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Analysis of Pak Elections, Rigging Charges and New Government's Challenges

RiazHaq

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Pakistanis defied threats of violence and turned out in large numbers to vote in general elections on May 11, 2013. It was massive exercise with 60% of 86 million registered voters casting their ballots all across the country to choose members of national and provincial legislatures.

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Results Summary:

Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) emerged as the big winners with over 124 seats in a house of 272 directly-elected members at the national level. Pakistan Peoples' Party suffered heavy losses everywhere except in rural Sindh province. Imran Khan's forecast of PTI tsunami did not quite materialize but his party still emerged as a strong challenger with 27 seats, almost as many National Assembly seats as the much older and better established Pakistan Peoples' Party.

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There are some who argue that PTI and PPP are now irrelevant in the National Assembly. There could be nothing further from the truth! The fact is that PTI in particular is far more relevant now and poses the biggest challenge to Nawaz Sharif. I fully expect Imran Khan to pounce on Sharif if he falls short in solving the many serious crises of security, energy and economy that Pakistan faces today.

Rigging Charges:

There have been rigging charges by losing candidates and parties in a number of constituencies. However, international observers all agree that the elections were by and large free and fair. In its interim report, the European Union, which deployed the largest foreign election observer mission in Pakistan, said the voting at 90% of the polling stations remained ‘satisfactory’.

Elections are never 100% fair anywhere-much less in Pakistan. There were serious questions about President John F. Kennedy's win in Chicago Illinois and George W. Bush's win in Florida but in each case the opponents chose to back down in the larger interest of the country. Unlike Pakistan's May 11 elections in disputed constituencies, the 1960 and the 2000 general elections were very close with the difference of just a few thousand votes.

I hope the rigging claims are peacefully resolved by re-polling in affected polling stations where there is solid evidence of irregularity. It's not in Pakistan's or any of the political parties' best interest to plunge the country into yet another crisis. I hope sanity prevails here. Leaders like IK need to play a role here to calm the situation.

Expectations of Nawaz Sharif's Government:

In his prior stints in government, Mr. Nawaz Sharif managed the economy poorly. Pakistan was nearly bankrupt with about a billion dollars in reserves in 1999. He ran afoul of the powerful military as well as the media and the judges.

Pakistan has changed a lot since 1999 when Mr. Sharif was removed from power. Pakistan has since gone from a low-income to a middle-income country and its economy is now almost 4 times larger. The country has nearly $12 billion in reserves. New power centers have emerged in the form of powerful mass media and assertive judiciary.

Pakistan now faces huge challenges. The state must fight a fierce Taliban insurgency and address crippling energy shortages. It must also revive the economy and increase tax revenues to invest in education, health care and infrastructure.

Summary:

I congratulate the incoming Prime Minister Mr. Nawaz Sharif and his PML (N) party on their victory and I welcome the emergence of PTI as a third powerful force in Pakistani politics. I hope PML leadership is now more experienced and mature and up to the challenge of leading Pakistan out of its current crises of security, energy and economy.

As to Imran Khan's PTI, it has come from nowhere to become almost the second largest party in the National Assembly and the new governing party in KP. It has the potential to transform the future of Pakistan if PTI does well in governing KP and forces change at the center to bring in much needed reforms. It's a big test of PTI and and a great hope for Pakistan.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan Elections 2013 Results; Rigging Charges; New Government's Challenges

Here's a video discussion related to this post:

 
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This is Nawaz Sharif's photo taken during his brief stint as an actor in one of Rangeela's movies. Flopped in films and became a politician under Gen Zia's patronage. His father Mian Muhammad Sharif started him in the business. However, this proved a disaster. As a second option Mian Muhammad Sharif set him up with Pakistani actor Saeed Khan Rangeela to get him into acting (something which Nawaz Sharif wanted). A few days later Saeed Khan Rangeela sent his regrets to Mian Muhammad Sharif saying that his son was too dumb for acting and movie industry.
 
Excerpt of a blog post in New York Times on Burgers (PTI supporters) vs Bun Kababs (MQM supporters) in recent elections in Karachi, Pakistan:

In the run-up to the second vote, the media predicted a showdown between the city’s burgers and bun kebabs. Gastronomic comments ranged from the frivolous to the frightening. Ayesha Tammy Haq, a broadcast journalist, tweeted, “All this burger-bun kebab talk is nonsense. After this election I am foie gras to your chopped liver.” A senior M.Q.M., meanwhile, warned that outright violence between burger and bun kebab could erupt, dividing the city. Such language highlights the continuing relevance of class divisions even after a campaign that focused on gender, youth and ethno-linguistic identity to mobilize voters. It is no laughing matter. On the eve of the second vote on Sunday, Zahra Shahid Hussain, a senior P.T.I. leader, was shot and killed outside her house in Karachi. Although the media reported that her death occurred during a burglary, Khan has said that the leader of M.Q.M., Altaf Hussain, is responsible. The burger vs. bun kebab divide has turned deadly.

In Pakistan, Even Jibes About Food Suggest Violent Underlying Divisions - NYTimes.com
 
Is Nawaz Sharif a graceful victor? Does this have echoes of Jaag Punjabi Jaag?

LAHORE: Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif says people of Punjab have voted on rational basis while of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa have voted on emotional basis.

He was addressing his party workers in a ceremony to commemorate atomic explosions carried out by Pakistan on May 28, 1998 during Sharif’s previous tenure....

Future PM Nawaz Sharif thinks KPK voted on emotional and Punjab on logical basis | The News Tribe
 
This reminds me of the statement of the caretaker home minister Malik Habib who endorsed PML(N) when he said last month that "Mian Nawaz Sharif is the only national leader and he wants to do something for the country. And I will vote for Khaqaan Abbasi (PMLN candidate)".

It's quite possible that Nawaz Sharif's "Jaag Punjabi Jaag" was aimed at the bureaucracy and the judiciary to get a heavy mandate for N League at the expense of Imran Khan's PTI and Bhuttos' PPP.
 
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