Another Cold War at the Gates-A Strategic Calculus for National Security of Pakistan

[Shakir Ahmad Shahid]

Another Cold War at the Gates-A Strategic Calculus for National Security of Pakistan

Pakistan must observe the hologram of cold war from its all angles and on an evolving basis. Pakistan needs to take into consideration all possible scenarios from start to end and should adopt a dynamical strategy accordingly by keeping its national interests on forefront. Without forgetting the ingrained animosity of Hindutva minds toward her very existence, Pakistan needs to be sober and calculated in her approach to various situations and opportunities, and must not get allured to venture into any kinetic action in haste.

Doklaam and Ladakh incidents are nothing less than a chapter break in the strategic landscape between India and PR China. It’s fundamental redefinition of the nature of Sino-Indian “old normal”. It should be remembered that neither details of the incidents are important nor comparison of military powers. Neither does it carry any significance that they both countries have disengaged. What most important is that Asia has entered into a new strategic epoch with the start of active rivalry between two neighboring Asian giants.

In contrast to Korea, Vietnam and finally Afghanistan which were the theaters of previous cold war the theaters for this new cold war are the frozen heights of Himalaya and the deep blue waters of Indian and Pacific Oceans. Though any imminent full scale escalation in kinetic domains is not predicted; however, now onward the possibility of limited skirmishes has increased manifold. By all calculations it's the start of another cold war, and unfortunately again at the gates of Pakistan who is still struggling to clean the spilled out mess created by the previous cold war.

Given the deterministic effect of Indian geography and its history on psychology of Indian strategists India will adopt a confrontational mode though gradually and silently. And tussle between two Asian countries flanking great Himalaya would keep increasing silently or violently. It’s expected that Ladakh clash would exert deep bearing on Indian strategic approach toward various regional and global actors. A lot of political, diplomatic, economic and strategic maneuvers shall be happening at enhanced speed and countries shall get pushed willingly or unwillingly to various alignments and alliances.

It appears that the Doklaam-Ladakh duo would start a process of auto-catalysis, wherein one of the products of the reaction acts as a catalyst to speed up the pace of reaction, in various directions. Where drifting of domestic political power to Hindutva hardliners in India would serve as a catalyzing factor is hardening of Indian foreign policy toward PR China and Pakistan there the cold war environment would further augment the grip of Hindu nationalists on internal power politics. Hindutva (hinduness) philosophy would become even more pervasive in the social fabric of Indian society and the breathing space for minorities and the enlightened minds shall get reduced further.

Ironically a large part of the non-territorial strategic calculus between PR China and India would revolve around Pakistan. Additionally not only a major part of overall strategic maneuvers shall be made in close vicinity of Pakistan but the approach of many regional and international players toward Pakistan would also get modulated by the evolving strategic equations between principal players. And above all in this cold war every participant would be playing half of the game on the table and rest half off the table so Pakistan should also adopt the same in currency.

Pakistan must observe the hologram of cold war from its all angles and on an evolving basis. Pakistan needs to take into consideration all possible scenarios from start to end and should adopt a dynamical strategy accordingly by keeping its national interests on forefront. Without forgetting the ingrained animosity of Hindutva minds toward her very existence, Pakistan needs to be sober and calculated in her approach to various situations and opportunities, and must not get allured to venture into any kinetic action in haste.

In the weaponry domain India would not only develop but acquire a lot of modern military platforms. Again without getting trapped into an adversarial swirl and an armed race, Pakistan must acquire critical military platforms essential for maintaining a credible deterrence on continental and maritime fronts both. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Junagarh and Sir Creek are integral and unalienable part of Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Pakistan must keep pressing her claim on all international forums.

By adopting a new approach toward Pakistan by practically abandoning the policy of “strategic restraint” India has already established a new normal. Hence Indian deep state might contemplate for any attempt to restore her molested image on international and national level hence Pakistan should remain prepared to respond befittingly to any kind of misadventure. In a sense this cold war shall afford a breathing space to Pakistan if moved cautiously hence Pakistan should utilize this crisis in best possible way.

 

[Joe Shearer]

By adopting a new approach toward Pakistan by practically abandoning the policy of “strategic restraint” India has already established a new normal.

Without endorsing the bellicosity of the present Indian government, one is forced to ask: did this policy of strategic restraint do any good?

Why is it that Pakistan, and Pakistanis, are only now discovering to their surprise and that of nobody else that they were faced by a non-interventionist, strategically restrained neighbour?

Extending it forward, does Pakistan, and do Pakistanis, seriously understand that even this present bellicosity is immature and infantile, and is the policy of a party and a way of thinking that has no strategic understanding and no means of translating their ridiculous territorial claims and revanchist supremacy claims, and that if the situation changes for the worse, India's neighbours will be left regretting even this as having been a waypoint that was still reasonable easy to deal with?

Has there been ever at any time an urge to exercise strategic restraint on the part of the Pakistani deep state, its spokespersons, and the Pakistani citizenry at large?

 

[saiyan0321]

Tough questions.

Without endorsing the bellicosity of the present Indian government, one is forced to ask: did this policy of strategic restraint do any good?

Here is what it did. It kept the conflict to the minimum however now both sides are engaging in such which will only escalate the situation even more and due to this there were moments where peace seemed almost achievable but now it will not happen and cant blame but peace is no longer necessary nor restraint.

I am also afraid that our northern neighbor didnt help the situation.

Why is it that Pakistan, and Pakistanis, are only now discovering to their surprise and that of nobody else that they were faced by a non-interventionist, strategically restrained neighbour?

They are not discovering it at all. The people maybe but India was counted upon to be restrained in out war planning. You studied 1965 war and how India restraint was the central focal point of bhutto and Ayub whereas only Akhtar malik was able to see that such restrains dont exist in a war. When the 1971 situation was happening, we counted upon our neighbor to showcase restraint when we opened the western front to ease the eastern front. So our strategic thinkers always counted upon India and its restraint. This isnt a joke nor sarcasm. Your restraint was part of our war plans and whenever India retaliated, it always surprised us. It surprised us at the end of Gibraltar, it surprised us at the end of grandslam and it surprised us at Kargil as well. Even the skirmish of 2019 was a surprise as well. Our strategic thinkers knew, our people didnt till we started claiming that we are restraint now and Modi, unlike India of past is foaming from the mouth and wants our blood like never before so let us unite against this threat. Do you see where i am going with this?

Extending it forward, does Pakistan, and do Pakistanis, seriously understand that even this present bellicosity is immature and infantile, and is the policy of a party and a way of thinking that has no strategic understanding and no means of translating their ridiculous territorial claims and revanchist supremacy claims, and that if the situation changes for the worse, India's neighbours will be left regretting even this as having been a waypoint that was still reasonable easy to deal with?

We understand that today its hot air and tomorrow it may not be. We know this very well and the situation is now beyond the point of no return so let us prepare for now

Has there been ever at any time an urge to exercise strategic restraint on the part of the Pakistani deep state, its spokespersons, and the Pakistani citizenry at large?

Pakistani citizenry is not the problem. Believe me, they always though that they were restraint and those that knew, cautioned restraint. We showed restraint when we didnt help our tribal brethren and the Azad forces in 1947 however our restraint has always stemmed from another fact.

dont look at the title but give it a read

Here's Why Pakistan Cannot Liberate Kashmir

What the people of Pakistan need to understand is that the Pakistani military is a professional force which works and builds itself upon a specific doctrine.

nayadaur.tv

 

[SQ8]

Tough questions.



Here is what it did. It kept the conflict to the minimum however now both sides are engaging in such which will only escalate the situation even more and due to this there were moments where peace seemed almost achievable but now it will not happen and cant blame but peace is no longer necessary nor restraint.

I am also afraid that our northern neighbor didnt help the situation.



They are not discovering it at all. The people maybe but India was counted upon to be restrained in out war planning. You studied 1965 war and how India restraint was the central focal point of bhutto and Ayub whereas only Akhtar malik was able to see that such restrains dont exist in a war. When the 1971 situation was happening, we counted upon our neighbor to showcase restraint when we opened the western front to ease the eastern front. So our strategic thinkers always counted upon India and its restraint. This isnt a joke nor sarcasm. Your restraint was part of our war plans and whenever India retaliated, it always surprised us. It surprised us at the end of Gibraltar, it surprised us at the end of grandslam and it surprised us at Kargil as well. Even the skirmish of 2019 was a surprise as well. Our strategic thinkers knew, our people didnt till we started claiming that we are restraint now and Modi, unlike India of past is foaming from the mouth and wants our blood like never before so let us unite against this threat. Do you see where i am going with this?


We understand that today its hot air and tomorrow it may not be. We know this very well and the situation is now beyond the point of no return so let us prepare for now


Pakistani citizenry is not the problem. Believe me, they always though that they were restraint and those that knew, cautioned restraint. We showed restraint when we didnt help our tribal brethren and the Azad forces in 1947 however our restraint has always stemmed from another fact.

dont look at the title but give it a read

Here's Why Pakistan Cannot Liberate Kashmir

What the people of Pakistan need to understand is that the Pakistani military is a professional force which works and builds itself upon a specific doctrine.

nayadaur.tv

I have to disagree with the assertion in the article that the PA has shown professional restraint during its conflicts. If the whole idea was to stay below a threshold and get desired results then plainly the understanding of those thresholds was extremely flawed and clearly not an indication of professionalism in terms of strategic thinking.

Be it Gibraltar or Kargil , trying to sneakily achieve strategic goals under the idea that “x” line will never be crossed by the enemy shows a very poor understanding of the enemy mentality and their compulsions.
So if we are to go and claim that the enemy has us mistaken for warmongering fanatics then we need to rethink our false duality on first claiming that our enemy is a hegemonic power and then acting completely opposite to that assumption.

Our strategic thinkers need to decide now what applies to our enemy - is it an overall hegemonic power looking to expand aggressively or an overstretched military trying to maintain its borders and willing to defend them but no more?

I would think it leaned towards the latter prior to the current regime and is now transforming itself into the former but with a serious detriment of overconfidence in its abilities and underestimating its neighbor’s responses. It is true that India wished to create “Bangladeshs” out of Pakistan since the 65 conflict but not without finding serious loopholes in their plan even after careful planning. That also required leader the likes of Manekshaw/Indra or Sunderji/Rajiv at the military level which aren’t exactly hanging off mango trees to pick out.
The Pakistani side has had malignant or imbalanced leadership in all verticals in place for the majority of its history since Ghulam Mohammad which has undermined merit and lack of purpose. So either profile isn’t a perfect fit.

In a twist of irony, I would say that India used to be a better version of what Pakistanis turning into today and is turning into what Pakistan used to be in some aspects.

Either way, it doesn’t bode well for entire region overall.

 

[saiyan0321]

I have to disagree with the assertion in the article that the PA has shown professional restraint during its conflicts. If the whole idea was to stay below a threshold and get desired results then plainly the understanding of those thresholds was extremely flawed and clearly not an indication of professionalism in terms of strategic thinking.

Be it Gibraltar or Kargil , trying to sneakily achieve strategic goals under the idea that “x” line will never be crossed by the enemy shows a very poor understanding of the enemy mentality and their compulsions.
So if we are to go and claim that the enemy has us mistaken for warmongering fanatics then we need to rethink our false duality on first claiming that our enemy is a hegemonic power and then acting completely opposite to that assumption.

Our strategic thinkers need to decide now what applies to our enemy - is it an overall hegemonic power looking to expand aggressively or an overstretched military trying to maintain its borders and willing to defend them but no more?

I would think it leaned towards the latter prior to the current regime and is now transforming itself into the former but with a serious detriment of overconfidence in its abilities and underestimating its neighbor’s responses. It is true that India wished to create “Bangladeshs” out of Pakistan since the 65 conflict but not without finding serious loopholes in their plan even after careful planning. That also required leader the likes of Manekshaw/Indra or Sunderji/Rajiv at the military level which aren’t exactly hanging off mango trees to pick out.
The Pakistani side has had malignant or imbalanced leadership in all verticals in place for the majority of its history since Ghulam Mohammad which has undermined merit and lack of purpose. So either profile isn’t a perfect fit.

In a twist of irony, I would say that India used to be a better version of what Pakistanis turning into today and is turning into what Pakistan used to be in some aspects.

Either way, it doesn’t bode well for entire region overall.

Well the idea was to have the people eased into this understanding that they have grave misconceptions about the military might of Pakistan and the more blunt you get, the less people will believe it and will choose to ignore it. Besides when mentioning Pakistan army, if you be to blunt, nobody will publish the article and the author received his fair share of mails from patriots.


However i would disagree. The professionalism it has displayed was the understanding of its own capabilities and limitations. Many times in history, we have seen countries enter into a war without understanding their own military might and pay dearly for such misadventures. The Pakistani army was well aware of its military might and limitations and this is also a from of professionalism. The problems comes that they do not understand the military thinking and might of their opponents and more often then not presume the best case scenario as the most probable scenario when it is the least likely one but that would be strategic and tactical unprofessionalism just like their unprofessional behavior in terms of involvement in politics.

Ofcourse it does and this is why i answered joe as well that we always counted on their restraint and was shocked by it when the restraint was not shown. Heck in our history books and Pakistan studies books and in schools the 1965 Indian opening of the front at Lahore is seen as a dishonorable, cheat and betrayal. Such was our faith on their restraint that when we they threw it aside, we saw it as a betrayal of trust. This form is thinking is downright foolish and absolutely incompetent however it doesnt change the fact that we were well aware of our own capabilities and while we may have said stuff like 'one pakistani is worth 10 indians' to boost morale, however we never sent in military offensives with that thinking nor did we leave our defenses so open that the strategic were thinking that 1 pakistan is worth 10 indians and in a defensive position, the opposition needs 3 times the men so on a defensive sector one pakistani is worth 10x3=30 Indians. We never did that so we had a sense of what we could do and this is why we always tried to avoid India on the open battle.

I get your point that by doing so, by making plans on assumptions that the enemy is chained is a display of unprofessional strategic and tactical thinking.

Absolutely, they need to do that and decide whether the enemy is restraint or hegemonic. You witness blunders when there is a lack of clarity in strategic thinking and this is a display of that and post doing of such, make proper plans in accordance to it because as the Sino-India conflict rages on, India will be forced to increase its capabilities, capabilities which can be used against us as well and if it becomes the former, we are in deep trouble and the military will find itself stretched and outmatched and will have to change its doctrine for example the current doctrine severely counts on international intervention in time of war however what happens if that intervention does not come? Alot of our current doctrine is also based on best case scenarios where the situation is slowly turning towards the worst case scenario.

No it doesnt. It doesnt bode well at all. militarization of the region is slowly increasing and the belligerence nature of states is rising and i am not blind to what the Chinese are doing as well. China's hostility is playing a vital role in this as well. The region is being covered in oil and if this continues then there will come a day when a single light, will inflame the region. Hopefully i will be dead by then.

 

[Joe Shearer]

we started claiming that we are restraint now and Modi, unlike India of past is foaming from the mouth and wants our blood like never before so let us unite against this threat. Do you see where i am going with this?

Sadly and fearfully, yes.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Posts #3, 4 and 5 give me hope that there is sensibility and balance within Pakistan; my fear is that it has been gradually been eroded in India. Both sides are careening towards a mental state where all restraint is cast off, and only the most rash and intemperate judgement is displayed on both sides.

I am hopeful that I will be off the premises even sooner than @saiyan0321, and hope that my child and my grandson will be safely away from South Asia by the time that real trouble ensues. It is my hope that this will not happen immediately.

 

[saiyan0321]

Posts #3, 4 and 5 give me hope that there is sensibility and balance within Pakistan; my fear is that it has been gradually been eroded in India. Both sides are careening towards a mental state where all restraint is cast off, and only the most rash and intemperate judgement is displayed on both sides.

More than you know, less than it should be. The February conflict, when it happened, i was at rewaz garden annexi 311 data gunj bakh town lahore. Some junkies were there and we were getting rid of them so the entire neighborhood was there including the laborers and the theekedar and the neighbors. Mid day lunch we had removed the junkies and were sitting on the charpaye of the mazdoors. About 20 people including the imam of the RG masjid, the theekedar, the taxi driver that was parked near there and the neighbors, all were there discussing what had happened. Lets just say you would have loved to be there joe. The conversation ranged from a fine retaliation to why wasnt the military ready for it before, the 'jernail' are useless and corrupt, to ofcourse they would send in planes, you are firing artillery everyday, giving equal answer, they are there to fight too after all. If you piss them off, they would fight and now the situation is about to enter into war. In that entire contrasting discussion of different opinion nobody called anybody a traitor, happily discussed and then said good wishes and left to their own work. The unanimous thought was that the elite are fighting while us innocent people and poor soldiers are dying. I can show you the FIR that i cut against the junkies if you dont believe me, the date is around that time. I am not saying things are all rosy but they are definitely not as dark as posters here would have you show.

I am hopeful that I will be off the premises even sooner than @saiyan0321, and hope that my child and my grandson will be safely away from South Asia by the time that real trouble ensues. It is my hope that this will not happen immediately.

Thats a dark thought joe. Lets pray that we all live good lives and the situation gets under control. Otherwise the rich are going to board the planes and leave, and we will be left here alone trying to douse the fire and burning in it.

 

[Joe Shearer]

More than you know, less than it should be. The February conflict, when it happened, i was at rewaz garden annexi 311 data gunj bakh town lahore. Some junkies were there and we were getting rid of them so the entire neighborhood was there including the laborers and the theekedar and the neighbors. Mid day lunch we had removed the junkies and were sitting on the charpaye of the mazdoors. About 20 people including the imam of the RG masjid, the theekedar, the taxi driver that was parked near there and the neighbors, all were there discussing what had happened. Lets just say you would have loved to be there joe. The conversation ranged from a fine retaliation to why wasnt the military ready for it before, the 'jernail' are useless and corrupt, to ofcourse they would send in planes, you are firing artillery everyday, giving equal answer, they are there to fight too after all. If you piss them off, they would fight and now the situation is about to enter into war. In that entire contrasting discussion of different opinion nobody called anybody a traitor, happily discussed and then said good wishes and left to their own work. The unanimous thought was that the elite are fighting while us innocent people and poor soldiers are dying. I can show you the FIR that i cut against the junkies if you dont believe me, the date is around that time. I am not saying things are all rosy but they are definitely not as dark as posters here would have you show.


Thats a dark thought joe. Lets pray that we all live good lives and the situation gets under control. Otherwise the rich are going to board the planes and leave, and we will be left here alone trying to douse the fire and burning in it.

May your auspicious words come true!

तुम्हारे मुँह में घी शक्कर
اپنے منہ میں گھی چینی

 

[jaibi]

A good attempt; however, if you want it to be a full article then please elaborate more on your points and provide some references or citations.

Another Cold War at the Gates-A Strategic Calculus for National Security of Pakistan

Pakistan must observe the hologram of cold war from its all angles and on an evolving basis. Pakistan needs to take into consideration all possible scenarios from start to end and should adopt a dynamical strategy accordingly by keeping its national interests on forefront. Without forgetting the ingrained animosity of Hindutva minds toward her very existence, Pakistan needs to be sober and calculated in her approach to various situations and opportunities, and must not get allured to venture into any kinetic action in haste.

Doklaam and Ladakh incidents are nothing less than a chapter break in the strategic landscape between India and PR China. It’s fundamental redefinition of the nature of Sino-Indian “old normal”. It should be remembered that neither details of the incidents are important nor comparison of military powers. Neither does it carry any significance that they both countries have disengaged. What most important is that Asia has entered into a new strategic epoch with the start of active rivalry between two neighboring Asian giants.

In contrast to Korea, Vietnam and finally Afghanistan which were the theaters of previous cold war the theaters for this new cold war are the frozen heights of Himalaya and the deep blue waters of Indian and Pacific Oceans. Though any imminent full scale escalation in kinetic domains is not predicted; however, now onward the possibility of limited skirmishes has increased manifold. By all calculations it's the start of another cold war, and unfortunately again at the gates of Pakistan who is still struggling to clean the spilled out mess created by the previous cold war.

Given the deterministic effect of Indian geography and its history on psychology of Indian strategists India will adopt a confrontational mode though gradually and silently. And tussle between two Asian countries flanking great Himalaya would keep increasing silently or violently. It’s expected that Ladakh clash would exert deep bearing on Indian strategic approach toward various regional and global actors. A lot of political, diplomatic, economic and strategic maneuvers shall be happening at enhanced speed and countries shall get pushed willingly or unwillingly to various alignments and alliances.

It appears that the Doklaam-Ladakh duo would start a process of auto-catalysis, wherein one of the products of the reaction acts as a catalyst to speed up the pace of reaction, in various directions. Where drifting of domestic political power to Hindutva hardliners in India would serve as a catalyzing factor is hardening of Indian foreign policy toward PR China and Pakistan there the cold war environment would further augment the grip of Hindu nationalists on internal power politics. Hindutva (hinduness) philosophy would become even more pervasive in the social fabric of Indian society and the breathing space for minorities and the enlightened minds shall get reduced further.

Ironically a large part of the non-territorial strategic calculus between PR China and India would revolve around Pakistan. Additionally not only a major part of overall strategic maneuvers shall be made in close vicinity of Pakistan but the approach of many regional and international players toward Pakistan would also get modulated by the evolving strategic equations between principal players. And above all in this cold war every participant would be playing half of the game on the table and rest half off the table so Pakistan should also adopt the same in currency.

Pakistan must observe the hologram of cold war from its all angles and on an evolving basis. Pakistan needs to take into consideration all possible scenarios from start to end and should adopt a dynamical strategy accordingly by keeping its national interests on forefront. Without forgetting the ingrained animosity of Hindutva minds toward her very existence, Pakistan needs to be sober and calculated in her approach to various situations and opportunities, and must not get allured to venture into any kinetic action in haste.

In the weaponry domain India would not only develop but acquire a lot of modern military platforms. Again without getting trapped into an adversarial swirl and an armed race, Pakistan must acquire critical military platforms essential for maintaining a credible deterrence on continental and maritime fronts both. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Junagarh and Sir Creek are integral and unalienable part of Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Pakistan must keep pressing her claim on all international forums.

By adopting a new approach toward Pakistan by practically abandoning the policy of “strategic restraint” India has already established a new normal. Hence Indian deep state might contemplate for any attempt to restore her molested image on international and national level hence Pakistan should remain prepared to respond befittingly to any kind of misadventure. In a sense this cold war shall afford a breathing space to Pakistan if moved cautiously hence Pakistan should utilize this crisis in best possible way.