each family to 3 members only.
I had to get a computer for school and there was no in store shopping where I got it from. You had to wait in a line then be admitted to parking lot then wait to get your order brought to you.
However, the good news is our cases are starting to flatten and decrease on a daily basis. Our death toll is going up because those who were admitted into hospitals weeks ago are no longer able to fight off the virus unfortunately. People are walking/jogging/biking more than usual since they're so bored indoors.
Otherwise the biggest worry is economy wise it is hitting many businesses badly and people are hoping they can get back to work soon. I also do know some people who got the virus and I believe they have fully recovered by now. They aren't young either. I do know relatives of people that have died from it. I hope you are safe, are you in Europe still or Saudi Arabia? My only worry for Arab nations is if people go splurging for groceries one day before Ramadan and contribute to a big spark of cases that way. I'm hoping they have a plan for all Muslim nations too, I haven't seen anything yet.
I will be doing my family's Ramadan shopping early on probably later this weekend. Also
@Indos and
@Slav Defence hope you guys are doing well.
And everyone else in this section @bruszm ,
@camelguy,
@HannibalBarca
Hope your relatives are doing well brother, thankfully Utah has been spared so far of a big outbreak, hopefully it remains that way. Yes that is true as well, those jobs have good job security going for them. People mostly being hit are those with small businesses that aren't considered essential for consumers and people with more standard minimum wage jobs.
Not been very busy on PDF either outside of "writing sprees" in the span of 24-48 hours like my recent one, lol.
Great to see you around here again, brother. Even if I am gone from PDF, I would fine solace in you representing the Arab perspective here from time to time, lol. We are short on numbers after all.
That is good to hear. Europe seems to have been hit far worse than the US compared to per capita deaths and number of infected people per capita as can be seen by the statistics.
Yes, it seems that the curve is flattening itself. I think that the worst will be our in late May if people and governments continue where they left. A vaccine will probably not occur before next year, is my guess at least. Some rumors about September being the month and let us hope that.
Actually such economic crisis, are often great opportunities for investments and it is often a positive thing for the youth who is about to establish himself/herself economically as housing prices etc. are skydiving. If you have a relatively high-paying job, you can check advantage of the "chaos".
As you write, the crisis is a curse for established businesses and people with large assets.
I am currently in Europe due to work obligations with extended family. KSA has imposed more strict measures than most European nations and so far there are some 5000 cases (with over 120.000 tested) and less than 80 deaths (last time I checked).
I do worry about a second wave and for Ramadan and Umrah pilgrims. By then I do hope/pray that things have calmed down. The problem with KSA is that it is a transportation/transit hub and home to people from literally every country. We have many African citizens as well (expats and illegal workers too) who might be trying to reach KSA long after the virus calms down and as we know, African nations might be particularly hard hit due to the bad/lacking health care infrastructure.
My advice is to take it calm, spend time with family and loved ones, call family in Palestine and elsewhere (I have been talking a lot on the phone with relatives, almost on a daily basis, lol, which is a very good thing in such unusual times) and to focus on your university studies/college as well as prayers and things that you wanted to do but never got time for.
Anyway as you grow older, it is natural that forum/online/social media participation diminishes.
