America’s New Nightmare

[muse]

zraver


The thread is not about Pakistan, but about the US playing the innocent - a tiresome game for those who have been observing US policy in SW Asia.

Nevertheless, I do take your comments and I hope to offer some in return that I hope shed light on some aspects you find confusing, a more complex persepective can be useful :

The GoP keeps attempting to talk its way out of the FATA/SWAT problem only to see the Taliban gain more room like an aggressive infection in a patient that stops taking his medicine too soon. This implies that the GoP doe snot understand the enemy it faces. With its radical version of Islam and Sharia its OK to make truces and never intend to honor them

I realize that many presently in service and some retired US personnel seem to have a real problem understanding that politics in Pakistan is a reality - Pakistan is N times more complex than Afghanistan or for that matter, Iraq.

And it is an element of COIN, to attempt to create as many fissures as possible among the antogonists as possible and since at the heart of insurgency are political demands, satisfying them if possible is prudent.

However; you are exactly right that when in the past the Pakistani governments have tried to end armed hostilities, the insurgents have used that time to further strengthen themselves -- you are exactly right that Pakistan have misjudged who the insurgents actually are and what their motivation is - their political demands consists of Pakistan going to hell, forthwith.

The only large source of ideologues fighting for the Taliban come from Pakistan and see it more of a Pashtun v invader issue and not as an Islam v crusader issue.

The Taliban depends on 3 things to remain in the war. 1. Refuge in Pakistan. 2. money from the narcotics trade and 3. Pakistani Pashtuns. If any of those 3 can be unraveled the Taliban is likely to collapse as an effective force and be reduced to the level of the Peruvian Shining path. Capable of very bloody mass causality events but unable to take and hold anything but their own *** as they grab it with both hands to kiss it goodbye

I would suggest to you that you may also add that besides being a Pashtun v Inader problem, it is also an inter-ethnic and a civil war issue as well - regardless of the merits or lack thereof of US presence in Afghanistan, the US opted for those who assisted it, that meant automatic alienation and taking a side in a conflict marked by severe inter-ethnic hostility, Pashtun in Northern Afghanistan, to this day, suffer from this, whereas in the East and South, they do not.

I also very much appreciate the fact you seem not to understand, that out of the approx. 42 million Pashtun in the world, the vast majority of them live in Pakistan -- Do you think this might have political implications for the Pakistani government and public perceptions????? Well, of course it does, US observers would do well to be more sensitive to this FACT. See, Zraver, Pakistan is fast changing, in the sense that gearter numbers and awareness of ethnicity, it is bound to have political and strategic implications --- and US friends would do well to counsel their Afghan satrap to understand this dynamic better.

To your point that Talib are taking full advantage of FATA - without a doubt this is so - however; as I point to readers in earlier post and perhaps some US interlocutor will deal with it and respond - the US/Mexico border is very much like the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, on both sides of the border larger populations of Mexicans live their lives and much illegal activity also takes place at the border including, perhaps the largest illegal movement of peoples, entire population groups, much drugs, guns, etc; etc; -- How well have the US been able to police that border?? Would it be fair to suggest that this failure to police the US-Mexico border is a reflection of US government decision to facilitate illegal activity across it's own border??? Would it even be sane to ask this -- and yet oru US friends seem not even to allow for a second this same idea and in the same breath accuse Pakistan of aiding an insurgency that is grinding up it's best and brightest -- either our US friends are just plain dumb, thich as a brick or ....well, that's the hard part and much depends on how the US see their role, in the time frame their physical presence allows.

One area where I do fault the U>S is in its approach to the poppy problem. Its the source of the Taliban's money and is an easy fix. The US can afford to buy every poppy Afghanistan can grow, or even more effectively pay the farmers more than the Taliban can match for growing wheat. This would be the most effective way to choke off the biggest part of the Taliban's money supply. Yet the US doesn't do it, and I do not know why.

Sir, you do some research, you will find that the EU (politics) was against this effort and at the same time US commanders dikd not want this job.

 

[Thomas]

its not aobut public perception, but about real action. The GoP keeps attempting to talk its way out of the FATA/SWAT problem only to see the Taliban gain more room like an aggressive infection in a patient that stops taking his medicine too soon. This implies that the GoP doe snot understand the enemy it faces. With its radical version of Islam and Sharia its OK to make truces and never intend to honor them. Thus diplomacy will never work unless from a position of strength. Eradicate the Taliban in SWAT no matter the cost, the diplomacy in FATA will go easier because it will establish the GoP as an effective power.



The US has undertaken taken a critical review of its polices and the recent push by the Marines to kick the Taliban out and keep them out of Helmand via moving small units into the and among the population is such a result. The Taliban is stuck in the mountains unless it can move among the population. By securing the population you deny the Taliban a huge condition it needs for victory.

people in the US and on this site assume the Taliban is a popular insurgency. Its not, those fighter sin its ranks from Afghanistan are either loyal first to their own tribal chiefs or are hired from the local strong man. The only large source of ideologues fighting for the Taliban come from Pakistan and see it more of a Pashtun v invader issue and not as an Islam v crusader issue.

The Taliban depends on 3 things to remain in the war. 1. Refuge in Pakistan. 2. money from the narcotics trade and 3. Pakistani Pashtuns. If any of those 3 can be unraveled the Taliban is likely to collapse as an effective force and be reduced to the level of the Peruvian Shining path. Capable of very bloody mass causality events but unable to take and hold anything but their own *** as they grab it with both hands to kiss it goodbye.

One area where I do fault the U>S is in its approach to the poppy problem. Its the source of the Taliban's money and is an easy fix. The US can afford to buy every poppy Afghanistan can grow, or even more effectively pay the farmers more than the Taliban can match for growing wheat. This would be the most effective way to choke off the biggest part of the Taliban's money supply. Yet the US doesn't do it, and I do not know why.

they would take the money and still grow it. To not grow it makes them a target of the Taliban since drugs is the mains source of money for the Taliban.

 

[muse]

I wanted to illustrate a point by posting these two articles together:

Afghan Taliban under tremendous pressure’

* Clinton says Pak-Afghan border facilitating clandestine movement of extremists

WASHINGTON: The Taliban are under “tremendous pressure” in Afghanistan after US forces stepped up their war – with Washington touting a new strategy to root out extremism - United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Sunday.

“The Taliban that are, as I believe strongly, part of a kind of terrorist syndicate with Al Qaeda at the centre, are now under tremendous pressure, and I think that’s in America’s national interest,” Clinton said on the NBC show “Meet the Press”.

In addition to boosting the US military presence in the war-ravaged nation, the US secretary of state said, “Importantly, we’ve seen the Pakistani government and military really step up, which had not happened to the extent it has now.”

Facilitation: Clinton cited the “permeable” border between Pakistan and Afghanistan as facilitating the clandestine movements of extremist cells in the region where Washington and its allies believe Al Qaeda operates terrorism-training camps.

The top US diplomat said that six months into the administration of President Barack Obama and after a comprehensive review of US strategy in Afghanistan, Washington determined that “in order to really go after Al Qaeda to uproot and to destroy it, we had to take on those who were giving the Al Qaeda leadership safe haven”.

Describing the approach as a “new strategy”, Clinton said in order for the US military intervention to be effective, they have committed to help empower local Afghan communities to defend themselves once the areas were cleared of the Taliban

McChrystal visits Pakistan to allay Helmand operation concerns

RAWALPINDI: The US commander of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, Lt General Stanley McChrystal, visited Pakistan on Sunday to address the army’s concerns over a possible Taliban spill-over from the Helmand operation.

Sources said McChrystal arrived in Rawalpindi around 11am and was driven to the General Headquarters to meet Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani. The two sides held talks over the on-going operations in Helmand. The ISAF commander assured Gen Kayani that the US was aware of the possible crossing of Taliban into Pakistan.

“We are taking all steps to stop infiltration of fleeing militants into Balochistan and are ready to cooperate for effective border control and avoid illegal crossings,” the source said. sajjad malik

This continual expression of mutual suspicion is a drag on both US and Pakistan.

 

[waraich66]

its not aobut public perception, but about real action. The GoP keeps attempting to talk its way out of the FATA/SWAT problem only to see the Taliban gain more room like an aggressive infection in a patient that stops taking his medicine too soon. This implies that the GoP doe snot understand the enemy it faces. With its radical version of Islam and Sharia its OK to make truces and never intend to honor them. Thus diplomacy will never work unless from a position of strength. Eradicate the Taliban in SWAT no matter the cost, the diplomacy in FATA will go easier because it will establish the GoP as an effective power.



The US has undertaken taken a critical review of its polices and the recent push by the Marines to kick the Taliban out and keep them out of Helmand via moving small units into the and among the population is such a result. The Taliban is stuck in the mountains unless it can move among the population. By securing the population you deny the Taliban a huge condition it needs for victory.

people in the US and on this site assume the Taliban is a popular insurgency. Its not, those fighter sin its ranks from Afghanistan are either loyal first to their own tribal chiefs or are hired from the local strong man. The only large source of ideologues fighting for the Taliban come from Pakistan and see it more of a Pashtun v invader issue and not as an Islam v crusader issue.

The Taliban depends on 3 things to remain in the war. 1. Refuge in Pakistan. 2. money from the narcotics trade and 3. Pakistani Pashtuns. If any of those 3 can be unraveled the Taliban is likely to collapse as an effective force and be reduced to the level of the Peruvian Shining path. Capable of very bloody mass causality events but unable to take and hold anything but their own *** as they grab it with both hands to kiss it goodbye.

One area where I do fault the U>S is in its approach to the poppy problem. Its the source of the Taliban's money and is an easy fix. The US can afford to buy every poppy Afghanistan can grow, or even more effectively pay the farmers more than the Taliban can match for growing wheat. This would be the most effective way to choke off the biggest part of the Taliban's money supply. Yet the US doesn't do it, and I do not know why.

One more thing i would like to add that talaban love to die but ISAF moto is safety first , always moral of fighting forces is more important then arms and strategy.
Arms captured from Afghan and ISAF army is biggest sourse of income for talaban ,in poppy sale middle man is earning more.

Funding

Security and defense analysts believe that pro-government Taliban are financed and armed by government agencies.

"The pro-government Taliban have no finance problem. They are being fed by the government very well," local sources told IOL.

"However, the anti-government Taliban use every tactic to get finances and arms."

The major such source is Rahdari (corridor) system.

"They provide safe passage to the transporters, and smugglers, who smuggle goods from Iran and Afghanistan to Pakistan. In return, they pay them hefty amounts as taxes," an intelligence official told IOL.

He said smugglers normally use unconventional mountaineer routes, which are almost inaccessible for security forces.

"It's almost impossible for security forces to cover all such routes. If we block one route, they find a new way with the help of local tribesmen or militants, because they don't consider it smuggling. They call it a trade."

The corridor system was also the major source of income for the Taliban government.

The intelligence official claimed the international drug mafia also pays militants to provide them a safe passage.

However, local tribesmen contest the claim.

"This is not true. Yes, they do provide safe passage to goods smugglers but not to narcotics smugglers."

The intelligence official asserts that Al-Qaeda gives money and logistical advice to local militant groups, particularly Baitullah Mehsud.

"Al-Qaeda funds don't always come in cash. They come in different forms. Many Afghan and Pakistani businessmen, mostly settled in the Arab world and harboring sympathy for the cause of Al-Qaeda, are given money to buy high-priced goods like cars. These goods are shipped to Pakistan and sold, often tripling Al-Qaeda's investment," he said.

"The businessmen, with sympathy to Al-Qaeda, take a small cut while the network spreads the wealth among its allies."

South Waziristan is known as a famous route of Afghan trade transit for trade of re-assembled vehicles in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Intelligence sources say different foreign secret agencies are also funding the militant groups.

"They may not know who is funding them, but it is realty that the Indian, Israeli and Afghan agencies are providing them funds, arms and training because they are operating against Pakistani forces," said the intelligence official.

"They are financing militants as they want a permanent unrest in the country raising concern about safety of its nuclear program," he added.

"The tribal belt has become a battlefield for the international secret agencies. I believe this all is part of the Great Game," the official.

"We have proofs that various suicide bombers were trained by Indian intelligence agency RAW at its training camps set up across the border (in Afghanistan)."

Taxes imposed by militant groups are another source of income.

"They have imposed taxes of meager amount on the local residents as they provide protection to them, and are responsible for curbing the crimes in their respective areas."

 

[waraich66]

they would take the money and still grow it. To not grow it makes them a target of the Taliban since drugs is the mains source of money for the Taliban.

Sir,

I dont think so , arms captured from ISAF is biggest sourse of income for talaban.You can buy all these weapons in dara near Peshawar

Estimates of smuggling of goods continued between Pakistan,Afghanistan and Iran and central asia is more then 10 Bill USD. In this smuggling government officials of all countries involved.

Talaban provide safe passage and charge tax and use it againt ISAF forces.

 

[zraver]

they would take the money and still grow it. To not grow it makes them a target of the Taliban since drugs is the mains source of money for the Taliban.

The money for wheat/poppy would in part go to the warlords. Killing the farmers would anger the warlords and tribes and break the Taliban even faster.